Harry Lehmann a Coenercat, sessió de Barcelona (25.11.2013)

エ

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ENERGY

RICH

JAPAN

Dr. Harry Lehmann

„Great Transformation“

Energieeffizienz

Mobilität Wasser Management

RessourcenproduktivitätFaktor 10 - X

Elements of a sustainable Development

Erneuerbare Energien

Equity

Technologie Transfer

“New Green Deal”

Aus- / Fortbildung

Nachhaltige Landwirtschaft

Stabiles Finanzsystem

Neues Wohlstandsmodell

Infrastruktur

Globale freie Kommunikation

(Internet)

“Grüne” Chemie

Source: Harry Lehmann, 2004

Germany ´́́́s Progress on Renewable Energy

4

Goals of energy and climate policyTimeline 2050; All relevant sectors; Specific Goals , over 100 specific Measures, Funding


5


100%

Phase out of the individual nuclear power plants

Power in net output2011 2015 2017 2019 2021 2022 total

cut-off in MW 8.422* 1.275 1.284 1.329 4.018 4.039 20.367*2,1 GW nuclear power out of service since 2008


03.06.2013 | Klaus Müschen, German Federal Environment Agency 7

Amendment to the Atomic Energy ActGradual phasing out of nuclear power

� 7 oldest plants + Krümmel:

Immediate decommissioning

� Gradual phasing out of

nuclear power by 2022

� Shutdown years:

2015, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022

Source: UBA

Energiewende historical....

Limits to growth




1973

Oilcrisis-

Club of Rome „Die Grenzen des Wachstums“

Harrisbourgh -

EnergiewendeWachstum und Wohlstand ohne Erdöl und UranÖko-Institut 1979

Die Energiewende

ist möglichFür eine neue

Energiepolitik der Kommunen

Öko-Institut 1985

„3S Pfad“

Tschernobyl

EUROSOLAR

Institutions

1979 1985 1986 1989

Energiewende

9

Unification

Anti-AKW-Bewegung; Gründung der GRÜNEN



Energiewende

1990 1992 1997 2010 20111995

ENERGIEWENDE AUF DEM WEG

• 1990 Stromeinspeisegesetz

• 1990 ff Local and regional Energykonzepts

• 1992 Rio-Conference�� UNFCCC - Goal

• 1997 Kyoto-Protokoll

• 2000 EEG – first Phase Out „Treaty“ – ETS EU

• 2006 40% Goal for Germany

2000 2010

2010: Integriertes Klima- und Energieprogramm (IKEP)

Energiewende



ENK

2011 2013 2014 2017 2018 20192012 2015 2020

BERICHTERSTATTUNG:Energiewende

Novell des EEG

Ausbau der Energieeffizienz

2011: Gesetzespaket zur Energiewende

Novelle EEGBundesnetzpanung

bis 2022: Atomausstieg

Langfristziel bis 2050 Maßnahmen

Erneuerbare und Energieeffizienz für ALLE Anwendungen (Strom, Wärme, Kraftstoffe)!

EE

Netz

2016

Energiewende



Measures to accelerate the transformation of our energy system

� Atomic Energy Act (AtG)

� Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)

� Grid Expansion Acceleration Act (NABEG)

� Energy Industry Act (EnWG)

� Ordinance on the Award of Public Contracts (VgV)

� Energy and Climate Fund

� Building Code on "Climate-friendly development"

� Key points on energy efficiency

� Combined Heat and Power Act

13

dir. 2009/28/EC for renewable energy promotion - main features

o European and national targets for renewable energy deploymento National action plan for renewable deployment

� Main policy instruments� Yearly targets till 2020� All relevant technologies

o Biennial monitoring report to Commission� Detailed documentation of RES sources and development� Action taken to comply with Nation Action Plan

o Common measures between member states� Common power plant construction� Exchange of electricity production� Common use of instruments

o Reduction of obstructions� Access to power supply system� Registration of power plant� Information und training� Administrative

o Sustainability criteria for bio fuelso Guaranties of origin

14

Renewable Energy Sources Act – EEG- basic and necessary features

o priority connection of installations

o priority purchase and distribution of electricity

o guaranteed feed-in tariffs

o independence of public budgets low transfer costs

o low transfer costs

o “Exclusive-use” principle

o Experience and Impact Report to German Parliament

15

Renewable Energy Sources Act- §§§§ 1 Goals

General purpose� facilitate a sustainable energy system, � for climate and environmental protection, � reduce (also external) cost of energy supply,� conserve fossil fuels and� promote development of REN technology

share of RES-E on electricity use

EEG 2000� substantial increase of RES-E� foster Germany’s RES deployment goals

EEG 2004� until 2010/20: increase to at least 12.5/20% of electricity consumption

EEG 2009� until 2020 increase to at least 30% and continuous further increase

EEG 2012� no later than 2020 2030 2040 2050

at least 35% 50% 65% 80%

RES-share of total final energy consumption

Source: Ministry of Environment: Renewable Energy Sources in Figures – April 2013



18

Ic.) Aktuelle EE -Statistik:Zubau installierter Leistung Onshore-Wind

19

Ic.) Aktuelle EE -Statistik:Zubau installierter Leistung Photovoltaik

Share of RES of German energy consumption


GHG Reduction using Renewable Energies


Investment in RES-installations


Revenues from operation of RES-installations


Employment in Germany’s renewable energy sector2004 – 2012


Ownership of RES-installations in Germany

Private Citizen Project Managers

The four largestElectricity Suppliers

otherElectricity Suppliers

Funds, Banks

TradeFarmers

other

Accumulated public funding of energy sources(billion Euro)

26

Hard coal

Lignite

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Renewables

27

Effectiveness versus expected profitwind energy - 2004

Source:

FI

BE-FlandersBE-

WalloniaFR

DE

IE

IT

ES-Market Option

ES-Fixed Price

SEUK

AT

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Annual expected profit [€ Cent/kWh]

Effe

ctiv

enes

s in

dica

tor

Feed-in tariffs Tender Quota/TGC Tax incentives/rebates

28

Policies for RES-E support – EU27

Source: Ministry of Environment: Renewable Energy Sources in Figures – July 2011

29

Development electricity cost for households

30

Development electricity cost for households

31

Composition of electricity price for households

32

Composition of “costs” of EEG

33

Development electricity cost for industry

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Industriestrompreise in D (cent per kWh)

Cost shares for one kilowatt hour (kWh) of electricity for household customers in Germany

Additional costs for customers are only about 1 Eurocent per kWh or

about 3 Euros per month per household.

Renewable energies

Source: BMU publication „Renewable energy sources in figures“

External costs of electricity generation for various options in Germany

Renewable energies

PV plant: system price and EEG feed-in tariffs

36

Source: BSW-Solar

37

Source: RWE Energie AG,RSS GmbH

Photovoltaics

Utility peak power

Bulk power 0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

€/kWh

900 h/a: 0,60 €/kWh

1800 h/a: 0,30 €/kWh

PV-electricity generation costs and market price

38

Development electricity production cost

Development of differential costs of renewable electricity generation in Germany, 2010 to 2050

WaterPhotovoltaicsBiomass/Renewable methaneTotal

WindImports of energyGeothermal energy

Slide 3-cents / kwh

Source – H. Ossenbrink JRC 2013

Slide 3-cents / kwh

Source – H. Ossenbrink JRC 2013

42

lead scenario - differential costs - electricity production

Source: DLR et al: Lead study 2010

43

lead scenario - differential costs - all sectors


44


lead scenario - cumulated differential costs - electricity, heating and fuels

1. Renewable energy sources :

• Rapid, continuous expansion

• Cost-efficient and environmentally friendly

2. Future grids : • Flexible and powerful

• Integration of electricity

from renewable sources

3. Efficiency : • Reduce energy consumption

• Ensure efficiency

„Energiewende“ TODAYA triple approach - 100 measures in the three areas



Expanding the grids

� Grid development plan for a functioning singleEuropean electricity market

� Objective:

□ An interlinked EU electricity grid

□ Basis for an electricity supply almost entirely from renewables by 2050

Source: BMU



Amendment to the Energy Industry Act (EnWG) and Grid Expansion Acceleration Act (NABEG)

� Fundamental principles for smart meters and smart grids

� Coordinated grid planning for transmission grids

� Transparency and public participation

� Specialist planning at Federal Government levelspecifies route corridors for long-distance and crossborder electricity lines

� Use of underground cablesin the 110 kV range

� Cluster connection of offshore wind farms

Source: BMU



Source: ISET, IWET, dena Grid Study 2005, own illustration

(MW)

= 1 GW offshore

Necessary extensions of the extra high voltage transmission network required by further

development of wind power (Source: dena Grid Study)





The Energy and Climate Fund (ECF)

� Growing to more than €3bn per annum by 2013� Funded from the auction proceeds for emissions trading certificates� Allocation:

□ Renewable energies□ Energy efficiency □ Building modernisation□ National and international climate protection □ Environmental projects and research□ Electro-mobility□ Compensation of electricity prices

for energy-intensive companies

Source: BMU

„Energiewende“ today

Source: Agora

„Energiewende“ today

Source: Agora

Scenarios with 100% REN Supply

Limits to growth



54


Harry Lehmann (2009)Source: Harry Lehmann, 1996

eMethan

energy system based on renewable sources

Energy System based on renewables

Benefits of using renewable energies

� Climate protection

� Independence of fossil fuel imports

� Reduction of (international) conflicts

� Low risks for humans and environment

� Local economic and social development especially for poor countries

� Fostering industrial development and export opportunities

RES promotion should harvest all benefits

Archetypes of 100% REN

Decentralized / small

Centralized / big

Harry Lehmann (2009)


Decentralized / small

Centralized / big

National / Local / nearby

International / far away


Archetypen einer EE VersorgungD

ecen

tral

ized

/ sm

all

Centralized

/ big




Archetypes of 100% REND

ecen

tral

ized

/ sm

all

Centralized

/ big



?

?

?

?

?

?

?

??


Three “archetypical” UBA scenarios

• “Local Energy Autarky” (2013, now published):

• Small-scale decentralized energy systems use locally available RE

• No grid connection to outside

• “Regions Network” (2010):

• German Regions use their RE potentials extensively

• Electricity exchange throughout Germany

• Only small share of power imports from neighbouring countries

• “International Large Scale” (2013, under progress):

• Germany‘s and Europe‘s electricity supply is based on all RE potentials in Germany, Europe (large-scale technology projects)

• High import share via a well-developed intercontinental transmission grid


ecen

tral

ized

/ sm

all

Centralized

/ big




LocalAutarky


„Plusenergybuildings“

Rolf Disch

INTERNATIONALE BAUAUSSTELLUNG IBA HAMBURG GMBH

IBA Hamburg – Zukunftskonzept Erneuerbares Wilhelmsburg

Project area of the IBA Hamburg

INTERNATIONALE BAUAUSSTELLUNG IBA HAMBURG GMBH



INTERNATIONALE BAUAUSSTELLUNG IBA HAMBURG GMBHINTERNATIONALE BAUAUSSTELLUNG IBA HAMBURG GMBH


INTERNATIONALE BAUAUSSTELLUNG IBA HAMBURG GMBHINTERNATIONALE BAUAUSSTELLUNG IBA HAMBURG GMBH

100%

85%


ecen

tral

ized

/ sm

all

Centralized

/ big




LocalAutarky


ecen

tral

ized

/ sm

all

Centralized

/ big




LocalAutarky

Intern.Coop

ISuSI

EURO-MED

possible further interconnections

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Geothermal

Biomass

Gas pipelines used for Hydrogen

Trans Med Renewable Energy Collaboration - TREC

Source: TREC Collaboration und Harry Lehmann, 2004


ecen

tral

ized

/ sm

all

Centralized

/ big




LocalAutarky

Intern.Coop


ecen

tral

ized

/ sm

all

Centralized

/ big




LocalAutarky

RegionsCoop

Intern.Coop

Energy Demand in diff. sectors

Germany 2008 and 2050

2008 2050

76

427

667

106

6% 33% 52% 8%0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

TW

h

898

557

974

135

35% 22% 38% 5%0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

TW

h

Quelle: Schulze-Darup

Scenario „Regionen Verbund D – 2050“

120

60

45

5,2

6,4

23,3

Installed Capacity GW

Photovoltaic

Wind energy onshore

Wind energy offshore

Hydropower

Geothermal energy

Waste biomass (biogas)

Leis

tung

(G

W)

Monat

Mittlere, monatliche EE-Einspeisung im Vergleich (2006-2009)

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Jan Feb März April Mai Juni Juli Aug Sept Okt Nov Dez0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90Geothermie Laufwasser Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind Photovoltaik

© FhG IWES

Average, monthly feed-in of renewable electricity from generation capacities in 2050

based on the meteorological years 2006-2009

Feed-in of the renewable energies (2006-2009)

EE-Einspeisung und Last (Meteo-Jahr 2007, Januar)

Tag

Leis

tung

(G

W)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 310

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160Geothermie Laufwasser Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind PV Basislast Gesamtlast mit Lastmanagement

© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES

Feed-in [GW] of all RE and the load curveExample „Winter month“ (December) for the feed-in of renewable energies in

2050, based on the meteorological year 2007

Feed-in of renewable energy and load – per month (wi nter)

EE-Einspeisung und Last (Meteo-Jahr 2007, August)

Tag

Leis

tung

(G

W)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 310

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160Geothermie Laufwasser Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind PV Basislast Gesamtlast mit Lastmanagement

© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES© FhG IWES

Feed-in [GW] of all RE and loadExample „Summer month“ (August) for the feed-in of renewable energies in 2050,

based on the meteorological year 2007

Feed-in of renewable energies and load – per month ( summer)

Storage needed

Gravitational Storage Chemical Storage

H2 or eMethan (SolarMethan)

Electric Storage

Speicher im Größenvergleich

82

Total residual load (with load management and pump storage) in the year 2050, based on data from the meteorological year 2007

Res

idua

l loa

d (G

W)

Capacity gas grid(today)

pumped Storage (today)

pumped Storage Norway (theory)

42 Mio. electricvehicles (theory)

Security of Supply

83

energy storage by linking the power grid with natural gas grid

4 H2 + CO2 ↔ CH4 + H2O [Specht et al, 2010, Sterner, 2009]

Role in a Future Energy System

Liquid

Als geeigneter Standort für unser e-gas Projekt hab en wir den Nordwesten Deutschlands ausgewählt

Werlte

Windpark

Entscheidung für Werlte wegen:

Räumlicher Nähe zu Offshore-Windpark

Nähe zur CO2-Quelle (Biogas-anlage der Fa. EWE)

Infrastruktur

Layout Anlage Werlte

13

Der erste Schritt im Rahmen von Audi balanced mobil ity ist das e-gas Projekt

Entscheidung zum Kauf von vier Offshore-

Windkrafträdern

Vorstandsfreigabe im Dezember 2010

Vier 3,6 MW OWKA mit 53 GWh Strom

Gesamtleistung p.a.

Entscheidung des e-gas-Projekts

Bau einer 6,3 MW e-gas Anlage mit

1.000t e-gas p.a.

Kooperationspartner:

6

Heutige Technologie

Japan

ChubuShikoku

エ

ナ

ジ

ー

・

リ

ッ

チ

・

ジ

ャ

パ

ン

Source: Harry Lehmann et.al. (2002)

Archetypen einer EE VersorgungD

ecen

tral

ized

/ sm

all

Centralized

/ big




LocalAutarky

RegionCoop

Intern.Coop

Dec

entr

aliz

ed/ s

mal

lC

entralized/ big




D-I

LocalAutarky

Intern.Coop

RegionCoop

N-C

Archetypen einer EE Versorgung

Steps... for 100%

Limits to growth


100% REN – Steps...

� Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply



� Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC)




� Efficient and intelligent use of energy





� Alignment of spatial planning (Enough place for Wind)






� Considering other environmental constrains (e.g. Biodiv)







� Building infrastructure (adapted grid and storage systems)








� Considering other constrains – Landarea and Ressources









� Research & Development & Demonstration










� Information & Training and Capacity Building










� Information & Training and Capacity Building

� Obtaining social support for the energy transition



Measures to accelerate the transformation of our energy system

� Atomic Energy Act (AtG)

� Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)

� Grid Expansion Acceleration Act (NABEG)

� Energy Industry Act (EnWG)

� Ordinance on the Award of Public Contracts (VgV)

� Energy and Climate Fund

� Building Code on "Climate-friendly development"

� Key points on energy efficiency

� Combined Heat and Power Act

1. Renewable energy sources :

• Rapid, continuous expansion

• Cost-efficient and environmentally friendly

2. Future grids : • Flexible and powerful

• Integration of electricity

from renewable sources

3. Efficiency : • Reduce energy consumption

• Ensure efficiency

„Energiewende“: A triple approach

100 measures in the three areas

100 % regions

Limits to growth




Active regions for REN

Über 50% sind aktiv, um die Weichen

in Richtung 100% EE zu stellen.

Dr. Peter Moser Ι Ι Folie 105

More than 50% have set off!

RES dynamic in Germany


100% RES scenarios for the district of Osnabrück

2.300 GWh/a heat from RES (100%)

3.900 GWh/a electricity from RES (150%)

How can regions meet the target?


1. The A.L.T

EnergieRegion Aller-Leine-Tal

107− Target: get a 100%-RES+Region− Good-Practice example for participation of inhabitants

− Consists of 8 (joint)communities− 75.000 inhabitants, 765 qkm

EnergieRegion Aller-Leine -Tal

1. Development in the A.L.T.− 2009/10: climate protection concept for 114 municipal

buildings− implementation of RES in touristical aspects:

„EnergieRoute“ for cyclists with 44 stations− 2010/11: energy study for the hole A.L.T. − 2010/11: initiation of an energy cooperative; not successful− 2011: study of geothermal energy in the A.L.T.

− Mayor is part of the „Echo-Gruppe“ (consulting group) of the project 100ee-Regions

− 2012: Einstellung eines Klimaschutzmanagers108


2. Datas for RES in the A.L.T.

plants install. capacity investigations netto ca. biogas 18 10,13 MW € 42,0 Mio.wind 54 87,62 MW € 127,5 Mio.water 5 5,39 MW € 0,1 Miophotovoltaic 710 10,21 MW € 26,5 Mio.solarthermal 10.350 qm € 13,3 Mio.sum of the last 15 years: around € 209 Mio. (estimati on)

� 2.800 € for each inhabitant in the A.L.T.109


4. Energy balance for the A.L.T.

Demand in GWH supply by RES in GWHElectricity (in 2010) 267,1* Water 28,5 (10,7 %)

Wind 169,7 (63,5 %)Biogas 80,1 (30 %)Photovoltaic 8,4 (3,1 %)Sum 286,7 (107,3%)

�� Exess 19,6 GWH

* Electricity demand in 2009: 251 GWH / in 2008: 261 GWH / 2007: 276 GWH 110



5. Energy study for the A.L.T.

Tagets of the study:- Answer the question if 100% RES are possible- Show the potentials for RES and energy savings in the A.L.T.Contents of the study:- Actual status of energy demand in electricity and heat sector- Status of RES production- Regional value creation from RES and energy savings- Potential analysis of RES, geothermal energy and wood- Development of model projects

111



5. The study: first results

Energy demand in 2008:Electricity: 261 GWHHeat: 828 GWHMobility: 851 GWHSum: 1.940 GWH

112


Success Factors

� Key participants

� Strong partners in politics and economy

� On-site energy supplier

� Networking with other participants

� Mix of renewable energy sources

� Sustainable use of resources

� Sufficient financial resources

� Competent process management

� Regional energy sectors

� Convince the centre of RES

Sources: Author‘s research, NOVA Institut, BAUM, u.a.

1 ton per cap and year

Limits to growth


greenhouse gas neutral Germany in 2050 - GHG emissions in million tonnes of CO2-eq

Source category 1990 2009 Scenario 2050

1. Energy 1.048 820 0

1.1 Energy sector 428 342

1.2 Manufacturing industries and construction

177 102

1.3 Transport 185 188

1.3.1 International airtransport

12 25

1.3.2 International maritime transport

8 9

1.4 Other combustionsystems

208 143

1.5 Fugitive emissions 30 11

2. Industrial processes 95 75 13

3. Solvents and otherproduct uses

4 2 1

4. Agriculture 83 69 31-35

5. LULUCF - 28 17 13

6. Waste 43 12 3

Total 1,245 995 61-65

greenhouse gas neutral Germany in 2050

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1990 2010 Scenario 2050

GH

G e

mis

sion

s in

mill

ion

tonn

es o

f C

O2

-eq

Waste

LULUCF

Agriculture

Industrial processes, Solvents and ot her product uses

Transport

Energy (wit hout Transport)- 95%

Need for a Systemic Policy ApproachClimate Change Mitigation and Resource Productivity

Liquid

Save the Date: International Conference

„Elements of a greenhouse gas neutral society“

10th and 11th of October in Berlin, Germany

•How can an industrialized society sharply cuts is greenhouse gas emissions? We will discuss diverse approaches and measures.

•The conference will include sessions on:

– Energy supply based on 100% renewable energy sources

– Approaches in sectors such as traffic, agriculture and food, waste & resources

– Industrial process related emissions

– Concepts and challenges in civil aviation and maritime transport

– Concepts and challenges: regional to local scale

•More information on www.ghgns.eu

100% and more ...

is possible

Limits to growth


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Harry Lehmann a Coenercat, sessió de Barcelona (25.11.2013)

Technology