© Fraunhofer ISE
SAFE YIELDS FROM PV POWER PLANTS
Harry Wirth
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
PV Investor Day
Recife, June 17th, 2015
www.ise.fraunhofer.de
© Fraunhofer ISE
SAFE YIELDS FROM PV POWER PLANTS
Harry Wirth
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
PV Investor Day
Rio, June 19th, 2015
www.ise.fraunhofer.de
© Fraunhofer ISE
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OUTLINE
1. Quality, bankability and investability
2. Project development
3. Engineering
4. Procurement
5. Construction
6. Operation
7. Conclusions
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Fraunhofer ISEFields of Activity
� Photovoltaics
� Silicon PV
� Concentrator PV
� Emerging PV
� PV Modules and Power Plants
� Solar Thermal Technology
� Energy Efficient Buildings
� Hydrogen Technology
� Energy System Technology
Fot
os ©
Fra
unho
fer
ISE
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Photovoltaic Modules, Systems and Reliability
� Reliability monito-ring, testing, simu-lation for solar appl.
� Material and degra-dation analysis
� Testlab PV Modules
Fields of Activity
� Interconnection technology
� Module efficiency and new concepts
� Module Technology Center (Module-TEC)
� Yield simulation
� Module characteris.
� Plant performance verification
� CalLab PV Modules
PV Module Technology Weathering and Reliability
Quality Assurance PV Modules and Systems
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1. Quality, bankability and investabilityQA from Stakeholder‘s Perspective
PV Power PlantEPC delivers independent,
comprehensive QA
Bank (DSCR, debt
service)
Investor (cash flow, LCOE, ROI,
resale)
Insurance (risk mitigation)
QA: Quality Assurance
DSCR: Debt Service Coverage Ratio
LCOE: Levelized Cost of Energy
ROI: Return on Investment
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Quality, bankability and investabilityLevelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and Quality
yield electric total
cost totalLCOE =
Actualirradiance
(Y1…Yn)
Initial modulepower @ STC
(as installed)
Initial Performance Ratio (PR)
Annual degradation
(power, PR)
Investment O&M Removal
STC: Standard Test Conditions
O&M: Operation and Maintenance
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Quality, bankability and investabilityQA and Performance
Measured PR for 300 PV plants in 2013 (ISE), blue bars represent new plants with basic initial quality assurance and continuous O&M.
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Quality, bankability and investabilityModule Degradation and Service Life
3. Module logistics, installation (possible
damage)
1. Module design & materials
(type certificate)
2. Conformity, QA (supply chain & production)
4. System design(shading, string potential,
natural ventil.)
5. Local climate(temperature, UV,
soiling, salt, corrosivity)
Annual degradation rate, service life
(power, safety, appearance)
Module IEC certificates are only the first step!
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Model calculation for 80% DSCR Investment impact
� -5% electric yield -> -27% cash flow
� +1%abs. annual O&M cost -> -62% cash flow -16% profit over service life
� +0.5%abs. annual degradation -> -8% profit over service life
QA SensitivityQuality, bankability and investability
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Quality, bankability and investability
Project Development
� Solar ressource assessment
� PR potential assessment
� Environmental stress assessment
*in cooperation with VDE Testing and Certification Institute
� Module power and energy rating
� Yield assessment
� Technology benchmarking
Engineering
� Performance monitoring
� Performance verification
Operation
� Representative sampling
� Module check
- performance
- reliability
- workmanship
Procurement
QA along Project Phases
� Final power plant test
� “Quality Tested” PV plant certifi-cation*
Construction& Commiss.
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Quality, bankability and investability
Project Development
� Solar ressourceassessment
� PR potential assessment
� Environmental stress assessment
*in cooperation with VDE Testing and Certification Institute
� Final power plant test
� “Quality Tested” PV plant certifi-cation*
Construction& Commiss.
� Module power and energy rating
� Yield assessment
� Technology benchmarking
Engineering
� Performance monitoring
� Performance verification
Operation
� Representative sampling
� Module check
- performance
- reliability
- workmanship
Procurement
QA along Project Phases
© Fraunhofer ISE
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2. Project development
� geomodelling based on satellite data and ground measurements
� performance ratio potential assessment and technology benchmarkig
Solar Ressource Assessment
Classification of 100 locations into 12 irradiation regions
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Project developmentSolar Ressource Assessment: Global Dimming and Brightening
Moving average of the mean GHI anomalies (black) and the trend lines
(red for the dimming period and green for the brightening period)
Müller B, Wild M, Driesse A, Behrens K. Rethinking solar resource assessments in the context of global dimming and brightening. Solar Energy 2014; Volume 99.
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Project developmentEnvironmental stress assessment: Soiling
E.Klimm, L.Ost, T.Lorenz, M.Köhl, Gleisdorf SOLAR (2014)
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Project developmentEnvironmental stress assessment: Soiling
J.Hermann, K.Slamova, R.Glaser, M.Köhl, SHC (2013)
SOILING RISK MODEL
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Project developmentEnvironmental stress assessment: Atmospheric Corrosivity
K.Slamova, R.Glaser, C.Schill, S.Wiesmeier, M.Köhl, J. Photon. Energy. 2(1), (2012)
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Project Development
� Solar ressource assessment
� PR potential assessment
� Environmental stress assessment
*in cooperation with VDE Testing and Certification Institute
� Module power and energy rating
� Yield assessment
� Technology benchmarking
Engineering
� Performance monitoring
� Performance verification
Operation
� Representative sampling
� Module check
- performance
- reliability
- workmanship
Procurement
3. Engineering
� Final power plant test
� “Quality Tested” PV plant certifi-cation*
Construction& Commiss.
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Module Performance Testing and Energy Rating (IEC 61853)
module temperature (°C)irradiation
(W/m²)15 25 ~47 50 75
1100 X X HTC1000 X STC X X900 X X X X800 X X NOCT X X700 X X X X600 X X X X500 LTC X X400 X X X300 X X X200 X LIC100 X X
I-V curves, standard conditions according toIEC 61853-1.
Table of irradiation and temperature valuesfor power measurements (grey: required by
standard).
3. Engineering
© Fraunhofer ISE
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EngineeringPR prediction uncertainty
Differences between monitored (left) and predicted (right) Performance Ratio (PR) losses
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Project Development
� Solar ressource assessment
� PR potential assessment
� Environmental stress assessment
*in cooperation with VDE Testing and Certification Institute
� Module power and energy rating
� Yield assessment
� Technology benchmarking
Engineering
� Performance monitoring
� Performance verification
Operation
� Representative sampling
� Module check
- performance
- reliability
- workmanship
Procurement
4. Procurement
� Final power plant test
� “Quality Tested” PV plant certifi-cation*
Construction& Commiss.
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Flash list verification through representative samples
Comparison of manufacturer data with Fraunhofer ISE measurement values
-10
0
10
0 15286
Pm
pp
[±%
]
complete, sorted flash list
representative samples
measurement before LID
measurement after LID
4. Procurement
Jantsch M, Dirnberger D, Neuberger F. Optimized procedures for representative samples from PV module batches. 27th European PVSEC, Frankfurt, 2012.
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Quality Benchmarking
Definition of criterions, selection of modules
Performance verification and visual inspection
Power rating and reliability testing
supplementary tests
Example | Customized Test Protocol
Ph
ase
2P
ha
se 1
Ph
ase
3O
pti
on
s
Power at STCLight Induced
Degradation
Electrolumines-
cence (EL)
Visual
Inspection
Report with
analysis of the
results
Performance verification
Basic Reliability TestingCharacterization
Power RatingSensitivity to
Cell Cracks (TC)
Potential
Induced Deg.
(PID)
Report with
analysis of the
results
Material TestingEnhanced Reliability Testing
Extreme
Climates
Sensitivity to
Snail-Trails,
Yellowing ...
Ultra-Violet
Light Test (UV)Gel Content Peel test
Sensitivity to
Snail-Trails
(DH, UV)
Visual inspection
Selection of
samples
Definition of
Procedure and
Criterions
Procurement
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Measurement precisionProcurement
The accredited photovoltaic calibration laboratory „CalLab PV Modules“ has been considered as one of the world‘s leading labs since 1986.
� high precision module measurement capabilities are the basis for procurement QA
� Highly accurate performance measurement (uncertainty ± 1.6%)
� Regular round robin tests with leading labs
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Project Development
� Solar ressource assessment
� PR potential assessment
� Environmental stress assessment
*in cooperation with VDE Testing and Certification Institute
� Module power and energy rating
� Yield assessment
� Technology benchmarking
Engineering
� Performance monitoring
� Performance verification
Operation
� Representative sampling
� Module check
- performance
- reliability
- workmanship
Procurement
5. Construction
� Final power plant test
� “Quality Tested” PV plant certifi-cation*
Construction& Commiss.
© Fraunhofer ISE
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5. Construction
� On site analysis by experienced team
� Visual assessment for analysis of technical design
� Thermographic imaging (defective modules, faulty contact points)
� PID check
� Performance Ratio (PR) assessment
Final power plant test
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ConstructionReference Project
� Europe‘s largest Thin Film PV power plant
� 1.5 Mill. First Solar PV modules
� 115 SMA inverters
� EPC: Belectric
� Equity: Commerz Real
� Power Plant Testing: Fraunhofer ISE
128 MW power plant, Templin, Germany
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ConstructionReference Project
� Stadium Pituacu in Salvador da Bahia equipped for FIFA Worldcup 2014
� Latin America’s first PV stadium, located in Brazil
� Power Plant Testing, scientific support: Fraunhofer ISE
Stadium with 400 kW PV system
1 2
34 5
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ConstructionVDE-ISE PV Power Plant Certification
Farnung B, Bostock P, Brückner J, Kiefer K. 40th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference , Denver, Colorado, 2014.
© Fraunhofer ISE
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ConstructionReference Project
� World’s largest single axis tracking PV facility
� 704,160 First Solar PV modules
� EPC: First Solar
� Plant Certification: VDE & Fraunhofer ISE 50 MW, Macho Springs, Luna County, NM, USA
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Project Development
� Solar ressource assessment
� PR potential assessment
� Environmental stress assessment
*in cooperation with VDE Testing and Certification Institute
� Module power and energy rating
� Yield assessment
� Technology benchmarking
Engineering
� Performance monitoring
� Performance verification
Operation
� Representative sampling
� Module check
- performance
- reliability
- workmanship
Procurement
6. Operation
� Final power plant test
� “Quality Tested” PV plant certifi-cation*
Construction& Commiss.
© Fraunhofer ISE
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6. OperationPerformance Verification
� High level of measurement accuracy achieved with calibrated sensors (±2%)
� Daily evaluation
� Multi-parameter monitoring for analysis of system and components
� 300 monitoring systems currently in use with detailed web portal, scientific analysis and annual reports
System performance ratio development
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7. Conclusion
� Quality assurance that is
� independent
� comprehensive
� precise
� provided by experienced staff
… can substantially increase the project value for all stake-holders
… at cost < 0.5% of the total project cost
© Fraunhofer ISE
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Thank You Very Much for Your Attention!F
otos
© F
raun
hofe
r IS
E
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
Harry Wirth
www.ise.fraunhofer.de