HDPE Sample Reports

HDPE - IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

FEBRUARY 2016

INDEX

Particulars Page No.

Particulars Page No.

FEBRUARY REPORT MAIN POINTERS 01 HDPE OFFERS 16

IMPORT SNAPSHOT CAPACITY PROJECTIONS & DEMAND SUPPLY SCENARIO

HDPE INDIA IMPORT SNAPSHOT 02 HDPE CAPACITY PROJECTIONS OF MAJOR PRODUCERS 17

HD/LD/LLD % SHARE IN INDIA PE IMPORTS 03 ETHYLENE CAPACITY PROJECTIONS OF MAJOR PRODUCERS 17

HDPE MONTHLY IMPORTS REGION-WISE BREAKDOWN 04 INDIA HDPE DEMAND SUPPLY 18

INDIA HDPE IMPORTS COUNTRY-WISE BREAKDOWN 05 INDIA ALL PE DEMAND SUPPLY 18

INDIA HDPE DESTINATION PORT-WISE BREAKDOWN 06 INDIA POLYMER DEMAND SUPPLY 19

SOURCE COUNTRY – DESTINATION PORT MATRIX – FEBRUARY 2015 07 INDIA ETHYLENE NET AVAILABILITY 19

PRODUCT PRICING GOI 5 YEAR PLAN CAGR FIGURES 20

HDPE GRADES AVERAGE MONTHLY PRICING 09

HDPE FILM MONTHLY PRICES (MAX/MIN) 10 INDIA IMPORT DUTY STRUCTURE 21

M-o-M AVERAGE PRICES % CHANGE 11

HDPE FILM 1 YEAR PRICE MOVEMENT 12 CRUDE PRICE MOVEMENT & INR V/S USD 22

HDPE FILM 3 YEAR PRICE MOVEMENT 13

ETHYLENE INDIA PRICE MOVEMENT 14 INDIA GDP GROWTH PROJECTIONS 2015-16 23

MAJOR PRODUCTS PRICE TRENDS 15

DISCLAIMER 24

Important Global News 16

POLYMERUPDATE HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

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High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE)

February Report Main Pointers

HDPE import volume decreased in the month of February

HDPE grades witnessed a increase in prices considering monthly averages

HDPE accounted for 33.32% of all PE that was imported into India

76.62% of the HDPE that was imported into India was sourced from the Middle East region

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE were the largest exporters of HDPE to India

JNPT, Tuticorin & Chennai among seaports and Hyderabad & Ahmedabad among dryports were the largest HDPE import volume handling ports

HDPE was sourced from a total of 25 countries with 37 ports in India being the destination points

Ethylene prices witnessed a net upside

Nymex crude & Dated Brent prices saw a net upside

INR witnessed a net depreciation against the USD

Introduction

HDPE is sometimes also referred to as polyethylene high-density (PEHD) and sees high import volume into India given its various applications. It takes

1.75 kilograms of petroleum (in terms of energy and raw materials) to make one kilogram of HDPE. Known for its large strength to density ratio, HDPE

finds applications in Raffia, Blow Moulding, Film, Pipes and Injection Moulding. HDPE is highly preferred as a sheathing material where it provides high

resistance to water penetration. It is very hard, has low coefficient of friction, and is abrasion resistant. Hence, it is used in products and packaging such

as milk jugs, detergent bottles, margarine tubs, garbage containers and water pipes.

HDPE is principally used for the manufacture of high-performance pipe, blow-molded household and industrial bottles, oil bottles, injection-molded food

containers, consumer durables and disposable goods and film goods such as grocery sacks and merchandise bags.

mailto:[email protected]



Import Snapshot

Exhibit: HDPE India Import Snapshot

Source: GoI Import Data

The table gives a snapshot on HDPE India imports in terms of volume imported and monetary value of the imports. The month of February saw HDPE

import level at 17964 MTS which represents a drop of 6.49% M-o-M. The monetary value of HDPE imports in February stood at Rs. 365 crores which

represents a 34.80% decrease as compared to the preceding month.




Exhibit: HD/LD/LLD % share in India PE imports


The chart shows the monthly HD/LD/LLD percentage share in total PE imported into India.




Exhibit: HDPE monthly imports region-wise breakdown


The above table lists the region-wise breakdown of imported HDPE. The bulk of HDPE imported by India is sourced from the Middle East region.




Exhibit: India HDPE Imports country-wise breakdown


The table lists out the countries from which HDPE was imported into India.




Exhibit: India HDPE Destination Port-wise breakdown

Source: GoI Import Data, The table lists out the ports that handled the imported HDPE.




Exhibit: Source Country – Destination Port Matrix – February 2016





The tables above represent the source country and destination port matrix which lists out the ports which have received the HDPE imports from the

source countries for the month of February 2016. The type of port and the volume involved are also provided.




HDPE India Pricing

Exhibit: HDPE Grades Average Monthly Pricing

Source: Polymerupdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic)

The table lists out the average prices observed for the respective HDPE grades.




Exhibit: HDPE Film Monthly Prices (Max/Min)


The table lists out the maximum and minimum prices that were observed for HDPE Film.




Exhibit: M-o-M Average Prices % Change


The table lists out the M-o-M changes for the respective HDPE grades considering average monthly prices.




Exhibit: HDPE Film 1 Year Price Movement


The chart shows the price movement for HDPE Film over a one year time frame.

HDPE Film Price in the beginning of February 2015 = Rs. 83.46 per Kg

HDPE Film Price at the end of February 2016 = Rs. 84.96 per Kg

% Price change in 1 year = 1.80%




Exhibit: HDPE Film 3 Year Price Movement


The above chart shows the price movement for HDPE Film over a three year time frame.

HDPE Film Price in the beginning of February 2013 = Rs. 87.96 per Kg

HDPE Film Price at the end of February 2016 = Rs. 84.96 per Kg

% Price change in 3 years = -3.41%




Exhibit: Ethylene India Price Movement

Source: Polymerupdate Price Archives (India CFR USD/MT)

Ethylene price in the beginning of February 2016 = 935 USD per MT

Ethylene price at the end of February 2016 = 1010 USD per MT

% price change in February 2016 = 8.02%

Ethylene prices witnessed a net upside in the month of February.




Exhibit: Major Products Price Trends

Source: Polymerupdate Price Archives [HDPE (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), LDPE (Reliance Ex-Mumbai Panvel Depot Rs/Kg Inclusive of excise duty),

LLDPE (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PVC (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PP (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PS (Ex-Works Rs/Kg Basic), PET

(Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), EVA (Reliance Ex-Works Rs/Kg Basic)]

The table has been formulated by comparing the average price for the particular month as compared to the average price of the preceding month. If the

value is “Up”, the average price for the particular month was observed to be higher as compared to the average price for the preceding month. If the

value is “Down”, the average price for the particular month was observed to be lower as compared to the average price of the preceding month. If the

value is “No Change”, the average prices of the particular month and the preceding month were observed to be the same. We have considered the India

price movements of the following grades: HDPE – Film, Blow Moulding, Injection, Pipe, Raffia; LDPE – General, Heavy Duty, Injection, Lamination, Milk

Pouch; LLDPE – Extrusion Coating, Film, Injection, Rotomoulding; PP – Block Copolymer, BOPP Homopolymer, Injection, Raffia, Random Copolymer, TQ

Film; PVC - Suspension; PET – Bottle; PS – GPPS, HIPS; EVA.




Important Global News

Sinopec Maoming Petrochemical is in plans to shut a high density polyethylene (HDPE) plant for a maintenance turnaround. A Polymerupdate source in China informed that the company is likely to shut its plant in early-March 2016. It is expected to remain off-line for a period of around 7-8 days. Located at Guangdong in China, the HDPE plant has a production capacity of 350,000 mt/year.

PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) is in plans to shut all three High density polyethylene (HDPE) units for a maintenance turnaround. A Polymerupdate source in Thailand informed that the company has scheduled to shut its HDPE units in late February 2016 along with the upstream cracker. It is expected to remain under a maintenance turnaround for a period of around 15-20 days. Located at Map Ta Phut in Thailand, the HDPE plant consisting three units has a production capacity of 300,000 mt/year, 500,000 mt/year and 140,000 mt/year.

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is in plans to restart its HDPE plant at Gandhar complex. A Polymerupdate source informed that the plant is scheduled to resume production today. The plant was shut for a maintenance turnaround on February 1, 2016. Located at Gandhar complex in Dahej, the HDPE plant has a production capacity of 340,000 mt/year.

Unipetrol is likely to shut its polypropylene (PP) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) plants. A Polymerupdate source in the Czech Republic informed that the company has scheduled maintenance in March 2016. Both the plants are expected to remain shut for the period of around 5-6 weeks. Located in Litvinov, Czech Republic, the petrochemical complex comprises of HDPE plant with a production capacity of 320,000 mt/year and PP plant with a production capacity of 290,000 mt/year.

HDPE Offers

No offers




Capacity Projections & Demand Supply Scenario

Exhibit: HDPE Capacity Projections of the major producers in India

HDPE Capacity (Kt) 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

RIL 490 490 490 490

GAIL 700 700 700 700

HPL 550 550 550 550

IOCL 475 475 475 475

OPAL --- 720 720 720

BPCL 155 155 155 155

Source: Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturer's Association of India (RIL- Reliance Industries Limited; GAIL- Gas Authority of India Limited; HPL-

Haldia Petrochemicals Limited; IOCL- Indian Oil Corporation Limited; OPAL- ONGC Petro Additions Limited; BPCL- Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited)

Exhibit: Ethylene Capacity Projections of the major producers in India

Ethylene Capacity (Kt) 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

RIL 1840 1840 3240 3240

GAIL 1000 1000 1000 1000

HPL 670 670 670 670

IOCL 857 857 857 857

BPCL - Assam GC 220 220 220 220

OPAL 0 1100 1100 1100

Source: Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturer's Association of India (RIL- Reliance Industries Limited; GAIL- Gas Authority of India Limited; HPL-

Haldia Petrochemicals Limited; IOCL- Indian Oil Corporation Limited; OPAL- ONGC Petro Additions Limited; BPCL-Assam GC - Bharat Petroleum

Corporation Limited Assam Gas Cracker)




Exhibit: India HDPE Demand Supply

HDPE (Kt) 2010-11 A 2011-12 A 2012-13 A 2013-14 E 2014-15 E 2015-16 E 2016-17 E

HDPE Capacity 1690 1795 1795 1795 1830 2810 2810

LLD/HD Capacity 847 1007 1007 1007 1007 1007 1007

Total Capacity 2537 2802 2802 2802 2837 3817 3817

Production 1216 1503 1501 1486 1621 2521 2606

Imports 330 385 440 410 480 220 230

Exports 55 227 160 115 65 368 500

Apparent Demand 1491 1661 1781 1781 2036 2373 2336

Demand Growth% 10.80% 11.40% 7.22% 0.00% 14.32% 16.55% -1.56%

The table provides the India HDPE Demand Supply Snapshot.

Exhibit: India All PE Demand Supply

All PE(Kt) 2010-11 A 2011-12 A 2012-13 A 2013-14 E 2014-15 E 2015-16 E 2016-17 E

Capacity 2826 2965 2980 2980 3065 5115 5565

Production 2072 2519 2457 2485 2654 4488 4996

Imports 970 1060 1217 1179 1313 790 730

Exports 65 251 170 125 77 588 730

Apparent Demand 2977 3328 3504 3539 3890 4690 4996

Demand Growth% 8.40% 11.79% 5.29% 1.00% 9.92% 20.57% 6.52%

The table lists out the PE Demand Snapshot for India.




Exhibit: India Polymer Demand Supply

Polymers (Kt) 2010-11 A 2011-12 A 2012-13 A 2013-14 E 2014-15 E 2015-16 E 2016-17 E

Capacity 8348 8487 8967 9882 10089 12290 12740

Production 6854 7682 7958 8424 9059 11311 12089

Operating Rate 82% 91% 89% 85% 90% 92% 95%

Imports 2087 2404 2970 2777 2957 2688 2907

Exports 722 1121 1057 1005 1215 1667 1641

Net Trade -1365 -1283 -1913 -1772 -1742 -1021 -1266

Apparent Demand 8219 8965 9871 10196 10801 12332 13355

Demand Growth% 7.40% 9.08% 10.11% 3.29% 5.93% 14.17% 8.30%

The table lists out the India Polymer Demand Supply scenario.

Exhibit: India Ethylene Net Availability

Ethylene (Kt) 2010-11 A 2011-12 A 2012-13 A 2013-14 E 2014-15 E 2015-16 E 2016-17 E

Capacity 3837 3907 3907 4157 5637 7127 7127

Production 3000 3355 3744 3985 5165 6755 6955

Imports 55 15 23 50 25 25 25

Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net Availability 3055 3370 3767 4035 5190 6780 6980

All ethylene produced in India is used for local consumption and is not exported.




GoI 5 Year Plan CAGR Figures

5 Year Plan Parameter HDPE Ethylene CAGR

Capacity Creation 9.20% 9.00%

Demand 10.90% 7.00%

Capacity Creation 11.10% 12.90%

Demand 9.20% 12.40%

13th 5 Year Plan

Growth (2016/17 -

2021/22)

Demand 9.00% 0.80%

11th 5 Year Plan

Growth (2005/06 -

2011/12)

12th 5 Year Plan

Growth (2011/12 -

2016/17)

Actual

Projected

Source: GoI 12th 5 Year Plan on Petrochemicals

The table gives the Actual CAGR achieved in the 11th 5 Year Plan (2005/06 – 2011/12) and the projected CAGR for the 12th 5 year Plan (2011/12 –

2016/17) and 13th 5 year Plan (2016/17 – 2021/22) for HDPE and Ethylene. As per government projections, HDPE is likely to enjoy above GDP growth

rates in the 12th and 13th 5 Year plan periods.




India Import Duty Structure

Products Basic Duty %Countervailing

Duty (CVD) %

Education Cess

on CVD %

Special

Additional Duty

(SAD) %

TOTAL DUTY %

LDPE 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

LLDPE 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

HDPE 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

PP-Homopolymer 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

PP-Copolymer 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

GPPS 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

HIPS 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

PVC 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

PET 7.5 12 3 4 25.852

INDIA

Source: Government of India




Crude Price Movement V/s INR performance against the USD

Source: Polymerupdate Market Intelligence, RBI currency reference rates

The graph shows the movement of Dated Brent, Nymex crude and the INR performance against the USD. The Y-axis on the left is USD/barrel rate while

the Y-axis on the right represents the conversion rate.

INR value against the USD in the beginning of February 2016 = 67.85 per USD

INR value against the USD at the end of February 2016 = 68.40 per USD

% net value change in February 2016 = 0.81% (Depreciation)

Dated Brent price in the beginning of February 2016 = 34.24 USD per barrel

Dated Brent price at the end of February 2016 = 35.97 USD per barrel

% net price change in February 2016 = 5.05%

Nymex crude price in the beginning of February 2016 = 31.62 USD per barrel

Nymex crude price at the end of February 2016 = 33.75 USD per barrel

% net price change in February 2016 = 6.74%




India GDP Growth Projections 2015-16:

Organization GDP Growth

ADB 7.4%

CRISIL 7.4%

IMF 7.5%

World Bank 7.5%

Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) 7.1%

Moody's 7.0%

Fitch 7.5%

Source: Data collected from various sources




We will be happy to receive any feedback/suggestions on this analysis.

Also, if there are any queries, then please do not hesitate to get in touch with us at [email protected].

Note: The Govt. of India has decided as a policy matter to not disclose the names of the importers/exporters on the ground that revealing such

information would violate commercial confidentiality. These rules are in the nature of subordinate legislation and have the legal force of the Parliament.

Please refer to Notification No. 128/2004-Customs (N.T) Direct Link: http://www.cbec.gov.in/customs/cs-act/notifications/notfns-2k4/csnt128-2k4.htm

The content in this report wherever the source is mentioned as the “GoI 12th 5 Year Plan on Petrochemicals” is owned by the Planning Commission,

Government of India and its further distribution is strictly forbidden without permission of the Planning Commission, Government of India.

Disclaimer: This analysis makes use of Import data procured from the Indian Customs and is being made available on an “as is” basis. We have

attempted to refine the raw database by removing records with sweep/reprocessed/off-grade material shipments and records with non-standard units. We

have undertaken our best efforts in refining the database while formulating our statistics; however, customs data is known to include repetitions which are

difficult to verify independently and February have inadvertently got included in this analysis. The figures have been rounded off during some

calculations; hence some totals/subtotals February not match exactly. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness,

accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information/opinions contained herein. It is advisable that all figures be considered as approximate.

In no event will Shalimar Infotech be liable for any expense, loss or damage including, without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any

expense, loss or damage whatsoever arising from use, or loss of use, of data, arising out of or in connection with the use of this report. The content of

this report cannot be reproduced without obtaining permission from Shalimar Infotech Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved.



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