HART

HART RESEARCHA S S O T E SC I A

Nationwide Survey Among 1,009 2012 VotersConducted October 25-30, 2013; M.O.E. +/-3.1%

for

Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments

Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for 2

Overview of Findings A debate framed in terms of how much to cut federal

spending means playing on Republicans’ turf. Avoid this trap by going on offense on tax fairness: increasing revenue from the wealthy and corporations.

Voters reject a cuts-only approach to the budget, and strongly support revenue from wealthy/corporations.

Public says replace at least half of sequester cuts by closing corporate tax loopholes and ending tax breaks for wealthy.

Voters want job creation in budget equation, not singular focus on deficit. But public still desires deficit reduction and limiting spending.

Little public support for reducing high-end or corporate tax rates as part of tax reform.


More confidence in Democrats

All voters Confidence in Democrats

76%24%3%

81%4%26%

Confidencein GOP

4%28%73%

2%73%22%

Democrats Enjoy Modest Advantage at Beginning of Budget Talks

DemocratsIndependentsRepublicans

Generic House Vote:DemocratRepublicanSwing voters

In whom do you have more confidence to have the right approach in trying to reach a budget agreement dealing with government spending and taxes?

More confidence in Republicans

Much more23%

Much more21%

39%33%


Which budget plan do you prefer?

Public Wants a Mix of Revenue and Spending Cuts, Not a Cuts-Only Budget

Budget that increases tax revenue from the wealthy and corporations and also cuts spending

Budget that cuts spending, with no tax increases

+17

39%

56%


Public Wants a Mix of Revenue and Spending Cuts, Not a Cuts-Only Budget

Which budget plan do you prefer?

All voters

DemocratsIndependentsRepublicans

Republicans: Tea Party Non-Tea Party Men Women

Revenue/Cuts

56%

74%57%33%

23%45%27%40%

CutsOnly

39%

21%38%61%

73%47%69%52%

2014 swing votersModeratesSen. Battleground StatesRed State/Dem Senator

MenWomen

White non-college gradsWhite college grads

NortheastSouthMidwestWest

Revenue/Cuts

67%69%59%54%

50%61%

55%58%

62%49%55%63%

CutsOnly

27%27%32%38%

46%32%

40%38%

35%45%39%33%


28%

67%

36%

58%

In each pair, which budget plan do you prefer?

Voters Want Budget to Raise Revenue from Wealthy and Corporations – Especially by Closing Loopholes

Budget that closes corporate tax loopholes and limits tax breaks for the wealthy

Budget that does not increase taxes on any American

+39

+22

Budget that increases tax revenue from the wealthy and corporations

Budget that does not increase taxes on any American


28%

68%

Which better describes the budget priorities you would like Congress to follow?

Americans Want Congress to Focus on Both Jobs and the Deficit, Not Deficit Alone

Focus on strengthening the economy and creating jobs, while also tackling our deficit responsibly

Focus on getting our budget deficit under control and bringing down the national debt

+40


18%

56%

18%

Allow full spending cutsto take effect

All voters

Voters Want the Sequester Reduced, But Not CancelledIn the coming year, the automatic spending cuts will reduce domestic and military spending by $110 billion if Congress takes no action. Which is the best way for Congress to deal with these automatic spending cuts?

Reduce spending cuts

somewhatCancel

spending cuts

Initial View of Automatic Spending Cuts/Sequester

Familiar with/favorable 22%

Familiar with/unfavorable 29%

Not sure/not familiar with 49%


34%

50%

27%

53%

In each pair, which approach for dealing with the automatic spending cuts do you prefer?

Voters Favor Replacing Automatic Cuts with Revenue

Reduce the spending cuts by 50% and replace them with new tax revenue from the wealthy and corporations

Allow the full spending cuts to take effect +26

Cancel the spending cuts and replace them with new tax revenue from the wealthy and corporations

Allow the full spending cuts to take effect +16


8%

11%

15%

18%

19%

34%

42%Education

Military

College loans/tuition assistance

Food safety

Medical research

Nutrition programs

Job training

Which Sequester Cuts Most Worry the Public?

Which one or two of these spending cuts concern you the most?

Bigger Concern about Sequester

All Voters

Democrats

Independents

Republicans

Servicecuts

44%

55%41%

33%

800,000jobs

31%

30%

31%

34%


36%

28%

57%

54%

In each pair, which budget plan do you prefer?

Framing the Debate: Stopping Budget Cuts vs. Increasing Spending

Budget that keeps federal spending at the current level

A budget that cuts federal spending on programs like education and medical research by $50 billion

A budget that increases federal spending on programs like education and medical research by $50 billion

Budget that keeps federal spending at the current level -18

+29


Opposition to offsetting Sequester with Entitlement Cuts

Which approach for dealing with the automatic spending cuts do you prefer?

46%

22%

Avoid spending cuts this year, paid for by reducing spending on Medicare and Social Security in future years

Allow the full spending cuts to take effect

-24

Which is the better way to replace the sequester spending cuts?

12%

70%

By eliminating tax breaks for the wealthy and big corporations

By reducing spending on Social Security and Medicare in future years +58


Strong Opposition to Entitlement Cuts

85% oppose asking seniors to pay more for Medicare.

83% oppose cutting Medicaid health coverage. 67% oppose reducing Social Security COLA. Call “entitlements” by their real name: Voters favor

cutting “spending on entitlements” by 17 points, but oppose cuts in "spending on Social Security and Medicare" by 65 points.


45%

50%

53%

54%

51%

59%Close tax loopholes to ensure corporations pay

equally on foreign profits

Buffett Rule: minimum 30% rate on millionaires

End loophole for corporate meals/entertainment

End loophole letting Wall St hedge fund mgrs pay lower

rate than middle class

Close loophole to avoid taxes by shifting income to

offshore tax havens

End special tax breaks for oil and gas companies

79%*

62%

62%

Strongly approve Somewhat approve

71%

68%

Strong Support for Progressive Revenue Measures

*70% oppose lowering the tax rate U.S. corporations pay on foreign profits.

69%


82%

9%

How should tax revenue from closing corporate loopholes and limiting deductions for wealthy be used?

Use Tax Reform Revenue for Public Investment and Deficit Reduction, not Rate Cuts

Democrats: "It's time to stop corporate tax dodging and invest in the U.S. again. If we close tax loopholes for corporations that ship profits and jobs offshore, we can raise billions of dollars to invest in America--making classrooms less crowded, improving roads and bridges, and making us energy independent."

Republicans: "We need a corporate tax system that ensures our companies can compete against foreign companies on a level playing field. Our tax system needs to be changed so that companies bring their overseas earnings back home to create jobs and invest in American workers.

Reduce deficit/make

new investments

Reduce tax rates oncorporations/wealthy

With which statement about corporate tax reform do you agree more?

55%

35%


Democrats

Democratic Message on Revenue and Services Wins Budget Debate

With which statement on the budget and taxes do you agree more?

DEMOCRATS: "It's wrong to balance the budget on the backs of the middle class by relying only on cuts to vital programs such as medical research and education. Instead of cutting cancer research, we should require millionaires to pay a tax rate as high as the middle class pays. Instead of cutting funding for schools, let's end tax breaks for corporations that send American jobs offshore. If we ask the rich and big corporations to pay their fair share of taxes, we can be fiscally responsible and protect the middle class."

REPUBLICANS: "The best way to get our economy growing again and create jobs is to reduce federal spending and bring down the budget deficit. We must not continue the irresponsible and unsustainable spending that has left us with a $17 trillion debt that threatens the future for our children and grandchildren. And the last thing we need is further tax hikes that will kill jobs and hurt our economy--we don't have a deficit problem because we tax too little, we have it because we spend too much."

Agreemuch more35%

Republicans

Agreemuch more27%

53%

40%

+13


Democrats

Democratic Message on Revenue, Jobs, and Services Wins Budget Debate

With which statement on the budget and taxes do you agree more?

DEMOCRATS: "Our highest priority is to create the conditions for job creation, economic growth, and prosperity built from the middle-out, not the top down. We should replace harmful automatic spending cuts with smart, balanced deficit reduction, while making essential investments in education, job training, and infrastructure to create jobs for the American people. And we should ask the wealthy and large corporations to pay their fair share of taxes, rather than hurt our communities by cutting healthcare, education, and public safety."

REPUBLICANS: "The best way to get our economy growing again and create jobs is to reduce federal spending and bring down the budget deficit. We must not continue the irresponsible and unsustainable spending that has left us with a seventeen trillion dollar debt that threatens the future for our children and grandchildren. And the last thing we need is further tax hikes that will kill jobs and hurt our economy--we don't have a deficit problem because taxes are too low, we have it because the government spends too much."

Agreemuch more35%

Republicans

Agreemuch more29%

54%

41%

+13


We should end tax breaks for companies that ship jobs and profits offshore, and level the playing field for small businesses that create jobs in America.

We should close tax loopholes for large corporations that ship jobs offshore, and instead use that money to invest in jobs in America by improving our roads and bridges and rebuilding manufacturing.

Instead of cutting education funding for our children, we should ask millionaires to pay at least as high a tax rate as their secretaries.

It's better to end huge tax subsidies to oil and gas companies making record profits than to make seniors pay more for Medicare.

Strongest Democratic Messages Focus on Tax/Spending Tradeoffs

Very Convincing Reason to Support Democrats’ Budget Priorities

55%

54%

50%

48%

Weaker messages: 1) We’ve already cut $1.9 trillion and reduced deficit by half, so time to focus on jobs not just deficit (29%); 2) We need a balanced approach to deficit reduction, so for every $1 in cuts should be $1 in revenue (28%).


We need leaders to compromise to avoid another crisis, but nearly every Republican in Congress has signed an irresponsible pledge promising that they will never vote to raise even one penny of revenue by closing tax loopholes for the wealthy and big corporations.

Republicans in Congress are proposing irresponsible new tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, while putting the entire burden of deficit reduction on the backs of the middle class and vulnerable families.

Republicans in Congress favor giving more tax breaks to the wealthiest Americans and large corporations, while demanding cuts in services our families depend on, like college loans, nutrition assistance for seniors, and Head Start.

Republicans in Congress are breaking their promise to seniors by pushing to end the Medicare guarantee and replace it with a voucher plan that shifts costs to seniors.

Republicans in Congress are protecting tax breaks for companies that ship jobs offshore, taking jobs away from American workers and hurting our communities.

Strongest Criticisms of GOP Hit Refusal to Raise Revenue from Wealthy/Corporations

Very Serious Concern about Republicans’ Budget Priorities55%

54%

53%

50%

49%



Initial View

Budget Debate Strengthens Democrats’ PositionIn whom do you have more confidence to have the right approach in trying to reach a budget agreement dealing with government spending and taxes?

More confidence in GOP

Much more23%

Much more21%

39%33%


More confidence in GOP

Much more31%

Much more23%

44%

33%

Post-Messaging View

+6 +11

+16 among swing voters


14%

29%

31%

18%

30%

33%Reduces federal spending

Brings down budget deficit

Doesn’t increase taxes on anyone

Increases federal spending

Doesn’t do enough to reduce deficit

Raises taxes

Republicans Have Much More to Fear Than Democrats from Tax IssueWhich one of these is the best reason to consider supporting the Republicans’ budget proposal?

Which one of these is your biggest concern about the Democrats' budget proposal?

On taxes, voters are more concerned that the Republicans will go too far in protecting tax breaks for the wealthy and large corporations (44%) than that the Democrats will go to far in raising taxes (35%).


Message Conclusions A debate framed as how much to cut federal spending means

playing on Republicans’ turf. Avoid this trap by going on offense on tax fairness: increasing revenue from the wealthy and corporations.

Strong tax tradeoff messages (e.g. schools vs. Buffett rule) are powerful, especially if closing loopholes.

Establish context as threat of automatic cuts, especially in education. Democrats are preventing irresponsible cuts, not increasing spending.

Hitting the GOP: Irresponsible Pushing new tax breaks & loopholes for wealthy/corporations Refuse to raise even one penny of revenue by closing loopholes Balancing budget on backs of middle class


Recommended Core Budget Message

It's wrong to put the entire burden of deficit reduction on the backs of the middle class. Republicans are proposing to cut Social Security and Medicare, but at the same time they refuse to consider raising even one penny of revenue by closing corporate tax loopholes or ending tax breaks for the wealthy. Let's ask millionaires to pay at least as high a tax rate as their secretaries, instead of cutting education, Social Security, and Medicaid. We should close tax loopholes for corporations that ship jobs offshore, and use that money to invest in jobs in America by improving our roads and bridges. If we ask the rich and big corporations to pay their fair share of taxes, we can be fiscally responsible and protect the middle class.

HART RESEARCHA S S O T E SC I A

Nationwide Survey Among 1,009 2012 VotersConducted October 25-30, 2013; M.O.E. +/-3.1%

for

Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments

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