Hazard Analysis: Elements, Process, and Variation Robert M. Schwartz, Ph.D. Stacy L. Willett, M.A....

Hazard Analysis: Elements, Process, and Variation

Robert M. Schwartz, Ph.D.Stacy L. Willett, M.A.

Associate Professors- Emergency ManagementDepartment of Public Service Technology

The University of Akron

Discussion Topics

Definitions and ConceptsOverview of Processes

Hazards, Vulnerability and Risk Measurements

Hazard Analysis Variations General CARVER Method Iowa Example

Hazard Analysis Model

Mitigation

PreparednessRecovery

Response

Hazard AnalysisRisk Assessment

Hazards

Embraces a societal threatNaturalAnthropogenic Non-Intentional

(Technological)Anthropogenic Intentional

Profiling Hazards

MagnitudeDurationSeasonal patternSpeed of onsetAvailability of warnings

Vulnerability

Combination of risk and responseLack of ability to respond or lack of response

can increase vulnerabilityWell-thought out plans aiding all segments of

society can reduce vulnerability

Determine Vulnerability

Risk: predicted impact a hazard would have on people, services, and specific facilities in the community

Quantifying riskSurveying risk

Risk

Combination of:1. Probability that an event will occur2. Consequences of its occurrenceRisk= probability of occurrence x

vulnerabilityDHS Formula: terrorism

Risk=Asset Value x Threat Rating x Vulnerability Rating

Quantifying Risk

Identify elements of the community potentially at risk from a specific hazard

Develop response prioritiesAssign severity ratingsCompile risk data into community risk

profiles

Surveying Risk

Priority 1: Life SafetyPriority 2: Essential facilitiesPriority 3: Critical infrastructure

Prioritizing Risks

Assign each hazard a severity rating or risk index

Predicts expected damage from hazardQuantifies expected impact of hazard on

people, essential facilities, property, and response assets

Asset-Based and Geographically Based Risk Analysis

Asset Based: Threat: adversary’s intent to attack specific target and

capability to execute attack Vulnerability: vulnerability of specific asset to specific

type of attackConsequences: results from loss of particular type of asset

given specific type of attackGeographically Based:

Threat: linked to particular geographic areaVulnerability: intrinsic vulnerabilities of an area to attack

related to geography or other attributesConsequences: broad consequences to area’s population or

economy following an attack

Hazard Analysis

Identifies: Incidence of particular hazards Severity of hazards Probability of reoccurrence

Examines full range of hazards Natural Anthropogenic Non-Intentional (Technological) Anthropogenic Intentional (Civil/Political)

Additional Considerations in Hazard Assessment

Other conditions may increase the estimated severity of a hazard Population density Sheltering facilities Special populations Seasonal business Cultural differences (such as language barriers)

HA: Used to Lessen Critical Facility Impact

First of four phases Is it?

Impact is reduced, deflected or avoidedRecognizing hazards and impactsProtect facilities and service delivery

What are some critical facilities? Does their placement conflict with the hazard assessment data?

Should inform placement!

Hazard and Vulnerability Analysis

What can occurRecurrence intervalPotential damageImpacts to the communityVulnerability of community to specific hazard

Hazard Analysis/Risk Assessment

DetermineVulnerability

IdentifyHazards

ApplyScenarios

DevelopEnvironment/

CommunityProfile

ProfileHazards

Risk assessment involves researching the hazards that threaten the community and ranking them according to the risks they pose and the areas and infrastructure that are vulnerable to damage from an event involving the hazards. The outcome is a written hazard analysis that quantifies the overall risk to the community from each hazard.

•List of Hazards

•Magnitude•Frequency•Geographic extent•Duration•Seasonal patterns•Speed of onset

•Geography•Assets•Property•Infrastructure•Demographics•Response Organizations

•Quantify Risk•Set Response Priorities•Assign Severity Index•Prioritize Risks

•Initial warning•Potential total impact•Sector specific impacts•Overall consequences•Response actions and resources needed

Severity Ratings

SeveritySeverity CharacteristicsCharacteristics

CatastrophicCatastrophic •Multiple deaths. Multiple deaths. •Complete shutdown of critical facilities for 30 days or more. Complete shutdown of critical facilities for 30 days or more. •More than 50 percent of property severely damaged. More than 50 percent of property severely damaged.

CriticalCritical •Injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability. Injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability. •Complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least 2 weeks. Complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least 2 weeks. •More than 25 percent of property is severely damaged. More than 25 percent of property is severely damaged.

LimitedLimited •Injuries and/or illnesses do not result in permanent disability. Injuries and/or illnesses do not result in permanent disability. •Complete shutdown of critical facilities for more than 1 week. Complete shutdown of critical facilities for more than 1 week. •More than 10 percent of property is severely damaged. More than 10 percent of property is severely damaged.

Negligible Negligible •Injuries and/or illness treatable with first aid. Injuries and/or illness treatable with first aid. •Minor quality of life lost. Minor quality of life lost. •Shutdown of critical facilities and services for 24 hours or less. Shutdown of critical facilities and services for 24 hours or less. •Less than 10 percent of property severely damaged. Less than 10 percent of property severely damaged.

CharacteristicCharacteristic SeveritySeverity

MagnitudeMagnitude 1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic

2.2. CriticalCritical

3.3. LimitedLimited

4.4. NegligibleNegligible

Frequency of OccurrenceFrequency of Occurrence 1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic


3.3. LimitedLimited


Speed of OnsetSpeed of Onset 1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic


3.3. LimitedLimited


Community ImpactCommunity Impact 1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic


3.3. LimitedLimited


Special CharacteristicsSpecial Characteristics 1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic


3.3. LimitedLimited


Total RiskTotal Risk 1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic


3.3. LimitedLimited


Hazard:___________________


MagnitudeMagnitude

11

1.1. CatastrophicCatastrophic


3.3. LimitedLimited


Frequency of OccurrenceFrequency of Occurrence

22



3.3. LimitedLimited


Speed of OnsetSpeed of Onset

33



3.3. LimitedLimited


Community ImpactCommunity Impact

33



3.3. LimitedLimited


Special CharacteristicsSpecial Characteristics

33



3.3. LimitedLimited


Total RiskTotal Risk

12 / 2.412 / 2.4



3.3. LimitedLimited


Hazard: Tornado


MagnitudeMagnitude

11



3.3. LimitedLimited



44



3.3. LimitedLimited



33



3.3. LimitedLimited



22



3.3. LimitedLimited



22



3.3. LimitedLimited



12 / 2.412 / 2.4



3.3. LimitedLimited


Hazard Example: Terrorism


MagnitudeMagnitude

22



3.3. LimitedLimited



22



3.3. LimitedLimited



11



3.3. LimitedLimited



33



3.3. LimitedLimited



22



3.3. LimitedLimited



10 / 210 / 2



3.3. LimitedLimited


Hazard Example: Structure Fire

CharacteristicCharacteristic SeveritySeverityMagnitudeMagnitude

22



3.3. LimitedLimited



44



3.3. LimitedLimited



33



3.3. LimitedLimited



22



3.3. LimitedLimited



33



3.3. LimitedLimited



14 / 14 / 2.82.8



3.3. LimitedLimited


Hazard Example: Radiological Incident

Prioritized Results

Tornado 2.4Terrorism 2.4Radiological Incident 2.8Structure Fire 2.0

1. Catastrophic 2. Critical3. Limited4. Negligible

Example of Risk Overview

Low

Low

Medium

Med

ium

High

Hig

h

Pro

babi

lity

of O

ccur

renc

e

Severity of Consequences

Little concern

Moderate Concern

Major Concern

Immediate and Severe Concern

Chemical Spill

Flood

Nuclear Plant

Pandemic

Tornado

Lightning

Earthquake

Scenarios

Helps to identify situations that may exist in a disaster

Used to help ensure preparedness if hazard occurs

Scenario Composition

Initial warningPotential overall impactPotential impact on specific sectorsPotential consequences (damage, casualties,

loss of services)Action and resources necessary

FEMA

Emergency Planning (IS-235)Unit Three

General HA Example : Hazard Rating Table

Hazard Likelihood Potential Impact on Population

Potential Impact on Property

EOP coverage

0 = None

1 = Rare

2 = Occasional

3 = Frequent

0 = None

1 = Limited

2 = Substantial

3 = Major

0 = None

1 = Limited

2 = Substantial

3 = Major

0 = None

1 = Limited

2 = Substantial

3 = Full

Flood 1 1 3 3

Tornado 1 3 3 3

HAZUS

Hazard loss estimating softwareFloods, earthquakes, hurricanesPhysical damageEconomic lossSocial impacts

CARVER + Shock Software

Adapted from military version (CARVER)Used to assess vulnerabilities or

infrastructure within a system to attackManufacturing and Agricultural versionsAvailable from FDA

CARVER + Shock Assessment

Six attributes to evaluate potential of targetCriticality: measure of public health and

economic impacts of attackAccessibility: ability to physically access and

egress targetRecuperability: ease of system to recoverVulnerability: ease of accomplishing attackEffect: amount of direct loss from attack

measured by production lossRecognizability: ease of identifying target

Shock

Combined health, economic, and psychological impacts of attack

Potential impacts (even national)Psychological impacts increased if historical,

cultural, religious, or symbolic significanceImpacts increased if victims “sensitive”

populations such as children or elderlyEconomic damage such as lower economic

activity, higher unemployment

CARVER + Shock Rankings

Lower vulnerability (1-2)Higher vulnerability (9-10)Evaluate each attribute“Interview” and process flow diagram methodTotal scores range from 7-70User can determine most vulnerable parts of

infrastructure and prioritize most susceptible areas

Iowa Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment

Multi-step processIdentify hazardsCommunity profileProfile hazard eventsCascading event (secondary hazards)Prioritize hazards

Iowa HA Model : Measure Criticality and Vulnerability Separately

Criticality Elements Sub-element Sub-elementElement Subtotal

Mass Casualty Risk Effect (1-5) X Severity (1-5) 1-25

Emergency Response Function Time loss (1-5) X Jurisdiction Population (1-5) 1-25

Economic Impact Scope (1-5) X Impact (1-5) 1-25

Key Military Installations Time loss (1-5) X Facility Function (1-5) 1-25

Critical Infrastructure Time loss (1-5) X Population Impacted (1-5) 1-25

Continuity of Government Time loss (1-5) X Population Impacted (1-5) 1-25

Symbolic Asset Time loss (1-5) X Level of recognition (1-5) 1-25

Criticality Subtotal (x) 7-175

The criticality assessment is a process designed to systematically identify and evaluate important systems and infrastructure as it relates to the factors in the table below. Each of the sub-elements is given a score based on a scale of 1 through 5 dependent upon specific criteria. The criticality subtotal is converted to a percentage and then graphed along the X-axis of a coordinate system.

Iowa Model: Vulnerability Calculation

The vulnerability assessment is a process designed to systematically identify and evaluate important systems and infrastructure as it relates to the factors in the table below. The process identifies exposures in physical structures, personnel protection systems, and production processes. Each of the sub-elements is given a score based on a scale of 1 through 5 dependent upon specific criteria. The vulnerability subtotal is converted to a percentage and then graphed along the Y-axis of a coordinate system.

Vulnerability Elements Sub-element Sub-elementElement Subtotal

Visibility and Attendance Level of recognition (1-5) X Attendance (1-5) 1-25

Access to the Asset Access Proximity (1-5) X Security Level (1-5) 1-25

Site Specific Hazards Receptor Impacts (1-5) X Volume (1-5) 1-25

Vulnerability Subtotal (y) 3-75

Chart (X=Criticality, Y= Vulnerability)

Quadrant IV

High Vulnerability & Low Criticality

Quadrant I

High Criticality & High

Vulnerability

Quadrant III

Low Vulnerability & Low Criticality

Quadrant II

High Criticality & Low

Vulnerability

Asset Score = [Criticality, Vulnerability] = [((x/175)*100), ((y/75)*100)] = [X, Y]

Vu

lnera

bil

ity

(Y)

Criticality (X)

Conclusion

While Hazard Analysis is a general concept, it is flexible in complexity and measurements

There are many variations of hazard analysis depending on the c0mmunity focus

Hazard Analysis should be conducted annually for resource and preparedness assessment

Sources

FEMA IS-235: http://training.fema.gov/EMIWeb/downloads/IS235.pdf

HAZUS: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/hz_training.shtm

CARVER+Shock: http://www.fda.gov/Food/FoodDefense/CARVER/default.htm

Iowa Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment: http://www.iowahomelandsecurity.org/Partners/CountyCoordinators/Planning/IowaHazardAnalysisandRiskAssessment/tabid/161/Default.aspx

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