NATURAL HAZARDS NETWORKat the University of South Florida

2 University of South Florida

A Letter from the Director

n 2012, the combined effects of HurricaneSandy, the heat wave and drought that affected

most of the U.S. midwest and other weather-re-lated disasters cost the nation about $100 billion.This was still less than the record $200 billion thenation spent in 2005, mainly from the effects andafter effects of Hurricane Katrina.

In the last 30 years, during aperiod when the nation'spopulation grew by about 30percent, costs from naturaldisasters increased by morethan a factor or five. If thesetrends continue, within thenext few decades the U.S. willlikely experience an annualloss from natural disasters ap-

proaching half a trillion dollars. Our nation cannotafford to continue this trend. Many other nations

face similar challenges, including the long termproblems posed by climate change and sea levelrise.

USF is a global research university with more than50 faculty engaged in various aspects of hazardsand disaster research, including causes, mitigationand response. USF's Natural Hazards Network is anetwork of scientists, engineers and policy expertswhose goal is to greatly reduce these lossesthrough research and improved engineering, man-agement, communication and policy. We haveworking relationships with industry and policymakers, both domestic and foreign. Please con-sider joining our efforts.

Tim Dixon, Ph.D.DirectorUSF Natural Hazards Network

I

Natural Hazards Network 3

Our missionUSF’s Natural Hazards Network aims to reduce the impact of naturalhazards on society by improving our understanding of the magnitudeand effects of natural hazards, improving preparedness and reactionof people to these hazards, and developing strategies to improveboth resilience to disasters prior to the event and response to disas-ters when they occur.

4 University of South Florida

Natural Hazards Network 5

About the Natural Hazards Network

The USF Natural Hazards Network’s approach involves a combination of

state-of-the-art research and “boots on the ground” involvement with

local experts and local populations. Our activities include a combination

of scientific research, engineering and policy. We work with local scien-

tists, engineers and policy experts, as well as U.S. and foreign government

agencies, NGOs, other U.S. universities and international universities. Our

researchers have decades of experience in the following areas:

Sensors and MeasurementComputer Simulation

Disaster PolicyHealth

Rapid ResponseCommunity Resilience and Vulnerability

Long-Term Trends

n Volcanoesn Volcanic Earthquakesn Tectonic Earthquakesn Space Geodesyn Geo-mechanical Modelsn Hurricane Forecastsn Hurricane Responsen Sea Level Risen Ocean Acidificationn Coastal Subsidencen Living Marine Resources

n Marine Sensor Developmentn Coastal Processesn Port Security and Sustainabilityn Harmful Algal Bloomsn Storm Surgen High-Speed Computingn Three-Dimensional Visualizationn Educationn Social Science Outreachn Communication

Faculty Area of Expertise

Natural Hazards Network

Sensors and MeasurementWe develop, test and deploy sensors to better un-derstand natural hazards and environmentalchange on a variety of scales. Examples include:

1) Seismic arrays for detecting and understandingearthquakes;

2) GPS arrays for detecting millimeter changes intectonic plate movements that may indicatehazards associated with earthquake faults andvolcanoes;

3) Lightning detection arrays, for meteorologicaland volcanic hazard forecasts;

4) Tide gauge networks for sea level rise, tsunamiand earthquake strain (collaboration with theUSF College of Marine Science);

5) Underwater arrays of autonomous underwatervehicles and profilers for study of marine con-ditions (collaboration with the USF College ofMarine Science).

Our existing GPS and seismic networks in CentralAmerica are designed to enhance research, edu-cation and scientific capacity, and better under-stand the earthquake, tsunami and volcanoprocess. We are working with the Army Corps ofEngineers to expand the network to include off-shore capability. New instrument development andtesting includes use of terrestrial LiDAR and ter-restrial radar to detect changes in slope stabilityof volcanoes and potential landslides, deploymentof high resolution, low cost magnetometers in ar-rays, infrasound network development, offshorestrain monitoring for earthquake and tsunami haz-ard, and autonomous marine profilers to improveunderstanding of sea level rise.

Computer SimulationOur researches use computer simulations and cy-berinfrastructure to help understand and forecastnatural hazards. We develop and test computer al-

gorithms and codes to simulate natural hazardsand its effects, and to rapidly assess hazards forcommunities, critical infrastructure, and in antici-pation of response.

These codes include hurricane track forecasts,slope stability, earthquake shaking simulations,volcanic ash dispersion, lava flow, pyroclastic flowand debris flows, and storm surge.

Our research in code development includes devel-oping new modeling tools to solve specific prob-lems, model verification and validation. The codesare used in research, to better understandprocesses, and in outreach, education and training. Examples include:

1) We have teamed with colleagues at the Geo-hazards Center at University of Buffalo on anNSF sponsored project to develop cyberinfra-structure for volcanic hazard assessment andmitigation. See the Vhub.org website.

2) Tephra2: Tephra (volcanic ash) sedimentationmodels are used to forecast the accumulationof tephra across a region due to volcanic erup-tions, or to infer the characteristics of pasteruptions from tephra fallout deposits. We de-veloped Tephra2 to help improve forecasts ofpotential eruptive activity, and to quantify theimpacts of past eruptions. Tephra2 was devel-oped with colleagues in the CERG at Universityof Geneva and is used all over the world. Thecode is open-source and extensively docu-mented.

3) Lava2: Lava flows can extend tens of kilometersfrom an erupting volcano and generally de-stroy everything they encounter. We devel-oped the Lava2 code to simulate areas ofpotential lava inundation for probabilistic haz-ard forecasts. This model has been applied tounderstanding lava flow hazards in Armenia,Chile, Russia and elsewhere.

4) Energy Cone: How far away from a mountain or

6 University of South Florida

Natural Hazards Network 7

volcano is safe from debris avalanches, pyro-clastic flows and similar phenomena? Our fac-ulty developed the energy code, based onphysical insights first made by Mike Sheridanand colleagues, to answer such questions usingShuttle Radar Topography digital elevationmodels and simple assumptions about the en-ergetics of such flows.

Tephra Fallout HazardsWe have written an open-source model for tephradispersion that is especially well-suited for under-standing and estimating the impacts of tephra(volcanic ash fallout) within a few hundred kilome-ters of an erupting volcano. The tephra falloutmodel is based on the advection-diffusion equa-tion, accounts for variable particle settling velocity,meteorological conditions and eruption intensity. A recent application of the Tephra2 code to the2011 eruption of Shinmoedaki vent at Krishima vol-cano, located on the heavily populated island ofKyushu, Japan:

n The 2011 eruption of Shinmoedaki spread vol-canic ash (tephra) across Southeast Kyushu.

USF faculty worked with colleagues from Ku-mamoto University (Kyushu, Japan) to modelthe impacts of this eruption.

USF faculty produced a map of the dispersion ofvolcanic ash from the 2011 Kirishima eruption,showing the mass per unit area and thickness oftephra in the countryside surrounding the eruptingvolcano.

Model testing (validation) is a crucial part of modeluse in hazards assessment. Our researchers plot-ted the observed tephra accumulation from sam-ple points downwind of the 2011 Kirishima eruptionagainst values calculated for specific eruption con-ditions using the Tephra2 model.

Long Term TrendsWe study long term trends in natural hazards, in-cluding the increasing costs of natural hazardswith time, the impact of global warming on sealevel rise and storm surge, ground water depletion,

8 / University of South Florida

and the relation of sink hole activity to changingwater tables.

Community Resilience and VulnerabilityHazard literature frequently refers to sustainabilityand resilience as guiding principles behind hazardplanning and mitigation. Certainly, structurally or-ganizing communities to minimize impacts of dis-asters and to recover quickly by restoringsocio-economic vitality are laudable goals. How-ever, while anticipating such outcomes is relativelyeasy from a theoretical standpoint, practical im-plementation of comprehensive plans is muchmore elusive. Relationships between communitysustainability/resilience and hazards are complexinvolving many cultural, social structural, eco-nomic, political and physical factors. Researchersat USF are actively pursuing studies to unpack theintricacies of these human forces that ultimatelydetermine disaster outcomes.

VulnerabilityA key concept in understanding environmentalhazards is vulnerability and its role in exacerbatingor ameliorating the effects of extreme events. It is

the interaction of physical and human environ-ments that determines exposure and risk, but it isthe combination of risk and vulnerability that re-flects the degree to which societies and individualsare threatened by, or alternatively protected from,the potentially disastrous impacts of these events.Vulnerability has been described as a human-in-duced situation that results from the availabilityand distribution of resources throughout a society.This vulnerability may come from simple exposureto the geophysical event or, more likely, is linkedto prevailing cultural, social structural, economic,and political forces.

It is abundantly clear that hazards do not affecteveryone equally; some people and places areconsiderably more vulnerable than others. For in-stance, research has repeatedly demonstrated thatsome groups invariably suffer most in disasters,with higher levels of vulnerability correlated withhigher levels of poverty, with the politically disen-franchised, and with those excluded from themainstream of society for whatever reasons. In thiscontext, therefore, vulnerability is seen as a humancondition, not simply as exposure to extreme geo-physical processes. Researchers at USF are ac-tively pursuing studies to understand how factors

Natural Hazards Network 9

of vulnerability exacerbate or ameliorate disasterimpacts.

Disaster PolicyDisaster policy is a set of guidelines designed toshape programs and practices in the process ofdisaster mitigation and/or recovery. While disasterpolicy recommendations must consider the geo-physical hazard or impetus to the disaster, thesocio-cultural conditions and context are critical toenhance the acceptability and sustainability of thepractices recommended. Researchers are activelylooking at how such policies influence disaster im-pacts and recovery in different contexts.

The USF Natural Hazards Network is designed tohelp meet the needs of local governments by pro-viding the means through technology to connectmultiple stakeholders in hazards mitigation.

Recently, our faculty have provided assistance tothe International Atomic Energy Agency on devel-opment of guidelines for volcanic hazard assess-ment in siting of nuclear facilities. These guidelineswere approved in 2012, unanimously by IAEAMember States. USF faculty and students are de-veloping guidelines for the State of Arizona for itsemergency response plan for volcanic crises.

Rapid ResponseWe deploy rapidly to regions impacted by naturalhazards or thought to be at elevated risk. Recent examples include: Volcanic hazards due torecent volcanic activity of Concepcion volcano,Nicaragua, sponsored by U.S. Southern Command;Rapid assessment of storm damage in Guatemalafrom Hurricane Stan in 2005, sponsored by U.S.Southern Command; Rapid assessment of damageand post-seismic motion from the September 2012Costa Rica earthquake, sponsored by NSF.

HealthWe study, consult with, and assist, communities,practitioners, and policy-makers to understand theimmediate and long-term health consequences(physical and emotional) of exposure to hazardsand disasters, and to develop possible remediation

strategies.

The Natural Hazards Network faculty whose re-search interests include a focus on the physicaland mental health of individuals affected by disas-ters are involved in teaching, research, and con-sulting. Our faculty offer the followinghealth-related courses:

n ANG 6469-002 Anthropological Perspectiveson Health and Disaster

n ANG 6469-001 Global Health from an Anthro-pological Perspective

n COPH Disaster Management and HumanitarianRelief Concentration

n Medical Anthropology Certificate

After Action Studies After a significant event, experts can study com-munity and government response, how pre-exist-ing infrastructure performed, and how rebuildingis progressing.

Recent examples include the long-term recoveryfrom the Panabaj debris flow (Guatemala) spon-sored by OxFam.

USF faculty were asked to assess the impacts ofthe Panabaj debris flow, which killed about 400people after partial collapse of Toliman volcano inGuatemala, during Hurricane Stan. A primary goalof the mission was to assess if temporary housinglocated adjacent to the debris flow was safe fromfurther potential debris flows from the volcano'sunstable slope. 

ConsultingNatural Hazards Network researchers frequentlyconsult on a variety of topics, including reproduc-tive rights for women in displacement camps;child-maternal health among displaced and evac-uated peoples; water and engineering for healthin relocation camps.

Training, Workshops and OutreachWe host training and workshops on wide varietytopics, including scenario development and re-sponse modeling, computer simulating and visual-ization. Our workshops have been hosted at USF,

10 University of South Florida

and also in El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica,Colombia, Ecuador and Bolivia. Natural HazardsNetwork offers a few training options:

n Book on the Shelf: Scenario development, nat-ural and technological disasters

n MOOCs: Online training modules for NORTH-COM personnel

n Training Modules: Easily downloaded the appto your phone or tablet.

n Operational Aspects: WIIFM at crisis-positioncommand center for natural disasters (strate-gic moves and what NOT to do)

n Sensors/Volcano Monitoring: Where to have acommand center

n Probability Trees: Scenarios workshops

Visit us on the web for more information on the

USF Natural Hazards Network.

www.cas.usf.edu/hazards

Scan this QR code with your smartphone to visit us on the web.

Natural Hazards Network 11

Current Research

BooksErsing, R.L., & Kost, K.A. (Eds.). (2012). Survivingdisaster: The role of social networks. Lyceum Press.

Volcanic and Tectonic Hazard Assessment for Nu-clear Facilities (2009). Edited by C.B. Connor, N.A.Chapman, and L.J., Connor. Cambridge UniversityPress, 623 pp.

Statistics in Volcanology (2006). Edited by H. M.Mader, S. G. Coles, C.B. Connor, and L.J.,Connor.Geological Society of London, 285 pp.

Tobin, G.A. and Montz, B.E. (1997) Natural Hazards:Explanation and Integration. Guilford Publishing:New York, New York. 388 pp.

Recent Technical ReportsTopaz Project: Long-term Tectonic hazards to ge-ological repositories: an extension of the ITM prob-abilistic hazard assessment methodology to 1 Myr.For: Nuclear Waste Organization of Japan(NUMO), NUMO-TR-12_05, October 2012.

Kar Kar Geothermal Investigation, Armenia, FinalReport. For: Armenia National Academy of Sci-ences and WorldBank. May 2012.

Volcanic Hazard Assessment of the Armenia Nu-clear Power Plant Site, Final Report. For: Ministryof Energy of Armenia. February 2011.

Recent Journal Articles Kusenbach, M. and G. Christmann (). “Understand-ing Hurricane Vulnerability: Lessons from MobileHome Communities. pp. 61-84 in: Naim Kapucu,Christopher Hawkins & Fernando Rivera (eds.),Disaster Resiliency: Interdisciplinary Perspectives,New York: Routlege.

Simms, J. L., M. Kusenbach and G. A. Tobin (2013forthcoming). Equally Unprepared: Assessing theHurricane Vulnerability of Undergraduate Stu-dents. Weather, Climate & Society (accepted inFebruary 2013).

Rahill, G. J., Ganapati, N. E., Clerisme, J. C. &Mukherji, A. (2013). Re-housing urban Haiti afterthe earthquake: Dual role of social capital. Disas-ters Journal.

Whiteford, Linda; Graham Tobin, Arthur Murphy,Eric Jones, Cecilia Vindrola Padros, We must Con-sider the Children. In Disaster and EmergencyManagement. 2013.

Tobin, G.A., Whiteford, L.M., Jones, E.C., Murphy,A.D., Garren, S.J. and Vindrola Padros, C. (2013)The Role of Individual Well-Being in Risk Percep-tion and Evacuation for Chronic vs. Acute NaturalHazards in Mexico. Applied Geography, Vol. No. pp.

Eric Jones, Arthur Murphy, Graham Tobin, LindaWhiteford. Cross-Cultural and Site-Based Influ-ences on Demographic, Well-being, and SocialNetwork Predictors of Risk Perception in Hazardand Disaster Settings in Ecuador and Mexico. Ed-ited by Carol Ember. Disasters, Stress and Uncer-tainty Human Nature 24(1), 2013.

Charbonnier, SJ, AM Germa, CB Connor, R Ger-tisser, K Preece, J-C Komorowski, F Lavigne, THDixon, LJ Connor, (2013) Evaluation of the impactof the 2010 pyroclastic density currents at Merapivolcano from high resolution satellite imageryanalysis, field investigations and numerical simula-tions, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Re-search, Special Volume: Merapi 2010.

12 University of South Florida

This publication was pro-duced by the University ofSoth Florida College of Artsand Sciences. To request ad-ditional copies, please contactthe Office of the Dean at813.974.2804.

DEANEric M. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

EDITORMichele Dye

COPY EDITORSSandy JusticeDenise BurganPaige Rushing

COPY WRITERSTim Dixon

Sandy Justice

PHOTOGRAPHYAssociated Press

Judy McIlrath

ART DIRECTORMichele Dye

USFCollege

@USF_College

@USFCollege

USFCAS

www.cas.usf.edu

NATURAL HAZARDS NETWORKat the University of South Florida

USF is a global research university with more than

50 faculty engaged in various aspects of hazards

and disaster research, including causes, mitigation,

and response. USF's Natural Hazards Network is a

network of scientists, engineers and policy experts

whose goal is to greatly reduce these losses

through research and improved engineering, man-

agement, communication and policy.

PartnersUSF Advanced Visualization CenterUSF Alliance For Integrated Spatial Technologies Center for GeoHazards Studies at the University at BuffaloCERG-C at the University of GenevaInternational Seismic Safety Centre (ISSC) Instituto Nicaraguense de Estudio Territoriales (Nicaragua)Georisk (Armenia) Obayashi CorporationMCM InternationalAF ConsultOVSICORI-UNA (Costa Rica)