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HDPE - IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

AUGUST 2013

INDEX

Particulars Page No. Particulars Page No.

INTRODUCTION 01 FEEDSTOCK PRICE MOVEMENT 08

IMPORT SNAPSHOT HDPE OFFERS TO INDIA 08

HDPE INDIA IMPORT SNAPSHOT 01

IMPORT DATA AVERAGE IN 2013 01 IMPORTANT GLOBAL PLANT NEWS 09

COUNTRY-WISE INDIA HDPE IMPORTS (BY VOLUME) 02

COUNTRY-WISE INDIA HDPE IMPORTS (BY VALUE) 02 DEMAND SUPPLY & NET AVAILABILITY SNAPSHOT

INDIA HDPE DEMAND SUPPLY 09

HDPE INDIA PRICING INDIA ALL PE DEMAND SUPPLY 10

HDPE GRADES AVERAGE MONTHLY PRICING 03 INDIA POLYMER DEMAND SUPPLY 10

HDPE FILM MONTHLY PRICES (MAX/MIN) 03 INDIA ETHYLENE NET AVAILABILITY 10

M-O-M AVERAGE PRICES % CHANGE 04

MAJOR PRODUCTS PRICE TRENDS 04 HDPE INDIA IMPORT DUTY 11

HDPE FILM 1 YEAR PRICE MOVEMENT 05

HDPE FILM 3 YEAR PRICE MOVEMENT 05 GOI 5 YEAR PLAN CAGR FIGURES 11

MAJOR HDPE PRODUCERS CAPACITY PROJECTION CRUDE PRICE MOVEMENT & INR V/S USD 12

HDPE CAPACITY PROJECTION OF MAJOR PRODUCERS IN INDIA 06

ETHYLENE CAPACITY PROJECTION OF MAJOR PRODUCERS IN INDIA 06 INDIA ECONOMIC NEWS 13

PORT PERFORMANCE 07 DISCLAIMER 14

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POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

C D: 344, A . E, . . , (), 400018, DA E: @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 2

Exhibit:Country-wise India HDPE imports (by Volume)

Source: GoI August 2013 Import Data

The table lists out the countries from which HDPE was

imported into India, along-with its volume, in the

month of August 2013.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE occupied the top three

positions.

Exhibit:Country-wise India HDPE imports (by Value)

Source: GoI August 2013 Import Data

The table lists out the countries from which HDPE was

imported into India, along-with its monetary value, in the

month of August 2013.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE occupied the top threepositions.

C

()

% DE

A C

()

%

DE A

AD AABA 10074 40.22% AAA 123 0.49%

AA 6144 24.53% A 104 0.42%

AE 2912 11.62% A 88 0.35%

A 2408 9.61% 55 0.22%

A 1003 4.00% CA 42 0.17%

AA 586 2.34% CAAA 41 0.16%

A 347 1.38% BA 40 0.16%

AA 307 1.23% A 18 0.07%

A 299 1.19% A 14 0.06%

A 157 0.63% AC 4 0.02%

B 149 0.59% AA 0.1 0.0002%

A 136 0.54%

C

(. )

%

DE A

C

(. )

%

DE A

AD AABA 90.22 38.89% A 1.21 0.52%

AA 56.03 24.15% AAA 1.17 0.50%

AE 28.88 12.45% A 0.87 0.38%A 21.68 9.34% 0.68 0.29%

A 9.08 3.91% CA 0.54 0.23%

AA 5.50 2.37% CAAA 0.46 0.20%

AA 3.85 1.66% BA 0.44 0.19%

A 3.30 1.42% A 0.33 0.14%

A 2.90 1.25% A 0.09 0.04%

A 1.87 0.81% AC 0.06 0.02%

B 1.81 0.78% AA 0.001 0.0003%

A 1.32 0.57%

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C D: 344, A . E, . . , (), 400018, DA E: @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 3

HDPE India Pricing

Exhibit:HDPE Grades Average Monthly Pricing

DE B

A'13 A 95.96 96.82 99.97 100.48 101.94

'13 A 95.46 96.32 99.47 99.98 101.44

'13 A 90.71 91.51 94.61 94.99 96.61

'13 A 85.99 86.79 89.89 89.97 91.39

A'13 A 85.80 86.60 89.70 90.05 91.20

'13 A 87.80 88.60 91.70 92.27 93.20'13 A 87.96 88.76 91.86 92.43 93.36

'13 A 85.64 86.44 89.54 90.11 92.80

3 A 94.04 94.88 98.02 98.48 100.00

6 A 90.29 91.11 94.22 94.62 95.96

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic)

The table lists out the average monthly prices observed for the respective HDPE grades for 2013. Three month average (Jun13 Aug13) and six month

average (Mar13 - Aug13) are also provided. The month of August saw a minor increase in prices.

Exhibit:HDPE Film Monthly Prices (Max/Min)


The table lists out the maximum and minimum prices that were observed for HDPE Film in

2013. The overall maximum and minimum prices for the year 2013 are also provided. HDPE

Film prices remained constant at Rs. 95.96 in the month of August.

DE

A'13

'13 94.46 95.96'13 89.46 91.46

'13 84.96 86.96

A'13 84.96 86.46

'13 86.46 88.96

'13

'13 83.96 86.96

2013 83.96 95.96

87.96

95.96

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C D: 344, A . E, . . , (), 400018, DA E: @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 4

Exhibit:M-o-M Average Prices % Change

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives Reliance Ex-

Hazira Rs/Kg Basic)

The table lists out the M-o-M changes for the respective HDPE grades considering average monthly prices. The month of August saw a minor jump in

prices considering monthly averages.

Exhibit:Major Products Price Trends

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives [HDPE

(Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), LDPE (Reliance

Ex-Mumbai Panvel Depot Rs/Kg Inclusive of excise

duty), LLDPE (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic),

PVC (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PP (Reliance

Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PS (Ex-Works Rs/Kg

Basic), PET (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), EVA(Reliance Ex-Works Rs/Kg Basic)]

The table has been formulated by comparing the average price for the particular month as compared to the average price of the preceding month. If the

value is Up, the average price for the particular month was observed to be higher as compared to the average price for the preceding month. If the

value is Down, the average price for the particular month was observed to be lower as compared to the average price of the preceding month. If the

value is No Change, the average prices of the particular month and the preceding month were observed to be the same. We have considered the India

price movements of the following grades: HDPE Film, Blow Moulding, Injection, Pipe, Raffia; LDPE General, Heavy Duty, Injection, Lamination, Milk

Pouch; LLDPE Extrusion Coating, Film, Injection, Rotomoulding; PP Block Copolymer, BOPP Homopolymer, Injection, Raffia, Random Copolymer, TQFilm; PVC - Suspension; PET Bottle; PS GPPS, HIPS; EVA.

DE B

A'13 0.52% 0.52% 0.50% 0.50% 0.49%

'13 5.24% 5.26% 5.14% 5.25% 5.00%

'13 5.49% 5.44% 5.25% 5.58% 5.71%

'13 0.22% 0.22% 0.21% 0.09% 0.21%

A'13 2.28% 2.26% 2.18% 2.41% 2.15%

'13 0.18% 0.18% 0.17% 0.17% 0.17%

'13 2.71% 2.68% 2.59% 2.57% 0.60%

'13 3.32% 3.26% 3.13% 3.11% 2.75%

'13 '13 '13 A'13 '13 '13 '13 A'13

C

C C

C

C A

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C D: 344, A . E, . . , (), 400018, DA E: @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 5

Exhibit:HDPE Film 1 Year Price Movement


The chart shows the price movement for HDPE Film over a one year time

frame.

HDPE Film Price in beginning of Aug 2012 = Rs. 82.46 per Kg

HDPE Film Price in the end of Aug 2013 = Rs. 95.96 per Kg

% Price change in 1 year = 16.37%

Exhibit:HDPE Film 3 Year Price Movement


The above chart shows the price movement for HDPE Film over a three

year time frame.

HDPE Film Price in beginning of Aug 2010 = Rs. 59.51 per Kg

HDPE Film Price in the end of Aug 2013 = Rs. 95.96 per Kg

% Price change in 3 years = 61.25%

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C D: 344, A . E, . . , (), 400018, DA E: @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 6

Major Producers Capacity Projection

Exhibit: HDPE Capacity Projections of the major producers in India

DE C () 201314 201415 201516 201617

490 490 490 490

A 700 700 700 700

550 550 550 550

C 475 475 475 475

A 720 720 720

BC 155 155 155 155 Source: Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturer's Association of India (RIL- Reliance Industries Limited; GAIL- Gas Authority of India Limited; HPL-

Haldia Petrochemicals Limited; IOCL- Indian Oil Corporation Limited; OPAL- ONGC Petro Additions Limited; BPCL- Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited)

Exhibit: Ethylene Capacity Projections of the major producers in India

Source: Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturer's Association of India (RIL- Reliance Industries Limited; GAIL- Gas Authority of India Limited; HPL-

Haldia Petrochemicals Limited; IOCL- Indian Oil Corporation Limited; OPAL- ONGC Petro Additions Limited; BPCL-Assam GC - Bharat Petroleum

Corporation Limited Assam Gas Cracker)

E C () 201314 201415 201516 201617 1840 1840 3240 3240

A 1000 1000 1000 1000

670 670 670 670

C 857 857 857 857

BC A C 220 220 220 220

A 0 1100 1100 1100

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C D: 344, A . E, . . , (), 400018, DA E: @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 7

Port Performance

Exhibit:HDPE Import volume at Indian ports and its monetary value

()

% DE

DE

(.

C)

12428 49.61% 114.07

CA 2565 10.24% 23.46

C 2198 8.776% 20.12

A 1865 7.45% 18.46CC 1459 5.82% 13.23

AA 394 1.57% 3.74

A 168 0.67% 1.54

AA 83 0.33% 0.81

AA 72 0.29% 0.56

AEDABAD CD D 1089 4.35% 9.91

AABA C 834 3.330% 8.18

ABA C 584 2.33% 5.13

C C 471 1.880% 4.25

A C 291 1.162% 2.73

AAA A C 251 1.00% 3.05

BAA C 103 0.41% 0.93

A C 100 0.40% 0.98

AA C 32 0.13% 0.30

A C 18 0.07% 0.18A C 15 0.06% 0.18

AAA C 3 0.01% 0.06

A C 2 0.01% 0.02

BA A A 25 0.10% 0.35

JNPT handled the maximum HDPE imports among the seaports while Ahmedabad ICD handled the maximum HDPE imports among the dryports.

Source: GoI 2013 August Import Data

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C D: 344, A . E, . . , (), 400018, DA E: @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 8

Feedstock Price Movement

Exhibit:Ethylene August India Price Movement

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (India CFR USD/MT)

Ethylene price in beginning of Aug 2013 = 1220 USD per MT

Ethylene price in the end of Aug 2013 = 1360 USD per MT

% price change in Aug 2013 = 11.48%

HDPE Offers to India

Exhibit: Some of the HDPE Offers made to India in the month of August

B

C

C

E

D

C 14901500 13 26A13

C 1460 13 27A13

C 1470 A 13 28A13

C 1470 13 28A13

C 1480 13 28A13 Source: PolymerUpdate Market Intelligence

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C D: 344, A . E, . . , (), 400018, DA E: @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 9

Important Global News

PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) has resumed operations at a high density polyethylene (HDPE) plant. A Polymerupdate source in Thailand informed

that the plant restarted operations on August 26, 2013. It was shut in the third week of August for a maintenance turnaround. Located in Map TaPhut, Thailand, the plant has a production capacity of 250,000 mt/year.

Daqing Petrochemical is in plans to start production at new PE lines. A Polymerupdate source in China informed that the company intends to start up

two new polyethylene (PE) lines, a 250,000 mt/year low linear density polyethylene (LLDPE) line and a 300,000 mt/year high density polyethylene(HDPE) line. All the lines are likely to be started in late August or early September 2013.

Yangzi Petrochemical has shut its high density polyethylene (HDPE) plant for maintenance turnaround. A Polymerupdate source in China informedthat the plant was shut on August 27, 2013. The plant is likely to remain off-stream for around one month. Located in Nanjing, Jiangsu province,

China, the plant has a production capacity of 100,000 mt/year.

Wuhan Petrochemical has shut its high density polyethylene (HDPE) unit for maintenance turnaround. A Polymerupdate source in China informed

that the plant was shut on August 30, 2013. The duration of the closure could not be ascertained. Located in Hubei province, China, the plant has aproduction capacity of 300,000 mt/year.

Source: PolymerUpdate Market Intelligence

Demand Supply Snapshot

Exhibit:India HDPE Demand Supply

Source: Asia Petrochemical Industry

Conference 2013 India Country Report

(A:Actual, E:Estimate)

The table provides the India HDPE Demand Supply Snapshot. HDPE registered a 9% growth in 2012; this is likely to increase to 12% and 14% in 2013

and 2014 respectively.

DE () 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 2014

C 1513 1740 1740 1740 1900

/ C 847 1007 1007 1007 1175

C 2360 2747 2747 2747 3075 1108 1462 1414 1464 1588

449 332 449 536 646

88 242 171 100 61

A 1469 1552 1692 1901 2173

(%) 9.50% 5.70% 9.00% 12% 14%

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C D: 344, A . E, . . , (), 400018, DA E: @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 10

Exhibit:India All PE Demand Supply




The table lists out the PE Demand Snapshot for India. As we can see, PE recorded a growth of 12% in 2012 and likely to maintain the momentum in 2013

and 2014.

Exhibit:India Polymer Demand Supply




The table lists out the India Polymer

Demand Supply scenario. Operating rate

is expected to increase from 83% in 2012

to 86% in 2013 and expected to touch

90% in 2014.

Exhibit:India Ethylene Net Availability




All ethylene produced in India is used for

local consumption and is not exported.

A E () 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 2014

C 2578 2965 2965 2965 3293 1992 2399 2332 2548 2746

1087 972 1323 1455 1707

95 265 176 121 86

A 2984 3106 3479 3881 4366

(%) 9.40% 4.10% 12% 12% 12%

() 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 2014

C 7905 8467 8907 9447 9875

6358 7102 7434 8116 8867

80% 84% 83% 86% 90% 2104 2099 2552 2793 3136

792 1089 1027 996 965

1313 1010 1525 1797 2171

A 7670 8113 8959 9913 11037

% 12% 5.80% 10% 11% 11%

E () 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 2014

C 3826 4080 4080 4080 5180

2827 3355 3744 3735 4421

109 36 23 50 25

0 0 0 0 0

A 2936 3391 3767 3785 4446

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C D: 344, A . E, . . , (), 400018, DA E: @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 11

HDPE India Import Duty

Exhibit:HDPE Import Duty applicable in India

Source: GoI

GoI 5 Year Plan CAGR Figures

Exhibit:GoI 11th/12th/13th 5 Year Plans CAGR Figures

Source: GoI 12th 5 Year Plan on Petrochemicals

The table gives the Actual CAGR achieved in the 11th 5 Year Plan (2005/06 2011/12) and the projected CAGR for the 12th 5 year Plan (2011/12 2016/17) and 13th 5 year Plan (2016/17 2021/22) for HDPE and Ethylene. As per government projections, HDPE is likely to enjoy above GDP growth

rates in the 12th and 13th 5 Year plan periods.

C

%

C

(C) %

C C %

A

%

%

7.5 12 3 4 25.852

DE

13 5

2016/17 2021/22

C C

9.20% 10.90% 11.10% 9.20% 9.00%

9.00% 7.00% 12.90% 12.40% 0.80%

CA

11 5

2005/06 2011/12 2011/12 2016/17

12 5

A CA

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C D: 344, A . E, . . , (), 400018, DA E: @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 12

Crude Price Movement V/s INR performance against the USD

Source: PolymerUpdate Market Intelligence, RBI currency reference rates

The graph shows the movement of Dated Brent, Nymex crude and the INR performance against the USD. The Y-axis on the left is USD/barrel rate while

the Y-axis on the right represents the conversion rate.

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C D: 344, A . E, . . , (), 400018, DA E: @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 13

India Economic News

HSBC India Purchasing Managers Index

India services PMI contracts further in August

Indian services activity shrank in August at its quickest pace since the depths of the global financial crisis as new business dried up, a survey showed, thelatest evidence that Asias third-largest economy is rapidly losing steam even as policymakers battle a full-blown currency crisis.

The HSBC Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) compiled by Markit, slipped to 47.6 in August, the weakest since April 2009, from 47.9 in July.A number below 50 denotes contraction.

India manufacturing PMI shrinks to 48.5 in August

Indian factory activity shrank for the first time in more than four years last month, adding to the countrys deepening economic malaise even as thecentral bank struggles to defend the battered rupee currency, a survey showed.

The HSBC Manufacturing PMI, compiled by Markit, sank to 48.5 in August from 50.1 in July, the lowest reading since March 2009.

The index, which gauges business activity in Indian factories but not utilities, had been close to the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction sinceMay but falling orders dragged it under last month.

India Credit Rating

A

& BBB

&

' B3

'

BBB

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C D: 344, A . E, . . , (), 400018, DA E: @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 14

India GDP Growth Projection

Exhibit: India GDP Growth Projection 2013-14

Data collected from various sources

We will be happy to receive any feedback/suggestions on this analysis.

Also, if there are any queries, then please do not hesitate to get in touch with us at [email protected].

Disclaimer: This analysis makes use of Import data procured from the Indian Customs and is being made available on an as is basis. We have

attempted to refine the raw database by removing records with sweep/reprocessed/off-grade material shipments and records with non-standard units. We

have undertaken our best efforts in refining the database while formulating our statistics; however, customs data is known to include repetitions which aredifficult to verify independently and may have inadvertently got included in this analysis. The figures have been rounded off during some calculations;

hence the totals and subtotals may not match exactly. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy,

completeness or correctness of the information/opinions contained herein. It is advisable that all figures be considered as approximate.

A D

B 2013 5.5%

2013 5.6%

B 2013 5.7%

AB 2013 5.8%

C 2013 5.5%

BC A 2013 4.0%

B A 2013 3.7%

A 2013 4.2%

2013 4.1%

CA 2013 4.2%

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