Harald Sverdrup1, Anna Hulda Olafsdottir1, Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir2, Deniz Koca3, 1Industrial Engineering, University of Iceand, Reykjavik, Iceland, 2Earth Science, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
3Center for Ecology and Climate, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
STEPS ON THE WAYSTANDING ON THE SHOULDERS OF OTHERS
• 1961-1971; World1-World2; Forrester team, MIT; Industrial dynamics, urban dynamics, world dynamics, the first pioneering basic concept for how a World model may be put together. The model was simplified and aggregated to a high level because of computational constraints of the computers available at the time (Forrester 1961, 1969, 1971) (Economy-oriented).
• 1972-2004; World3; Meadows team, MIT; World dynamics and limits to growth. The model was more elaborate than World2, significantly better parameterized and described in a book “Dynamics of Growth in a Final World” (Meadows et al., 1972, 1974). The model had significant simplifications because of computational constraints of the computers available at the time (Resources-, environment- and economy-oriented).
• 2011-2018; WORLD4 - WORLD5 - WORLD6; Sverdrup team, University of Lund (LTH) and University of Iceland (HI). WORLD6 has reality-based market mechanisms and simulates commodity-, product- and resource price dynamics internally. WORLD6 handles the global economic and financial development, and captures economic cycles of growth, stagnation, and decline. The economy is limited by natural, physical and social capacities. The modules are linked inside so that different resource and policy aspects can be addressed. The model is developed in the STELLA System Dynamics software (Sverdrup et al., 2013, 2018, Sverdrup and Ragnarsdottir 2014, Lorenz et al., 2017). WORLD6 is a new development and has no parts included from the earlier models mentioned (Nature-, resources-, environment-, ecosystems-, population-, society-, politics-, governance-, and economy-oriented)
THE WORLD6 MODEL HAS BEEN A LONG JOURNEY, STARTINGIN 2007, INVOLVING SEVERAL DEVELOPMENT TEAMS
• The Gold project (2007 - The global trade with precious metals; Metals modelling - gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium; Norway and Sweden)
• EU Converge project (2010 - Population, phosphorus and sustainable food production; Britain, Iceland, Sweden, Hungary)
• The Real Change Project (2008 -Tranforming society to sustainability through systemic leadership; Sweden)
• The German SIMRESS project (2013-2017 - Sustainable resource use and the challenges of the energiewende. Germany, Sweden, Iceland)
• The EU Valumics project (2017-2021 - Sustainable food supply, value and decision chains: Iceland, Ireland, Italy, CzechRepublic, Finland)
WORLD6 OVERVIEW
2018
VERSION6.302
WORLD6 ECONOMIC
MODULE
WORLD6 MODEL AS A STELLA ARCHITECT DIAGRAM
THE FEEDBACK SYSTEM OFPRODUCTION, SUPPLY, DEMAND AND CONSUMPTION
THE PRICE IS SIMUATED DYNAMICALLY, USING SYSTEMICCAUSALITIES DEPENDING ON THE KIND OF MARKET
Marketdynamics
Biasedmarket
Oligarchicmarket
Command andcontrol
WORLD6 BASE-LINE RESULTS; LIFE AND DEATH
Basic run population Phosphorus rock supply
DEMAND, SUPPLY, MARKET PRICES AND REALITYTHE PRICE MODEL WORKS IN TESTS
Market prices for; • Energy: oil, coal, natural gas, uranium, thorium,
solar PV, wind, hydropower, geothermal, biofuels• Metals: copper, nickel, tantalum, silver,
molybdenum, cobalt, zinc, lead, gold, platinum, palladium, aluminium, indium, tellurium, antimony, bismuth, lithium, germanium, rare, earths, wolfram, tin, niobium, rhenium, tin, antimony, iron, manganese, chromium, nickel, stainless steel
• Materials: Cement, gravel, sand, cut stone, roundwood, sawn wood, paper, plastics,
• Fertilizer: Phosphorus rock• Food: grain, coffee, salmon, beef, maize, milk,
butter
SUPPLY OF KEY ELEMENTS MAY BECOMEVERY TIGHT
RESOURCE QUALITY IS CONSISTENTLY DECLINING FOR ALL RESOURCES
Iron, Manganese, Chromium, Nickel Copper, Zinc, Lead
COPPER – TAKING STOCK OF THE SITUATION
POPULATION SIZE MATTERS FOR SUSTAINABILITY
Population scenarios Copper supply per person per year
PRICES, AMOUNTS PRODUCED AND MANUFACTURED AND ACTIVITY GIVES GDP
HARD RESOURCE SCARCITY LIMITS PHOTOVOLTAICSNECESSITYTO COMBINE ALL TECHNOLOGIES
Ge, Ga, CdTe, SiAg
Fossil fuels (Oil, gas, coal, peat, uranium, thorium); • Source of energy is unsustainable
and resource stocks aredeclining
• Resources use for extraction aresustainable
Technology-based energy(Photovoltaic, wind); • Source of energy is sustainable• Resources use for extraction
are partly unsustainable
Renewable energy (Hydropower, geothermal, some biofuels); • Source of energy is sustainable• Resources use for extraction is
sustainable• Conditioned on sustainable extraction
levels
FROM BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TO MAKING THE «MAX 2O UP» GOAL
Energy production Business as usual sea level rise
Business as usual
WORLD6 CC impact
UN business as usual impact
90% reduction of all fossil fuel use 2020-2060
Energy production Energy supply per person Meet Max 2o increase goal
Energy supply per person
AS RESOURCE QUALITY DECLINE, COST AND EFFORTGO UP IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN CONSUMPTION
The long perspective from WORLD6 - GDP:Business-as-usual Global
Energiwende
Source Harald Sverdrup, WORLD6, 2018
WHAT ARE THE POLICY INTERVENTION POSSIBILITIES FOR METALS AND MATERIALS?
• Efficiency
• Manufacturing use efficiency
• Recycling, losses and reuse
• Recycling materials from use and waste
• Reuse and retrofitting existing items
• Limit irreversible losses
• Delay times in society
• Longer use for required installations
• Efficiency of recycling of redundant infrastructures and consumables
• Consumption
• Less consumption overall
• Better consumption utility efficiency
• Less wasteful consumption
• Behavioural patterns, social norms and prioritizations change
• Governance and management
• Price interventions, taxations, limits
• Promotions, education, public insights
• System optimization
INSI
GH
TS • Scarcity
• All material resources will get into soft scarcity. Many are already there. Some key materials may get into hard physical scarcity.
• All fossil fuels have a quantifiable end date.
• Substitution • has significant limitations, no substitute for phosphorus exists
• Resource shortages • May cause economic crisis. • Economic crisis may cause risk for social stresses and problems for
governance. • The economic system may get problems before the physical systems.
• Business-as-usual is the most dangerous policy
• Business-as-un-usual has large possibilities for change of trajectory
………….AND THE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES, NEXT STEPS TOWARDS WELL BEING
Policies suggested Energy Resources Social Works?
1. Reduce man-made greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible – Global Energie-wende
Can be done withbetter energy
efficiency
Needs a lot ofspecialty materials
Depends on beingsocially sustainable Yes
2. Help poor nations grow faster – by rapid industrialisation similar to Japan, Korea and China
Challenging energysupply, challenging
pollution risks
High risk for hard scarcity on keytechnological
materials
Limited by corruption and
poor governance
Difficult
3. Reduce unemployment and inequity through more jobs
Can be done in Energiewende
Increases demand ofkey supplies
Social changestresses Yes
4. Further slow population growth – through positive incentives
Decline reduceconsumption
Decline reduceconsumption
Needs global attitude change
Yes
5. UN high population scenarioEnergiewende
becomes far more challenging
Risk that resourcescarcity strikes
Economic crisis and disruptions
Social stresses
Probablynot
We suggested some suggested future policies,We ran WORLD6 to test them..
CO
NC
LUSI
ON
S• A systemic approach is a condition for resolving the challenges.
• Narrow sectorial appoaches are neither systemic, nor sufficient, it is not about adjusting the parameters of the present system, feedbacks co across sectors
• The circular society is systemic in nature and must be designed as such. When society is circular, thatcreates the circular economy
• Goal conflicts will demand to be solved at a systemic level
• Systemic changes need to be multi-sectorial, causally linked and pervasive• Energie-wende is linked to a Resource-wende, that can solve very many problems• Both are about rearranging the basic structure of the systems and resetting parameters• It involves all fundamental systems; industrial, economic and social dynamics• It may imply transformative changes to existing society and existing power-structures• Unresolvable goal conflicts will lead to difficult choices
• Transformative changes take time, • Plan with at least 20 years from start to full implementations (Ref; LRTAP protocol, IPCC progress).
Starting is needed at once (2020+20 = 2040).• Must engage al arenas: Science, Communication, Political