Introduction and Applications

The World Bank

HDM-III International Collaboration

• Collaborative international studies1969 - 1995

• World Bank

• MIT, LCPC, TRRL, UNDP

• Governments of Kenya, Brazil,Caribbean, India

• $20+ million data collection in4 field studies

HDM-4 International Collaboration

OtherOtherContributorsContributors

SNRASNRASweRoadSweRoad

VTIVTI

TechnicalTechnicalAdvisorsAdvisors

ODAODAThe UniversityThe Universityof Birminghamof Birmingham

ADBADBN D Lea Int.N D Lea Int.

IKRAMIKRAM

FICEMFICEMICH (Chile)ICH (Chile)

Catholic Univ.Catholic Univ.

SponsorsSponsorsOverseas Development Administration (ODA)Overseas Development Administration (ODA)

Asian Development Bank (ADB)Asian Development Bank (ADB)Swedish National Road Administration (SNRA)Swedish National Road Administration (SNRA)

The World Bank (IBRD)The World Bank (IBRD)

Steering CommitteeSteering Committee(World Bank)(World Bank)

SecretariatSecretariatThe UniversityThe Universityof Birminghamof Birmingham

Limitations of HDM-III Vehicle and tire technology in the VOC studies

bears little resemblance to those of modern vehicles

HDM-III does not consider:• Traffic congestion (prior to 1995)• Rigid pavements• Many types of flexible pavements• Pavement texture and skid resistance• Freeze-thaw conditions• Traffic safety• Environmental impacts

Software for DOS environment

HDM-4 Technical Improvements• Pavements

• Wider range of flexible pavements• Rigid pavements• More maintenance types• Drainage effects• Freezing climates effects

• Road Users• New vehicle types• Characteristics of Modern Vehicles• Non-motorized traffic• Congestion effects • Accidents• Emissions & Energy consumption

HDM-4 Software Improvements

• Windows 95/98/NT Environment– Easy to use– Different levels of input data

• Three Application Modules– Project Evaluation – Network Programme Evaluation– Network Strategic Planning Evaluation

• Better interface with Pavement Management Systems

The HDM-4 Model

Analytical tool for engineering andeconomic assessment of

- road investments and maintenance

- transport pricing and regulation

Physical and economic relationships derivedfrom extensive research on road deterioration,the effects of maintenance activities, and vehicle operation and user costs

Road Agency Alternatives

Standards / Alternatives Policies / Strategies Norms / Options

- 4 cm overlay every 8 years - 6 cm overlay every 15 years - reseal the road and postpone the overlay - reconstruct the road when IRI = 10 - do nothing

- grading every 180 days - upgrade unpaved road to a paved standard

Evaluation of AlternativesEconomic evaluation

Technical evaluation

Institutional evaluation

Financial evaluation

Commercial evaluation

Social evaluation

Environmental evaluation

Transport Benefits

Reduce vehicle operating costSavings in time of passengers

and cargoReduction of accidents

Stimulate regional developmentIncrease the comfort and

convenienceBetter national integrationNational securityGreater self-sufficiencyEqual distribution of incomePrestige of the country

The HDM-II

and HDM-

III Initiativ

e

1969-1971 Phase 1 - Conceptual Framework- MIT, TRRL- First Prototype - LCPC- The World Bank

1971-1975 Kenya Study - VOC Study- TRRL- Road Deterioration Study - Kenya- The World Bank

1977-1982 Caribbean Study- VOC Study- TRRL- Caribbean Countries

1977-1983 India Study - VOC Study - CRRI - New Delhi

1975-1982 Brazil Study - VOC Study- GEIPOT - Brazil

- Road Deterioration Study - United Nations - The World Bank- Texas Research

1981-1987 Final Phase - Modeling - The World Bank

1987 HDM-III Publications - Research Documentation - The World Bank

1989 HDM-III Software - PC Computer software - The World Bank

1995 HDM System - Congestion, HDM Manager - The World Bank

The

HDM

Computer

Programs

HDM-I1970

HDM-II1975

HDM-III1985

Fortran

HDM Manager 1.01991

Clipper / DOS

HDM Manager 2.01993

HDM Manager 3.01995

HDM Manager 3.21999

HDM-IIIPC 1989

HDM-QPC 1995

HDM-42000

Mai

nfra

me

Windows 95/98/NT

Limited Distribution

The Beginn

ing, 1969

More than 10,000 million dollars are spent on the highway sector each year in developing countries. The cost borne by the road-using public for vehicle operation are typically 8 to 10 times greater

In Europe and North America: - high traffic volumes - high values attached to travel time savings - relatively abundant capital resources

In developing countries: - traffic levels often much lower - values given to travel time savings are far lower - acute shortage of financial resources

Pavement Management Approaches

Condition-responsive/financial approachphysical standards are set in relation to:a) perceived technical requirements, b) acceptable service levels, and c) received budget

Crisis-oriented approachhighway facilities are operated with little or no maintenance until obstructive failure occurs that needs extensive restoration and reconstruction work

Technical-economic efficiency approachfunctional and technical standards are selected tominimize total road transport costs to society.

Technical-economic Efficiency

Year0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Year0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Year0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Agency Costs (at 12%)

Net present Value (at 12%)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 300

20

40

60

80

100

120

Terminal Life

R.L.

CurrentCondition

Condition

Ride m/kmDistress %Rut mmStructural #Safety #

Index

90

Rating

Poor

ComposedIndexOverallIndex

- Current Condition- Deterioration Prediction

Remaining Service Life

- Current Condition- Deterioration Prediction- Maintenance Effects- Vehicle Operating Costs

Benefits to Society

Condition

Condition

Condition

Total Society Costs

� Construction

� Maintenance

� Vehicle operation

� Passenger and cargo time

� Accidents

ROAD AGENCY COSTS

ROAD USER COSTS

=

+

Composition of Total Society Costs

CONSTRUCTION- Pavement- Structures- Furniture- Formation- Land

MAINTENANCE- Routine- Pavement- Structures

SYSTEM OPERATION- Traffic mgt.- Safety- Management

EXTERNAL- Accidents- Pollution- Access- Production

ROAD USERS- Fuel, lubricants- Maintenance- Depreciation- Time- Accidents

Total Society Costs

Total Society Costs

Improve Standard

Road Agency Costs

Road User Costs

Minimizing Consumption of Resources

Infrastructure

Road Users

Road Agency

Consumption of Resources

litersm3

hours

XUnit Costs

=Total Society Costs

Financial & Economic Unit

Costs• Financial Prices Market Prices

• Economic Prices Shadow Prices Social Prices

Do not reflect thereal scarcity valueof the inputs

Developing Countries- Government Controls Taxes Subsidies Regulations- Rapid Inflation- Overvaluation of Domestic Currency

Road User Costs Model

RoadGeometry,Condition

Driver,TrafficFlow

VehicleCharacteristics

Fuel & LubricantsTireMaintenance Parts & LaborCrew TimeDepreciation & InterestPassenger & cargo time

SPEED

CO

MP

SU

MP

TIO

N

Paved Road Deterioration Model

Moisture,TemperatureAging

Traffic,Loading

PavementMaterials,Thickness

Cracking

Ravelling

Potholing

Rutting

Roughness

Vehicle Operating

Costs

0.00

0.200.40

0.600.80

1.00

1.201.40

1.601.80

2.00

2 6 9 13 16 20

Roughness (IRI)

VO

C p

er v

ehic

le-k

m (

$)

Car Truck Articulated Truck

Costs-shares Under Optimal Maintenance

50 veh/day 300 veh/day 5000 veh/day

Agency CostsAgency Costs

Agency Costs

User Costs

User Costs

User Costs

Primary Features of

HDM-4• Simulates deterioration and maintenance

of paved and unpaved roads, in physicalcondition and quantities, for strategies defined by the user

• Simulates road user costs (speedsand consumption of physical components)

• Determines time-streams of road agency,road user costs, and net benefits

• Computes economic indicators

HDM-4 Limitations

• The model does not perform a network traffic assignment

• The model does not internally costs environmental impacts such as air or noise pollution

• The model does not address urban conditions (start/stop)

• The model does not evaluate cement blocks and cobblestone pavements

Important Uses of HDM-4� Analytical support to justify funding

� Forecasting financial and physical needsfor preserving road network

� Optimal maintenance strategies

� Economic thresholds for road improvements

� Tradeoffs between design and maintenancestandards or options

� Simulating type and extent of deterioration

� Road use cost and damage attribution, inroad transport pricing and taxation(user charges, fuel tax, etc.)

� Optimal axle loading and configuration

� Fleet modernization

Planning and Programming

Technical Applications

Economic Applications

Planning

• Medium- & long-term evaluation of options & strategies: 4-, 5-, 6- or 10-yrs

• Outputs:– Program allocations by network & region (routine m.,

periodic m, rehab., betterment, etc.) - approximate quantity, cost, benefit

– Outcome in performance– Major development schemes identified and preparation

scheduled

Programming

• Annual or 2-3-yr rolling program prepared for each network, within imposed budget allocations

• Output: – individual projects identified in each program,

network & region

– cost and benefit estimates

• Network-Level Analysis

Project Preparation• Comparison of project-alternatives, economic

justification:– pre-feasibility study– feasibility study

Technical Standards• Definition of road agency norms and policies:

– Levels of service– Recommended works– Trigger points

HDM-4 Application

s• Project evaluation• Project formulation• Maintenance needs

forecasting• Network program formulation• Network strategic planning• Technical standards• Vehicle policies

Project Evaluati

on

A Gravel Road

Current Policy

- Routine maintenance

- Gravel resurfacing when thickness of gravel is less than 50mm

- Grading every 90 day

Proposed Project- Upgrade the road to a paved standard- After the upgrading, routine maintenance, patching 100% of the potholes, and resealing when damaged area > 20%

Comparison of Alternatives• Evaluation Period = 20 years

• Discount rate = 12.00 %

Internal Construction Road Net Rate ofLength Maintenance User Total Present Return(km) Alt Costs Costs Costs Value (%)

100.0 BASE 2.71 26.7 29.4 PROJ 9.28 17.0 26.2 3.2 17.1

Is the project economically justified?

Project Formulation

A Gravel Road

- Grading every 180 days

-Grading every 90 days

- Grading every 60 days

- Grading every 30 days

- Grading every 15 days

- Grading every 7 days

- Upgrade in 2001

- Upgrade in 2002

- Upgrade in 2003

- Upgrade in 2004

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 2 4 6 8 10

Present Value of Agency Costs at 12%

Net

Pre

sen

t V

alu

e at

12%

15 Days

180 Days

90 Days

60 Days

30 Days

7 Days

2004

2003

2002

2001

Project Economi

c Efficienc

y Frontier

Which is the optimal strategy?

Maintenance

Needs Forecas

tingA Paved Roadin Good Condition

- Routine Maintenance Reconstruction when IRI > 11.0

- Routine Maintenance Patching 100% of potholes Reconstruction when IRI > 11.0

- Routine Maintenance Patching 100% of potholes 12 mm Resealing when damage is > 30% Reconstruction when IRI > 11.0

- Routine Maintenance Patching 100% of potholes 4 cm overlay when IRI is > 4.0

- Routine Maintenance Patching 100% of potholes 8 cm overlay when IRI is > 4.0

Roughness Progression

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 5 10 15 20 25

Year

Ro

ug

hn

es

s (

IRI m

/km

)

BASE

P100

RE30

OS40

OD40

Efficiency Frontier

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Agency Costs (at 12%)

Ne

t p

res

en

t V

alu

e (

at

12

%)

BASE

Patch

4 cm

12 mm

8 cm

What will be the future maintenance needs?

Network Program Formulat

ionand

Optimization

A Road Network

- What are the resources needed to maintain the network?

- How should the agency allocate the resources needed for an optimal maintenance program?

- What maintenance program should be implemented in case of budgetary constraints?

Budgetary Constraints

A Road Network

G F PL

M

H

A.C.

Resource Constraints

Optimal Strategy underBudgetary Constraints

StrategywithoutBudgetConstraint

OptimizationModule

Diagnostic of the

NetworkRoughness in 1998

< 3.5 IRI28%

3.5 < IRI < 5.08%

> 5.0 IRI64%

Consequences to Society

What are the consequences of budget constraints? What is the recommended work program?

Society Net Benefits Present Value (Billion Rs)

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 1 2 3 4 5 6Periodic Expenditures (Billion Rs/year)

Consequences to the Network

Scenario: 6 Billion Rs per year

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

Year

Ne

two

rk C

on

diti

on

(%

)

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

Ave

rag

e R

ou

gh

ne

ss (

IRI)

Poor

Fair

Good

Avg. IRI

Consequences to the

UsersNetwork Road User Costs (Billion Rs)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

6 BillionRs perYearCase

WithoutProjectCase

Savings:152 Billion Rs

Definition of a Budget

LevelAverage Network Roughness (IRI)

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Year

6.0

3.0

4.5

2.0

1.0

BudgetScenarios(Rs B per year)

Prioritized Work

Program

Rough All Rut TotalFrom To Length Width ness Cracks Depth Traffic Road Cost NPV NPV/

Link City City Type (km) (m) (IRI) (%) (mm) (ADT) Class Solution B Rs B Rs Cost52 Peshawar Jamrud AC 19 7.3 3.3 27.5 14 3657 P3AZ 02 - 1 0.01 0.46 31.4658 ChichawatniSahiwal AC 86 7.3 1.5 26.7 6 4628 P3AZ 02 - 1 0.07 2.06 31.4632 Shahdara Muridke AC 15 7.3 9.9 0.0 0 13994 P5DX 06 - 1 0.15 2.72 18.1425 Khanewal Mian Channu AC 46 7.3 9.3 76.6 0 9754 P5DZ 12 - 1 0.50 7.29 14.593 Hala Sakrand ST 41 7.3 7.3 30.3 4 7040 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.43 5.37 12.405 Qazi AhmedMoro ST 56 7.3 7.7 47.9 4 8000 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.59 7.34 12.4012 Panu Aqil Ghotki ST 28 7.3 7.8 32.1 3 8736 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.30 3.67 12.4015 Daherki Ubaro ST 14 7.3 10.7 26.2 10 8832 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.15 1.84 12.4016 Ubaro Sadiq Abad ST 41 7.3 8.3 41.8 8 8880 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.43 5.37 12.406 Moro Nowshero FerozST 25 7.3 8.6 32.6 7 7013 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.26 3.28 12.4011 Rohri Panu Aqil ST 32 7.3 7.4 41.9 13 11101 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.34 4.19 12.4013 Ghotki Mir Pur MatheloST 25 7.3 8.5 36.1 5 8074 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.26 3.28 12.40

Technical Standards

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

100

Traffic (ADT)

Net

Pre

sen

t V

alu

e at

12%

400300200

What is the optimal traffic threshold for paving?

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

30

0

10

00

30

00

60

00

10

00

0

Av

era

ge A

gen

cy

Co

sts

($/k

m/y

r)

Non-vehicle-related Vehicle-related Loading-related

Vehicle Policies

How much road damage is caused by trucks?