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Hanoi, January 27th 2015
Rodolfo Soncini Sessa DEI – Politecnico di Milano
IMRR Project
2 – Framing the system/problem
INTEGRATED AND SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT OF RED-THAI BINH RIVER SYSTEM
IN A CHANGING CLIMATE
The Design Problem
(It)
scenario
The Policy
control
informationfeasible control set
state
policy
(It)
control law
What is a policy?
h
06-15 08-21
110
101
110
u
t
w
110
t
h
u
w
t1
t1
Time = t1
flood
supply
Policy
t2
Time = t2
t2
t2
101
control law
Reservoirs policy =one cohordinated policy for the 4 reservoirs
Policy: a function mt(It) that at each day t, given the information It suggests the optimal release ut from the four strategic reservoirs.
The Design Objectives
(It)
objective
Evaluating the effects:
indicators and criteria hierarchyTo day 10:00 -11:00
The system model
(It)state exogenous input
Modeling the system 1-4To day and tomorrow
Strategic reservoirs
Hanoi
Scheme of RTBR system
Hoa Binh proper inflow
Son La (Ta Bu) and Hoa Binh proper inflows
a2t+1 = aHB
t+1- a1t
Hoa Binh proper inflow
Hoa Binh total inflow
Son La inflow = Ta Bu
Correlogram of Ta Bu and Hoa Binh recorded
flows (1961-1988)
Head water recorded data
Son La
Hoa Binh prop.
Yen Bay
Thac Ba
Ham Yen
Tuyen Quang
Historical horizon1961 - 2010
Reconstruction of Thac Ba inflow
Scheme of RTBR system
DELTA
Hoa Binh proper inflow
The Delta ModelTomorrow 9:00 -10:00
The boundary conditions of the Delta model
Water demand
Minor river flows
The tide
Tyde patterns (Son Dong station)
Diurnal
Semi-diurnal
Center of mass of the Earth-Moon system
The tide
Tide pattern (at Hon Dau)
Spring tyde
Neap tyde
The intake points
The intake points
Gravity channels
Nhue canal at the end of the wet season
Nhue canal when the irrigation demand peaks
A pump served by a suction tank
How important is the tyde?
Hystorical flows and tyde
Hystorical flows + no tyde
2.3 meters at Hanoi + tyde
2.3 meters at Hanoi + no tyde
Comparison
2.3 at Hanoi
historical flow
HistoricalFlows +tyde
HistoricalFlows +no tyde
2.3 m at Hanoi+tyde
2.3 m at Hanoi+no tyde
52 Mcm+45%
2 Mcm
The tyde c
annot be n
eglected
The scenario
(It)
exogenous inputscenario
The scenario29th January
The Design Problem
(It)
scenario
The system model in the Design Problem
Modeling the system 4Tomorrow 10:15 -11:15
The Design Problem
(It)
scenario
Design algorithmTomorrow 11:15 -12:15
Thanks for your attention
XIN CẢM ƠN
SPARCE SLIDES
ICT To
ols
yes
Final (political) decision
reasonable alternatives
2. Conceptualisation
3. Designing Alternatives
4. Estimating effectsS
takeh
old
ers
1. Reconnaissance
5. Evaluation
noMitigation, and compensation,
Agreement?
PIP procedure
Participatory and Integrated Planning procedure
6. Comparison or negotiation
Problem formulationSetting the goal and identifying the constraints
Designing alternatives/options
Selecting the best compromise alternative
How to choose?