Hatchery Subyearling Survival Lower Granite to McNary Dam

1998 to 2007(preliminary results)

Fish Passage CenterFish Passage Center

Overview

PIT-tagged Hatchery Subyearling Chinook PIT-tagged Hatchery Subyearling Chinook passing LGR dam during two-week blocks from passing LGR dam during two-week blocks from May 20 to July 15 each yearMay 20 to July 15 each year

Estimate Survival and Travel Time for blocksEstimate Survival and Travel Time for blocks Assign average environmental variables during Assign average environmental variables during

passage such as Flow, Spill, Temperature and passage such as Flow, Spill, Temperature and Water Transit TimeWater Transit Time

Show bivariate plots of Reach Survival and Show bivariate plots of Reach Survival and environmental variables.environmental variables.

Lower Granite to McNary Dam Reach

Timing of Subyearling fall Chinook at LGR Dam in 2006 compared to Historic Timing

5/3 5/31 6/28 7/26 8/23 9/20 10/18

Hist Av 95 to 99 Hist 00 to 05 Run-At-Large 2006

CJRAP HCD PLAP

NPTH BCCAP SNAK 15W

CLWR 13W

Survival for Hatchery Subyearling Chinook LGR to McN 1998 to 2006 with 95% CI’s

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Su

rviv

al

LG

R t

o M

cN

(9

5%

CI)

5/20-6/2 6/3-6/16 6/17-6/30 7/01-7/14

Comparison of Environmental conditions at LGS 1998 to 2007

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

5/1 5/8 5/15 5/22 5/29 6/5 6/12 6/19 6/26 7/3 7/10 7/17 7/24 7/31

Sp

ill (

Kc

fs)

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

0

50

100

150

200

250

5/1 5/8 5/15 5/22 5/29 6/5 6/12 6/19 6/26 7/3 7/10 7/17 7/24 7/31

Dis

ch

arg

e (

Kcfs

)

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20052006 2007

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

5/1 5/8 5/15 5/22 5/29 6/5 6/12 6/19 6/26 7/3 7/10 7/17 7/24 7/31

AvT

emp

(C

)

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Flows in 2007 were low from late May through the end of July; similar to 2001

Spill proportion was high in 2007 but volumes were low

Temperatures were warm in 2007 similar to 2005 and 2006

Hatchery Subyearling Chinook Survival vs Avg Spill Pct LGS, LMN, IHR, McN

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5

Avg Spill (Percent) LGS, LMN, IHR, MCN

Su

rviv

al

LG

R t

o M

CN

Weighted Regression AH 2007

y=0.36151 + 0.84195x

adj R2 = 0.57, p = 0.0000

Water Transit Time

WTT--Avg Time WTT--Avg Time for Water Particle to for Water Particle to Transit ReservoirTransit Reservoir

Q -- discharge at Q -- discharge at damdam

Converting Flows to Water Transit Time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Avg Flow LGS, LMN, IHR (kcfs)

Wat

er T

ran

sit

Tim

e (d

ays)

Hatchery Subyearling Chinook Survival vs sum WTT LGS, LMN, IHR, McN

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Avg WTT (d) LGR to MCN

Su

rviv

al

LG

R t

o M

CN

Weighted Regression AH 2007

y=0.83019 - -0.01665X

adj R2 = 0.73, p= 0.00000

Hatchery Subyearling Chinook Survival vs Avg Temp LGS, LMN, IHR, McN

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Avg Temp (degrees C) LGS, LMN, IHR, MCN

Su

rviv

al

LG

R t

o M

CN

Weighted Regression AH 2007

y=1.21923 -0.03805X

adj R2 = 0.46, p=0.00009

0.0

0.10.2

0.30.4

0.5

AVGSPILPROP

0

10

20

30

40

WTT

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8S

UR

VIV

AL

High Spill Proportion,fast WTT and High Survival

No Spill, slow WTTand Low Survival

Hatchery Subyearling Chinook Survival vs WTT and Spill Proportion

Conclusions

For actively migrating subyearling For actively migrating subyearling Chinook, increased spill and decreased Chinook, increased spill and decreased water transit time (higher flows) appear to water transit time (higher flows) appear to improve survival, while higher temperatures improve survival, while higher temperatures decrease survivaldecrease survival