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Haynesville Shale Production

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Copyright © 2011 BENTEK Energy, LLC www.bentekenergy.com 1-888-251-1264 1 Production Monitor Southeast / Gulf Highlights and Key Points Haynesville Surpasses Ft. Worth Basin (Barnett Shale) (Pg. 7) Chesapeake Haynesville Rig Count Could Drop by Half by Year-end (Pg. 9) Fayetteville Shale Remains a Three-Company Play: BHP to Buy CHK’s Assets (Pg. 11) BPI on Steady Climb Up on Southwestern Efficiency Gains (Pg. 12) Newfield Moves West in the Woodford to Oil (Pg. 15) Ft. Worth Basin Recovers from Cold Temps One Month Later (Pg. 19) GMX Resources Extends East Texas Lateral Lengths to 6,000 feet (Pg. 23) New Schlumberger Technology Could Drop Petrohawk’s Eagle Ford Breakeven Price by 50 Cents (Pg. 27) Eagle Ford May Have a Backlog of 500 Drilled Wells Awaiting Sales (Pg. 28) Slow Offshore Well Permitting Elicits Criticism, Asset Sales, Earnings Hits (Pg. 35) Oil Likely the Emphasis in the Gulf for Foreseeable Future (Pg. 36) Questions? Contact Matt at [email protected] In the Spotlight National Rig Count BPI 2,136 3,087 Southeast Gulf 808 1,190 Inside This Issue ArkLa Haynesville………………..........7 Arkoma Fayetteville……………..... ...11 Arkoma Woodford……………...........15 Fort Worth -Barnett ……………...........19 East Texas………………………...........23 Texas Gulf Coast Onshore………........27 LA Gulf Coast Onshore ………….....31 ArkLa Non-Haynesville………........33 Offshore ……………………………....35 Black Warrior ……………………….......39 AL-MS-FL………………………………..41 March 2011 Major BENTEK Data Upgrades Enhance Production Samples, Models BENTEK production analysis now have dramatically enhanced detail in key areas, including Texas and Oklahoma. Beginning in October, intrastate pipelines became subject to regulations that had previously only affected long-haul, interstate pipelines. These intrastate pipes, with a few exceptions, are now required to post daily nominations data. BENTEK has incorporated the data into its Data Warehouse and has recently begun to publish analysis of the data. The Production Monitor series now reports new, more exhaustive samples of production in basins where intrastate pipelines are prevalent. The aggregation of these new data are, to BENTEK’s knowledge, available nowhere else in the industry. The additional daily information has enhanced BENTEK’s production models and serves as an important tool for corroborating production estimates and quantifying daily movements in the supply pictureat the basin, regional, and continental level. FERC, in its creation of the new regulation Order 720, cited a desire for market transparency in its decision to require the disclosure from intrastate pipelines. This effect has been realized, especially in Texas. For example, BENTEK’s sample of production on interstate pipelines in the Ft. Worth Basin totaled about 1% of total production. With the addition of intrastate pipelines, the sample size is 91% (see Pg. 19). The total BENTEK sample now measures almost all of Texas production. This improvement in Ft. Worth allowed BENTEK to precisely estimate the drop in production when cold weather struck the region in early February. BENTEK subscribers were perhaps the only market participants with this insight. Throughout this and future issues of this report, intrastate pipeline data will be displayed, as well as used to create more accurate estimates of current and future production. In the future, as more history is collected, even more robust models will be created. (continued, Pg. 3) BENTEK Intrastate Pipeline Data Is Now Incorporated in Basin Forecasts 0 5 10 15 20 Old and New BENTEK Texas Production Sample Before Order 720 After Order 720 PARTIAL REPORT / SAMPLE – CONTACT BENTEK TO SUBSCRIBE
Transcript
Page 1: Haynesville Shale Production

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Copyright © 2011 BENTEK Energy, LLC www.bentekenergy.com 1-888-251-1264 1

Production Monitor Southeast / Gulf

Highlights and Key Points

Haynesville Surpasses Ft. Worth Basin (Barnett Shale) (Pg. 7)

Chesapeake Haynesville Rig Count Could Drop by Half by Year-end (Pg. 9)

Fayetteville Shale Remains a Three-Company Play: BHP to Buy CHK’s Assets (Pg. 11)

BPI on Steady Climb Up on Southwestern Efficiency Gains (Pg. 12)

Newfield Moves West in the Woodford to Oil (Pg. 15)

Ft. Worth Basin Recovers from Cold Temps One Month Later (Pg. 19)

GMX Resources Extends East Texas Lateral Lengths to 6,000 feet (Pg. 23)

New Schlumberger Technology Could Drop Petrohawk’s Eagle Ford Breakeven Price

by 50 Cents (Pg. 27)

Eagle Ford May Have a Backlog of 500 Drilled Wells Awaiting Sales (Pg. 28)

Slow Offshore Well Permitting Elicits Criticism, Asset Sales, Earnings Hits (Pg. 35)

Oil Likely the Emphasis in the Gulf for Foreseeable Future (Pg. 36)

Questions? Contact Matt at [email protected]

In the SpotlightNational

Rig Count BPI

2,136 3,087

Southeast Gulf

808 1,190

Inside This Issue

ArkLa – Haynesville………………..........7

Arkoma – Fayetteville……………..... ...11

Arkoma – Woodford……………...........15

Fort Worth -Barnett ……………...........19

East Texas………………………...........23

Texas Gulf Coast Onshore………........27

LA Gulf Coast Onshore ………….…....31

ArkLa – Non-Haynesville………..…......33

Offshore …………………………….…...35

Black Warrior ……………………….......39

AL-MS-FL………………………………..41

March 2011

Major BENTEK Data Upgrades Enhance Production Samples, Models

BENTEK production analysis now have dramatically enhanced detail in key areas, including Texas and Oklahoma.

Beginning in October, intrastate pipelines became subject to regulations that had previously only affected long-haul, interstate

pipelines. These intrastate pipes, with a few exceptions, are now required to post daily nominations data. BENTEK has

incorporated the data into its Data Warehouse and has recently begun to publish analysis of the data. The Production Monitor

series now reports new, more exhaustive samples of production in basins where intrastate pipelines are prevalent.

The aggregation of these new data are, to BENTEK’s knowledge, available nowhere else in the industry. The additional daily

information has enhanced BENTEK’s production models and serves as an important tool for corroborating production estimates

and quantifying daily movements in the supply picture—at the basin, regional, and continental level.

FERC, in its creation of the new regulation Order 720, cited a desire for market transparency in its decision to require the

disclosure from intrastate pipelines. This effect has been realized, especially in Texas. For example, BENTEK’s sample of

production on interstate pipelines in the Ft. Worth Basin totaled about 1% of total production. With the addition of intrastate

pipelines, the sample size is 91% (see Pg. 19). The total BENTEK sample now measures almost all of Texas production. This

improvement in Ft. Worth allowed BENTEK to precisely estimate the drop in production when cold weather struck the region in

early February. BENTEK subscribers were perhaps the only market participants with this insight.

Throughout this and future issues of this report, intrastate pipeline data will be displayed, as well as used to create more accurate

estimates of current and future production. In the future, as more history is collected, even more robust models will be created.

(continued, Pg. 3)

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Haynesville Rig Releases (wells drilled)

BENTEK Intrastate Pipeline

Data Is Now Incorporated in

Basin Forecasts

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Old and New BENTEK Texas Production Sample

Before Order 720 After Order 720

PARTIAL REPORT / SAMPLE – CONTACT BENTEK TO SUBSCRIBE

Page 2: Haynesville Shale Production

Copyright © 2011 BENTEK Energy, LLC www.bentekenergy.com 1-888-251-1264 2

Production Monitor

Southeast / Gulf

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BENTEK Productivity Index: U.S. Total

Actual Rig Count BPI Effective Rig Count

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BENTEK Productivity Index: Southeast/Gulf

Actual Rig Count BPI Effective Rig Count

.

BENTEK PRODUCTIVITY INDEX (BPI)TM: The effective rig count shown on the charts below illustrates the

rig level that is equivalent to the 1Q2005 actual rig count level. This week, the Southeast/Gulf is effectively

operating the equivalent of 1,190 rigs compared to the actual rig count of 808. This explains why production

has not fallen sharply, even though the active rig count is still much below its peak reached in 2008.

March 2011

Barnett Combo

Eagle Ford (wet gas)

Anadarko-Woodford

Haynesville FayettevilleArkoma -

WoodfordBarnett

Eagle Ford (dry gas)

Breakeven $1.84 $2.78 $3.58 $3.66 $3.84 $4.03 $4.01 $4.49

12 Mo. Avg Cash Price $4.24 $4.36 $4.24 $4.24 $4.24 $4.24 $4.24 $4.36

12 Mo. FWD Curve $4.39 $4.39 $4.39 $4.39 $4.39 $4.39 $4.39 $4.39

$1.84

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Breakeven Gas Price For New Drilling Economics

Breakevens for liquids-rich plays assume $80 oil and 3:1 NGL value ratio.

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Southeast/Gulf Dry Production

Other ARKLA East Texas Gulf Coast Offshore Arkoma Ft. Worth

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Southeast/Gulf Production Flow Sample

Other ARKLA East Texas Gulf Coast Offshore Arkoma

PARTIAL REPORT / SAMPLE – CONTACT BENTEK TO SUBSCRIBE

Page 3: Haynesville Shale Production

Copyright © 2011 BENTEK Energy, LLC www.bentekenergy.com 1-888-251-1264 3

Production Monitor

Southeast / Gulf

Reporting Area 11/01/10 12/01/10 01/01/11 02/01/11 03/01/11 04/01/11 05/01/11 06/01/11 07/01/11 08/01/11 09/01/11

AL-MS-FL 270 271 267 264 262 259 257 255 253 251 250

ARKLA - Haynesville 4,787 4,835 4,971 5,307 5,145 5,101 5,158 5,214 5,270 5,323 5,376

ARKLA - Non-Haynesville 343 423 439 428 417 407 398 390 382 375 368

Arkoma - Fayetteville 2,655 2,656 2,683 2,711 2,735 2,760 2,784 2,807 2,829 2,852 2,873

Arkoma - Woodford 1,465 1,475 1,474 1,474 1,473 1,471 1,471 1,471 1,472 1,473 1,474

Black Warrior 304 302 300 299 298 297 297 296 295 295 294

East Texas 4,478 4,498 4,519 4,627 4,643 4,657 4,670 4,681 4,692 4,702 4,711

Ft. Worth 5,514 5,598 5,644 5,760 5,808 5,855 5,901 5,944 5,988 6,032 6,078

Louisiana Gulf Coast 851 851 850 849 848 847 846 845 845 844 843

Offshore 5,973 6,000 5,959 6,010 5,981 5,953 5,926 5,900 5,875 5,851 5,828

Total 26,640 26,910 27,107 27,729 27,610 27,608 27,706 27,802 27,900 27,996 28,094

Production by Area (Dry - MMcf/d)

BENTEK Data Upgraded with Intrastate Flows (continued from Pg. 1)

Some of the new models have already yielded insights not previously possible. Consider again the freeze-offs

example above. Before the intrastate data was developed, BENTEK was confined to using a complex, multiple-

regression model for estimating daily production in Texas. Regression models are limited in that they are unable to

properly measure extreme events or those that have not before occurred. With BENTEK’s Order 720 sample, ―peak‖

events become obvious.

In the figure above, the dip in production is much more pronounced in the ―after‖ sample than in the ―before‖ sample.

Further, the ―after‖ sample was also able to convey a continued depression in production that the sample-plus-

regression (―Old TX‖) model missed.

There are a few idiosyncrasies regarding this new data that must be understood. First, the intrastate pipelines as a

group often do not post optional data to the same extent as the larger pipelines. Some interstate pipelines post

generous descriptions of meters as well as the operators. Certain intrastate pipelines have been more reticent. The

lack of information requires BENTEK to conduct deep research to explain the meaning of nominations.

Second, in some basins, BENTEK’s sample is now larger than actual production coming out of the basin. This can

occur for several reasons, but the most relevant is how BENTEK determines the geographical boundaries of plays.

Systems dedicated to gathering gas are categorically exempted from the Order 720 rules. One of these gathering

systems may collect gas in one county, but deliver it to a reporting pipeline in an adjacent county that is in a separate

production area (by BENTEK definitions). In these cases, the daily changes in the sample are still very useful in

determining the basin’s contribution to supply changes.

Beyond the content of the Production Monitors, BENTEK is developing new methods of estimating supply as well as

demand for total U.S. In the next several months, these new tools will premiere to clients in existing and new reports.

Federal GOM

Texas

Alaska

California

North Dakota

Louisiana

Oklahoma

New Mexico

Wyomoing

Kansas

Montana

Colorado

Utah

Mississippi

Illinois

Other

Alabama

Michigan

Arkansas

Ohio

Pennsylvania

Kentucky

Nebraska

West Virginia

Indiana

South Dakota

Florida

New york

Tennessee

Nevada

March 2011

0

5

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20

Models Improve Using New Texas Sample

Before Order 720 After Order 720 Old TX Model

Previous Model

Miss

PARTIAL REPORT / SAMPLE – CONTACT BENTEK TO SUBSCRIBE

Page 4: Haynesville Shale Production

Copyright © 2011 BENTEK Energy, LLC www.bentekenergy.com 1-888-251-1264 4

Rig Activity HighlightsXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Production Monitor

Southeast / Gulf

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Drilling Orientation of Active Rigs

Total Directional Horizontal Vertical

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Active Rigs by Well Class

Total CBM Gas Oil Oil & Gas

Basin NamePeak Rig

Count, week

of 10/24/08

Rig Count

as of

02/04/11

Rig Count as

of 02/11/11

Rig Count as

of 02/18/11

Current Rig

Count as of

02/25/11

Four Week

Avg

Four Week

LastYr

Four Week

Avg Chg YTD Avg

YTD Avg

Last Yr

YTD Avg

Chg

Texas Gulf Coast 259 233 239 245 238 239 170 69 207 133 74

Ft. Worth 240 114 115 118 120 117 116 1 128 119 9

ARKLA - Haynesville 93 118 117 118 117 118 131 -13 130 99 31

Offshore 148 111 111 109 113 111 121 -10 116 107 9

East Texas 229 98 98 95 97 97 118 -21 111 110 1

Arkoma - Fayetteville 65 43 39 40 38 40 40 0 40 44 -4

Arkoma - Woodford 71 27 26 26 28 27 37 -10 33 35 -1

Louisiana Gulf Coast 36 27 28 28 27 28 23 5 24 20 4

AL-MS-FL 26 15 16 15 14 15 13 2 17 13 4

ARKLA - Non-Haynesville 22 15 12 11 11 12 7 5 10 7 3

Black Warrior 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 3 3 0

Total 1,193 801 801 805 803 803 778 25 818 688 130

Southeast/Gulf Drilling Activity

CBM Gas Oil/Gas Oil Total

1 Chesapeake 0 39 35 2 76

2 Exxon Mobil 0 42 20 0 62

3 EOG Resources 0 7 24 13 44

4 Petrohawk 0 30 1 0 31

5 Devon Energy 0 18 4 0 22

6 Encana 0 21 1 0 22

7 Shell 0 8 12 1 21

8 Exco Resources 0 21 0 0 21

9 Southwestern Energy 0 17 0 0 17

10 Anadarko 0 4 12 1 17

11 ConocoPhillips 0 0 15 1 16

12 Hilcorp Energy 0 5 6 2 13

13 B P Energy 0 2 10 0 12

14 Chevron 0 1 11 0 12

15 El Paso 0 6 3 2 11

Other Operators 0 123 218 65 406

Total 0 344 372 87 803

Top Operators - Well Class

Ranked on Total Active Rig Count Week: 02/25/11

Hor Dir Ver Total

1 Chesapeake 75 0 1 76

2 Exxon Mobil 44 6 12 62

3 EOG Resources 36 1 7 44

4 Petrohawk 31 0 0 31

5 Devon Energy 19 1 2 22

6 Encana 18 4 0 22

7 Shell 9 8 4 21

8 Exco Resources 20 0 1 21

9 Southwestern Energy 17 0 0 17

10 Anadarko 14 2 1 17

11 ConocoPhillips 14 2 0 16

12 Hilcorp Energy 7 3 3 13

13 B P Energy 7 2 3 12

14 Chevron 1 6 5 12

15 El Paso 8 1 2 11

Other Operators 159 80 167 406

Total 479 116 208 803

Top Operators - Orientation

Ranked on Total Active Rig Count Week: 02/25/11

March 2011

PARTIAL REPORT / SAMPLE – CONTACT BENTEK TO SUBSCRIBE

Page 5: Haynesville Shale Production

Copyright © 2011 BENTEK Energy, LLC www.bentekenergy.com 1-888-251-1264 5

Production Monitor

Southeast / Gulf

Southeast/Gulf Regional Map

March 2011

PARTIAL REPORT / SAMPLE – CONTACT BENTEK TO SUBSCRIBE

Page 6: Haynesville Shale Production

Copyright © 2011 BENTEK Energy, LLC www.bentekenergy.com 1-888-251-1264 6

Production Monitor

Southeast / Gulf

DISCLAIMER. THIS REPORT IS FURNISHED ON AN ―AS IS‖ BASIS. BENTEK DOES NOT WARRANT THE ACCURACY OR CORRECTNESS

OF THE REPORT OR THE INFORMATION CONTAINED THEREIN. BENTEK MAKES NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE

USE OF ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT IN CONNECTION WITH TRADING OF COMMODITIES, EQUITIES, FUTURES,

OPTIONS OR ANY OTHER USE. BENTEK MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL

WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.

RELEASE AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITY: IN NO EVENT SHALL BENTEK BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL,

OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFIT) ARISING OUT OF OR RELATED TO THE ACCURACY OR CORRECTNESS OF

THIS REPORT OR THE INFORMATION CONTAINED THEREIN, WHETHER BASED ON WARRANTY, CONTRACT, TORT OR ANY OTHER

LEGAL THEORY.

ICE PRICE DATA: ICE Index Data used herein is provided under BENTEK’s AGREEMENT FOR THE PROVISION OF INDEX DATA with ICE.

Recipients of this report acknowledge that the ICE Index Data and reports thereon are confidential and are proprietary trade secrets and data of

either Distributor or its licensors/suppliers. Recipients shall use best efforts to prevent the unauthorized publication, disclosure or copying of the

ICE Index Data. Recipient may use ICE Index Data solely for valid purposes related to its own internal business activities and for no other purpose.

NO WARRANTIES, LIABILITIES, OR OBLIGATIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH ICE INDEX DATA, INCLUDING WITHOUT PREJUDICE TO THE

GENERALITY OF THE FOREGOING, THE IMPLIED CONDITIONS OR WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A

PARTICULAR PURPOSE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT.

Forward basis and price data provided by NYMEX ClearPort.

Methodological Notes

The data in this report are derived from BENTEK Energy’s proprietary Energy Data Warehouse. BENTEK collects and monitors pipeline

nominations as posted on individual pipeline electronic bulletin boards (EBBs). BENTEK has assigned geographic and usage descriptions, such as

state, province, county, production region, customer type and connected party to more than 26,000 pipeline points. The descriptions assigned to

these pipeline data points enable users to monitor and forecast U.S. production, U.S. imports, U.S. LNG sendout, demand from multiple sectors

and storage injection and withdrawal activity.

BENTEK PRODUCTIVITY INDEX (BPI)TM: In order to quantify the effects of improved drilling and completion technologies along with the transfer

of rigs to unconventional plays with higher productivity, BENTEK has developed the BENTEK Productivity Index (BPI)TM. By benchmarking the

productivity of each operating rig in the 1Q2005, BENTEK quantified the effects of both technology and gas-resource-play development.

BENTEK defines an active rig to be a rig that has commenced drilling a well (spud) until the point at which the rig has been released from the well

in order to allow completion activities.

The BPI is determined by a combination of rig proficiency and well productivity. BENTEK begins with data provided by RigData on how many rigs

are actively drilling in a basin or region and the average number of days it takes for those rigs to drill wells. The average number of days is divided

into 365 days per year to find an average number of wells drilled per year per rig. The wells-per-rig-per-year number is multiplied by the 30-day

initial production rate for the basin or region to determine the average productivity rate for the current time period. That number is then divided by

the baseline productivity rate from 2005 to get a ratio. BENTEK then multiplies the ratio by the current rig count to estimate the BPI.

Numbers from individual basins and regions are averaged to determine a national average.

BREAKEVEN PRICES: BENTEK defines breakeven gas prices as the well-head gas price at which the before-tax, cash internal rate of return

(IRR) on the project is 10% (the net present value is zero at a 10% discount rate). BENTEK collects announced production data for the key

operators in selected natural-gas plays/basins. Data sources include investor presentations, press releases, reported financials and industry

publications. Breakeven prices are determined using a representative set of assumptions for each play.

BENTEK’s breakeven prices are based on half-cycle well economics. The half-cycle breakeven price is the gas price required to earn the required

rate of return excluding previously sunk capital, such as exploration and acreage costs. The components of the breakeven analysis are Drilling and

Completion (D&C) costs, Initial Production (IP) rates, Operating costs, Production Taxes, Annual Production Declines and Royalty rates. D&C

Costs are the costs to drill, case and prepare a well for gas production. The IP rate is the amount of gas initially produced from a well. The

Operating costs include lease operating expense, and gathering and transportation costs. The Production Tax, also referred to as Severance Tax,

is the tax levied by state governments on gas production. The Annual Production Decline is the natural decline in gas production from a well. The

Royalty rate is the fraction of revenue from gas production paid to the leaseholder.

BENTEK's PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS are based on state wellhead production data provided by HPDI, LLC. Each projection starts from the

last completed dataset and then projects production into the future using type-curves for each basin based on drilling orientation and resource

target.

BENTEK does not assume a base decline rate in its production projections. Production is forecasted on a well-by-well basis based on the current

producing age of each well and where production from that well is on its current decline curve. Well counts are assumed to be flat from the previous

month's drilling level, except where noted due to basins with an inventory of wells that are awaiting pipeline expansions and/or completions

Drilling Data provided in this report provided by DataWright RigData, for more information, go to www.rigdata.com

March 2011

PARTIAL REPORT / SAMPLE – CONTACT BENTEK TO SUBSCRIBE

Page 7: Haynesville Shale Production

Haynesville Surpasses Ft. Worth Basin (Barnett Shale)

The first large shale play, the Barnett Shale, has for years

also been the largest producer. That changed last month.

After the effects of production freeze-offs lingered in the Ft.

Worth Basin, output from the Haynesville Shale play in

Louisiana grew. On Feb. 12, BENTEK’s sample of

production (which now includes both intrastate and

interstate pipelines), reached 5.32 Bcf/d. On that same day,

Ft. Worth production, correcting for sample size, was only

5.23 Bcf/d. In the 11 days to follow, Haynesville kept its

lead. The Haynesville area now has the largest production

of any shale-dominated area in the world.

It is remarkable how fast Haynesville has grown compared

to the Barnett. The latter was a proving ground for shale

development, and it took about nine years (cont’d, Pg. 9)

• Haynesville Surpasses Ft. Worth Basin (Barnett Shale) (Pg. 7)

• Haynesville Productivity Set to Increase Throughout 2011 (Pg. 8)

• Chesapeake Haynesville Rig Count Could Drop by Half by Year-end (Pg.

9)

Rig CountProduction

Monitor

Southeast / Gulf

Copyright © 2011 BENTEK Energy, LLC www.bentekenergy.com 1-888-251-1264 7

In the Spotlight

Rig Count BPI

ArkLa – Haynesville March 2011

632 117

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Regency Deliveries to Interstate Pipelines

ANR Arcadia Columbia Gulf Gulf States SONAT Tennessee Texas Gas

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Centerpoint ETC Tiger Pipeline Gulf South Other

Tennessee Texas Gas Regency

Units (MMcf/day) 11/01/10 12/01/10 01/01/11 02/01/11 03/01/11 04/01/11 05/01/11 06/01/11 07/01/11 08/01/11 09/01/11

Current Projection 4,787 4,835 4,971 5,307 5,145 5,101 5,158 5,214 5,270 5,323 5,376

Interstate Sample 3,155 3,354 3,417 3,588 3,701 - - - - - -

Intrastate Sample 1,827 1,744 1,723 1,713 1,751 - - - - - -

Total Sample 4,982 5,098 5,140 5,301 5,452 - - - - - -

Last Month 4,838 4,970 5,034 5,097 5,157 5,216 5,271 5,325 5,380 5,430 5,480

Average Monthly Projections and Flow Sample (MMcf/d)

* BENTEK Flow Sample 102% of Actual

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Production Projection

Interstate Sample Intrastate Sample

Current Projected Flows Last Month Projected Flows

Capacity

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Haynesville Beats Barnett

Arkla - Haynesville (LA) Ft. Worth

PARTIAL REPORT / SAMPLE – CONTACT BENTEK TO SUBSCRIBE

Page 8: Haynesville Shale Production

Haynesville Productivity Set to Increase Throughout 2011

The Haynesville Shale is poised to see significant gains in productivity in the next several months. BENTEK has

already noted that the number of rigs has been declining (see chart above, left), yet more wells than ever are

being drilled. The “horizontal” section of the below tables shows why. From 3Q2010 to 4Q2010, the average time

to drill a well shrunk from 44 days to 38 days. The number of wells increased, from 211 to 233. Multiplying these

two variables, we can see that rig-days fell 4.6% quarter-on-quarter, yet 10.4% more wells were drilled. Wells are

being drilled faster, but the initial-production rates have not yet shown improvement. This will likely change as

operators end lease-capture activities and settle in to the highest-IP areas (see Pg. 10). Next month’s report will

include results from 4Q2010, but the IP increase likely is only just beginning to happen and will gradually increase

into the beginning of next year.

Production

Monitor

Southeast / Gulf

2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4

Average Time to Drill 64 60 51 49 48 47 46 48 44 38

Time to Drill Sample 32 61 70 116 152 195 219 222 211 233

30-Day Inital Production Rate (Mcf/d) 5,593 7,886 7,439 8,934 9,436 9,996 9,292 9,356 8,416 6,322

IP Sample 15 18 48 59 92 113 144 157 159 10

IP Additions Per Year 31,898 47,973 53,240 66,549 71,753 77,629 73,730 71,145 69,815 60,724

2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4

Average Time to Drill 49 54 43 52 46 33 40 33 22 55

Time to Drill Sample 19 20 26 9 6 6 7 5 1 4

30-Day Inital Production Rate (Mcf/d) 2,469 6,250 3,779 4,690 5,117 4,824 7,897 7,209 8,766 -

IP Sample 17 10 19 26 12 6 11 7 2 -

IP Additions Per Year 18,392 42,245 32,078 32,920 40,602 53,356 72,060 79,736 145,436 -

2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4

Average Time to Drill 21 20 21 20 23 24 23 31 24 28

Time to Drill Sample 192 144 61 23 22 9 13 10 8 10

30-Day Inital Production Rate (Mcf/d) 836 886 704 1,243 810 1,124 3,121 1,977 888 1,082

IP Sample 172 153 108 37 13 22 12 11 13 2

IP Additions Per Year 14,530 16,170 12,236 22,685 12,854 17,094 49,529 23,278 13,505 14,105

Vertical Drilling

Horizontal Drilling

Directional Drilling

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Nu

mb

er

of

Rig

s

BENTEK Productivity Index

Actual Rig Count Effective Rig Count

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Bcf/

d

Production Receipts by Pipeline

Gulf South Centerpoint ETC Tiger Pipeline Other Tennessee Texas Gas

Copyright © 2011 BENTEK Energy, LLC www.bentekenergy.com 1-888-251-1264 8

ArkLa - Haynesville

This chart only

includes production

receipts on interstate

pipelines.

PARTIAL REPORT / SAMPLE – CONTACT BENTEK TO SUBSCRIBE

Page 9: Haynesville Shale Production

Haynesville vs. Barnett (cont’d from Pg. 7)

to climb to 5.0 Bcf/d from the time shale

production began in earnest. For the

Haynesville, it took less than three years. The

rapid growth is evidence of learning occurring in

the industry, and the learning is still ongoing.

Operators are experimenting with new frac

designs, drilling methods, and reservoir

management. With increasing drilling

efficiencies, other, newer plays are set up for

robust growth. The Eagle Ford, Barnett Combo

(liquids-rich area), and Marcellus Shale are

those likely to benefit.

Chesapeake Haynesville Rig Count Could

Drop by Half by Year-end

Chesapeake said it will reduce the number of

rigs drilling in HBP (held by production) efforts

to only 18, compared to a current 23, by year-

end. The draw-down appears to include CHK’s

eight Fayetteville Shale rigs, which should be

moved (or contracted to BHP Billiton, depending

on the sale terms) as CHK winds down its

transition there. The remainder of rigs seem to

be in the Haynesville. If so, CHK’s rig count in

this play could fall from its current 32 down to

15 rigs before January 2012. The drop might

not be this severe if some HBP rigs in other dry-

gas plays are idled, but there are not many

candidates that fit this description.

CBM Gas Oil/Gas Oil Total

1 Chesapeake 0 29 3 0 32

2 Petrohawk 0 20 0 0 20

3 Encana 0 13 1 0 14

4 Exco Resources 0 14 0 0 14

5 Shell 0 8 0 1 9

6 El Paso 0 5 0 0 5

7 Questar 0 4 0 0 4

8 Comstock Resources 0 3 0 0 3

9 Beusa Energy 0 2 0 0 2

10 Exxon Mobil 0 2 0 0 2

11 J-W Operating Company 0 2 0 0 2

12 EOG Resources 0 2 0 0 2

13 W S 0 2 0 0 2

14 Samson 0 1 0 0 1

15 Nadel & Gussman - Jetta Operating 0 0 1 0 1

Other Operators 0 3 1 0 4

Total 0 110 6 1 117

Top Operators

Ranked on Total Active Rig Count Week: 02/25/11

Well Class

ArkLa - Haynesville

Production

Monitor

Southeast / Gulf

Peak Prior 4 Week Week Ending Week Ending Week Ending Week Ending

04/02/10 Average 02/04/11 02/11/11 02/18/11 02/25/11

Chesapeake 35 31 31 32 32 32

Petrohawk 17 16 18 20 20 20

Encana 23 16 16 15 15 14

Exco Resources 13 13 15 15 14 14

Shell 7 9 10 9 9 9

El Paso 9 5 5 5 5 5

Questar 6 5 5 4 4 4

Comstock Resources 8 4 3 3 3 3

Exxon Mobil 2 4 3 2 2 2

J-W Operating Company 2 1 2 2 2 2

Other Operators 25 11 10 10 12 12

TOTAL 147 115 118 117 118 117

-20%

Rig Count Summary

Operator

Active Rigs

Percent Change From Peak

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Bcf/

d

Production Receipts by Point Operator

M 2 Midstream Louisiana Midstream Gas Services

Centerpoint Energy Field Services Chesapeake

Other Petrohawk

Copyright © 2011 BENTEK Energy, LLC www.bentekenergy.com 1-888-251-1264 9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Active Rigs by Drilling Target

Total CBM Rigs Oil Rigs Oil and Gas Rigs Gas Rigs

This chart only

includes production

receipts on interstate

pipelines.

PARTIAL REPORT / SAMPLE – CONTACT BENTEK TO SUBSCRIBE

Page 10: Haynesville Shale Production

Haynesville grew at a staggering rate last year,

and this year’s well starts are outpacing those of

2010. About 7% fewer horizontal gas rigs are in

operation, but they have produced 17% more

wells (see table above).

Hor Dir Ver Total

1 Chesapeake 32 0 0 32

2 Petrohawk 20 0 0 20

3 Encana 14 0 0 14

4 Exco Resources 14 0 0 14

5 Shell 7 2 0 9

6 El Paso 4 0 1 5

7 Questar 4 0 0 4

8 Comstock Resources 3 0 0 3

9 Beusa Energy 2 0 0 2

10 Exxon Mobil 2 0 0 2

11 J-W Operating Company 2 0 0 2

12 EOG Resources 2 0 0 2

13 W S 1 1 0 2

14 Samson 1 0 0 1

15 Nadel & Gussman - Jetta Operating 0 0 1 1

Other Operators 2 0 2 4

Total 110 3 4 117

Top Operators

Ranked on Total Active Rig Count Week: 02/25/11

Well Orientation

ArkLa - Haynesville

Production

Monitor

Southeast / Gulf

Operator 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010

Chesapeake 34 39 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 40

Exco Resources 31 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 13

Petrohawk 30 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 19

Encana 27 23 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 24

Shell 12 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 9

Questar 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 7

El Paso 7 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 10

Comstock Resources 6 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 9

Beusa Energy 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1

Exxon Mobil 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1

Other Operators 9 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 1 0 0 0 11 27

Total 171 146 0 0 3 1 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 9 0 0 1 0 0 0 179 160

Change from 2009 17% n/a 200% n/a -75% n/a n/a n/a -78% n/a n/a n/a 12%

Oil Gas CBM

Total

Oil & Gas Oil

Year-to-Date New Well StartsHorizontal Directional Vertical

Gas CBM Oil & Gas Oil Gas CBM Oil & Gas

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Drilling Orientation of Active Rigs

Horizontal Rigs Directional Rigs Vertical Rigs

Copyright © 2011 BENTEK Energy, LLC www.bentekenergy.com 1-888-251-1264 10

March 2008:

Chesapeake announces

Haynesville discovery

PARTIAL REPORT / SAMPLE – CONTACT BENTEK TO SUBSCRIBE

Page 11: Haynesville Shale Production

The following basins were omitted from this SAMPLE edition of the Southeast / Gulf

Production Monitor:

Arkoma – Fayetteville Arkoma – Woodford Fort Worth – Barnett

East Texas Texas Gulf Coast Onshore

LA Gulf Coast Onshore ArkLa – Non‐Haynesville

Offshore Black Warrior

AL‐MS‐FL

To subscribe to the complete edition of this report, please contact your BENTEK account

representative, call BENTEK Sales at 303‐988‐1320 or email [email protected].

PARTIAL REPORT / SAMPLE – CONTACT BENTEK TO SUBSCRIBE


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