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    HDPE - IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    JUNE 2014

    INDEX

    Particulars Page No. Particulars Page No.

    JUNE REPORT MAIN POINTERS 01 HDPE OFFERS 15

    IMPORT SNAPSHOT CAPACITY PROJECTIONS & DEMAND SUPPLY SCENARIO

    HDPE INDIA IMPORT SNAPSHOT 02 HDPE CAPACITY PROJECTIONS OF MAJOR PRODUCERS 16

    HD/LD/LLD % SHARE IN INDIA PE IMPORTS 03 ETHYLENE CAPACITY PROJECTIONS OF MAJOR PRODUCERS 16

    HDPE MONTHLY IMPORTS REGION-WISE BREAKDOWN 03 INDIA HDPE DEMAND SUPPLY 17

    INDIA HDPE IMPORTS COUNTRY-WISE BREAKDOWN 04 INDIA ALL PE DEMAND SUPPLY 17

    INDIA HDPE DESTINATION PORT-WISE BREAKDOWN 05 INDIA POLYMER DEMAND SUPPLY 18

    SOURCE COUNTRY DESTINATION PORT MATRIX JUNE 2014 06 INDIA ETHYLENE NET AVAILABILITY 18

    PRODUCT PRICING GOI 5 YEAR PLAN CAGR FIGURES 19

    HDPE GRADES AVERAGE MONTHLY PRICING 08

    HDPE FILM MONTHLY PRICES (MAX/MIN) 09 INDIA IMPORT DUTY STRUCTURE 20

    M-o-M AVERAGE PRICES % CHANGE 10

    HDPE FILM 1 YEAR PRICE MOVEMENT 11 CRUDE PRICE MOVEMENT & INR V/S USD 21

    HDPE FILM 3 YEAR PRICE MOVEMENT 11

    ETHYLENE INDIA PRICE MOVEMENT 12 INDIA GDP GROWTH PROJECTIONS 2014-15 22

    MAJOR PRODUCTS PRICE TRENDS 13

    DISCLAIMER 23

    IMPORTANT GLOBAL NEWS 14

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    POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 1

    High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE)

    June Report Main Pointers

    HDPE import volume increased in the month of JuneHDPE grades witnessed no price change except for the Pipe grade which saw a fall of 0.88% in monthly average prices

    HDPE accounted for 33.50% of all PE that was imported into India

    89.47% of the HDPE that was imported into India in June was sourced from the Middle East region

    Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Singapore and Kuwait were the largest exporters of HDPE to India.JNPT, Chennai, Mundra, Tuticorin and Cochin seaports were the largest HDPE import volume handling ports

    HDPE was sourced from a total of 18 countries with 26 ports in India being the destination points

    Ethylene prices witnessed a net downside in the month of June

    Nymex crude and Dated Brent prices saw a net upside

    INR witnessed a net depreciation against the USD

    Central Board of Excise & Customs notifications on import/export USD exchange rates are as follows:

    Dated June 5th2014: 59.85/USD (for imports) & 58.85/USD (for exports)

    Dated June 19th2014: 60.45/USD (for imports) & 59.45/USD (for exports)

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    POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 2

    Introduction

    HDPE is sometimes also referred to as polyethylene high-density (PEHD) and sees high import volume into India given its various applications. It takes1.75 kilograms of petroleum (in terms of energy and raw materials) to make one kilogram of HDPE. Known for its large strength to density ratio, HDPE

    finds applications in Raffia, Blow Moulding, Film, Pipes and Injection Moulding. HDPE is highly preferred as a sheathing material where it provides high

    resistance to water penetration. It is very hard, has low coefficient of friction, and is abrasion resistant. Hence, it is used in products and packaging such

    as milk jugs, detergent bottles, margarine tubs, garbage containers and water pipes.

    HDPE is principally used for the manufacture of high-performance pipe, blow-molded household and industrial bottles, oil bottles, injection-molded food

    containers, consumer durables and disposable goods and film goods such as grocery sacks and merchandise bags.

    Import Snapshot

    Exhibit:HDPE India Import Snapshot

    D () C ( C) C

    13 34253 8.20% 270 6.90%

    13 28109 17.94% 227 15.93%

    13 31391 11.68% 263 15.86%A13 29322 6.59% 249 5.32%

    13 31949 8.96% 266 6.83%

    13 33839 5.92% 285 7.14%

    13 29801 11.93% 266 6.67%

    A13 25050 15.94% 232 12.78%

    13 24385 2.65% 244 5.17%

    13 27253 11.76% 264 8.20%

    13 24461 10.24% 240 9.09%

    13 29833 21.96% 287 19.58%

    14 30086 0.85% 293 2.09%

    14 38919 29.36% 382 30.38%

    14 35708 8.25% 351 8.12%

    A14 36366 1.84% 352 0.28%

    14 37020 1.80% 360 2.27%

    14 37332 0.84% 360 0.00%

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    POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 3

    Source: GoI Import Data

    The table gives a snapshot on HDPE India imports in terms of volume imported and monetary value of the imports. The month of June saw HDPE import

    level at 37332 MTS which represents a rise of 0.84% M-o-M. The monetary value of HDPE imports in June stood at Rs. 360 crores which is the same asthe preceding month.

    Exhibit: HD/LD/LLD % share in India PE imports

    Source: GoI Import Data

    The chart shows the monthly HD/LD/LLD percentage share in total PE

    imported into India.

    Exhibit: HDPE monthly imports region-wise breakdown

    Source: GoI Import Data

    The above table lists the region-

    wise breakdown of imported

    HDPE. The bulk of HDPE imported

    by India is sourced from the

    Middle East region.

    D 14 14 14 A14 14 14

    AAC 6.06% 6.72% 9.64% 7.00% 11.39% 7.20%

    1.49% 1.31% 0.99% 1.08% 1.44% 0.99%

    A 91.08% 90.59% 87.81% 89.69% 85.83% 89.47%

    ACA 1.29% 1.32% 1.49% 1.83% 1.27% 2.27%

    ACA 0.08% 0.06% 0.07% 0.39% 0.06% 0.07%

    100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

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    POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 4

    Exhibit: India HDPE Imports country-wise breakdown

    Source: GoI Import Data

    The table lists out the countries from which HDPE was imported into India in 2014.

    Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Singapore and Kuwait were the largest exporters of HDPE to India.

    D () 14 14 14 A14 14 14

    AA 11

    B 25 124 97

    BA 25 25 25 143 23 25

    CAAA 23 23 138 70 47

    CA 31 5 158 132 94 45

    A 2 25

    AC 15 58 61 61 25

    A 335 279 241 221 129 157 23 105

    A 88 35 210 67 1

    A 644 2178 297 198 443

    AA 366 388 423 391 383 277

    A 552 693 637 641 455 426

    A 1958 1715 1589 1774 1931 3059

    AAA 102 136 260 34 188

    A 11

    AA 9695 9590 10393 10281 9727 7523

    A AABA 13180 17976 15702 15583 15144 17776

    A 438 596 882 574 2797 899

    A 50 50 53

    50 99 88 88 167 91

    AA 46 51 272 17

    AA 198 822 726 427 388 853

    A 1926 3799 3372 4979 4774 4599

    A 364 490 395 596 425 848

    30086 38919 35708 36366 37020 37332

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    POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 5

    Exhibit: India HDPE Destination Port-wise breakdown

    Source: GoI Import Data

    The table lists out the ports that handled the imported

    HDPE in June 2014.

    JNPT, Chennai, Mundra, Tuticorin and Cochin seaports

    were the largest HDPE import volume handling ports in

    India.

    D () 14 14 14 A14 14 14

    AABA 965 1387 634 607 931 418BAABA 61 82 17 13

    BAA 56 211 160 144

    BAA AA 90 198 256 272

    BAA 1386 1139 891 1881 1485 198

    CA A 3

    CA 1575 3191 1803 2507 3016 2768

    CC 834 833 1701 1422 1212 1424

    A ABA 67 151 84 67 84

    A C 67 84 A 12

    A 116 224 346 373 324 248

    AAA A 362 344 315 261 330 277

    ABA A 1

    ABA 492 988 662 980 708 457

    19035 23181 20454 18387 20652 21850

    CC 141

    AA 124 124

    A 15 15AA A 4

    AA 270 786 1481 749 1020 1272

    AA 48 64 64

    AA 190 197 404 396 198 411

    BA A 2 6

    A 305 843 1578 2212 2438 1485

    A 10 5 5 10

    A 9 14 5 9

    A 43 59AAA 2 2 4 10 3

    A 248 215 198 1138

    A 52 59 18 18 7

    AA 208 192

    A 36 74

    AABA 945 1190 1831 1843 1282 1246

    C 229 936 513 245 226 324

    C 2449 2756 2035 3020 1883 3077

    A 213 319 298 341 372 379

    A 32 32 64 80 40

    30086 38919 35708 36366 37020 37332

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    POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 6

    Exhibit: Source Country Destination Port Matrix June 2014

    C ()

    D

    A

    B 97

    BA ABA 25

    BAA 20

    25

    AC 25

    AAA A 50

    80

    AA 23

    BA 6

    A ABA 1

    A 443

    BAA 30

    CA 15

    AAA A 194

    35

    AAA 3

    CA 272

    CC 322

    1425

    A 99

    C 594A 347

    CA

    A

    AA

    A

    C ()

    D

    A

    153

    C 35

    AABA 192

    CA 832

    CC 527

    4733

    AA 352

    A 544

    AABA 240

    C 32

    A 32

    A 40

    CA 25

    874

    25

    AABA 66

    CA 37

    AAA A 16

    747

    AA 54

    A 426

    AA

    AAA

    AA

    A

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    POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 7

    Exhibit: Source Country Destination Port Matrix June 2014

    Source: GoI Import Data

    The tables above represent the source country and destination port matrix which lists out the ports which have received the HDPE imports from the

    source countries for the month of June 2014. The type of port and the volume involved are also provided.

    C () D A

    AABA 226

    BAA 74

    BAA 198

    CA 1545

    CC 543

    A ABA 84

    ABA 432

    9950

    AA 744

    AA 114

    A 74

    A 248

    AABA 805

    C 324C 2416

    BAA 20

    AAA A 18

    780

    A 10

    AABA 20

    A

    A AABA

    C ()

    D

    A

    CA 41

    CC 33

    A 248

    2033

    AA 99

    AA 297

    A 767

    A 9

    A 59

    A 891

    A 7

    AABA 116

    A

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    POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 8

    HDPE India Pricing

    Exhibit:HDPE Grades Average Monthly Pricing

    Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic)

    The table lists out the average prices observed for the respective HDPE grades. Three month and six month averages are also provided. HDPE grades

    witnessed no change in prices in the month of June except for the Pipe grade.

    D B

    14 106.96 109.29 109.83 112.43 108.34

    14 106.96 109.29 109.83 113.43 108.34

    A14 106.96 109.29 109.83 113.43 108.34

    14 107.92 109.65 110.79 113.79 113.30

    14 107.96 109.29 110.83 113.43 113.3414 105.54 106.87 108.41 111.51 111.42

    13 102.80 103.63 105.67 108.27 108.68

    13 101.71 102.54 104.58 107.18 107.59

    13 101.46 102.29 104.33 106.93 107.34

    13 104.56 105.39 107.43 109.03 110.44

    A13 95.96 96.82 99.97 100.48 101.94

    13 95.46 96.32 99.47 99.98 101.44

    13 90.71 91.51 94.61 94.99 96.61

    13 85.99 86.79 89.89 89.97 91.39

    A13 85.80 86.60 89.70 90.05 91.20

    13 87.80 88.60 91.70 92.27 93.20

    13 87.96 88.76 91.86 92.43 93.36

    13 85.64 86.44 89.54 90.11 92.80

    3 A 106.96 109.29 109.83 113.10 108.34

    6 A 107.05 108.95 109.92 113.00 110.51

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    POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 9

    Exhibit:HDPE Film Monthly Prices (Max/Min)

    Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic)

    The table lists out the maximum and minimum prices that were observed for HDPE Film. HDPE Film prices registered a price of Rs. 106.96 per Kg in the

    month of June.

    D

    14

    14

    A14

    14 106.96 107.96

    14

    14 104.46 105.9613 102.46 103.46

    13 100.96 102.46

    13 100.96 101.96

    13 103.96 104.96

    A13

    13 94.46 95.96

    13 89.46 91.46

    13 84.96 86.96

    A13 84.96 86.46

    13 86.46 88.96

    13

    13 83.96 86.96

    106.96

    106.96

    87.96

    95.96

    107.96

    106.96

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    POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 10

    Exhibit:M-o-M Average Prices % Change

    Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic)

    The table lists out the M-o-M changes for the respective HDPE grades considering average monthly prices.

    D B

    14 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88% 0.00%

    14 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

    A14 0.89% 0.33% 0.87% 0.32% 4.38%

    14 0.04% 0.33% 0.04% 0.32% 0.04%

    14 2.29% 2.26% 2.23% 1.72% 1.72%

    14 2.67% 3.13% 2.59% 2.99% 2.52%

    13 1.07% 1.06% 1.04% 1.02% 1.01%

    13 0.25% 0.24% 0.24% 0.23% 0.23%

    13 2.96% 2.94% 2.89% 1.93% 2.81%

    13 8.96% 8.85% 7.46% 8.51% 8.34%

    A13 0.52% 0.52% 0.50% 0.50% 0.49%

    13 5.24% 5.26% 5.14% 5.25% 5.00%

    13 5.49% 5.44% 5.25% 5.58% 5.71%

    13 0.22% 0.22% 0.21% 0.09% 0.21%A13 2.28% 2.26% 2.18% 2.41% 2.15%

    13 0.18% 0.18% 0.17% 0.17% 0.17%

    13 2.71% 2.68% 2.59% 2.57% 0.60%

    13 3.32% 3.26% 3.13% 3.11% 2.75%

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    POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 11

    Exhibit:HDPE Film 1 Year Price Movement

    Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg

    Basic)

    The chart shows the price movement for HDPE Film over a one year

    time frame.

    HDPE Film Price in the beginning of June 2013 = Rs. 84.96 per Kg

    HDPE Film Price at the end of June 2014 = Rs. 106.96 per Kg

    % Price change in 1 year = 25.89%

    Exhibit:HDPE Film 3 Year Price Movement

    Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg

    Basic)

    The above chart shows the price movement for HDPE Film over a

    three year time frame.

    HDPE Film Price in the beginning of June 2011 = Rs. 69.01 per Kg

    HDPE Film Price at the end of June 2014 = Rs. 106.96 per Kg

    % Price change in 3 years = 54.99%

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    POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 12

    Exhibit:Ethylene India Price Movement

    Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (India CFR USD/MT)

    Ethylene price in the beginning of June 2014 = 1455 USD per MT

    Ethylene price at the end of June 2014 = 1450 USD per MT

    % price change in June 2014 = -0.34%

    Ethylene prices witnessed a net downside in the month of June.

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    POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 13

    Exhibit:Major Products Price Trends

    Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives [HDPE (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), LDPE (Reliance Ex-Mumbai Panvel Depot Rs/Kg Inclusive of excise duty),

    LLDPE (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PVC (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PP (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PS (Ex-Works Rs/Kg Basic), PET(Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), EVA (Reliance Ex-Works Rs/Kg Basic)]

    The table has been formulated by comparing the average price for the particular month as compared to the average price of the preceding month. If the

    value is Up, the average price for the particular month was observed to be higher as compared to the average price for the preceding month. If the

    value is Down, the average price for the particular month was observed to be lower as compared to the average price of the preceding month. If the

    value is No Change, the average prices of the particular month and the preceding month were observed to be the same. We have considered the India

    price movements of the following grades: HDPE Film, Blow Moulding, Injection, Pipe, Raffia; LDPE General, Heavy Duty, Injection, Lamination, Milk

    Pouch; LLDPE Extrusion Coating, Film, Injection, Rotomoulding; PP Block Copolymer, BOPP Homopolymer, Injection, Raffia, Random Copolymer, TQFilm; PVC - Suspension; PET Bottle; PS GPPS, HIPS; EVA.

    C A

    13 13

    13

    A13 C

    13 C

    13

    13

    A13 C C

    13

    13

    13

    13 C C

    14 C

    14

    14 C C

    A14 C

    14 C C C

    14 C

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    POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 14

    Important Global News

    Shenhua Baotou Coal Chemical is likely to shut a linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE)/ high density polyethylene (HDPE) swing plant. APolymerupdate source in China informed that the plant is likely to be shut in July 2014 for maintenance turnaround. It is expected to remain shut

    for around one month. Located in Shenhua, China, the plant has a production capacity of 300,000 mt/year

    Petronas has restarted a high density polyethylene (HDPE) plant following maintenance turnaround. A Polymerupdate source in Malaysia informedthat the plant restarted in the last week of May. It was shut for a maintenance turnaround in early April 2014. Located at Kertih, Malaysia, theplant has a production capacity of 250,000 mt/year

    Hungarian petrochemical major TVK has restarted a polyolefins complex following maintenance turnaround. A Polymerupdate source in Hungaryinformed that a 370,000 mt/year ethylene cracker at the complex restarted in early June 2014, following a maintenance turnaround of two weeks.A 180,000 mt/year polypropylene (PP) plant at the same site restarted on May 24 following a turnaround of two weeks and a high densitypolyethylene (HDPE) plant at the site resumed production on June 3 after a maintenance shutdown of around 3 weeks. The complex is located atTiszaujvaros in Hungary

    PTT Global Chemical is in plans to shut its high density polyethylene (HDPE) plant for maintenance turnaround. A Polymerupdate source inThailand informed that the plant is likely to be shut in mid-June 2014. It is likely to remain off-stream for around two weeks. Located at Map TaPhut, Thailand, the plant has a production capacity of 300,000 mt/year

    Shanghai Petrochemical has shut a high density polyethylene (HDPE) plant. A Polymerupdate source in China informed that the plant was shut onJune 17, 2014. The shutdown has been attributed to an accident at the plant. A restart date for the plant could not be ascertained. Located inShanghai, China, the plant has a production capacity of 250,000 mt/year

    Source: PolymerUpdate Market Intelligence

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    POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 15

    HDPE Offers

    The above table lists the HDPE offers along with other details that were captured by our team.

    Source: PolymerUpdate Market Intelligence

    B

    C

    C D

    C 1580 14 314

    C 1620 A 14 314

    C 1610 A 14 1714

    C 1660 14 2314

    C 1610 A 2014 2514

    C 16201630 A / A 2014 3014 C 16401650 A / A 2014 3014

    C 16301640 / A 2014 3014

    C 1640 A 14 3014

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    POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 16

    Capacity Projections & Demand Supply Scenario

    Exhibit: HDPE Capacity Projections of the major producers in India

    Source: Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturer's Association of India (RIL- Reliance Industries Limited; GAIL- Gas Authority of India Limited; HPL-

    Haldia Petrochemicals Limited; IOCL- Indian Oil Corporation Limited; OPAL- ONGC Petro Additions Limited; BPCL- Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited)

    Exhibit: Ethylene Capacity Projections of the major producers in India

    Source: Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturer's Association of India (RIL- Reliance Industries Limited; GAIL- Gas Authority of India Limited; HPL-

    Haldia Petrochemicals Limited; IOCL- Indian Oil Corporation Limited; OPAL- ONGC Petro Additions Limited; BPCL-Assam GC - Bharat Petroleum

    Corporation Limited Assam Gas Cracker)

    D C () 201314 201415 201516 201617

    490 490 490 490

    A 700 700 700 700

    550 550 550 550

    C 475 475 475 475

    A 720 720 720

    BC 155 155 155 155

    C () 201314 201415 201516 201617

    1840 1840 3240 3240

    A 1000 1000 1000 1000

    670 670 670 670

    C 857 857 857 857

    BC A C 220 220 220 220A 0 1100 1100 1100

    POLYMERUPDATE

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    POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 17

    Exhibit:India HDPE Demand Supply

    The table provides the India HDPE Demand Supply Snapshot.

    Exhibit:India All PE Demand Supply

    The table lists out the PE Demand Snapshot for India.

    D () 201011 A 201112 A 201213 A 201314 201415 201516 201617

    C 1690 1795 1795 1795 1830 2810 2810

    / C 847 1007 1007 1007 1007 1007 1007

    C 2537 2802 2802 2802 2837 3817 3817

    1216 1503 1501 1486 1621 2521 2606

    330 385 440 410 480 220 230

    55 227 160 115 65 368 500

    A 1491 1661 1781 1781 2036 2373 2336

    % 10.80% 11.40% 7.22% 0.00% 14.32% 16.55% 1.56%

    A () 201011 A 201112 A 201213 A 201314 201415 201516 201617

    C 2826 2965 2980 2980 3065 5115 5565

    2072 2519 2457 2485 2654 4488 4996

    970 1060 1217 1179 1313 790 730

    65 251 170 125 77 588 730

    A 2977 3328 3504 3539 3890 4690 4996

    % 8.40% 11.79% 5.29% 1.00% 9.92% 20.57% 6.52%

    POLYMERUPDATE

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    POLYMERUPDATE HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 18

    Exhibit:India Polymer Demand Supply

    The table lists out the India Polymer Demand Supply scenario.

    Exhibit:India Ethylene Net Availability

    All ethylene produced in India is used for local consumption and is not exported.

    () 201011 A 201112 A 201213 A 201314 201415 201516 201617

    C 3837 3907 3907 4157 5637 7127 7127

    3000 3355 3744 3985 5165 6755 6955

    55 15 23 50 25 25 25

    0 0 0 0 0 0 0

    A 3055 3370 3767 4035 5190 6780 6980

    () 201011 A 201112 A 201213 A 201314 201415 201516 201617

    C 8348 8487 8967 9882 10089 12290 12740 6854 7682 7958 8424 9059 11311 12089

    82% 91% 89% 85% 90% 92% 95%

    2087 2404 2970 2777 2957 2688 2907

    722 1121 1057 1005 1215 1667 1641

    1365 1283 1913 1772 1742 1021 1266

    A 8219 8965 9871 10196 10801 12332 13355

    % 7.40% 9.08% 10.11% 3.29% 5.93% 14.17% 8.30%

    POLYMERUPDATE

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    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 19

    GoI 5 Year Plan CAGR Figures

    Source: GoI 12th 5 Year Plan on Petrochemicals

    The table gives the Actual CAGR achieved in the 11th 5 Year Plan (2005/06 2011/12) and the projected CAGR for the 12th 5 year Plan (2011/12

    2016/17) and 13th 5 year Plan (2016/17 2021/22) for HDPE and Ethylene. As per government projections, HDPE is likely to enjoy above GDP growth

    rates in the 12th and 13th 5 Year plan periods.

    5 D CA

    C C 9.20% 9.00%

    10.90% 7.00%

    C C 11.10% 12.90%

    9.20% 12.40%

    13 5

    (2016/17

    2021/22)

    9.00% 0.80%

    11 5

    (2005/06

    2011/12)

    12 5

    (2011/12

    2016/17)

    A

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    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 20

    India Import Duty Structure

    Source: Government of India

    B D % C

    D (CD) %

    C

    CD %

    A D

    (AD) %

    A D %

    D 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

    D 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

    D 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

    7.5 12 3 4 25.852

    C 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

    7.5 12 3 4 25.852

    7.5 12 3 4 25.852

    C 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

    7.5 12 3 4 25.852

    DA

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    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 21

    Crude Price Movement V/s INR performance against the USD

    Source: PolymerUpdate Market Intelligence, RBI currency reference rates

    The graph shows the movement of Dated Brent, Nymex crude and the INR performance against the USD. The Y-axis on the left is USD/barrel rate while

    the Y-axis on the right represents the conversion rate.

    INR value against the USD in the beginning of June 2014 = 59.13 per USD

    INR value against the USD at the end of June 2014 = 60.19 per USD

    % net value change in June 2014 = 1.79% (depreciation)

    Dated Brent price in the beginning of June 2014 = 108.83 USD per barrel

    Dated Brent price at the end of June 2014 = 112.36 USD per barrel

    % net price change in June 2014 = 3.24%

    Nymex crude price in the beginning of June 2014 = 102.47 USD per barrel

    Nymex crude price at the end of June 2014 = 105.37 USD per barrel

    % net price change in June 2014 = 2.83%

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    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 22

    India GDP Growth Projections 2014-15

    Data collected from various sources

    D

    AB 5.5%

    C 6.0%

    B 5.5%

    5.5%

    5.4%

    B 5.5%

    CC 5.3%

    CA 5.15.5%

    5.45.9%

    ' 5.5%

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    C D: 344, A . , . . , (), 400018, DA : @. : +912261772000 (25 ) : +912261772025 23

    We will be happy to receive any feedback/suggestions on this analysis.

    Also, if there are any queries, then please do not hesitate to get in touch with us at [email protected].

    Note: The Govt. of India has decided as a policy matter to not disclose the names of the importers/exporters on the ground that revealing such

    information would violate commercial confidentiality. These rules are in the nature of subordinate legislation and have the legal force of the Parliament.

    Please refer toNotification No. 128/2004-Customs (N.T) Direct Link: http://www.cbec.gov.in/customs/cs-act/notifications/notfns-2k4/csnt128-2k4.htm

    The content in this report wherever the source is mentioned as the GoI 12th 5 Year Plan on Petrochemicals is owned by the Planning Commission,Government of India and its further distribution is strictly forbidden without permission of the Planning Commission, Government of India.

    Disclaimer: This analysis makes use of Import data procured from the Indian Customs and is being made available on an as is basis. We have

    attempted to refine the raw database by removing records with sweep/reprocessed/off-grade material shipments and records with non-standard units. We

    have undertaken our best efforts in refining the database while formulating our statistics; however, customs data is known to include repetitions which are

    difficult to verify independently and may have inadvertently got included in this analysis. The figures have been rounded off during some calculations;

    hence some totals/subtotals may not match exactly. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness

    or correctness of the information/opinions contained herein. It is advisable that all figures be considered as approximate.

    In no event will Shalimar Infotech be liable for any expense, loss or damage including, without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any

    expense, loss or damage whatsoever arising from use, or loss of use, of data, arising out of or in connection with the use of this report. The content of

    this report cannot be reproduced without obtaining permission from Shalimar Infotech Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved.


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