An Emission Inventory for Natural Gas Development in the Haynesville Shale
and Evaluation of Ozone Impacts
19th International Emission Inventory Conference
September 28, 2010
Susan Kemball-Cook, Amnon Bar-Ilan, John Grant, Lynsey Parker, Jaegun Jung, Wilson Santamaria, and Greg Yarwood
ENVIRON
TemplateTemplate
The Haynesville Shale
• 10,000-13,000 feet 0,000 3,000below surface
• 300’ thick layer of 300 thick layer of sedimentary rock
• M b f l t • May be one of largest natural gas reserves in th U Sthe U.S.
• First highly productive
Figure from the Wall Street Journal, July, 2008
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wells drilled in 2008
Ozone Air Quality Implications
• Haynesville Shale Counties with Ozone Monitors Violating
Potential Primary Ozone Standard
development economically important
• R l f • Release of ozone precursor emissions within/upwind of potential ozone non-
HaynesvilleShale p
attainment areas• Lower 2010 ozone standard
h i f 70 ppb
65 b enhances importance of understanding impacts of Haynesville Shale on
Figure: U.S. EPA, http://www.epa.gov/air/ozonepollution/pdfs/20100104maps.pdf
65 ppb
60 ppb
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ay esv e S a e o regional ozone
Emissions from Exploration
Figure from geology.com
Figure from http://www.axpc.us/field/index.html
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• Drilling, completion, fracing
Horizontal Drilling and Hydraulic Fracturing
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Figure from energyindustryphotos.com
Emissions from Production
li d i i
• Well site equipment• Compression at wellhead and central stations
www.linde-engineering.com
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• Compression at wellhead and central stations• Gas processing plants
Study of Haynesville Development
• Estimate future development to 2020• Calculate associated emissions of ozone precursors• Model ozone impacts in 2012p• Study performed in 2009-new information now
available available
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Projecting Future Development and Emissions
• Future year activity based onN b f ll d ill d h – Number of new wells drilled each year
– Well productivity• All l l i f f i id• Allows calculation of formation-wide
– Well countG d i– Gas production
• Once well count and gas production are forecast, d l i i i t f l ti can develop an emission inventory for exploration
and production activity for the entire Haynesville Shale
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Shale
Projecting Future Activity
Approximate AnnualBarnett Shale Rig Count
120
140
160
180
200
40
60
80
100
120
Drill Rig CountAverage 2001-2008
0
20
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
• Use historical growth from Barnett Shale to estimate future growth in the Haynesville Shale
• Forecasts of future Haynesville production (8-35 TCF) using this y p ( ) gmethod fall within range of estimates of total recoverable reserves
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Drill Rig Projections: 3 Scenarios
Average Annual Drill Rig Count
250
150
200
250
lSept. 2010
50
100
150 lowmediumhigh
March 2009
Sept 0 0~145 Rigs
0
50
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
95 Rigs
• Low scenario: leave March 2009 drill rig count fixed• High scenario: use 2001-2008 Barnett Shale rig count growth, cap
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growth at 200 rigs• Moderate: 50% of high scenario
Well Number Projections
Cumulative Number of Active Wells
8000
10000
12000
l
4000
6000lowmediumhigh
0
2000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
904 producingwells as
of Sept. 2010
877428
• Texas: 296 active Haynesville wells, 458 permitted (TRRC)• Louisiana: 608 producing wells, 124 being drilled, 499 other
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Louisiana: 608 producing wells, 124 being drilled, 499 other (completion/frac/testing), 311 permitted not yet drilling, 1542 total Haynesville wells (LDNR)
Formation-Wide Emissions: Moderate Scenario
NOx Emissions VOC Emissions
• Gas processing plants, compressor stations, drill rigs Gas p ocess g p a s, co p esso s a o s, d gsare important sources of NOx and VOCs
• Drill rig emissions fall off after 2017 due to controls
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• Haynesville development likely to continue past 2020
Projected Haynesville Shale NOx Emissions
ForecastNO E i i (T /D )
20202012Scenario 20202012Scenario
NOx Emissions (Tons/Day)
12782Medium
6461Low
12782Medium
6461Low
267140High 267140High
• Perspective: 50 tons/day roughly equivalent to NOx
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emissions from a large, coal-fired power plant
CAMx Ozone Model
• May-June 2005 high ozone episode, MPE
• Future year scenarios:– FY 2012 base case
with no Haynesville i i emissions
– FY 2012+Haynesville high, medium and low emissions scenariosemissions scenarios
• HS Impacts (High) = Haynesville High –2012 Base Case2012 Base Case
• Focus on 8-hour ozone impacts– Show high scenario
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Show high scenario only
Average Regional 8-Hour Ozone Impacts in 2012
• Average impacts > 1 ppb restricted to Northeast Texas,
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Average impacts > 1 ppb restricted to Northeast Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas and Oklahoma
Maximum Regional 8-Hour Ozone Impacts in 2012
• M i i t t d t id N th t T i t th i
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• Maximum impacts extend outside Northeast Texas into other regions of Texas
Ozone Design Value Impacts in 2012
TXAK
Caddo
Bossier
Harrison
Gregg
Smith
LA
• Design values increase 4-5 ppb at Louisiana monitors
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Design values increase 4-5 ppb at Louisiana monitors• 4 ppb increase at Harrison, TX monitor• Smaller increases (1-2 ppb) at Gregg and Smith monitors in TX
Summary
• Haynesville Shale development is a concern for future regional air qualityfuture regional air quality
• Early estimates presented here are uncertainMay underestimate NOx because assumed little well– May underestimate NOx because assumed little well-head compression
– May over- or underestimate emissions for other reasonsM y• Additional study is planned and will benefit from
more data regarding well site compression, well g g p ,decline curves, etc.– Input from energy companies would be very useful in
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constraining the emissions projections
Acknowledgement
• This work was performed on behalf of Northeast A C h f hTexas Air Care, with support from the Texas
Commission on Environmental Quality
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