Harry S. Dent, Jr.Dent Research

Dent Business Academy

Business Strategies for the Winter Season

Consumer Life Cycle and

Micro Demographic Opportunities

Session 5:

Charts

15 19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

total expenditure

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Age

Aver

age

Ann

ual E

xpen

ditu

res

Total Consumer Spending

Chart 5-1

50-53

46

Micro Trends 1Sp

endi

ng

20Age

25 30 35 45

20

Workforce Entry

2628

Childbirth- Infant Furniture

3133

25

Childcare/ Babysitting

First/Starter Home

Marriage

4142

Mortgage Interest; Trade-Up Homes

Trade-up Home; Potato Chips/Groceries

First Car

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau Chart 5-2

Micro Trends 2

45Age

48 51

4846

Spen

ding

53College Tuition

Motorcycles;Vacation Homes

Furniture; Tires

43 54

51 Autos

Home Improvement

54

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau Chart 5-3

Mid-Life Cycle

Micro Trends 3Sp

endi

ng

55Age

60 65 70 75 80 85

China/ Dinnerware

55

58

Life Insurance; Doctor’s Fees

60

Garden/ Lawn Care

70

Vacation and Retirement Homes

77

Nursing Homes

81

Prescription Drugs

Hospitals; Travel

65 Cruise Ships

74

Medicare Co-Pay

84

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau Chart 5-4

Elderhood

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

2020

2024

2028

2032

2036

2040

20

40

60

80

100

120

-1,000,000.0

-500,000.0

0.0

500,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,500,000.0

2,000,000.0

2,500,000.0

3,000,000.0

Real Home Prices, leftU.S. peak buyers (41) minus (79) year olds, right

100=

2005

Data Source: US Census Bureau, Dallas Federal Reserve, 2013

U.S. Net Housing Demand

Chart 5-5

Consumer Real Estate CycleSp

endi

ng

20Age

25 30 35 40 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 90

26-27

Trade-Up Homes

Apartment & Shopping Centers

Offices45

20-21

41-43

60

85

65Vacation & Retirement Homes

84

Resorts

Nursing Homes

31-32

Starter Homes

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau Chart 5-6

Best Aging Markets in Order of Time

• Discretionary healthcare, wellness and weight-loss• Overseas travel• Health, life insurance and financial planning• Recreational vehicles (RVs)• Cruise ships• Downtown condos/town homes and exurban retirement

communities• Landscaping and home maintenance services• Convenience and drug stores• Pharmaceuticals and vitamins• Funeral homes and cremation services• Nursing homes and assisted living facilities

Chart 5-7

1913

1918

1923

1928

1933

1938

1943

1948

1953

1958

1963

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

Top 1% Income Share Top 10% Income Share Top 1% Wealth Share

Data Source: Alvaredo, Facundo, Anthony B. Atkinson, Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez, The World Top Incomes Database, h ttp://g-mond.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/topincomes, 2013, Edward Wolff, as printed in Wealth and Democracy and New York University, 2010

Top 1% and 10% Income and Wealth

Chart 5-8