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HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E....

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HELCATS Connec&ng Coronal Mass Ejec&ons to their Solar Ac&ve Region Sources Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25
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Page 1: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

HELCATSConnec&ngCoronalMassEjec&onstotheirSolarAc&veRegionSources

SophieA.Murray,P.T.Gallagher,P.Zucca,E.P.CarleyISSITeamMee&ngonSolarFlarePredic&on

2016-10-25

Page 2: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

STEREOspacecraK

Defini&vecatalogueofCMEsimagedbySTEREO/SECCHIHeliosphericImagers.

Page 3: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

STEREO/SECCHICoronagraphs

SDO

COR1

COR2

Page 4: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

SECCHIHeliosphericImagers

Wide-anglevisible-lightimagingsystemforthedetec&onofCMEeventsininterplanetaryspaceand,inpar&cular,ofeventsdirectedtowardstheEarth.

HI1

HI2

Page 5: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

HeliophysicsCataloguing,Analysis,andTechniquesServiceTrackinginterplanetaryCMEs

1901eventsfrom2007-2014

Page 6: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

HeliophysicsCataloguing,Analysis,andTechniquesServiceTrackinginterplanetaryCMEs

HI COR2 SOURCE

1901eventsfrom2007-2014

Page 7: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

Automa&cCMEsourceiden&fica&on

SOURCEHI COR2

Ballis&cpropaga&onmodelconstrainedby

•  Maxandminimumspeed

•  Timesearchwindow

FLARE

τ f ±Δτ f = τ i −Ri − Rf

vcme ±Δvcme

Ri=12R☉Rf=2R☉

vcme=150-1500kms-1

Yurchyshynetal,2005

Page 8: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

Automa&cCMEsourceiden&fica&on

SOURCEHI COR2

Ballis&cpropaga&onmodelconstrainedby

•  Maxandminimumspeed

•  Timesearchwindow

•  CMEposi&onangle

FLARE

Page 9: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

Automa&cCMEsourceiden&fica&on

SOURCEHI COR2

Ballis&cpropaga&onmodelconstrainedby

•  Maxandminimumspeed

•  Timesearchwindow

•  CMEposi&onangle

•  CMEvsflow

FLARE

Page 10: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

Automa&cCMEsourceiden&fica&on

SOURCEHI COR2 FLARE

Page 11: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

Automa&cCMEsourceiden&fica&on

SOURCEHI COR2 FLARE

Ballis&cpropaga&onmodelconstrainedby

•  Maximum/minimumspeed

•  Timesearchwindow

τ f ±Δτ f = τ i −Ri − Rf

vcme ±Δvcme

Ri=2R☉Rf=0.5R☉

vcme=200-800kms-1

Yurchyshynetal,2005

Page 12: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

Automa&cCMEsourceiden&fica&on

SOURCEHI COR2 FLARE

Ballis&cpropaga&onmodelconstrainedby

•  Maximum/minimumspeed

•  Timesearchwindow

•  Hemisphereloca&on

Page 13: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

Automa&cCMEsourceiden&fica&on

SOURCEHI COR2 FLARE

Ballis&cpropaga&onmodelconstrainedby

•  Maximum/minimumspeed

•  Timesearchwindow

•  Hemisphereloca&on

•  Op&onaldatabasesearching

Page 14: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

Automa&cCMEsourceiden&fica&on

SOURCEHI COR2 FLARE

Ballis&cpropaga&onmodelconstrainedby

•  Maximum/minimumspeed

•  Timesearchwindow

•  Hemisphereloca&on

•  Op&onaldatabasesearching

•  Qualityofdetec&on

Page 15: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

Automa&cCMEsourceiden&fica&on

SOURCEHI COR2 FLARE

Page 16: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

Automa&cCMEsourceiden&fica&on

SOURCEHI COR2 FLARE

Matchflarepeakposi&ontoac&veregion.

•  Constrainedbyloca&on(la&tudeandlongituderange). •  NOAANo.

•  Loca&on•  Area•  Longitudinalextent•  No.Spots•  Haleclass•  McIntoshclass

Page 17: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

Automa&cCMEsourceiden&fica&on

SOURCEHI COR2 FLARE

Matchflarepeakposi&ontoac&veregion.

•  Constrainedbyloca&on(la&tudeandlongituderange).

SolarMonitorAc&veRegionTracker[Higginsetal]

Page 18: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

Automa&cCMEsourceiden&fica&on

SOURCEHI COR2 FLARE

Page 19: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

Automa&cCMEsourceiden&fica&on

SOURCEHI COR2 FLARE

Page 20: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

Conclusions

•  Furthertes&ngneededbutautoma&cmethodworkingwell

•  Proper&escorrela&ngasexpected

Page 21: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

Conclusions

•  Furthertes&ngneededbutautoma&cmethodworkingwell

•  Proper&escorrela&ngasexpected

•  Moredetailedanalysistofollowoncecodefullycompleted

•  ComparisionbetweenCMEkinema&csandac&veregionproper&esusingFLARECASTdatabase.

Page 22: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

Conclusions

•  Furthertes&ngneededbutautoma&cmethodworkingwell

•  Proper&escorrela&ngasexpected

•  Moredetailedanalysistofollowoncecodefullycompleted

•  ComparisionbetweenCMEkinema&csandac&veregionproper&esusingFLARECASTdatabase

•  Runonotherdatabasesandinreal&me

Page 23: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

TrinityCollegeDublin,TheUniversityofDublin

Conclusions

•  Furthertes&ngneededbutautoma&cmethodworkingwell

•  Proper&escorrela&ngasexpected

•  Moredetailedanalysistofollowoncecodefullycompleted

•  ComparisionbetweenCMEkinema&csandac&veregionproper&esusingFLARECASTdatabase

•  Runonotherdatabasesandinreal&me

hap://github.com/tcdsolar/hap://www.helcats-fp7.eu/

Page 24: HELCATS - International Space Science Institute · Sophie A. Murray, P. T. Gallagher, P. Zucca, E. P. Carley ISSI Team Mee&ng on Solar Flare Predic&on 2016-10-25 Trinity College Dublin,

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