@LocalDataCo
#LDCInsights Retail & Leisure Trends
H1 2017
Kindly hosted by York BID
21st November, 2017
@LocalDataCo
#LDCInsights
Matthew Hopkinson, LDC
Tel: 020 3111 4393
Mobile: 07799 772258
#YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
@LocalDataCo
#LDCInsights
Introduction
What we do and why we do it
York and key zones – occupancy and footfall profiles
The GB retail environment
What’s happened in 2017?
Openings and closures
Vacancy
Changing trends in location health
Predictions
Agenda
@LocalDataCo
#LDCInsights
We create location data to help businesses keep track
of the fast changing
retail and leisure marketplace.
2003
550,000 shops
tracked
700 Footfall
sensors
Founded in
2003
Update cycle
6-12 months Field Research
(68,000 updates/month)
Data Occupiers Investors Councils BIDs SEO Media
@LocalDataCo
#LDCInsights
To identify the most
profitable locations
To inform on
opportunities and
threats
To quantify market
trends
! £
Why we exist? #YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
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Field Research Office Research Online Insights Interpretation
How we do it? #YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
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#LDCInsights York CLG Area #YBW2017
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#LDCInsights York BID boundary #YBW2017
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#LDCInsights Gillygate #YBW2017
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#LDCInsights Footfall Heatmap #YBW2017
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#LDCInsights Footfall Profile – Coney Street #YBW2017
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#LDCInsights Footfall Profile – Pavement #YBW2017
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#LDCInsights York CLG Area – Occupancy #YBW2017
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#LDCInsights York CLG Area - Vacancy #YBW2017
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#LDCInsights H1 2017: The GB context
Retail
+4.4% Since 2016
77% of adults bought products and
services online
#YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
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#LDCInsights An overview on Retail
Comparison Goods
Retail (non-food) - only
category in decline
The North West
saw biggest
increase in
occupied shops
#YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
@LocalDataCo
#LDCInsights
3.955 3.752
4.102
3.561
2.890
2.533
3.539 3.271
3.716 3.472
2.907 2.813
417 482 385
90 -17 -280
-500
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Month
Openings Closures Net
Openings & Closures of retail & leisure units by month, H1 2017
Openings & Closures #YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
@LocalDataCo
#LDCInsights
H1 2016
-1,997 H1 2017
103
Net Openings & Closures of retail & leisure units, H1 2016 vs. H1 2017
Openings & Closures #YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
@LocalDataCo
#LDCInsights
4.413 4.258 4.326
3.814
3.417
3.015
3.409
4.191
4.607
4.608 4.439
4.026 3.955
3.752
4.102
3.561
2.890
2.533
4.486 4.341
4.585
4.186 3.853
3.433
3.979
4.500 4.683
4.375 4.344
3.867 3.539
3.271
3.716
3.472
2.907 2.813
-73 -83 -259 -371 -436 -418
-570 -308
-76 232 95 159
417 482 385 90 -17
-280
-1.000
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2016 2017
Openings Closures Net change
Openings & Closures of retail & leisure units, Jan 16 - Jun 17
Openings & Closures #YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
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#LDCInsights Net Openings & Closures Retail and leisure units across GB, by quarter, 2012-2017
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600N
et O
pen
ing
s/C
losure
s
#YBW2017
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@LocalDataCo
#LDCInsights
81
105
11
-94
103
-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150
High Streets
Retail Parks
Shopping Centres
Standalone
Balance
Number of units
Net Openings & Closures by location type, H1 2017
#YBW2017
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#LDCInsights Net Openings & Closures
308
1.592
389
-1.319
970
-1.500 -1.000 -500 0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000
High Street
Retail Park
Shopping Centre
Standalone
Total
Number of units
by location type, H1 2013 – H1 2017
#YBW2017
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#LDCInsights Distribution of stores by location type H1 2017
High Streets Retail Parks Shopping Centres Standalone
50.5% 2.5% 6.8% 40.2%
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#LDCInsights
Comparison Convenience Leisure Service
Closures Openings
Net Openings & Closures by classification, H1 2017
Total
Num
ber
of
units
Net change
6,814 7,479
-665
18
2,575 2,557
5,294 4,861
433
5,530 5,213
317
20,213 20,110
103
#YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
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#LDCInsights What’s new? Top 5 openings of stores by classification type
Convenience Comparison
Leisure Service
#YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
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#LDCInsights What’s new? Top 5 openings of stores by classification type
Top 5 closures of stores by classification type
Convenience Comparison
Leisure Service
#YBW2017
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#LDCInsights Top 10 Multiples: Retail and Leisure By net growth in number of stores across GB, H1 2016 – H1 2017
Leisure
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#LDCInsights Top 10 Multiples: Retail and Leisure By net growth in number of stores across GB, H1 2016 – H1 2017
Leisure
@LocalDataCo
#LDCInsights
Classification Category Count:Nov-17 Opened(Nov-16-Nov-17) Closed(Nov-16-Nov-17) NetChange %NetChange
Comparison ElectricalGoods&HomeEntertainment 28 2 4 -2 -6.7
Comparison Furniture,Carpets,Textiles,Bathrooms&Kitchens 25 3 5 -2 -7.4
Leisure Accommodation 31 2 4 -2 -6.1
Leisure Bars,Pubs&Clubs 108 6 8 -2 -1.8
Service Employment&PostOffices 14 0 2 -2 -12.5
Comparison Fashion&GeneralClothing 99 6 9 -3 -2.9
Convenience Confectionery,Tobacco,Newsagents 22 4 8 -4 -15.4
Comparison Gifts,China&LeatherGoods 35 7 12 -5 -12.5
Comparison Sports,Toys,CycleShops&Hobbies 34 5 11 -6 -15
Y
York BID: Top & Bottom Categories By net growth in number of stores November 2016-2017
Classification Category Count:Nov-17 Opened(Nov-16-Nov-17) Closed(Nov-16-Nov-17) NetChange %NetChange
Leisure Restaurants 120 17 11 6 5.3
Comparison Books,Arts&Crafts,Stationery,Printers 55 6 4 2 3.8
Comparison DIY,Hardware,Builder'sMerchants&HouseholdGoods 8 2 0 2 33.3
Convenience Bakers 17 2 0 2 13.3
Service Hairdressing,Health&Beauty 112 7 5 2 1.8
Comparison Jewellers,Clocks&Watches 40 3 2 1 2.6
Convenience Butchers&Fishmongers 4 1 0 1 33.3
Service Banks,FinancialServices&BuildingSocieties 21 1 0 1 5
Service Locksmiths,ClothingAlterations&ShoeRepairs 10 1 0 1 11.1
ClassificationChangeYorkBID
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#LDCInsights Top 20 towns For net gain in numbers of occupied stores across GB
#YBW2017
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#LDCInsights Top 20 towns For net loss in numbers of occupied stores across GB
#YBW2017
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#LDCInsights
11,2 11,2 11,2 11,2 11,2
11,1
11,0
10,9 10,9 10,9
11,0 11,0
10,8
10,9
11,0
11,1
11,2
11,3
11,4
Jul Sep Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Vacancy R
ate
(%
)
2016 2017
Retail and Leisure vacancy rate H1 2016 – H1 2017
#YBW2017
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#LDCInsights Vacancy – the long way back
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
2008-1
2
2009-0
2
2009-0
4
2009-0
6
2009-0
8
2009-1
0
2009-1
2
2010-0
2
2010-0
4
2010-0
6
2010-0
8
2010-1
0
2010-1
2
2011-0
2
2011-0
4
2011-0
6
2011-0
8
2011-1
0
2011-1
2
2012-0
2
2012-0
4
2012-0
6
2012-0
8
2012-1
0
2012-1
2
2013-0
2
2013-0
4
2013-0
6
2013-0
8
2013-1
0
2013-1
2
2014-0
2
2014-0
4
2014-0
6
2014-0
8
2014-1
0
2014-1
2
2015-0
2
2015-0
4
2015-0
6
2015-0
8
2015-1
0
2015-1
2
2016-0
2
2016-0
4
2016-0
6
2016-0
8
2016-1
0
2016-1
2
2017-0
2
2017-0
4
2017-0
6
Vacancy R
ate
(%
)
GB shop vacancy rates 2008 - H1 2017 (%)
#YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
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#LDCInsights GB Retail and Leisure vacancy rate By location type H1 2017
5.1% 11.0% 12.6%
@LocalDataCo
#LDCInsights Persistent Retail and Leisure vacancy rates Across location types, H1 2017
4,6%
3,7%
1,9%
2,6%
2,2%
1,1%
1,6%
1,2%
0,5%
0,9%
0,7%
0,5%
0,8%
0,6%
0,4%
2,4%
2,2%
0,8%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Shopping Centres (36,800 units)
Town Centres (274,115 units)
Retail Parks (11,165 units)
Vacancy (%)
Loca
tion
typ
e < 1 year
1-2 years
2-3 years
3-4 years
4-5 years
> 5 years
@LocalDataCo
#LDCInsights Retail and Leisure vacancy rates By town centre size, H1 2017
5.6%
10.7%
12.1%
Small
Centres
Medium
Centres
Large
Centres
#YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
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#LDCInsights Retail and Leisure vacancy rates By nation in GB, H1 2017
England 11.1%
Scotland 11.9%
Wales 14.5%
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#LDCInsights
11,1%
11,9%
14,5%
5,1%
6,7%
5,9%
12,3%
15,1%
12,2%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
16,0%
England Scotland Wales
Vacancy
(%)
Nation
Town centres Retail parks Shopping centres
Retail and Leisure vacancy rates By nation and location type, H1 2017
#YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
North East 14.8%
Yorks. & the Humber 14.5% (York=8.2%)
East Midlands 12.1%
Greater London 7.5%
South East 9.9%
South West 10.1%
West Midlands
14.2%
North West 15.1%
East Anglia 10.0%
Retail and Leisure vacancy rates By region of England, H1 2017
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#LDCInsights Persistent Retail and Leisure vacancy rates
3,9 4,1 4,2 4,4 4,3 3,5 3,6 3,8 3,7 3,4 3,5
2,8 2,4 2,5 2,6 2,6
2,8 2,2 2,3 1,9
1,8 1,6
1,7 1,5
1,7 1,5 1,3 1,5
1,4 1,3 1,1
1,1 0,8
1,1 1,2
1,0 0,8 0,9 0,8
0,9 0,6 0,7
0,6 0,4
1,1 0,9 0,7 0,6 0,7
0,9 0,7 0,5
0,5 0,6
0,3
3,5 3,5 3,0
2,6 2,7 3,0
2,4
1,5 1,7
1,7
1,0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
North West(37,478units)
North East(12,588units)
WestMidlands(27,151units)
Scotland(15,711units)
Yorkshireand theHumber(26,318units)
Wales(14,336units)
EastMidlands(20,880units)
South West(30,500units)
East OfEngland(27,773units)
South East(46,735units)
GreaterLondon(62,610units)
Vacancy (
%)
Nations and regions
> 5 years4-5 years3-4 years2-3 years1-2 years< 1 year
Across location types, H1 2017
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#LDCInsights Top 10 best performing retail centres For Retail and Leisure vacancy across GB, H1 2017
(York ranks 338th out of 650 towns)
@LocalDataCo
#LDCInsights Top 10 best performing retail centres For Retail and Leisure vacancy across GB, H1 2017
(York ranks 338th out of 650 towns)
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#LDCInsights Top 10 worst performing retail centres For Retail and Leisure vacancy across GB, H1 2017
(York ranks 338th out of 650 towns)
@LocalDataCo
#LDCInsights Top 10 worst performing retail centres For Retail and Leisure vacancy across GB, H1 2017
(York ranks 338th out of 650 towns)
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#LDCInsights Location health – what is the health index? 12 variables
£
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#LDCInsights York Health Index #YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
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#LDCInsights LDC Health Index average scores Across five location types H1 2015 – H1 2017
5,3
1,9
15,4
4,1
2,1
4,8
1,8
14,8
4,1
2,1
4,5
1,8
14,4
3,7
2,1
0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0
Shopping centres
Retail parks
Large towns
Medium towns
Small towns
Average score per year
H1 2015
H1 2016
H1 2017
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#LDCInsights Top 10 large centres By rise in LDC Health Index score H1 2016 – H1 2017
6
6
7
7
8
8
8
10
13
15
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Leeds
Victoria (London)
Truro
Oxford
Barnstaple
Kingston-upon-Thames
Knightsbridge
Ipswich
Edinburgh
Chelmsford
Rise in LDC Health score (points)
#YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
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#LDCInsights Top 10 large centres By fall in LDC Health Index score H1 2016 – H1 2017
-5
-5
-5
-6
-7
-8
-8
-9
-10
-10
-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0
Coventry
Croydon
Barnsley
West London
Swindon
Bradford
Lincoln
Leicester
Bath
West End, London
Fall in LDC Health score (points)
#YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
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#LDCInsights Top 10 medium centres By rise in LDC Health Index score H1 2016 – H1 2017
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
9
10
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Albany Road, Cardiff
Carmarthen
Chatham
Ripley
Spalding
Stourbridge
Winchester
Hereford
Newmarket
Altrincham
Rise in LDC Health score (points)
#YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
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#LDCInsights Top 10 medium centres By fall in LDC Health Index score H1 2016 – H1 2017
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-6
-6
-6
-6
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0
Acton
Kendal
Long Eaton
Petersfield
Ripon
Wilmslow
Cleveleys
Finsbury Park
Holloway Road
Lymington
Fall in Health Index score (points)
#YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
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#LDCInsights So what for occupiers?
Footfall Digital presence Retailing still takes place
in physical stores
#YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
@LocalDataCo
#LDCInsights So what for investors?
Rental values Specialisation
In certain locations
Competitor analysis
can reveal growth
#YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
@LocalDataCo
#LDCInsights So what for government?
Take temperature of
retail centres
Footfall & Spend
vs.
Openings vs.
Closures
#YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
@LocalDataCo
#LDCInsights Predictions
F&B
Bubble? Rise of mega
malls & cities
Acceleration of mixed
used destinations
Increased
trading volatility
Rise of entertainment
destinations
Consumer
polarisation
#YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
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#LDCInsights York versus selected Benchmarks #YBW2017
#YorkBizWeek2017
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#LDCInsights
Thank you for listening
www.localdatacompany.com
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