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GULF OF THE FARALLONES NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY 2010 Ocean Climate Summit Report: Moving from Knowledge to Action June 3, 2010, San Francisco, California
GULF OF THE FARALLONES NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
2010 Ocean Climate Summit Report: Moving from Knowledge to Action
June 3, 2010, San Francisco, California
Acknowledgements ContentCommitteeChristopherAndrews,CaliforniaAcademyofSciencesMariaBrown,GulfoftheFarallonesNationalMarineSanctuaryMegBurke,CaliforniaAcademyofSciencesTerriGoslinger,CaliforniaAcademyofSciencesKelleyHiggason,GulfoftheFarallonesNationalMarineSanctuaryAaronPope,CaliforniaAcademyofSciencesRyanWyatt,CaliforniaAcademyofSciences OrganizingCommitteeKelleyHiggason,GulfoftheFarallonesNationalMarineSanctuaryAaronPope,CaliforniaAcademyofSciences Marina Psaros, San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve’s Coastal Training Program Bobak Talebi, San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve’s Coastal Training Program
NoteTakersAmyDean,FarallonesMarineSanctuaryAssociationJustinHoll,GulfoftheFarallonesNationalMarineSanctuaryIrina Kogan, GulfoftheFarallonesNationalMarineSanctuary Karen Reyna, GulfoftheFarallonesNationalMarineSanctuary Bobak Talebi, San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve’s Coastal Training ProgramSageTezak,GulfoftheFarallonesNationalMarineSanctuaryChristyWalker,GulfoftheFarallonesNationalMarineSanctuary
LogisticalSupportCandaceBagley,CaliforniaAcademyofSciencesAngelaMinnameyer,GulfoftheFarallonesNationalMarineSanctuary
ReportPreparationKelleyHiggason,GulfoftheFarallonesNationalMarineSanctuary
FacilitatorsJohnGamman,CONCUR,Inc.ScottMcCreary,CONCUR,Inc.RebeccaTuden,CONCUR,Inc.
Sponsors11thHourProjectCaliforniaAcademyofSciencesGulfoftheFarallonesNationalMarineSanctuaryNOAA,OfficeofNationalMarineSanctuariesSan Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve’s Coastal Training Program GulfoftheFarallonesNationalMarineSanctuarywouldalsoliketothankDr.JohnLargier,U.C.Davis,BodegaMarineLaboratoryandGFNMSAdvisoryCouncilmember,forhismorningpresentationofClimateChangeImpacts:GulfoftheFarallonesandCordellBankNationalMarineSanctuaries,alongwiththeadditionalreportpanelists:JudithKildow,NationalOceanEconomicsProgram,DavidReynolds,NationalWeatherService,DavidRevell,PhilipWilliam&Associates,andWilliamSydeman,FarallonInstitute.CoverPhoto:BrianJohnson,GulfoftheFarallonesNationalMarineSanctuary
Table of Contents
Introduction………..………………………………………………...…………….………….1
SummitGoals………………………………………………………………………………….1
SummitObjectives………………………….……………….………………………………1
SummitStructure…………..………………………………………………..…..………….1
BreakoutGroupSummaries…………………………………………………………….1
A)PublicOutreach…………………………….…………………………………1
B)ScienceandInformation………………………………..…………………3
C)InnovationandAdaptation……………………...………………………..4
OverlappingThemes………………………………...…………………………………..…6
NextSteps………………………………...…………………………………………………….6
A)PublicOutreach……………………….………………………………………6
B)ScienceandInformation………..…………………………………………6
C)InnovationandAdaptation……………..…….…………………………..7
Conclusion....………………...………………………………..…………………………….....7
AppendixA:PublicOutreachCaseStudies…………………………….…………9
AppendixB:SummitAgenda…………………………………………………………12
AppendixC:SummitParticipants…………………………………………………..13
AppendixD:ClimateChangeImpacts:GulfoftheFarallonesandCordell
BankNationalMarineSanctuariesExecutiveSummary…..……17
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Introduction Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary(GFNMS), in partnership with California Academyof Sciences, the San Francisco Bay NationalEstuarine Research Reserve’s Coastal TrainingProgram and The 11th Hour Project, held the"Second Biennial Ocean Climate Summit: MovingfromKnowledge toAction" at CaliforniaAcademyof Sciences on June 3, 2010. Invited attendeesincluded scientists, marine resource managers,educators and public relations specialists fromlocal agencies, non‐profit organizations, andacademicinstitutionswhoparticipatedinbreakoutgroupsintheareasofpublicoutreach,scienceandinformation, and innovation and adaptation.GFNMS intends to use the summary of thebreakoutgroupdiscussionsandrecommendationsto:
1) Inform the development of climate changeresearch,education,andmanagementstrategiesfor the GFNMS Ocean Climate Initiative ActionPlan through stakeholder working groups andinternal staff teams. These strategies willidentifyactions thatwillbetakenoverthenext10yearsbyboththesanctuaryandit’spartnersto address the impacts of climate changespecific to the site, its communities, and theregion.
2) Fostercollaborationswithpartnersonclimate–related projects prior to the completion of theActionPlan.
3) Influence institutions and summit participantsto act upon ideas brainstormed during thesummit,andprovidesupportandcredibilityfortheseactions.
4) Share these ideas with the other 13 marinesanctuary and monument sites throughout theNational Marine Sanctuary System to informsimilarcollaborationsattheirsites.
Summit Goal Address climate change impacts within the SanFranciscoBayArea'scoastandoceanenvironmentthrough effective communication of these impactstopublicaudiences,aswellasproductivedialogue
and collaborations amongst local scientists,educators,andmarineresourcemanagers.Summit Objectives • Present and discuss the key findings andrecommendations from the report, “ClimateChange Impacts: Gulf of the Farallones andCordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries”(http://farallones.noaa.gov/eco/climate/climate.html#report).
• Frame a roadmap toward effective commun‐ication of these impacts to the public throughcommon themes, messages, and hope for thefuture.
• Frame methods to promote efficient andeffective communication on issues surroundingclimate change impacts amongst scientists,naturalresourcemanagers,andcommunities.
• Frame strategies to move natural resourcemanagement from planning for today toplanning for the future while faced withuncertainty.
Summit Structure The morning of the summit, over 100 peopleattended the public release of “Climate ChangeImpacts: Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell BankNationalMarineSanctuaries”inthePlanetariumatCalifornia Academyof Sciences, 67 ofwhichweresummit participants. Participants were thenorganized into three breakout groups, led by aprofessional facilitator from CONCUR Inc., eachwithitsownsetoforganizingquestionsdiscussingthe topics of: A) Public Outreach B) Science andInformation,andC)InnovationandAdaptation. Breakout Group Summaries A)PublicOutreachHowcaneducators/medialiaisonsdealwithclimatechange “burn out?” Are there new and innovativewaysthisissuecanbepresented?Howdoweconveythe need to plan for the future and facilitate apersonal connection? How do you create a culturethatunderstandschange?
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EngagingthePublic• Deal with burn out (people feeling over‐whelmed) through the use of positivemessaging.
• Recognizeskepticism/uncertainty.• Elevaterelevancetopeople’slives,especiallyonalocallevel.
• Anticipate multiple levels of understanding fordifferentaudiences.
• Recognizethatcurrentscienceisn’talwaysabletoprovidefinescaleanswers.
• Span the gap between voiced urgency andperceivedchanges(locally).
• Understand that current publishing model cantake 5‐10 years for scientific information toappearinatextbook.
• Involve environmental scientists in the sciencestandards.
• Help the public gain a better sense of how theoceanregulatesclimate.
SciencetoEducationEducators should work to: help the public trustscientists more and get to know them (scientistsare not going to discuss their work withoutacknowledging an element of uncertainty); helpscientists communicate more clearly; and providethe public access to scientists. There is a time lagbetween the discovery of the information anddiffusionofthatinformation.Educatorsneedtodoabetter jobof integratingscientificdiscovery,anddistillinganddiffusingkeymessages.What action dowe want to motivate the public totake?Whatsolutionscanwepresent?ActionofMakingaChoicePromotethe“ActionofMakingaChoice.”Focusonsolutions that are more convenient and lessdifficult as there is human reluctance to makechanges that are viewed as either difficult orinconvenient.What essential message (or messages) on climatechange impacts to the marine environment do wewanttoconveytothepublic?
KeyMessages• “It’shappeningnow”–connectpersonalexperi‐ences with this. Link impacts on the planet toimpacts on the individual; personal impact isthecriticalfactor.
• Highlight shifting baselines through the voicesofour elders; “ourchildrendon’tknowwhat itwas like 50 years ago.” Also highlight positiveshiftingbaselines (i.e., airquality inCalifornia).Give examples of how actions can undonegatives.
• There is no scientific debate; discuss impacts,but walk a fine line between climate changegloom and doom and providing enoughinformationtomotivateaction.
• Avoid using “climate change” or “global warm‐ing,” instead tie to specific issues andpersonalconnections;focusonrealworldimpacts.
What are methods and strategies for conveyingthese messages? What are some key media,partners,andtimeframes?CommunicationMethodsandStrategies• Produce choice‐making tools (like thesustainableseafoodcards)forclimatechange.
• Usesymbolsrather thanwords–thelightbulbisa concrete symbol; solarcell linked toa lightbulbisaverypowerfulsymbol.
• Use more outdoor education, e.g., effects ofclimatechangeontheintertidalzone.
• Convey messages from a venue perspective orangle(fishingpiervs.aquariumvs.museum).
• Tietohumanhealthandsocialjusticeissues.• Convey the distinction between adaptationversusmitigation.
• Recognize we are communicating to diverseaudiences; develop layers with multipleaccessibleentrypoints.
• Promote science literacy (e.g., weather vs.climate).
• Promote “resiliency” of an ecosystem as ametaphor for how other factors influenceclimate change (e.g., in flu season need overallgoodhealthtoberesilient).
• Underscore hazardous events to help highlighturgency.
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• Recognize an important tool is local andcharismaticmegafauna.
• Consider applying lessons learned from the“evolutiondebate”–scientistsstayedoutofthedebate for a long time and media ran withuncertainty stories. Most institutions have an“evolutionstatement,”usethisasamodel.
KeyPartnersInstitutionsneedtocollaboratetoextendthereachof sharedmessages (example: CaliforniaAcademyof Sciences, Aquarium of the Bay, and MontereyBayAquarium).Educatorsneedtoworkwithsocialscientists to address the psychology of riskaversion.CaseStudiesforPublicOutreachThegroupdevelopedanoutlineofpossiblepublicoutreach strategies for three key issues from theClimate Change Impacts Report: 1) observedincrease in sea level; 2) observed northwardshift of key species; and 3) compounding ofeffects with local human activities. The groupalsoidentifiedexpecteddecreaseinseawaterpHasafourthkeyissuebutdidnotdevelopastrategydue to time constraints. See Appendix A for thedetailedstrategies.B)ScienceandInformationWhatgapsinscientificresearchormonitoringneedtobe filled to better understand impactsof climatechangetotheregion’scoastandocean? AddressingGapsinResearch• Conduct fundamental research to understandphysicaloceanicprocessessuchasupwelling.
• Analyze and reference historic datasets; focuseffortsonretrospectiveland‐waterinterface.
• Trackwaterquality:measurechangesinnaturalparameters, such as salinity, pH, temperature,oxygen minimum zones and study how theseaffect ocean noise; characterize impacts ofanthropogenicinfluences(contaminantchangesthat would act as stressors); include presentconditions, past data/samples, future projec‐tions.
• Buildlong‐termdatasets–identifythegreatestneeds and push for funding of these. Manyexisting long‐term data sets still need to beanalyzed. The level of certainty of existingdatasets and the risk associated with anyuncertainty is important in terms of decision‐making.
• Focuson two tracks: long‐termmonitoringandeffective translation of scientific information tothepublic.
• Identifyandtestindicatorsofchange(bioticandabiotic); develop biological indicators through‐out the food web to assess climate changeimpacts; monitor changes in ocean circulation(upwelling, currents, waves, and extremeweather).
• Documentlinkagestoterrestrialenvironments.• Takebenchmark studies ofmarine pollution inCordellBanktoengagescientistsandthepublic–increaseinmarinedebrisoccursafterfloodingincidentsinSanFranciscoBay.
• Social science needs to be part of the conver‐sation.
AddressingGapsinMapping• Delineate shorelines: obtain higher resolutionmapping for sedimentation, shorelines, water‐sheds,etc.; identifypriorityhabitatsforprotec‐tion.
• Map the open ocean: currents (surface andsubsurface);larvalmovement;algalblooms;SanFranciscoBaydischarge;plastic/marinedebris.
• Work to synchronize current methodologiesthatmaynotbecompatible(i.e.,thesameareasaremappedatdifferentresolutions).
• Deal with the challenge of capturing accurateverticaldata.
What scientific information is most needed bymarine resourcemanagers to help them effectivelymanageforfuturechange?MeetingManagementNeeds• Preparehighresolutionshorelinemaps.• Use best practices for both monitoring andadaptation(e.g.,wetlandsversusarmoring).
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• Gatherphysicalmeasurementsforoceanacidifi‐cationandresultingbiologicalresponses.
• Establish benchmarks, good baseline informa‐tionisneeded.
• Produceaccuratebathymetrymaps.• Identifyhighvaluehabitat–e.g.,buildresiliencytoerosionwitheelgrassandshellbeds.
How can we mobilize and incentivize localresearcherstoactivatethisresearchagenda?MotivatingResearch• Proactivelyengagewithuniversityandindepen‐dentresearchers(non‐NOAAcommunity).
• Clearlyconveysanctuarygoalsandneeds.• Provide funding for research and monitoring;buildprojectandfundingcoalitions.
• Provide political support and guidance toelected officials to prioritize public funding forsanctuary/ocean research, monitoring andprotection.
• Request the sanctuary to write letters ofsupport for research that will be conductedwithinthesanctuary.
• Addressakeychallenge–manyfundingmodelssuch as the National Science Foundation don’tfund long‐term monitoring projects or encour‐age retroactive analysis, which is needed formanyexistinglong‐termdatasets.
How can the methods and tools scientists andmarine resource managers currently use tocommunicatewitheachotherbeimprovedupon?ImprovingCommunication• Share information, data, needs, research goalsacrossscientificcommunityandNOAA–sharedinformaticssystems.
• Gatherresearchersandmanagersforsharingofresearch priorities, needs, and findings frombothscientificandmanagementcommunities–annualorbi‐annualinpersonmeetings.
• Build relationshipswithuniversities toencour‐age student internships and graduate researchopportunities.
C)InnovationandAdaptationWhat changes (institutional, economic, etc.) areneeded to encourage and motivate resourcemanagers and communities to address climatechange impacts to the region’s coast and ocean?What time horizons do current planning processesuse? How do these planning efforts deal withuncertainty?Doweneednewplanningparadigms?Ifso,whatmighttheyinclude?LocalPlanning• Resource managers and planners should iden‐tifyanddescribebarrierstoaddressingimpactsin such a way that solutions can also beidentified. Barriers include: public perception;political will at all levels of government; theshort‐term nature of legislative funding; timehorizon incompatibility between effects ofclimatechangeandelectioncycles;theneedfordifferent time‐scales for different types ofplanning (e.g., infrastructure should be 100yearsminimum,whileotheractionsmaybe20‐50yearplanninghorizons);anduncertaintiesinscience(asabarriertoengagingthepublicandresourcemanagers).
• The science of economic valuation of naturalresources is undeveloped, which limits theeffectivenessoflong‐termplans.
• PlannersinHayward,Marin,andMontereyBaycounties are actively working toward identify‐ing adaptation strategies, with varying degreesofstakeholderengagementbasedonwheretheyarein theprocess.Theseeffortscanbeusedasexamples.
What information is needed to apply sciencebasedmanagement decisions to climate change adaptation?SciencebasedManagementDecisions• Assemble downscaled information to connect
local planners with local/regional impactscenarios;SanDiegoadaptationplanningisanexampleofthis.
• Build new or use existing online databases toshare information – Army Corp of Engineershas an internal share site that includes vision
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planning and a Community of Practice; NOAACoastal Services Center has started a publicCommunity of Practice site called CoastalClimate Adaptation (http://collaborate.csc.noaa.gov/climateadaptation).
• Articulate guidelines on how to accept uncer‐tainty,howtoincreasepublicandmediaaccep‐tanceof uncertainty,whatkindof informationresonates with decision makers (who listensandwhy),andwhatmotivateschange.
What methods, strategies, and potential partnersshould be engaged to develop and implementclimate change adaptation plans for the region’scoastandocean?AdaptationMethodsandStrategies• Learnfromusefulprecedentssuchasaffordablehousingandcleanairregulations.
• Support local government to take action, andengage local businesses and Chambers ofCommerce.
• Strengthen the mandate for local governmentsto implement adaptation strategies – providelegislation, funding, and incentives; provideadditionalfundingfromthefederalsectortothelocalsector.
• Implementacommunityandstakeholder‐basedapproach/dialogue that includes governments,industry and the people who are directlyaffected; this creates buy‐in and influencespoliticalwill.
• Identify problems that need innovative solu‐tions;promotegovernment‐industryinteractionto come up with solutions; include industry inscenarioplanning.
• Makeclimatechangerelevanton thelocal level– create scenarioswith local impacts identifiedsuch as water supply, fire hazards, coastalerosion,andintroducedspecies; lookatclimatechange in termsofdiscrete local issuessuchasfisheries (oysters) and infrastructure (sewageservices,roads,coastaldevelopment)impacts.
• Tieclimatechangetoissuesoftodaysoitisreal(e.g., link to Department of Defense, humanhealth,andnationalsecurity).
• Build capacity of younger and more diversepopulation.
• Institute“thepolluterpays”principlefor issuessuchasinvasivespeciesintroduction.
• Set up an information system between legis‐laturesandscientists.
• Influence political decision makers – identifytargetpeople;connectsciencetoaction;identifyleaderswhocancreatechange.
• Target agencies to reduce their own carbonfootprint.
• Promote agency use of the precautionaryprinciple when planning future activities(permitting, restoration plans, managementplans,etc.).
• Initiate a regional web‐based community toshare information such as examples ofadaptation plans, and improve communicationand collaboration; this could be a new onlineCommunity of Practice (COP) website or anexisting COP such as the Coastal ClimateAdaptationCOPwhere theregional communitycan establish themselves asa group andcreateouttheirownforum.
• Establish recommendations for long‐termmonitoring of climate change adaptationactions,whichrequiresunprecedentedcapacitybuilding.
• Potentially create a “prize” for innovativesolutions,likethe“RisingTides”competition.
SanctuaryPartnershipDevelopment• DevelopaninteragencyMOU,thatincludeslocalgovernment, to work on climate change issuescollaboratively.
• Formasenior level regionalgovernment grouptobuildcapacitytoobtainbuy‐in, identify localobstacles, and develop collaborative outcomes;precedent is the initial step of the CaliforniaMarine Life Protection Act (MLPA), whereprivate foundation(s) brought senior manage‐ment to a workshop to kick‐start the initialprocess. MLPA can be a model for how tostructure climate change dialogue – state yourmandate/vision, convene regional leaders,initiatestakeholderprocessandprovidesciencesupport.
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Overlapping Themes RecognizeUncertaintiesinScienceRecognize that science is not always able toprovide fine scale answers, and to be rigorous,scientists are not going to discuss their workwithout a range of uncertainty. Thus far, uncer‐tainties insciencehavebeenabarriertoengagingthe public and resource managers. Guidelines onhow to increase public and media acceptance ofuncertainty, what kind of information resonateswith decision makers (who listens andwhy), andwhatmotivateschangeareneeded.EngageSocialScientistsSocial scientists should be consulted whencommunicating climate change and local impacts,especiallyintermsofriskanduncertainty.BuildandUsePersonalConnectionsAn “It’s happeningnow” approachmust be taken.Personal experiences need to be connected to thechanges that are occurring. Climate change needstobemaderelevant on the local level, and tied toissuesoftodayinordertomakeitreal.PromoteLongtermMonitoringLong‐term data is needed for both scientificresearchandadaptationevaluation.Bestpracticesforcollectingthenecessaryphysicalandbiologicaldata as well as assessing adaptation options areneeded.ShareInformationInformationsharingforumsneedtobeinitiatedintheregion.Sharedinformationshouldinclude,butis not limited to: research goals, monitoring data,managementneeds,andadaptationplans.Possibil‐ities include: an information system betweenlegislativebodiesandscientiststoconnectscienceto action; information sharing amongst the localscientificcommunity;andaregionalCommunityofPractice.
Next Steps A)PublicOutreachCoordination• Encourage joint activities amongst the publicoutreach community, e.g., joint grant proposals(possiblyanNSFgrant).
• Foster connection and coordination withexisting networks including: Bay AreaEcosystems Climate Change Consortium (i.e.,becomemembersand/orestablishanEducationAdvisory group with them); Ocean CommunityAlliance;ClimateLiteracyCampaign;push foraClimate Literacy group with the Centers forOceanSciencesEducationExcellence(COSEE).
• Establish a public outreach group from thissummit;firststepistocreateanemaillistserve.Carol Preston (GFNMS) and AmyDean (FMSA)willbeinitialleadsforthis.
• Leverage the Bay Area Science Festival as avehicletogetthewordout.
• Help scientists communicate to the public, andprovideopportunitiesforbetterpublicaccesstoscientists.
DetermineLeadsforActionSteps• PlanningaBayArea‐wide“SeaLevelRiseDay.”• Joint advertising campaign – agree upon andproduce symbols to associate with mainmessages;possiblyusestudentstodesignalogo(and/or symbols) as part of a marketing ordesign class or hold a competition for symboldesign to help raise public awareness; workwithmediatohelptranslate.
B)ScienceandInformationCoordination• Identify management needs for information,thenfillmonitoringgapsbasedonthis.
• Determine best practices for both monitoringandadaptation(e.g.,wetlandsversusarmoring).
• Identifyhighvaluehabitat/priorityhabitats forprotection.
• Buildfundingcoalitions.
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• Provide political support and guidance toelected officials to prioritize public funding forsanctuary/ocean research, monitoring andprotection.
• Promote funding for retroactive analysis oflong‐termdatasets.
• Setupasharedinformaticssystemforthelocalscientificcommunity.
• Organize an annual or biennial workshop forresearchers and managers to share priorities,needs,andfindings.
• Encourage student internship and graduateresearchopportunities.
DetermineLeads/ExistingEffortsforActionSteps• Conduct research to understand physicaloceanicprocessessuchasupwelling.
• Analyzeandreferencehistoricdatasets(suchasretrospectiveland‐waterinterface).
• Measurechangesinnaturalparameters,suchassalinity,pH, temperature,andoxygenminimumzonesandstudyhowtheseaffectoceannoise.
• Use benchmark studies of marine pollution inCordellBanktoengagescientistsandthepublic.
• Shoreline and open ocean (e.g., currents andlarvalmovement)mapping.
C)InnovationandAdaptationCoordination• Provide legislation, funding, and incentives forlocal governments to implement adaptationstrategies; provide additional funding from thefederalsectortothelocalsector.
• Implementacommunityandstakeholder‐basedapproach/dialogue that includes governments,industryandtheaffectedcommunity.
• Workwithindustrytocomeupwithinnovativesolutions;includeindustryinscenarioplanning
• Create scenarios focused on local impacts(bioticandabiotic).
• Tie climate change to issues of today (e.g., linktonationalsecurity).
• Institute the polluter pays principle for issuessuch as invasive species introduction, and
promote agency use of the precautionaryprinciplewhenplanningfutureactivities.
DetermineLeads/ExistingEffortsforActionSteps• Assemble downscaled information to connectlocal plannerswith local/regional impact scen‐arios.
• DevelopaninteragencyMOU,thatincludeslocalgovernment, to work on climate change issuescollaboratively.
• Formasenior level regionalgovernment grouptobuildcapacity toobtainbuy‐in, identify localobstacles,anddevelopcollaborativeoutcomes.
• Set up an information system between legis‐lativebodiesandscientists.
• Initiate a regional web‐based Community ofPracticetoshareinformation.
• Establishrecommendationsforlong‐termmoni‐toring of climate change adaptation actions;developbestmanagementpracticesforadaptiveresponse.
• Create a “prize” for innovativeadaptationsolu‐tions.
Conclusion The Gulf of the Farallones National MarineSanctuary will use the recommendations devel‐oped during the 2010 Ocean Climate Summit:Moving fromKnowledge toAction incombinationwith the information from the report ClimateChange Impacts: Gulf of the Farallones and CordellBank National Marine Sanctuaries to inform andguide thedevelopmentofaClimateChangeActionPlanforGulfof theFarallones.Sanctuarystaffwillbuild upon the network of individuals broughttogether during the Summit to form a publicoutreach group to increase communicationamongst educators, researchers, and naturalresource managers. A climate change researchworking group will also be formed to: advise theSanctuary on monitoring gaps to fulfill manage‐ment needs; identify threatened and vulnerablehabitat; and recommend best practices formonitoringandadaptation. Theinformationgain‐edfromtheworkinggroupwillbesharedwiththe
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San Francisco Bay Area natural resource andregulatory community. Lastly, the Sanctuary willestablish a Technical Advisory Committee to:provide advice on the development of actionplanstrategiesspecifictoadaptivemanagement,policy,and planning; build capacity to obtain communitybuy‐in; identify local planning obstacles; anddevelop collaborative outcomes on a local, stateandfederallevel.In the fall, the Sanctuary’s new Ocean ClimateCenterwillopen. Therecommendations fromthereport and Summitwill guide the activities of theCenter.TheCenterwill:1)communicatetheaffectsof climate change on the Sanctuary and recognizetheregionasanindicatorforecosystemhealth;2)facilitate the centralization of ideas and educatethe public on what they can do to reduce theircarbon footprint; 3) focus on increasing efforts toprotect critical habitats that are identified as themost resilientand that face thegreatest threat;4)promote green operations and facilities internallyand become a model of sustainability for thecommunity;and5)promoteinterandintra‐agencypartnerships, as well as partnerships with non‐profitorganizationsandbusinesseswithintheBayArea to form an alliance to share resources andknowledge.In an effort to share knowledge, the recommen‐dations from the Climate Change Impacts reportand2010OceanClimateSummitwillbepresentedto the Bay Area Ecosystem Climate ChangeConsortium(BAECCC).BAECCCisaconsortiumoffederal, state, and non‐governmental research,management, and planning agencies in the SanFranciscoregionthathavejoinedeffortstoprovidea national model of cooperative, adaptive conser‐vationtosustainnature’sbenefitstoourcommun‐itiesinthefaceofrapidenvironmentalchange.Inparticular BAECCC may be able to help buildfunding coalitions, provide information andguidance to elected officials on the local effects ofclimate change, and develop a shared informaticssystemforthelocalscientificcommunity.
The collective knowledge that was broughttogether to write the Climate Change Impactsreport and to develop recommendations at theSummitwillbeused toguide futureactions alongthe north‐central California coast and will beshared with other sanctuaries and marineprotectedareasaroundthecountry.
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APPENDIX A: PUBLIC OUTREACH CASE STUDIES
Sea Level Rise KeyMessages/Information
• Tidegaugedataisrealanddemonstratesanincreaseovertime• Notaquestionofwhethericecapswillmelt,butgetarangeofestimatesofmelt/rise(1.4
metersvs.3.0meters)• Usethisdifferenceinsealevelrisescenariosaspartofthemessage–“byactionskeepit
onlyto0.5meters–not1.4meters”• Simplifyissuesasmuchaspossiblewithouttalkingdowntopeopleorlosingthebasic
science/truthofwhatishappening• Publicneedstoknowimpactsandwhy/howiteffectsthem,butmaynotneedtoknowall
thesciencebehindit• Needaculturalshiftinhowweseetheworld;peopleneedtocareaboutlossesinnature• Tietocurrentvalues–reachpeoplewheretheyare,fishingpiers,MissionDistrict,zoo‐
flamingo,etc.;whatwilltheybeimpactedbyandwhydotheycareabout?
Whyshouldpeoplecare?• Increasedinsurancerates• LossofrecreationareassuchasCrissyField• Lossofhighways• Lossofcoastaljobs• Lossofwildlifehabitat/breedingareas• Communitiesoforganismsstranded–nowheretomoveto• Marshlosscausesfloodingwhichrequiresnewinfrastructurewhichrequiresincreased
taxes
Currentexhibits/projects• AquariumoftheBay–sealevelrise.orgproject• MontereyBayAquarium–FlamingoExhibit
ActionstoPromote• Needmultipleactionchoices–forallaudiences–comeupwithdifferentlistsbasedonage,
neighborhood,(urban/rural),etc.• Decreaseindividualemissions• DOT–DoOneThing• Getinvolvedinsealevelrise.org
ToolsandActivities• Inundationmaps• BlueDotartinstallationshowing“100yearflooding”level• Usephotostoillustrateshiftingbaselines/perspectives–possiblyuseBeachWatchimages
overtime• “ChalkDay”inSFBayArea–involvelocalschools,agencies,institutions,businesses,etc.to
markbuildingstoshowanticipatedrisethroughoutarea;needtoolofadiagramforuseinprocess(inundationmaps);uselownumberfornewgoal–threelinesthroughoutcityto
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showdifferentpredictionsbest,worstscenarios;encouragepeopleto“pickalineandworktodecreasetheirCO2footprinttoachieveit”
• Adopt“MeatlessMonday”campaign• iPhoneapp–toshowwheresealevelrisewillbein“x”yearsaccordingtoyourGPSlocation• Illustrationsatbeachesaboutsealevelinthefuture–exampleinSouthernCalifornia• SeaLevelRiseDay(maybeononeofthehighesthightidedaysofyear)• PRBOhasanewonlinemappingtool,inneedofreview–lesstechnical,buthaspotentialto
beusedtomapimpactsOrganism Range Shifts KeyMessages/Information
• Over40examplesofanimalsimpactedbythisintheintertidal;uncertaintyassociatedwiththedegreeoftheaffects;certainaspectsofmediaturnthatinto“climatechangeisuncertain”
• Manydifferenttypesofchangesfororganisms:rangecontraction,localextinctions,temperaturerelatedrangeshifts,warmwaterdiseaseandparasiteincreases(ghostshrimp)
• Graywhales–shiftingtobirthingcalvesoffshoreoralongoutercoast(migrationroute);increasedhazardsforyoungcalvesinthesewaters;graywhalealsospottedintheMiddleEast,thoughttohavecome“upandover”throughArctic–seaicemoreopenthenbefore
• Californiasealions–nopuppingintheChannelIslands,thinkduetopoorfoodavailability;decreasedpuppinginBayAreaandincreasedpupmortality
• Frameintermsof“winners”vs.“losers”(i.e.,HumboldtSquid)• Usecharismaticmegafaunaasentrypoint–getheartfirst–thenscienceandchange
behavior• Makepublicawareofconsequencesofanimalmovements• Needcatchytitle,i.e.,“AdaptorDie”
Whyshouldpeoplecare?
• Hardertosee“corridor”issuesinoceansthenterrestrial–butstillexist;oceansarenotjustonebigcorridor
• Can’tmigrateupthebeachActions
• Expandprotectedareas–northwardandupland(i.e.,highergroundalongwaterways,coast,bay,estuaries,etc.)
• Decreaseemissions(Note:lotsoflistsexistforhowtodothis)• Createmarshes/otherhabitatstomitigate(expected)losses• Removemultiplestressors(pollutantsources,otherhumanimpacts)• Updatefishingregulationsbasedonprojectedandobservedshiftsandlosses• Reduceotherhumanimpacts(shipstrikes,soundpollution,nutrientrunoff,harmfulalgal
blooms,etc.)Compounding of Climate Change Effects with Local Human Activities KeyMessages/Information
• Hope‐filledapproach• OneEarth,OneOcean
2010 Ocean Climate Summit: Moving from Knowledge to Action
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Actions
• Eatlocal,organic,seasonal,andsustainablefood• Decreasewaterusage• Decreaseplasticusage• Decreasegeneralconsumptionofstuff• Decreaseendocrinedisruptersinwater• Promotesocialjustice–communitygardens;foodstampsforfarmersmarkets;farmers
marketsinallcommunities;makejunkfoodmoreexpensive,healthyfoodmoreobtainable;healthygardens,includeideasaboutrunoffandoceanimpacts
• Pullmoreactionsfromextensiveliststhatalreadyexist
2010 Ocean Climate Summit: Moving from Knowledge to Action
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APPENDIX B: 2010 Ocean Climate Summit Agenda
8:30 PublicReleaseofClimateChangeImpacts:GulfoftheFarallones&Cordell
BankNationalMarineSanctuariesCaliforniaAcademyofSciences,Planetarium
9:45MediaAvailabilityCaliforniaAcademyofSciences,climatechangeexhibit
10:15 SummitParticipantsEscortedtoBoardroomCoffeeandrefreshmentsavailable
10:30OceanClimateSummitBeginsMariaBrown,Superintendent,GFNMSandScottMcCreary,CONCUR,Inc.,welcomeparticipantsandreviewtheagenda/goalsfortheday
11:00 BreakoutGroupsAssembleandBeginGroupA:PublicOutreachGroupB:ScienceandInformationGroupC:InnovationandAdaptation
12:30Lunch1:30BreakoutGroupsContinueDeliberations2:45Break3:00BreakoutGroupsSummarizeDiscussionandPrepareReports3:45 BreakoutGroupsReportBackonDiscussion4:30WrapupandNextSteps
Overarchingfindingsandkeythemes;nextsteps;summarydistribution5:00AdjourntoParticipantReception6:00 CalAcademyNightlife(optional)
SummitparticipantsofferedfreeentrancetoNightlifeandspecialprogram,“OceanVoices,”inthePlanetarium
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APPENDIX C: 2010 Ocean Climate Summit Participants
breakout group noted in parentheses Adina Abeles (B) CenterforOceanSolutionsDirectorofEducationandTrainingabeles@stanford.eduDavid Ackerly (C) UniversityofCalifornia,[email protected] Adams (B) [email protected] Sarah Allen (A) NationalParkService,PacificWestRegionOceansStewardshipProgramsarah_allen@nps.govChristopher Andrews (A) CaliforniaAcademyofSciencesChiefofPublicEngagementcandrews@calacademy.org Ryan Bartling (C) CaliforniaDeptofFishandGameBiologist‐[email protected] Ben Becker (C) PacificCoastScience&LearningCenter, PointReyesNationalSeashoreDirectorandMarineEcologistben_becker@nps.gov Rebekah Berkov (A) [email protected] Bob Breen (A) [email protected]
Maria Brown (B) GulfoftheFarallonesNat’[email protected] Meg Burke (A) CaliforniaAcademyofSciencesDirectorofEducationmburke@calacademy.orgMeg Caldwell (C) [email protected] Carrie Chen (A) AquariumoftheBay/TheBayInstituteDirectorofEducation&[email protected] Cohen (B) [email protected] Craig Conner (C) ArmyCorpofEngineers FloodRiskManagementProgramManager/[email protected] Davis (A) 11thHourProject [email protected] Dean (B/A) FarallonesMarineSanctuaryAssociation [email protected]
2010 Ocean Climate Summit: Moving from Knowledge to Action
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Abe Doherty(C) OceanProtectionCouncil/StateCoastalConservancy [email protected] Jeff Dorman (B)UniversityofCalifornia,[email protected] Douros (B)OfficeofNationalMarineSanctuaries,WestCoastRegion [email protected] Elder (A) NationalParkService,GoldenGateNationalRecreationArea ParkRanger [email protected] Ferner (A) SanFranciscoBayNationalEstuarineResearchReserve [email protected] Jennifer Frazier (A) [email protected] Toby Garfield (B)RombergTiburonCenter Professor [email protected] Terry Gosliner (A) CaliforniaAcademyofSciences [email protected] Grimmer (C)MontereyBayNationalMarineSanctuary [email protected]
Daphne Hatch (C) NationalParkService,GGNRAChiefofNaturalResourceManagement&[email protected] Hines (B) SanFranciscoStateUniversityAssistantProfessor [email protected] Justin Holl (A) GulfoftheFarallonesNat’[email protected] Howard (B) CordellBankNationalMarineSanctuarySuperintendentdan.howard@noaa.gov Jaime Jahncke (C) PRBOConservationScienceMarineEcologyDirectorjjahncke@prbo.orgMichelle Jesperson (C) CaliforniaCoastalCommissionFederalProgramsManagermjesperson@coastal.ca.govRebecca Johnson (B) CaliforniaAcademyofSciences/GFNMS [email protected] Kerkering (B) MBARI/CeNCOOS [email protected] (C) NationalOceanEconomicsProgramDirector [email protected] Knoblock(C)GordonandBettyMooreFoundationProgramOfficerGary.Knoblock@moore.org
2010 Ocean Climate Summit: Moving from Knowledge to Action
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Irina Kogan (C) GulfoftheFarallonesNat’lMarineSanctuaryResourceProtectionSpecialistirina.kogan@noaa.govJaime Kooser (B) SanFranciscoBayNationalEstuarineResearchReserve Manager [email protected] Kelly Kryc (B) Gordon&[email protected] Lappe (A) AllianceforClimateEducationLeadEducator–[email protected] Jack Liebster (C) MarinCounty [email protected] Lunde (C) NOAACoastalServicesCenter [email protected] Jessica Luo (A) PacificCoastScience&LearningCenter,[email protected] McAfee (C) CaliforniaOceanScienceTrustExecutiveDirector,[email protected] McCosker (B) CaliforniaAcademyofSciences [email protected] Steve Monowitz (C) SanMateoCounty [email protected]
Lance Morgan (B) MarineConservationBiologyInstituteVicePresidentforSciencelance@mcbi.org Vahid Nowshiravan (C) CaltransTransportationEngineer/[email protected] Pap (C) CaliforniaCoastalCommissionCoastalProgramAnalystIIIrpap@coastal.ca.govDiana Pietri (B) CaliforniaOceanScienceTrustProgramManagerdiana.pietri@calost.orgMelissa Pitkin (A) PRBOConservationScienceEducationandOutreachDirectormpitkin@prbo.orgCarol Preston (A) GulfoftheFarallonesNat’lMarineSanctuaryEducationCoordinatorCarol.A.Preston@noaa.govKaren Reyna (C) GulfoftheFarallonesNat’lMarineSanctuaryActingResourceProtectionCoordinatorkaren.reyna@noaa.govDavid Reynolds (A)NationalWeatherService [email protected] Roletto (B) GulfoftheFarallonesNat’[email protected] Rutten (B) NOAARestorationCenter Supervisor,[email protected]
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Mary Jane Schramm (A) GulfoftheFarallonesNat’lMarineSanctuary Media&[email protected] Joe Sciortino (A) 11thHourProject [email protected] Smyth (B) NOAACoastalServicesCenter [email protected] Stock (A) CordellBankNationalMarineSanctuary [email protected] Tom Suchanek (C)USGS,WesternEcologicalResearchCenterLeadScientistandClimateChangeCoordinatortsuchanek@usgs.govAndrea Swensrud (A) KQEDPublicMedia ProjectSupervisor,[email protected] William Sydeman (B) FarallonesInstitute [email protected] Sage Tezak (B) GulfoftheFarallonesNat’[email protected] Christy Walker (A) GulfoftheFarallonesNat’[email protected] Gretchen Weber (A) KQEDClimateWatch [email protected]
Julie Xelowski-Brooker(A)MarineScienceInstitute ProgramDirector [email protected] Staff and Facilitators John Gamman (C) CONCUR,Inc. [email protected] Kelley Higgason GulfoftheFarallonesNat’lMarineSanctuaryOceanClimateInitiativeCoordinatorkelley.higgason@noaa.govScott McCreary (B) CONCUR,Inc. [email protected] Pope CaliforniaAcademyofSciencesManagerofSustainabilityProgramsapope@calacademy.orgMarina Psaros SanFranciscoBayNationalEstuarineResearchReserve [email protected] Talebi SanFranciscoBayNationalEstuarineResearchReserve CoastalTrainingProgramAssistantCoordinatorbtalebi@sfbaynerr.orgRebecca Tuden (A) CONCUR,Inc.Associate [email protected]
APPENDIX D: Climate Change Impacts Report Executive Summary
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
GULF OF THE FARALLONES AND CORDELL BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARIES
Report of a Joint Working Group of the Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries Advisory Councils
Editors John Largier, Brian Cheng, and Kelley Higgason
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Full report available at: http://farallones.noaa.gov/eco/climate/climate.html#report
Josh Pederson / SIMoN NOAA Matt Wilson/Jay Clark, NOAA NMFS AFSC NMFS Southwest Fisheries Science Center
Executive Summary
On global and regional scales, the ocean is changing due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and associated global climate change. Regional physical changes include sea level rise, coastal erosion and flooding, and changes in precipitation and land runoff, ocean-atmosphere circulation, and ocean water properties. These changes in turn lead to biotic responses within ocean ecosystems, including changes in physiology, phenology, and population connectivity, as well as species range shifts. Regional habitats and ecosystems are thus affected by a combination of physical processes and biological responses. While climate change will also significantly impact human populations along the coast, this is discussed only briefly. Climate Change Impacts, developed by a joint working group of the Gulf of the Farallones (GFNMS) and Cordell Bank (CBNMS) National Marine Sanctuary Advisory Councils, identifies and synthesizes potential climate change impacts to habitats and biological communities along the north-central California coast. This report does not assess current conditions, or predict future changes. It presents scientific observations and expectations to identify potential issues related to changing climate – with an emphasis on the most likely ecological impacts and the impacts that would be most severe if they occur. Climate Change Impacts provides a foundation of information and scientific insight for each sanctuary to develop strategies for addressing climate change. These strategies will outline priority management actions for the next 10 years to address the impacts of climate change specific to the site, its communities, and the region. A Changing Ocean Environment
Key Issues
⇒ Observed increase in sea level (100 year record at mouth of San Francisco Bay) ⇒ Expected increase in coastal erosion associated with changes in sea level and
storm waves ⇒ Observed decrease in spring runoff of freshwater through San Francisco Bay
(decreased Sierra snowpack) ⇒ Observed increase in precipitation variability (drier dry years, wetter wet years) ⇒ Observed increase in surface ocean temperature offshore of the continental shelf
(50 year record) ⇒ Observed increase in winds driving coastal upwelling of nutrient-rich waters and
associated observed decrease in surface ocean temperature over the continental shelf (30 year record)
⇒ Observed increase in extreme weather events (winds, waves, storms) ⇒ Expected decrease in seawater pH, due to uptake of CO2 by the ocean ⇒ Observed northward shift of key species (including Humboldt squid, volcano
barnacle, gray whales, bottlenose dolphins) ⇒ Possible shift in dominant phytoplankton (from diatom to dinoflagellate blooms) ⇒ Potential for effects of climate change to be compounded by parallel
environmental changes associated with local human activities
Physical Effects of Climate Change The observed rise in sea level at the mouth of San Francisco Bay over the last century is 20 cm, and this rise is expected to continue. The State of California is using a projection of 40 cm rise in sea level by 2050 and 140 cm by 2100 for planning purposes. However, the most recent sea level rise analysis projects 75 to 190 cm respectively. The rise in sea level exacerbates coastal flooding, shoreline erosion, saltwater intrusion into groundwater aquifers, inundation of wetlands and estuaries, and threatens cultural and historic resources as well as infrastructure (see 3.4 Sea Level Rise). As a result of rising sea level, together with more intense precipitation/runoff events and an increase in extreme wave and storm conditions, an increase in coastal erosion is expected. If sea level rises 1.4 m by 2100, scientists project that the total erosion area for the five counties along the study region will reach nearly 50 km2. Coastal habitats may be directly affected by erosion through habitat loss, or indirectly via human responses such as coastal armoring, beach nourishment, or planned retreat (see 3.5 Coastal Erosion). Climate-related changes in precipitation and runoff are primarily related to reduced snowpack due to warmer winter storms. Reduced Sierra snowpack will result in stronger winter runoff events and reduced spring runoff through San Francisco Bay. In smaller coastal watersheds, as well, more extreme winter precipitation events are expected. Further, it is projected that there will be a greater variability in annual precipitation during the 21st century (i.e., drier dry years and wetter wet years). In turn, these changes in runoff can be expected to lead to increased flooding of coastal lowlands, erosion of estuarine habitats, increased delivery of watershed material to the ocean, expanded plume areas, and increased nearshore stratification (see 3.2 Precipitation and Land Runoff). Surface ocean temperatures have increased in the North Pacific, offshore of the north-central California continental shelf. This increase in temperature has significant effects on water column structure (i.e., stratification), sea level rise, and ocean circulation patterns. While sea temperature also appears to have increased in shallow bays, estuaries and sheltered nearshore locations, waters over the north-central California continental shelf have cooled over the last 30 years (by as much as 1oC in some locations) due to stronger and/or more persistent upwelling winds during spring, summer and fall (see 3.6.1 Temperature; 3.5 Coastal Upwelling). Stronger alongshore winds are expected as a result of an increasing difference in land-ocean atmospheric pressure associated with an increasing difference in land-ocean temperature as climate warms. These stronger winds push surface waters away from the coast more rapidly and force a stronger upwelling of deep, cold, nutrient-rich waters along the coast. This upwelled supply of nutrients is the foundation of the high biological productivity of the ocean in the study region. Both the strength of upwelling winds and the variability in winds affect the amount of primary production available, and the amount delivered to coastal ecosystems rather than offshore ecosystems. Enhanced upwelling results in less phytoplankton availability in coastal waters and a greater but more diffuse supply of phytoplankton to offshore waters. Further, there is preliminary evidence that upwelling will also be more persistent, extending into the fall – but results from analyses of changes in the start of the upwelling season (“spring transition”) are mixed (see 3.5 Coastal Upwelling).
In addition to the increase in average coastal winds during spring, summer, and fall, data from the San Francisco tide gauge (from 1858 to 2000) show an increase in intense winter storms since 1950, consistent with an observed increase in the largest waves (see 3.3.2 Waves). Coastal flooding events that were previously 1-in-100 events are now projected to occur with a probability of 1-in-10 years (see 3.1 Atmosphere). Coastal waters are expected to become more acidic as pH is lowered in response to increased concentration of carbon dioxide in ocean waters. While data and model studies are insufficient to be certain how pH will change in the study region, this phenomenon is critical, as it will decrease the availability of chemical building blocks for marine life with shells and skeletons made out of calcium carbonate. Ocean acidification leads to decreased shell growth in key species such as sea urchins, mussels, oysters, abalone, and crabs, thus making the animal more susceptible to predation, as well as decreased skeleton production of deep sea corals and hydrocorals. As deeper water tends to be more acidic already, deepwater corals such as the hydrocorals located at Cordell Bank may be one of the first to experience deleterious effects of acidification. Also, of particular concern are the larval and juvenile stages of these organisms, which may be more susceptible to ocean acidification due to their small size. In addition, there is concern for negative effects on shell-building plankton at the base of the food web (see 3.6.2 Ocean Acidification; 4.1 Physiology; 5.3 Invertebrates). In addition to trends in the physical climate, natural climate fluctuations occur in association with El Niño and other phenomena, e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The combination of climate change trends with this natural variability may create new extreme conditions. For example, high waves that occur during El Niño events are likely to be more extreme when combined with higher sea level and increased wave heights due to climate change. Similarly, during the positive phase of the PDO, the trend for warmer weather with increased rain, runoff and waves will be enhanced; whereas climate-change trends will be temporarily alleviated during the negative phase of the PDO, yielding periods in which climate change appears to have stalled only to be followed by years of apparently rapid climate change (see 3.0 Physical Effects of Climate Change). Marine Species Respond Physical changes in sea level, winds, waves, temperature, pH, and runoff may influence a variety of critical biotic processes, such as metabolic rates, planktonic transport, prey availability, and/or predation rates (see 5.0 Responses in Marine Organisms). The response of a single species to climate change depends not only on environmental changes, but also upon how other interacting species will respond to this change. Marine organisms may respond in a variety of ways to the changing ocean conditions, e.g., (i) remain in the same area but adapt to changing conditions, (ii) persist in sub-optimal conditions but with potentially significant physiological costs, (iii) move to environmental conditions that suit their physiological tolerances by expanding or contracting their range in space (along latitudinal, depth, or intertidal gradients), or (iv) adjust the timing of their life history (e.g., breeding events) – see 4.0 Regional Biotic Responses. In Climate Change Impacts available data and detailed studies are discussed to provide a sense of the nature of species-specific changes that may result from climate change in this region.
A general northward range expansion of organisms is anticipated owing to warming of ocean waters. Consistent with this projection, there have been observed northward expansions of volcano barnacles, gray whale calving, bottlenose dolphins, and Humboldt squid. However, not all organisms exhibit this shift, suggesting that species responses will likely differ, and that non-uniform changes in ocean temperature from the nearshore to the continental shelf to offshore of the shelf will complicate expectations (see 4.2 Range Shifts; 3.6.1Temperature). Changes in the timing of the spring transition or the seasonal peak in upwelling could have significant population level impacts for many species. Marine fish likely time their spawning efforts to ensure maximum food availability for larval fish later in the season. Similarly, seabirds likely time their breeding to maximize prey abundance during the critical chick-rearing period. Peak upwelling (and peak food production) may occur too late in the season for successful reproduction if marine fish and seabirds begin breeding in response to an early spring transition. Late upwelling is generally associated with poor ocean productivity, low krill abundance, and late seabird breeding. In turn, late breeding is generally associated with poor seabird reproductive success and could ultimately lead to breeding population declines in the region (see 4.3 Phenology). Recent increases in dinoflagellate blooms in Monterey Bay are consistent with warmer surface temperatures and an associated increase in water stratification in the Bay over the last decade. In contrast, a decrease in phytoplankton concentration is expected along open coasts due to a 30-year increase in upwelling winds and associated offshore movement of phytoplankton – with an increased supply of phytoplankton to offshore waters. Longer data records are needed to determine if these are long-term trends or decadal variability (see 5.1 Plankton). Macroalgae can be impacted as well through a variety of changes including: (i) increasing nearshore sea surface temperatures; (ii) sea level rise – which can reduce light availability and the availability of suitable attachment surfaces; (iii) changes in upwelling – which can affect the availability of nutrients for photosynthesis; and (iv) increased waves and turbulence – which can detach algae and compromise growth (see 5.2 Macroalgae and Plants). The availability of prey species for fish, seabirds, and marine mammals may be negatively affected by changes in upwelling, as well as ocean acidification. Changing temperatures will directly influence fish physiology, as most fishes are cold-blooded. Fish could respond to these changes by shifting their distributional range to preferred temperatures (see 4.2 Range Shifts). Seabirds and marine mammals may also be impacted by expected increases in sea and air temperature, sea level rise, and extreme storm events – leading to altered migration patterns as well as changes in abundance, timing of breeding, reproductive success, and behavior (see 5.5 Seabirds; 5.6 Marine Mammals). And Marine Habitats Respond Productivity in open-ocean pelagic habitats is controlled through a delicate balance between wind-driven upwelling and stratification of the water column due to surface warming. Increasing surface temperatures offshore and in bays appear to be reducing vertical mixing and causing a shift in the phytoplankton community, while increased upwelling over the continental shelf may be having the opposite effect. Further, changes in large-scale ocean circulation may be altering
the zooplankton community and increasing gelatinous zooplankton (which are undesirable prey for higher trophic levels; see 6.1 Pelagic Habitat). During weak-upwelling years such as 2005 and 2006, a reduction in phytoplankton and zooplankton abundances was seen in the region. Not only did abundances of krill (adult krill, in particular) and copepods decline, but abundances of gelatinous zooplankton appeared to increase. Due to the lack of available prey, (e.g., adult krill), Cassin’s auklets abandoned nests and failed to breed in these years. Further, the decreased survival of Chinook salmon entering the ocean that year and low salmon returns in California in 2008 appear to be related. Also, sightings of blue whales (another krill predator) decreased significantly from 2004. Because of their limited ability to move, communities associated with benthic habitats are particularly susceptible to changes in water properties (e.g., temperature, dissolved oxygen, and ocean pH). While short-lived species with dispersive life stages may shift their spatial distribution, other members of benthic communities will have to adapt in order to survive (see 6.2 Offshore Benthic Habitat). Of particular concern to island habitats is rising sea level and increased wave/storm intensity. Models show that a sea level rise of 0.5 m would result in permanent flooding of approximately 5% of the surface area of the Farallon Islands, including many of the intertidal areas where seals and sea lions haul out. In turn this will shrink the area available for seabirds to nest and breed, reducing the capacity of the largest seabird-breeding colony in the contiguous United States. In addition, the average annual air temperature at the Farallones has exhibited an increasing trend over 36 years (1971- 2007), which will impact many island species that are adapted to cold and windy conditions and quickly become stressed when conditions change. During unusually warm weather, seabirds have abandoned their nests, neglected dependent offspring, and died of heat stress. Marine mammals spend less time hauled out (resting) and would be expected to abandon young in the rookeries if temperatures become too warm (see 6.3 Island Habitat). In nearshore subtidal habitats organisms are susceptible to a variety of changes affecting the habitat, including ocean acidification, changes in upwelling and water stratification that affect nutrient delivery, increases in wave heights that affect sediment redistribution, and sea level rise that decreases light availability to macroalgae (see 6.6 Nearshore Subtidal). Of primary concern for rocky intertidal habitat are possible increases in average water and air temperature, specifically the occurrence of extreme conditions that can result in mass mortality of intertidal organisms. Further, ocean acidification is likely to severely affect the ability of intertidal organisms to produce shells. Sea level rise will also affect habitat distribution for intertidal organisms (i.e., increased sea level rise and increased air temperatures may compress the range of high intertidal species into lower zones; see 6.5 Rocky Intertidal Habitat). Sea level rise and increased storminess are expected to have significant impact on beach habitats within the study region, by increasing rates of shoreline erosion and retreat, and degrading habitat quality. Aggravating this habitat change is the loss of habitat due to the expected increase in shoreline armoring to protect properties from rising sea levels. Threatened species include birds such as the western snowy plover and California least tern that nest in dry sand,
fish such as the California grunion and smelt that depend on open sandy beaches for spawning, and pinnipeds such as elephant seals, sea lions, and harbor seals that pup and raise their young on sandy beaches (see 6.4 Sandy Beach Habitat). Estuary habitats in the study region may be most affected by changes in the timing and persistence of seasonal mouth closure and the intensity and timing of seasonal runoff, as well as the continued rise in sea level. Sediment delivery and availability will strongly influence the ability of estuary morphology to adjust to rising sea level and maintain intertidal estuarine habitat. Also, water properties such as temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and pH can be expected to change significantly, as well as patterns of primary production (see 6.7 Estuarine Habitat). Climate Change is Not Alone In parallel with global climate change impacts to the regional ocean environment, land- and marine-based human activities impose additional stress to these habitats, species and ecological communities in the study region. Multiple stressors may interact to produce unexpectedly severe impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem health. Additional stressors within the study region include pollution, invasive species, fishing, disease, habitat modification, wildlife disturbance, and development of infrastructure along the coast and at sea. Given that reducing the threats of climate change is a large and global challenge, local and regional natural resource managers should focus on reducing local stressors in order to maintain the resiliency of the ecosystem (so that it can adapt to changes caused by changing climates; see 7.0 Parallel Ecosystem Stressors). Coastal Communities Feel the Heat People living and working along the coast will be directly impacted by climate change. While this is not the focus of this report, human responses to these direct impacts on society and the economy are expected to significantly impact marine ecosystems. Issues of particular concern for human populations living along the coast include: water pollution and public health; shoreline safety; and the economic impact from the loss of beaches, loss or damage to coastal infrastructure, damage or loss of homes and commercial structures, and losses incurred by ocean-related businesses. These losses will have significant effects on a variety of economic sectors, including transportation (such as roads and highways, airports, ports and shipping), tourism, fishing, and coastal businesses; see 8.0 Direct Impacts on Humans). So Now What? It is certain that marine wildlife, coastal ocean ecosystems, and human populations along the coast will be subject to significant changes. The changes discussed in this report present daunting challenges for long-term management of the Gulf of Farallones and Cordell Bank national marine sanctuaries. While it is unlikely that we will ever be able to fully predict future states of a system as complex as the coastal ecosystem within the study region, we can improve our understanding through monitoring and study and we can define a range of potential impacts. Sanctuary staff needs to develop an action plan, which includes monitoring and adaptive management approaches that can be implemented as the environment continues to change, seeking to maximize benefits of change while mitigating the negative impacts (see 9.0 Conclusion).
Recommendations
⇒ Educate society – inform people to allow for optimum decisions
⇒ Put ecosystems in context – link greenhouse gas emissions with marine ecosystem health
⇒ Anticipate change – obtain best available information on changing and
future conditions
⇒ Mitigate impacts on the system – reduce manageable stressors that compromise system resiliency
⇒ Adapt to change – create policies and management strategies that are
flexible to future changes
