July © 2015

Hearing, Touching, Smelling, Seeing...

What will be the next improvement MEMS

will bring to our senses?

Dr. Eric Mounier

Yole Développement

2

CONTENT

• MEMS & Sensors markets & applications

• The MEMS ecosystem

• MEMS for our 5 senses

• MEMS & Sensors for wearables

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MEMS & SENSORS ROADMAP

From Moore to More than Moore to Beyond …

MEMS & Sensors enable key functionalities…

Current battleground of the industry

1980 2010 2020

Industry competition

MooreIndustry competition

More than Moore

Industry Competition

Beyond Moore

LaptopPersonal Computers

Smartphones

Autonomous

vehicles

Robotic

Servants

Quantified

self

Drones

Acceleration of time

SensingInteraction age

ProcessingInformation age

ActuatingEnhancement age

Tablets

Smart

homes

2040+

Telekinesis

From sensing to sensing + reacting for first robots (autonomous cars …)

4

2015-2020 MEMS MARKETS

Consumer is still the main driver

Consumer (incl. wearable) ismore than60%

5

THE ACCELEROMETER EXAMPLE – HISTORICAL DATA OF VOLUME GROWTH:FROM 50MUNITS TO 5BUNITS IN 15 YEARS

Until 2008, market wasdriven by automotive, thenconsumer came

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Accelerometer volume market evolution (Munits) from 2002 to 2015

Accelerometer Accelerometer Automotive Accelerometer Consumer

Market driven by Automotive Market driven by Consumer

1st Phase“Protected” market

3th Phase“Integration”

Combos replacement

2nd Phase“New application” (e.g. Smartphone)

Smartphone waveGame changer: ASP

Autonomous car as the next ramp-up?

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WHY SOME DEVICES ARE SUCCESSFUL, SOME OTHERS NOT

The 5 criteria for MEMS success

Gas sensors are likely to have a market ramp up.

• MEMS is a “transfer function” using semiconductor micro-machining based technologies to create devices replacing more complex, bulky or less sensitive devices.

• The 5 criteria that determine a MEMS success: size reduction, potential cost reduction, “good enough” specifications, simpler manufacturing compared to existing solutions (less mechanical parts for e.g.) & reliability.

2015 SITUATION SIZE REDUCTION COST REDUCTION« GOOD ENOUGH »

SPECS

SIMPLER

MANUFACTURABILITYRELIABILITY

Energy harvesters POSSIBLE POSSIBLE NO NO ?

Gas sensors YES POSSIBLE YES - (already a semiconductor techno) YES

MEMS-based

touchscreensNO NO NO NO ?

MEMS for Photonics

(Si optical benches)YES POSSIBLE YES YES YES

Microspeakers YES POSSIBLE NO NO ?

Auto Focus NO (added thickness) NO YES YES YES

RF MEMS YES POSSIBLE YES NO NO

• Among all the different MEMS devices in development that could have a significant growth in the future, we foresee gas sensors as the next success for the MEMS industry.

• In any case, at least 10 to 15 years of development are necessary to achieve all the successful criteria.

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2014 HAS BEEN A GOOD YEAR FOR THE MEMS INDUSTRY.

MEMS business size vs. 2014 / 2013 GAGR

Most of the MEMS players hada positive growth in 2014

+100%

$100M $1B$50M

+10%

-10%

2013/14 CAGR

2014 MEMS

Sales

+50%

$500M0%

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UNCHALLENGED TOP 5 LEADERS

TOP 5 account for $3.8B MEMS sales!

• TOP 5 remains unchanged compared to 2013 but Bosch now accounts for one-third of the $3.8B MEMS revenues shared by the top 5 MEMS companies (accounting for about one third of the total MEMS business).

2013

$11B business

TOP 5 ~ $3.8B (1/3)

TOP Leader ~ $1.3B (1/3)

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DEVICESVS. SYSTEMS MAKERS & NUMBER OF MEMS DEVICES

The 3 « Great Walls of MEMS » rule!

Entering the MEMS business and beingsuccessful isa long & complexprocess!

SY

ST

EM

MA

KER

SD

EV

ICES M

AK

ER

S

1 MEMS product line 2 to 3 MEMS products line > 4 MEMS products line

MEM

S r

eve

nues

The « Devices

to Systems »

barrier

The « from 1 to more MEMS product lines » barrier

The « MEMS business entry » barrier

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A BRIEF HISTORY OF WEARABLE ELECTRONICS

Wearable devices are not new, but have become smarter

Source: MaRS

Digital Single function

not connected

Multi-function

not connected

Multi-function

partially

connected

Always-on

smart

connected

Evolution of features

Evolution of technologies

Not new but smarter (and you look less dumb as well …)

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KEY ATTRIBUTES OF WEARABLE TECH PRODUCTS

Six key attributes that make a big difference

Hands-Free

Always-On

Environment

-Aware

Connected

Attention-Getting

Ecosystem/Development

Platform

Source: MIT, KPCB

Voice/Gesture

recognition Low Power consumption

Instant wake

Background working/sensing

Accelerometer

Gyroscope

IMU

Compass

Camera

Microphone

Environmental sensor

Wi-Fi

Cellular

Bluetooth

NFC

Less distracting with notifications

Short interaction

Invisible - useful data

3th party apps

API partners

Accessories

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CHALLENGES FOR THE WEARABLE MARKET

Wearables have specific technical requirements

• Some requirements are relevant to sensors

Ultra Low Power

Low power consumption

Accuracy

Reliable data

Low noise

4Requirements

Useful insights

Multiple parameters

Non-invasive sensing

Sensors’

PackagingSmall size, almost invisible

Reliable and low cost

No specific challenge ! No technological breakthrough

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INTEGRATE MORE AND MORE SENSORS…

• Reduced size

• Added sensors

• Added features

Number of

sensors

Syst

em

Siz

e

Smartphone

Portable

systems/Analyzer

EXAMPLE: Blood Pressure Monitor

2002

Wearable

EXAMPLE: Apple iPhone

2007

Wearable

EXAMPLE: Fitbit band

2007

EXAMPLE: Microsoft Hololens

2020

Wearable

EXAMPLE: Apple Watch

2015

1 5 8

Smartphone

EXAMPLE: Samsung S5

2014

EXAMPLE: MC10 Body

temperature

2013

100 cm3

60 cm3

15 cm3

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DRIVERS FOR WEARABLE AND MOBILE CARE APPLICATIONS

Two markets are coming together, and are already mature enough to perform well

Wearable

and Mobile

Care

Point of Care

Hospital Care

Everywhere Care

Smartphone &

Tablet revolution

TimeLevel of integration

Feature

Phones

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MIMICKING THE 5 SENSES…

MEMS devices and other sensors bring increased functionality…

Smell

Hearing Taste

Sight

Touch

microphones

Gas sensors

Force & touch sensors

Humidity sensors

microbolometersCMOS Image

sensor

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… TO MORE

…and are aiming for greater external interaction…

Smell

Hearing Taste

Sight & focus

Touch

microphones

microbolometersmicromirrors

Pressure

Gas sensors

Pressure sensorsFluids

BiochipsForce & touch sensors

Humidity sensors

Balance

Inertial systems

RF communicationOscillators, tuners & filters

SpeechMicrospeakers

CMOS Image

sensor

Micropumps

Autofocus

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THE 5 SENSES FORECAST

Wellness isbecomingpredominant

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1 000

$1 200

$1 400

$1 600

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

The « Augmented Perseption » MEMS & Sensors Forecast

IMPROVED WELLNESS

INCREASED FITNESS

Touching

Tasting

Smelling

Hearing

Sight

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THE 6TH SENSE: NIGHT VISIONMarket forecast in shipments (units) – Optimistic scenario: what will happen if smartphones integrate microbolometer.

• CAGR 2015–2020 will be about + 77% in units: ≈ 15 x growth between 2015 - 2020.

• Ultra low-resolution sensors shipments are boosted by sensor integration into smartphones in 2019 and will represent more than 80% of total shipments in 2020.

• We assumed that only ultra low end microbolometers could be integrated into smartphones thanks to high resolution (80x60) and small size that is mandatory for smartphone integration.

• Huge price erosion assumed due to high volumes forecasted : - 33 % for ultra low end microbolometers.

CAGR 2015-2020

76.8%

21.8%

16.8%

42.9%

170.0%

34.8%

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NEW KEY PRODUCTS INTRODUCED SINCE ONE YEAR

• Smartphone and ultra low end segment has been very dynamic in 2014-2015

Seek ThermalFLIR One Gen 2

Bosch Power Tools NEC VGA 12 micron

FLIR C2

FLIR TCXI3 system

For smartphones

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WEARABLES: A 285M UNIT PER YEAR MARKET BY 2020

Wrist-worn devices will represent 86% of the wearable market by 2020.

• We estimate that the wearable sales hit 83M units this year, with 88% of the sales originating from wrist-worn devices.

• These wrist-worn devices will represent 86% of the wearable market by 2020, a volume of 244M units. Other devices will add 40 M units.

• We don’t expect high volumes of smart clothing to be sold until after 2017.

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WEARABLES FOR CONSUMER MARKET, A SUCCESSFUL MARKET

Healthcare and industry also, but with a slower rhythm

Wearable industry for

consumer could reach $88B by

2020

• Consumer market is clearly one of the winners of wearable industry, with a value ranging from $1B in 2012 to $80B by 2020. CAGR2015-2020=32%

• Healthcare market is expected to grow from $0.98B in 2012 to $7B in 2020. CAGR2015-2020=24%

• Regarding the industrial market, its value will expand from $0.4B in 2015 to $3.61B by 2020. CAGR2015-2020=58%

• Consumer market will experienced in 2015 a huge increase due to the new entrant Apple, with the Apple Watch.

Loga

rith

mic

sca

le

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SENSORS MARKET FOR WEARABLE

• Successful businesses in wearables:

inertial, pressure, biosensor and microphone market

• Sensors for wearables could reach a total number of 1.2Bunits by 2020.

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CONCLUSION

• Wearable market could be worth $88B by 2020!

Sensors Units

2.9B

Systems Units

600M

Market Value

$128B

Sensors Units

1.2B

Systems Units

284M

Market Value

$88B

Sensors Units

213M

Systems Units

83M

Market Value

$23B

2015 2020 2024Year Year Year

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