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Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Date post: 29-Jan-2015
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Harry Asmar, Reswara delivered the presentation at IMM’s 2014 Kalimantan Coal Conference. The IMM’s Kalimantan Coal Conference brings together 120+ senior executives, decision makers from government, mining, infrastructure, shipping and supply sectors to discuss new policies and strategies for tackling the current and emerging issues within the burgeoning Kalimantan coal sector. For more information about the event, please visit: http://www.immevents.com/kalicoalconference13
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LOW RANK COAL IN THE FUTURE
Transcript
Page 1: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

LOW RANK COAL IN THE FUTURE

Page 2: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Coal production; Sub-Holding for BEL and Mifa

PT Cipta Kridatama (“CK”)

Contract Mining

99.99%

PT Sumberdaya Sewatama (“SS”)

Power solutions

99.98%

PT Cipta Krida Bahari (“CKB”)

Integrated logistics

99.99%

PT Sanggar Sarana Baja (“SSB”)

Engineering services

99.96%

Sub-Holding for thermal energy IPP

PT Pradipa Aryasatya (“PAS”)

99.9%

Sub-Holding for renewable energy IPP

PT Nagata Bisma Shakti (“NBS”)

99.9% 12.0%

Coal logistics

PT Baruna Dirga Dharma (“BDD”)

99.9%

Shipping

PT Alfa Trans Raya (“ATR”)

99.99%

23.12% 55% 21.88%

99.98%

IPP

PT Metaepsi Pejebe Power Generation (“Meppogen”)

General trading

PT Prima Wiguna Parama (“PWP”)

PT Reswara Minergi Hartama (“Reswara”)

Coal production

PT Bara Energi Lestari (“BEL”)

Coal production

PT Mifa Bersaudara (“Mifa”)

Coal production

99.99%

70.0% 99.99% 99.99%

99.99% 99.99%

Coal production

PT Tunas Inti Abadi (“TIA”)

Port operator & management

PT Pelabuhan Buana Reja (“PBR”)

PT Media Djaya Bersama (“MDB”)

Public

RESWARA WITHIN TMT GROUP

2

Page 3: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

RESWARA WITHIN THE GROUP

Page 4: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

TIA MDB Total

Coal Reserves (MT)

52 159 211

Coal Resources

Measured 32 18 50

Indicated 39 289 328

Inferred 35 148 183

Total 106 455 561

Concession (Ha) 3,074 4,629 7,703

Total Resources: 561 Million Tons

Total Reserves: 221 Million Tons

* Based on Joint Ore Report Committee JORC Report

RESWARA GROUP POTENTIAL

5

Page 5: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

RESWARA GROUP COAL RAMP-UP

ADB GAR 2013 2014 2015 2016

TIA 5400-5600 3900-4100 5 5 6 6

MDB 3300-3517 3100-3400 1 6 10 15

Total (in million MT) 6 11 16 21

4

6

11

16

21

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2013 2014 2015 2016

Title

TIA MDB Total Production Volume

Page 6: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

TIA HAS A STABLE PRODUCTION AFTER 3 YEARS

3

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

TIA SALES VOLUME TRADING SALES VOLUME

Projection 2013

Page 7: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

TIA AT GLANCE

6

Page 8: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

4 4

TIA OPERATION

• TIA was acquired in Dec 2007, commenced commercial production in Aug 2009 and coal sales in Oct 2009

• Coal mining is contracted to ABM subsidiary, CK

• 25 km from pit to port at Bunati

• 9-12 km from port to anchorage point at Bunati

• 8,000 ton barge loading capacity at jetty

• 120,000 tons temporary pile facility at the mining pit

• Logistic advantages: Close to the Ocean

7

Page 9: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Barge Loading Conveyor with 1500mtph capacity

TIA OPERATION

8

Page 10: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

MDB AT GLANCE

9

Page 11: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

MDB INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN MDB INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN

A

A

B

C

D

E

F

±

A Support facilities; camp, workshop, and office.

B Coal processing plant; crusher and stockpile.

C Main haul road.

D Overland conveyor.

E Barge loading and coal rehandling facilities.

F

Transhipment facilities FBOS (Fixed Berth Offshore Shiploader).

C C

D D

F F

10

Page 12: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

MDB OPERATION & CONSTRUCTION

11

Page 13: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Cambodia

India

China

Thailand

OUR REGIONAL MARKET OUR REGIONAL MARKET

12

Page 14: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

LOW AND MEDIUM RANK COAL BUSINESS IN THE FUTURE

LOW AND MEDIUM RANK COAL BUSINESS IN THE FUTURE

12

Page 15: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

I. Coal Supply and Demand Overview for current and

the future

II. Barrier to entry for New Player

III. Uncertainty of Coal Business

IV. Future of Low and Medium Coal Business

Content Content

Page 16: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Domestic Coal Consumption 2012

Page 17: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Indonesian Coal Outlook

Page 18: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Coal is still the best choice as source of energy to produce electricity

Page 19: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

New Coal Fired Power Plant 2013 PLN ̴ 3200 MW will need continuous supply in the future

Page 20: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Global Coal Supply and Demand

Page 21: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Coal Supply to China

Page 22: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Coal Supply and Demand in India

Coal Import composition to India Current Coal Supply and Demand in India

Page 23: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Coal Supply and Demand in India

Indian Coal Supply and Demand Outlook

Indian Power Capacity Addition : 12th Plan

In MW

Page 24: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Coal Market Summary

Coal Industry is still interesting due to demand growth in domestic market and

global market.

China’s Coal demand decrease in the future and will affected to Indonesia due

to Indonesia’s big portion supplies to China

Growth of Coal fired Power Plant in India increase significantly in the next 5

year will make more demand of coal in the future

Over Supply of Coal around the world will make the prices very tight in the

future

Trend of Coal fired plant with using low rank coal in the future will make a low

rank coal business still interesting in the future, but not the price.

High coal demand for power plant will need more investment to build a new

economical coal mining to cover the supplies

Page 25: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

I. Coal Supply and Demand Overview for current and

the future

II. Barrier to entry for New Player

III. Uncertainty of Coal Business

IV. Future of Low and Medium Coal Business

Content Content

Page 26: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Investor need to comply minimum 7 stages in developing a new mine

5. Construction & Development

2. Evaluation & Mine Planning

3. Feasibility Study

4. AMDAL, Detail Planning, & Financing

1. Land Acquisition 2. Permitting 3. Mining Development 4. Infrastructure Development 5. HR & Organization 6. Market Development 7. Social Acceptance through

CSR & Community Development

1. Land Acquisition 2. Permitting 3. Mining Development 4. Infrastructure Development 5. HR & Organization 6. Market Development 7. Social Acceptance through

CSR & Community Development

6. Operation Preparation & Production 1. Operation

Management System

2. EHS Management

System

3. Cost Control

Management System

4. Sustainability

1. Operation

Management System

2. EHS Management

System

3. Cost Control

Management System

4. Sustainability

7. Rehabilitation and Mine Closure

1. Prospecting & Exploration

7 PRIMARY STAGES IN DEVELOPING A NEW MINE

Page 27: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Technical Challenge

• Exploration and work condition at remote area

• Technical expertise (geologist, mine engineering, operation and maintenance, contract &

procurement, logistic, and administration)

• Manufacturing, Processing, equipment and Plant

• Safety, Health, and Environmental system management, monitoring and control

• Technical Reporting and compliances to world class standard

Non-Technical & Social Challenge

• Legal & Permitting

• Financing

• Land Acquisition and Compensation

• Local Community

• Government and Regulation

From two major type of

challenges above, Non

Technical and Social

challenge took a biggest

part nowadays.

• People, System, and Process

Common Challenges In Developing New Mine

Page 28: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

New Mine

Legal &

Permitting

Land

Government

& regulation

Financing Local

Community

Many Rules and Regulation should be

complied (there are 64 Rule & Regulations

that mining company must comply to)

Dispute in Land ownership and unfair

pricing

Unique Community issues in every single

area

High Risk in Developing New Mine will

make more difficult to have funding from

Financial Institution

Uncertainty and inconsistent in Regulation

implementation after decentralization

Primary Challenges In Developing New Mine

Page 29: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

I. Coal Supply and Demand Overview for current and

the future

II. Barrier to entry for New Player

III. Uncertainty of Coal Business

IV. Future of Low and Medium Coal Business

Content Content

Page 30: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Low Rank Coal Industry Current Condition

2.7 4.3

6.1 6.7

10.4

13.8

18.5

27.2

26.1

3.8%

5.1%

6.0% 5.8%

7.6%

11.8% 11.7%

13.4% 13.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Expor Batubara (US$ Billion) % Total Expor

Page 31: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

12

31

Juni 2013 1

4 Mei 2013

2 Juni 2013 Mei 2013

3

5 Feb 2013

6 Feb 2013

Low Rank Coal Industry Current Condition

Page 32: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

32

Coal Price

Decrease in 2012 Reassess production plan

Decreasing Margin

of the company

Respons

Low Rank Coal Industry Current Condition

Page 33: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Increasing of Royalty and export tax implemented

Increasing of Royalty and export tax implemented

Coal margin decrease

Coal margin decrease

Adjust S/R and propose discount rate to contractor

Contractor Contractor Equipment, spare part, wages -> increase

Decreasing production

Discount Rate

Is the project still visible or not?

Stop operations

Hold the project

• Standby Equipment • Revenue decrease • Employee

termination

Pressure to contractor

Fuel Price, Explosive -> Increase

Other pressure to IUP

Low Rank Coal Industry Current Condition

Page 34: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Low Rank Coal Industry Current Condition

Page 35: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

I. Coal Supply and Demand Overview for current and

the future

II. Barrier to entry for New Player

III. Uncertainty of Coal Business

IV. Future of Low and Medium Coal Business

Content Content

Page 36: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Coal Utilization Coal Utilization

COAL

Direct Usage

Conversion

Upgrading

Power Plant

Industries

Liquefaction

Gasification

Kokas

Active Carbon

High Rank Coal

Oil Fuel

Gas Fuel

Electricity

Page 37: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Investor will need much support from government and community

Coal Business will be still interesting in the future subject to:

Global Economic Growth

Successful of Upgrading Technology

Successful of Coal Conversion technology

Commitment of Government to develop coal fired power plant in

Indonesia

Challenges to Develop new mine

Uncertainty of Regulation (implementation of export tax and changing of

royalty rate)

Inconsistency regulation between central government, provincial

government, and local government)

Support from government for clarity of law requirement and land

compensation

Page 38: Harry Asmar, Reswara - Low Rank Coal in the Future

Thank you


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