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Forest Mortality, Economics, & Climate
Linnia Hawkins1, Philip Mote2, Beverly Law3, Andrew Plantinga4, Jeffrey Hicke5, Myles Allen6 & Richard Betts7
1Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Oregon State University, Oregon, USA
2Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon, USA
3College of Forestry, Oregon State University, Oregon, USA
4Natural Resource Economics and Policy, UC Santa Barbara, California, USA
5Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Idaho, USA
6School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
7Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Photo by Jeff Hicke
Climate Induced Forest Mortality
Phillip J. van Mantgem et al., 2009
Allen et al., 2010
OBJECTIVES
Identify regions vulnerable to climate-induced tree mortality.
Quantify the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystem services.
Investigate feedbacks among climate, forest response, and economic factors.
Identify policy and management strategies that preserve forest function.
Approach
Quantity
Price
Demand
Supply
Timber market
Climate
Dynamic Vegetation
Economics
Bark Beetle Attack
CLM 4.5 Drought & Fire
Climate RCP8.5 2040-2069 minus 1970-1999 M
iroc5
IP
SL
_C
M5
A_
MR
Minimum Temperature Maximum Temperature Precipitation
Bark Beetle Model
1998 2002 2006
05
00
15
00
25
00
Cascades
Are
a w
ith m
ort
alit
y (
km
2)
1998 2002 2006
02
00
40
06
00
80
0Sierra Nevada
Are
a w
ith m
ort
alit
y (
km
2)
1998 2002 2006
02
00
40
06
00
80
0
Columbia Plateau
Are
a w
ith m
ort
alit
y (
km
2)
1998 2002 2006
05
000
15
00
02
50
00
Northern Rockies
Are
a w
ith
mo
rtalit
y (
km
2)
Observed
Predicted Single Region
95% CI
Combined Regions
1998 2002 2006
01
00
03
00
05
00
0
GYE
Are
a w
ith
mo
rtalit
y (
km
2)
1998 2002 2006
20
00
40
00
60
00
80
00
Southern Rockies
Are
a w
ith
mo
rtalit
y (
km
2)
-20 -15 -10 -5 0
-3-2
-10
12
3
Cascades
Winter T min (C)
log
-odds o
f tr
ee m
ort
alit
y
-20 -15 -10 -5 0
-3-2
-10
12
3
Sierra Nevada
Winter T min (C)lo
g-o
dds o
f tr
ee m
ort
alit
y
-20 -15 -10 -5 0
-3-2
-10
12
3
Columbia
Winter T min (C)
log
-odds o
f tr
ee m
ort
alit
y
-20 -15 -10 -5 0
-3-2
-10
12
3
Northern Rockies
Winter T min (C)
log
-odds o
f tr
ee m
ort
alit
y
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
-3-2
-10
12
3
GYE
Cold tolerance
log
-odds o
f tr
ee m
ort
alit
y
-20 -15 -10 -5 0-3
-2-1
01
23
S Rockies
Winter T min (C)
log
-odds o
f tr
ee m
ort
alit
y
1998 2002 2006
05
00
15
00
25
00
Cascades
Are
a w
ith m
ort
alit
y (
km
2)
1998 2002 2006
02
00
40
06
00
80
0
Sierra Nevada
Are
a w
ith m
ort
alit
y (
km
2)
1998 2002 2006
02
00
40
06
00
80
0
Columbia Plateau
Are
a w
ith m
ort
alit
y (
km
2)
1998 2002 2006
05
000
15
00
02
50
00
Northern Rockies
Are
a w
ith
mo
rtalit
y (
km
2)
Observed
Predicted Single Region
95% CI
Combined Regions
1998 2002 2006
01
00
03
00
05
00
0
GYE
Are
a w
ith
mo
rtalit
y (
km
2)
1998 2002 2006
20
00
40
00
60
00
80
00
Southern Rockies
Are
a w
ith
mo
rtalit
y (
km
2)
Land Surface Model CLM4.5
1. LANDFIRE: LANDFIRE 1.1.0, 30-m Mean Fire Return Interval layer. U.S. Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. [Online].
2. Threshold data, Vickers, D. et al. Tellus B, 2012; ASWC data from Mathys A. et al., Forest Ecology and Management, 2014.
Forest Cover Fire Vulnerability Drought Vulnerability
Forested area with more than 90% coverage Areas of Mean Fire Return Interval less than 40 years Areas of Available Soil Water Content < 122mm/year
Economic Model
Biomass
Growth Rate
Price point
Harvest
Dynamic Vegetation Model
Slide courtesy of Doug McNeall, Met Office, Exeter, UK
Needle-Leaf Forest Fraction
Initial NL fraction
2nd equilibrium Change in NL fraction
1st equilibrium
Outcomes
Determine how climate induced changes in
forest ecosystems will affect critical ecosystem
services.
Identify high priority regions most vulnerable to
morality by fire, drought, temperature and
beetle attack.
Explore the the ecological and economic effects
of policy scenarios.
Demand
Supply
Climate
Vegetation
Economics
Bark Beetle
CLM 4.5 Drought & Fire
Extra Slides
Photo by Jeff Hicke
Bark Beetle Attack
photo bigsky.org
Recent outbreak:
Warmer winters
Summer drought
Climate drivers:
Winter minimum temperature
Fall temperature
Precipitation
Economic model structure
Quantity
Price
Demand
Supply
Quantity
Price
Demand
Supply
Lumber market Pulp market
Price in lumber market
determines demand by
lumber mills for timber
Quantity
Price
Demand
Supply
Timber market
Price in pulp market
determines demand by
pulp mills for timber
Prices in timber market
determine supply by
lumber and pulp mills
Chip sales
Private forest owners supply timber to the mill offering highest price
2020-2049 2070-2099
Difference
Annual carbon loss due to fire
Business as usual, Miroc5
Weather @ home
Super-ensemble
Uncertainty