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© 2018 MKPE Consulting LLC HDR Cinema in 2018 Michael Karagosian 28 June 2018 2018 QLED & Advanced Display Summit in Hollywood
© 2018 MKPE Consulting LLC
HDR Cinema in 2018Michael Karagosian
28 June 2018
2018 QLED & Advanced Display Summit in Hollywood
© 2018 MKPE Consulting LLC
HDR Cinema is a new format
i.e., *not the same* as SDR Cinema.
Requires new thinking.
Or no thinking.
That’s what this presentation is about.
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Can cinema afford it?
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0.800
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Theatrical Attendance (in billions)
Box Office sustained through rising ticket price - diminishing elasticity in pricing for HDR
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Can cinema afford to ignore it?
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Audience expectations are changing.
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The market is ripe
Virtual Print Fees expiring, equipment loans retired.
Cost of maintenance going up as equipment ages.
HDR is emerging in the home…raising audience expectations.
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Exhibitors will invest in new equipment - but which equipment?
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More than one HDR display technology
Direct-view LED
Light steering in projectors
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Will LED manufacturers cater to this market?
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160,000 cinema screens worldwideIf 10% were to convert to HDR10% => 16,000 screens@ US$500K per screen = US$8B
If 2% were to convert to HDR2% => 3,200 screens@ US$500K per screen = US$1.6Bover 5 years => US$320M / year
In comparison, worldwide LED display market ~ US$5B in 2016
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Many technical challengesNew EOTF is needed. DCI specifies gamma 2.6 for SDR.
HDR requires higher frame rates than 24 fps.
Image codestream bitrate: DCI specifies 250 Mb/s. Is this good enough for 4K HDR at higher frame rates?
Color gamut = DCI P3. Appears to be agreement to sustain this.
But color volume will vary across the cinema footprint due to a variance in peak white. How will this be managed?
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Uniform HDR distribution is a challenge
Cinema standards have a poor track record. - SMPTE DCP is 9 years old with 10-20% worldwide market penetration. - SMPTE immersive sound in committee for 5 years…and counting.
Historically, innovation in cinema is driven by technology providers with no concern for standards.
Even with standards, who would oversee compliance?
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The studio dilemma
Technical execs can only exert control by diminishing revenue. “If it doesn’t do xyz, we won’t ship the movie.”
Distribution execs are paid to maximize revenue.
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Hmmm…wonder who wins?
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The leadership dilemmaDolby: the leader in HDR with 40+ years in cinema,but how to lead mainstream cinema without diluting the Dolby Cinema brand?
Samsung: ~1 year in cinema: just learning the market, no cinema brand.
Sony: in cinema 25 years…?
LG: ?
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The logical but maybe impossible 1st step: StEM 2.0
Explore HDR at higher frame rates.
Explore methods for single distribution with variance in exhibition color volume.
Explore image codestream bitrate.
Who will finance the project?
Who will own the rights?
What will be the license terms?
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Is cinema about to repeat the 90’s?
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Or will someone take the 1st step?
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Michael Karagosian President MKPE Consulting LLC [email protected] mkpe.com
