Date post: | 15-Apr-2017 |
Category: |
Data & Analytics |
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HEAD OR HEARTThe conflicts of political polling
alex wheatley
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• Day before vote• 450 Nat Rep• Undecided asked lean
POLLING THE UK’S E.U. REFERENDUM
1
48% 52%
Remain Leave *the result was 48% remain 52% leave
WE CALLED IT!
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THIS WAS JUST LUCK
interview 96% of voters and still call Remain victory
One sample:
82%
82%
18%
Remain Leave
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AS LONG AS IT’S REPRESENTIVE
Don’t know the causes we need to represent!
WWW
NAT REP NAT REP
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“I’m voting remain”
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NOT A SIMPLE QUESTION
IT’S SENSITIVE1…so context has an impact
IT’S A SELF OBSERVATION2…so it needs breaking down
IT’S A BEHAVIOUR PREDICTION3…we’re not good at those
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FAILED PREDICTION
272 F.T. 58% OF POLLS GOT IT WRONG
CAN WE PREDICT OTHERS?
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NEED SOME EXPERT PREDICTORS
“Best way to measure predictive abilities is to longitudinally measure accurate predictions”
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SOME EXPERT PREDICTORS
GOT IT RIGHT!
0.37
37%
63%
Remain Leave
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MORE WORK NEEDED
Emotions bias
prediction
2015 Conservative victory makes
sample self selecting
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NOT A SIMPLE SOLUTION
• 2 years of experimentation• More than 10 studies
Out of the box solution?No experts needed
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ASKED TO “PREDICT WHO WILL WIN?”
GOT IT WRONG!0.61
61%
39%
Remain Leave
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INFORMED PREDICTION
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ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE
Initial Prediction After Information After Information of Confident & Correct
61% 58%
76%
*percentage predicting Remain victory
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ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE
MORE WRONG IF THINK THEY ARE CORRECT
Initial Prediction After Information After Information of Confident & Correct
61% 58%
76%
*percentage predicting Remain victory
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ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE
MORE WRONG IF THINK THEY ARE CORRECT
Initial Prediction After Information After Information of Confident & Correct
61% 58%
76%
*percentage predicting Remain victory
RED FLAG FOR CONFIRMATION BIAS
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STRUGGLE WITH HEAD SO WHAT ABOUT HEART?
I.A.T. showed clear lead for Cameron across positive attributes
WORKED IN 2015
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TESTING BREXIT
Thumbs up/down I.A.T. of
images
Undecided Voters
52% 48%
DIDN’T WORK THIS TIME
*percentage thumbs up of undecided voters
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NOT A CLEAR READ
Undecided Voters
40%
*percentage thumbs up of undecided voters
NEGATIVE REACTION
A clearer picture?
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POLLS BALANCED & NO SINGLE MEASURE TIPS SCALE
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ADD IT ALL UP
• Emotions
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ADD IT ALL UP
• Emotions• Prediction
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ADD IT ALL UP
• Emotions• Prediction• Biases
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ALL FALLING ON ONE SIDE
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NO LONGER A COIN TOSS!
The next test…