Introduction
• Climate Change and Variability Considerations of thepotential impacts of climate change on agriculture shouldbe based not only on the mean values of expected climaticparameters but also on the probability, frequency, andseverity of possible extreme events. Temporal and spatialvariance of meteorological conditions and storms canaffect soil conditions, water availability, agricultural yieldsand susceptibility to pest and pathogen infestations.(Rosenzweig et al 2001 ) .
(GFDL) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
(UKMO)United Kingdom Meteorological Office
(GISSA)Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Current carbon dioxide concentration
Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events
While changes in the long-term mean state of climatewill have numerous consequences on a range ofenvironmental, social, and economic sectors, manysignificant impacts of climatic change are likely tocome about from shifts in the intensity and frequencyof extreme weather events( Beniston et al 2004 )
1.3 Definitions of heat wave
Heat wave index A definitionbased on( Frich et al 2002)'sHeat Wave Duration Index isthat a heat wave occurs whenthe daily maximumtemperature of more than fiveconsecutive days exceeds theaverage maximumtemperature by 5ºC , thenormal period being 1961–
1990
study area ( upper Egypt )
Climate change in upper Egypt
Heat waves in upper Egypt
Egyptian metrology data for Luxor governorate October 2014
now all stick holders and farmers know when extreme weather event will come .
So , what is the reaction ?
identify the optimum temperature for each plant stage
wheat . Maize , sugar cane , tomato sorghum
Create link between the 5 days forecast and identify the optimum temperature for each plant stage
Spread the message through different ways
14 climate information centers established in 14 NGOs in 5 governorates
5 extension unit established in agricultural directorates .
first version for wheat , second for sorghum . for sugarcane