High-Brightness LEDMarket Review and Forecast
2011
Twelfth Edition
September 2011
Strategies Unlimited201 San Antonio Circle, Suite 225Mountain View, California 94040
Phone: (650) 941-3438 Fax: (650) 941-5120e-mail: [email protected]
©Strategies Unlimited 2011
Copyright 2011 Strategies Unlimited.All rights reserved.
No material contained in this report may be reproduced in whole or in part without the express written permission of Strategies Unlimited. This report is intended for the sole and exclusive use of the original purchaser and may not be distributed or transferred in any form to any other person or entity.
Strategies Unlimited provides the information in this report for informational purposes only and does not grant any express or implied warranty, guaranty, or representation concerning the information contained in this report, its merchantability, or its fitness for a particular purpose or function. Any reference to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by Strategies Unlimited. Neither Strategies Unlimited nor any of its affiliates shall be liable to you or any third party in damages of whatever kind that may result from any reliance on (or use of) any information contained in this report. By receiving this report, you acknowledge that any reliance on information contained in this report shall be at your sole risk and that no representations have been made to you that are inconsistent with the foregoing.
©Strategies Unlimited 2011
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY 1
1.1 Introduction 11.2 Executive Overview 2
1.2.1 Market Summary 21.2.2 Material Summary 71.2.3 Suppliers Summary 11
2. DISPLAY BACKLIGHTS FOR TVs AND MONITORS 13
2.1 Disiplay Backlights for TV and Monitor 132.2 Display Backlight for Led TV 15
2.2.1 Market Overview 152.2.2 Technology 182.2.3 Market Factors 212.2.4 Summary for TV 26
2.3 LED Monitor Display Backlight 292.3.1 Market Overview 292.3.2 Technology 302.3.3 Summary for Monitor & AIO PC 31
2.4 Video Wall 342.5 Material Summary 35
3. AUTOMOTIVE LIGHTING 37
3.1 Introduction 373.1.1 2010 Review 37
3.2 Market Trends 403.3 Automotive Exterior Lighting 44
3.3.1 Market Structure 443.3.2 Regulations 443.3.3 LEDs are Used in Automotive Exterior Lighitng in the Following
Functions 453.3.4 CHMSLs 453.3.5 Rear Lighting 463.3.6 Front Turn Signal 513.3.7 Side-Mirror Mounted Turn Signal Lamps 523.3.8 Back Up Lamps 543.3.9 License Plate Lamps 553.3.10 Front Position Lamps 553.3.11 Headlamps 553.3.12 DRL (Daytime Running Lights) 603.3.13 Truck, Bus, and Emergency Vehicle 643.3.14 Two-Wheel Vehicles 67
©Strategies Unlimited 2011
TABLE OF CONTENTS(Continued)
3.3.15 Others 693.3.16 Aftermarket 703.3.17 Summary 70
3.4 Automotive Interior Lighting 753.5 Inside Displays 79
4. MOBILE APPLIANCES 83
4.1 Mobile Phones 844.1.1 Market Overview 844.1.2 Camera Flash in Phones 884.1.3 Display 904.1.4 Keypad 944.1.5 Others 954.1.6 Summary 95
4.2 Mobile Computing 984.2.1 Notebook Computers 984.2.2 Tablets 1004.2.3 Summary 103
4.3 Other Mobile Appliances 104
5. SIGNS 112
5.1 Full/Multi/Single Color Signs 1135.1.1 Market Overview 1135.1.2 Full-Color Signs 1185.1.3 Single/Multi Color Signs 1195.1.4 Summary for Full/Single/Multi Color Signs 209
5.2 Channel Letters and Contours 1225.2.1 Factors 124
5.3 Others 1265.3.1 Sign Box 1265.3.2 Tunnel Advertising System 127
5.4 Summary 129
6. Illumination 131
6.1 Market Review 1316.2 Market Factors 1366.3 Advantages of LED for Illulmination 1396.4 Luminaires 141
6.4.5 Commercial and Industrial Lighting 1456.4.6 Retail Display 1456.4.7 Residential Lighting 1466.4.8 Outdoor Lighting 147
©Strategies Unlimited 2011
TABLE OF CONTENTS(Continued)
6.4.9 Off-Grid Lighting 1486.4.10 Consumer Portable 1496.4.11 Machine Vision 1506.4.12 Safety and Security 150
6.5 Replacement Lamps 1526.5.1 A-Lamps and Globe Lamps 1526.5.2 R and PAR Lamps 1546.5.3 MR16 Lamps 1556.5.4 Candelabras and Other Decorative Lamps 1556.5.5 Linear Fluorescent Tube Replacements 156
6.5 Summary of Materials & Package Types 152
7. Other Applications 1637.1 Overview 1637.2 Signals 164
7.2.1 Vehicular and Pedestrian Traffic Signals 1647.3 Projectors 1667.4 Gaming 1687.5 Horticulture/Fishing/Agriculture 1697.6 Miscellaneous 1727.7 Summary of “Others” Category 174
8. Supplier Analysis 1778.1 Japan 1808.2 Korea 1818.3 US/Europe 1838.4 Taiwan and Southeast Asia 1858.5 China 186
APPENDIX A – Product Definitions A1APPENDIX B – Exchange Rates B1APPENDIX C – Method of Analysis C1
©Strategies Unlimited 2011
LIST OF FIGURES
1.1 HB-LED Market Growth by Application 2009-2010 21.2 HB LED Market by Application 31.3 Disiplay Backlight (US $M) 2010 31.4 Disiplay Backlight Revenue 2010-15 41.5 HB-LED Market by Revenue & YoY Growth Rate 61.6 HB-LED Revenue CAGR by Application 2010-15 71.7 Worldwide HB-LED InGaAIP & RGB Units (M) 2010-15 81.8 Worldwide HB LED InGaN Units (M) 2010-15 91.9 Worldwide HB LED Market by Material Revenue (US $M) 2010-15_ 91.10 Material Unit and Revenue CAGR 2010-2015 101.11 LED Supplier Revenue US $(M) by Geography 2010 111.12 Cumulative Installations of MOCVD Equipment in China 12
2.1 TV, Monitor, AIOPC & Video Wall Display Backlight Revenue US $(M) 2010-15 132.2 Global TV Shipment by Technology 152.3 LED Penetration Rates of LCD TV by Size 2010 162.4 LED TV by Size (M) 2010 162.5 CCFL and LED Backlights Color Gamut 172.6 Power Consumption of Plasma TVs, LCD TVs with CCF Backlighlts, and LCD TVs
with LED Backlights 17
2.7 Direct Backlit with Local Dimming 192.8 Edge-Lit without Local Dimming 192.9 Edge-Lit with Local Dimming 192.10 Passive 3D Glasses 212.11 LED TV by Backlight Technology 222.12 The “nano film” (chips ono film) that makes up the backlightig element of the
LW9500 232.13 LG Nano LW9500 232.14 Vizio XVTT3D710CM 71” Cinema Disiplay 232.15 Samsung D800 with 0.2” Bezels 242.16 LED Bar Reduction Roadmap 252.17 HB LED Revenue in TV Display Backlight 272.18 TV Revenue by LED Package US $ (M) 2010-15 272.19 LED Monitor & AIO PC Units (M) 2010-15 292.20 Apple iMac 302.21 Samsung SA 950 312.22 Monitor Revenue US $(M) 2010-15 312.23 Monitor Revenue Growth US $(M) by Category (2010-15) 322.24 Video Wall 342.25 Summary Display by Material & Package Type (M) 352.26 Summary Display Revenue by Material & Package Type (US $M) 2010-15 36
3.1 Worldwide Production of Passenger Vehicles (M) 2009-2015 373.2 Automotive Revenue US $(M) 2010-2015 383.3 2010 Automotive Exterior Revenue US $(M) 393.4 Automotive Interior Lighting Revenue 2010 393.5 Revenue by Geography US $ (M) 2010-2015 433.6 CHMSL Revenue US $(M) 2010-15 463.7 CHMSL with 40 LED 46
LIST OF FIGURES(Continued)
3.8 Third-Party Replacement CHMSL with 12 LED 463.9 LED Rear Lamps on a 2011 BMW 730d 47
©Strategies Unlimited 2011
3.10 LED Rear Lamps on 2010 VW Gulf 473.11 2011 Dodge Charger 473.12 Opel Combination Rear Lamps 473.13 Braking Distance with LED Rear Lamps 483.14 Brake Force Display 483.15 Use of Light Lens to Create Smooth vs. Pixilated Look in RCL 493.16.A Use of Light Strings to Create Smooth vs. “Light Rings” or “Light Pipes” with
only 1 LED 493.16.B Cross Section of Light String
493.17 Rear Lamp Revenue US $(M) 2010-15 503.18 Rear Combination Lamps with LED Turning Signals for Range Rover 513.19 LED Front Turn Signal on a Hyunda Equis 513.20 Two Types of Side-Mirror-Mounted Turn Signal Repeaters 523.21 Mirror Mounted Side Turn Signal Revenue US $ (M) 2010-15 533.22 LED License Plate Lights on a Honda Civic 553.23 FAW WeiZhi FPL 563.24 Full-LED Headlamp in the Cadillac Escalade 563.25 OSRAM OSTAR Headlamp (used in the Audi A8) 573.26 Nissan Leaf with 2 LED per Headlamp 573.27 Luxeon Altilon are used in Headlamps 573.28 Headlamps Revenue US $(M) 2010-15 583.29 Case Study: Mercedes CLS Front Lights 593.30 The Many Faces of DRL 603.31 Opel DRL with Light String 603.32 2010 Inden Design Daihatsu Materia Icecube LED DRL 603.33 Future BMW DRL 613.34 Some styling works and some things do not. The Mercedes E-classes “Zetsche
Hooks” will be disconotinued in the next model. 613.35 2011 Audi A1 DRL uses 2 LED and Light Pipe for DRL 623.36 DRL Revenue US $(M) 2010-15 633.37 Truck Lights 643.38 Electric Bus 653.39 Emergency Vehicle Light Bars 653.40 British Police Car 653.41 Trucks, Buses and Emergency Vehicles Revenue US $(M) 2010-15 663.42 Electric Recumbent Bike 673.43 Electric Pocket (mini) Bike 673.44 2011 Kawasaki ZX-10R 683.45 2 Wheelers Revenue US $ (M) 2010-15 693.46 Kia Naimo (EV) Concept Car 693.47 Automotive Exerior Revenue by Category 2010-15 703.48 Automotive Exterior Revenue Growth by Category 2010-2015 713.49 Automotive Exterior Lighting Units (M) by Material 2010-15 733.50 Automotive Exterior Lighting Revenue by Material US $(M) 2010-15 743.51 Ford Edge; Choosing an Ambient Color 75
LIST OF FIGURES(Continued)
3.52 Hypnos by Citroen: A camera installed in the ceiling monitors the driver’s facial expressions and alters the cabin lighting and smell according to their mood 75
3.53 Ambient, Dome & Reading Light Revenue US $(M) 2010-15 763.54 Chrysler 300 773.55 Instrument Panel Revenue US $(M) 2010-15 783.56 Roewe 350; World’s first Car with Android-Powered Screen 793.57 2011 Subaru Outback Mirror Back-Up Camera 803.58 Automotive Interior Lighting Revenue by Category 2010-2015 813.59 Automotive Interior Lighting by Material (Units) 2010-15 81
©Strategies Unlimited 2011
3.60 Automotive Interior Lighting by Material (Revenue) 2010-15 82
4.1 Mobile Appliance Revenue US $(M) 2010 834.2 Worldwide Mobile Phones Units (M) 844.3 Mobile Phone Revenue (US $M) 2010 854.4 Feature Phones 854.5 iPhone 4 864.6 LG Thrill Android Smart Phone 864.7 Nokia C6 560 864.8 HTC Thunderbolt 864.9 China Gray Handset Shipments for Domestic And Export Markets (Thousands of
Units) 874.10 iPhone4 Clone 874.11 Camera in Mobile Phones 2010 884.12 Camera Flash 894.13 Total Flash Revenue & Units 2010-15 894.14 Smart Phone LED Display Revenue 904.15 Smart Phone Units by Display Type 2010-15 914.16 Samsung Galaxy 2 924.17 Nokia X7 924.18 Lenovo S 800 with Transparent Display 924.19 Feature Phone Display LED Revenue 2010-15 934.20 Total Keypad Revenue (US $M) 2010-15 954.21 Total Mobile Phone Revenue US $(M) 2010-15 964.22 Summary Mobile Phone Revenue Growth by Category 2010-15 964.23 Samsung Notebook 9 984.24 Apple MacBook Air 984.25 ASUS NX90Jq B2 984.26 Notebook Revenue US $(M) 2010-15 994.27 NEC LT-W 1014.28 Lenovo IdeaPad Hyprid U1 1014.29 Dell Inspiron Duo 1014.30 Motorola Xoom 1014.31 Apple iPad2 1024.32 Samsung Galaxy Tab with 7” Screen 1024.33 Tablet Revenue 2010-15 1024.34 Mobile Computing Revenue US $(M) 2010-15 1034.35 The Sony TX100V Compact Camera 105
LIST OF FIGURES(Continued)
4.36 Samsung Ice Touch Phone with Transparent OLED Display 1064.37 Sony NW-850 1064.38 Other Mobile Appl;icances Revenue US $(M) 2010-15 1074.39 Mobile Appliances Revenue Growth by Category US $(M) 2010-15 1094.40 Mobile Applialnces Revenue US $(M) 2010-15 1094.41 Mo;bile Appliance Revenue US $(M) by Material and Package Type 2010-15 110
5.1Sign Revenue US $(M) 2010-155.2Largest Sign in the World at Shanghai Expo5.3 Behind-the-scenes construction of the sign 1135.4 Sign Market by Production Base (US $M) 2010-15 1145.5 Made in China Signs by Application (US $M) 2010 1155.6 Chinese-Made Signs 1155.7 LED Revenue by Type of Sign (US $M) 2010-15 1165.8 Major LED suppliers to the Chinese Sign Industry 1175.9 A completed sign is going through its “image burn-in” for color and brightness
118
©Strategies Unlimited 2011
5.10 Sydney Opera House 1185.11 LED Billboard at Yankee Stadium 1185.12 LED Stage Backdrop 1185.13 Multicolor Sign 1195.14 Single-color sighn commonly seen on the streets of China 1195.15 Chinese made LED ASP Analysis (US $) 2010-15) 1195.16 Highway Sign 1205.17 Full/Multi/Single Color SignRevenue (US $M) & Unit (M) by Material 2010-15 1215.18 Channel Letter 1225.19 Reverse Lit LED Channel Letter 1225.20 LED Light Modules for Channel Letters 1225.21 Conotour Lighting that Mimics Neon 1235.22 Conotour Lighting as Borders 1235.23 TeraContour, a flexible LED light engine, and a rigid light guide that can be heat
formed andshaped designed to resemble exposed neon in signage and border lighting applications 123
5.24 Color-Changing Channel Letters 1235.25 Samsung LED Strings 1245.26 Chase’s acquisition of WaMu 1245.27 Channel Letters Units (M) and Revenue (US $M) 2010-15 1255.28 LED Modules for Side-lit Sign Box 1265.29 LED Modules for Direct-lit Sign Box 1265.30 Insie and Outside a Sign Box at SloanLED Booth ISA Las Vegas 2011 1265.31 Subway Tunnel Advertising System using Light Box 1275.32 Subway Tunnel Advertising System using Light Bars 1285.33 Total Sign Revenue by Material 2010-15 1295.34 Total Sign Units by Material 2010-15 130
6.1 LED Lighting Market (US $M) 2010-15 1316.2 2010 HB-LED Revenue from Illumination (US $M) 1336.3 Illumination HB-LED Revenue (US $M) 2010-15 133
LIST OF FIGURES(Continued)
6.4 Evolution of White LED Luminous Efficacy Best Aavailable Commercial Products134
6.5 White LED Technology and Cost Average 1 Watt Cool White Led Package 1356.6 DOE Manufacturing Workshop Consensus Forecast of Luminaire and LED Cost
2009-2020 1356.7 Timetable for Phasing Out Standard Incandescent Bulbs 1366.8 Luminaire HB-LED Revenue (US $M) 2010-15 1426.9 Shanghai World Expo using RGB Linear Lulminaire 1436.10 ColorBlast Powercore 1446.11 Components of Recessed Downlights 1456.12 LED Display Case Lighting Fixture 1466.13 Cree LLF LR6 LED Recessed Module 1476.14 Leotek Green Cobra 1476.15 80W LED Street Lamp using BridgeLux LED 1486.16 EDGE Parking Structure Luminaire 1486.17 Upper Thames Street Tunnel 1486.18 d.light S250 1486.19 Solar Power Street Lamps 1496.20 Transforming LED Flashlight Source 1496.21 LED Clip LIght 1496.22 Wearable Headlamp by Energizer using Cree XR-E LED 1506.23 LED Ring Light for Machine Vision 1506.24 Edge-Lit Exit Sign 151
©Strategies Unlimited 2011
6.25 LED Globe Replacement Lamp 1526.26A Different Implementations of A-Lamp (210-600 lm)
1536.26B Different Implementations of A-Lamp (210-600 lm)
1536.27 LED PAR 30 Replacemnt Lamp 1546.28 LED MR16 Replacement Lamps 1556.29 LED Candelabra Replacement Lamp 1566.30 LED Linear Fluorescent Tube Replacement 1566.31 T8 Replacement at $US 66 1576.32 Illumination InGaAIP & RGB Multichip Units (M) 2010-15 1586.33 Illumination InGaN Units (M) 2010-15 1596.34 Illumination InGaAIP & RGB Multichip Revenue (US RM) 2010-15 1606.35 Illumination InGaN Revenue (US $M) 2010-15 161
7.1 LED Traffic Signals 1647.2 Traffic Signal with Countdown 1647.3 Chinese Traffic Lights 1657.4 Casio Green Slim Projector 1667.5 Samsung SP-F10M 1667.6 3M MPro 120 Pico Projector 1677.7 Pico Projectors can sense tapped selections 1677.8 Popekorn M9000 1677.9 3M Camcorder Projector Shoot ‘n Share CP40 1677.10 Pachinko Machine 1687.11 Grow Light for medical marijuana hydroponics 1697.12 LED Fishing Lamps 170
LIST OF FIGURES(Continued)
7.13 LED-Based Therapy for TBI (Traumatic Brain Injury) 1727.14 Tron Gaming Mouse and Keyboard 1727.15 Blue LED lamps to treat the symptoms associated with Seasonal Affected
Disorder (SAD) 1727.16 LCD Digital Projector LED Tim Alarm Clock 1727.17 Galaxy Dress with 24,000 LEDs 1737.18 2010 Asian Games Opoening Ceremony, Guangzhou 1737.19 LED Gloves 1737.20 A Table with Multi-Color LEDs 1737.21 Solar Power Vending Machine Lit by LEDs 1737.22 Total Units for “Others” Category 1747.23 Total Revenue for “Others” Category” 1757.24 ASP for “Others” 2010-15 176
8.1 LED Revenue US $(M) by Geography 2010 1798.2 Japanese Revenue by Application 2010 1808.3 Korean Revenue (US $M) by Application 2010 182
©Strategies Unlimited 2011
LIST OF TABLES
1.1 Display Backlight Revenue 2010-2015 51.2 Worldwide HB-LED Revenue by Application 61.3 Worldwide InGaAIP & RGB Units (M) 81.4 Worldwide InGaN Units (M) 91.5 Worldwide Material (US $M) 101.6 Top 20 122.1 Display Backlight Revenue by Type 142.2 Mainstream LED Direct Backlit TVs (60mA LED) for 2010 192.3 Number of TVs by Technology 222.4 The Search for Thickness: LG Nano 2010 vs. 2011 222.5 Power Consumption Comparison 242.6 TV Revenue by Backlight Technology 262.7 LED by Package Type for TVs 282.8 Total Units of Monitors and AIO PCs 302.9 Summary Revenue of Monitors and AIO PCs 322.10 Summary Revenue of Monitors and AIO PCs by Package Type 332.11 Total Material Units (M) for Display 352.12 Total Material Revenue for Disiplay (US $M) 363.1 2010 Automotive Penetration Rates 423.2 CHSMLs 453.3 Rear Lamps (Stop/Tail/turn) 503.4 Mirror-Mounted Side Turn Signal 533.5 Back-Up Lamps 543.6 Headlamps 583.7 DRLs 623.8 Trucks, Buses, & Emergency Vehicles 633.9 e-Bikes 683.10 Automotive Exterior Lighting Revenue Summary 723.11 Automotive Exterior Lighting Units (M) by Material 723.12 Automotive Exterior Lighting Revenue by Material 733.13 Ambient, Dome, and Reading Light 763.14 Instrument Panel 773.15 In-Dash Console 793.16 Automotive Interior Lighting Summary 803.17 Automotive Interior Lighting Units by Material 823.18 Automotive Interior Lighting Revenue by Material 824.1 Worldwide Mobile Phone Units (M) 844.2 Flash 904.3 Smart Phone Backlights 914.4 Feature Phone Display 944.5 Keypads 944.6 Mobile Phones Revenue Summary 974.7 Notebook Computer 1004.8 Tablets 1024.9 Mobile Computing Revenue Summary 103
©Strategies Unlimited 2011
LIST OF TABLES(Continued)
4.10 Other Mobile Applications Unit and Revenue Summary 1084.11 Mobiel Appliance Revenue Summary 1104.12 Mobiel Appliance by Material and Package Summary 1115.1 Total Sign Market 1145.2 China Produced Sign Area (Million m2) by Type 1165.3 LED Revenue by Type of Sign (US $M) 1165.4 Full/Multi/Single Color Sign Material Analysis Units (M) & Revenue (US $M) 1215.5 Total Sign Revenue US $(M) 1295.6 Total Sign Units (M) 1306.1 LED Lighting Market Revenue 1326.2 HB-LED Illumination Revenue 2010-2015 1346.3 Luminaire Market Segments 1416.4 HB-LED Illumination Revenue by Application 1436.5 Illuminatin InGaAIP and RGB Material Analysis Units (M) 1596.6 Illlumination InGaN Material Analysis Units (M) 1606.7 Illumination InGAAIP and RGB Material Analysis Revenue 1616.8 Illumination InGaN Material Analysis Revenue 162
7.1 Suggested Lighting Guide for Poultry Production 1717.2 Total Units for “Others” Category 1757.3 Total Revenue for “Others” Category 176
8.1 Rankings of Worldwide LED Companies by HB-LED Revenue 1778.2 Japanese Producers 1808.3 Korean Producers 1818.4 U.S. & European Producers 1838.5 Taiwanese Producers 1858.6 Chinese Producers 186
A.1 HB LED Product Segmentation A3A.2 HB LED Materials and Characteristics A5
©Strategies Unlimited 2011
