Chris Haleua - Sr. Product Marketing Manager

Advanced Bidding

3x3 = 9 Segments

CPA Conversions

155.48 1

270.22 1

CV CE CP

NV NE NP

IV IE IP

Cost Conversions

250 0

190 0

Impressions Position

1,100 8.9

870 7.6

3

1 | LAWS - Bidding Dynamics

2 | PATTERNS - Deadend Quadrants

3 | APPLICATION - Optimization Methods

4 | BALANCE - Dimensional Modeling

5 | ADVANTAGE Secret Tools

Summary

Bidding Giants

George Michie Brad Geddes Sid Shah

Wijnand MeierHal VarianBen Vigneron

tiny.cc/wijnandtiny.cc/halvariantiny.cc/vigneron

tiny.cc/michie tiny.cc/sidshahtiny.cc/geddes

Marie Curie

no fear of perfection;you'll never reach it.

Nothing in life is to be feared;it is only to be understood

Rene Descartes

solved became a rule,

which serve afterwards to

Vilfredo Pareto

many events,roughly 80% of the effects

come from 20% of the

Isaac Newton

I have seen further than others,

it is by standing upon the shoulders

of giants

Newtonian Laws

AERODYNAMICS THERMODYNAMICS

1. Inertia

2. Acceleration

3. Equilibrium

Transfer

Entropy

Absolute Zero

F=ma

A=0m/s2

FA=-FB

-W

dS

459.67° F

Newtonian Application

MOTION ENERGY

1. Inertia: Things in motion keep going

2. Acceleration: Smaller things speed up faster

3. Equilibrium: Equal & opposite reaction

Transfer: Energy becomes heat & work

Entropy: Nothing is 100% efficient

Absolute 0: No entropy for the coldest

Search Laws

OPTIMIZATION ANALYSIS

1. Bidding Inertia

2. Learning Acceleration

3. Modifier Equilibrium

Focus Transfer

Volume Entropy

Absolute Deadweight

Search Application

OPTIMIZATION ANALYSIS

1. Inertia no contradiction in exclusive segments

2. Acceleration assist & micro > clustering

3. Equilibrium balance volume & efficiency

Transfer - filter zero, sort next best

Entropy averages lie

Deadweight - archive not hoard

13

Overcome bid inertia by reducing mass

14

Extra focus on the critical few

2 Dimensional Cartesian Plane

1 | LAWS - Bidding Dynamics

2 | PATTERNS - Deadend Quadrants

3 | APPLICATION - Optimization Methods

4 | BALANCE - Dimensional Modeling

5 | ADVANTAGE Secret Tools

3x3 Intersection

17

ConversionSuccess

Non-ConvertingSpend

IgnoredImpressions

Vo

lum

eLe

ade

rs

Eff

icie

ncy

Th

reat

s

Vis

ibili

tySt

rug

gle

s

Conversions > 0

Conversions = 0Cost > 0

Cost = 0Impressions > 0

FILTERSRev.

(Conv.)

Cost

Imp.

ROAS(CPA)

Pos.

CTR Pos.

Q Score Pos.

SORTSExtremely High Cost High CPC & Low Qual. ScoreLow CTR and High Impressions CV CE CP

NV NE NP

IV IE IP

How are we defending our top terms?How are we avoiding waste?How are we capturing interest?

How are we supporting growth?How are we balancing returns?How are we maintaining visibility?

How are we qualifying prospects?How are we engaging visitors?How are we demonstrating relevance?

How should we invest this extra budget?How should we project the potential?How did we grow 25% YOY in non-brand?

Dead-end Quadrants

FILTERS

Volume Leaders

Efficiency Threats

SORTS

ConversionSuccess

Non-Converting Spend

Conversions > 0

Conversions = 0Cost > 0

Revenue ROAS

CPCCost

Dead-end Quadrants

18

FILTERS

FILTERS

Volume Leaders

Efficiency Threats

SORTS

Non-Converting Spend

Ignored Impressions

Conversions = 0Cost > 0

Cost = 0Impressions > 0

CPCCost

Impressions Quality Score

Dead-end Quadrants

19

FILTERS

Pick up where we left off

Filter zero, then sort the next best volumeto identify the critical few leadersresulting in dead-end bottlenecks

Dead-ends

You might know your total conversions

...but do you know the minority of kw driving the majority of $?

You might know your efficiency threats...

...but do you know your deadends in the step before?

You might know your loss leaders...

...but do you know the segments & pivots that caused them?

Keep ratios in context where their volume building blocks

are the closest available signalto the bottom line

Avg. Pos CTR CPC CVR ROAS ROI

23

1 | LAWS - Bidding Dynamics

2 | PATTERNS - Deadend Quadrants

3 | APPLICATION - Optimization Methods

4 | BALANCE - Dimensional Modeling

5 | ADVANTAGE Secret Tools

Keyword Segments

ConversionSuccess

Non-ConvertingSpend

IgnoredImpressions

25

3 reports hidden in every keyword report

Segment by Sorting & Filtering

1. Sort by conversions Identify the first conversion zero

Filter out blank conversion data

2. Sort the rest by cost Identify the first cost zero

Filter out blank traffic data

3. Sort the rest by

Filter zero then sort by

the next best metric

ConversionSuccess

Non-ConvertingSpend

IgnoredImpressions

3x3 Segments in Rules

ROAS or CPA

Cost

Impressions

Filter zero then sort by

the next best metric

Segment Metric 3x3 Att Micro Weight Path

3 Dimensional Cartesian Coordinates

Conversions (Last)

Conversions (First)

Conversions (Assists)

3x3 to 4x3 Keyword Segments

ROAS (last) / CPA (last)

Cost

Impressions

Converting

Non-Converting

Ignored

ROAS (first) / CPA (first)Cost Per Assist

Attribution Perspectives

Is this how your funnel feels?

Prioritize Micro-Conversions According to the Customer Path

Traffic

Engagement

Attribution

Conversions

Revenue

Profit

Weight micro-conversions to refine portfolio objectives

Traffic

Engagement

Attribution

Conversions

Revenue

Profit

Filter zero then sort by the next best metricBrian Shindurling

Use the Best Tool Available Until the Fuel is goneBlake Haleua

In the absence of your preferred KPI, choose the metric closest to the bottom-lineCameron Cowan

When a more precise metric is missing, fall back to the best derivativeChris Haleua

Do what you can, with what you have, where you are. Theodore Roosevelt

Beyond the 3x3

36

ConversionSuccess

Non-ConvertingSpend

IgnoredImpressions

Vo

lum

eLe

ade

rs

Eff

icie

ncy

Th

reat

s

Vis

ibili

tySt

rug

gle

s

CV CE CP

NV NE NP

IV IE IP

Above: CPA COGS Profit Total On/Offline

Between: Attribution Assists & Micro-Conversions

Below: Long tail learning or Dead Weight Cleanup

Conversion Distribution

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

11

01

11

11

21

13

11

41

15

11

61

17

11

81

19

12

01

21

12

21

23

12

41

25

12

61

27

12

81

29

13

01

31

13

21

33

13

41

35

13

61

37

13

81

39

14

01

41

14

21

43

14

41

45

14

61

47

14

81

49

15

01

51

15

21

53

15

41

55

15

61

57

15

81

59

16

01

61

16

21

63

16

41

65

16

61

67

16

81

69

17

01

71

17

21

73

17

41

75

17

61

77

17

81

79

1

Revenue Pre Revenue Post

Forecast Adjustments in Predictive Modeling

38

Massive scale

Sparse data

Time delays

Conversion paths

Complex objectives

Micro-conversion weighting

𝑀𝑎𝑥

𝑖

𝑅𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒 𝑏𝑖

𝑠. 𝑡.

𝑖

𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑏𝑖 ≤ 𝐵

+ 𝑏𝑢𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠

Portfolio Modelling Summary

Apply portfolio theory to make bid tradeoffs for maximum marginal return

Maximize return for any budget through media mix modeling

Build and show granular bid unit model tables for traffic & conversions

Combine forecasts with dimensional algorithms for accurate simulations

Build trust in forecasts through model accuracy trends by metric & day

Simulation Yield Curve

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Average Daily Spend

Average Daily Conversions

17

%

59%

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Average Cost accuracy

Average of cost_accuracy_no_dow Average of cost_accuracy_w_dow

Tough Questions to Ask 3rd Party Tools

MethodOptimization types availableMost Popular optimization typesIntraday frequency

AdvantageUnique differentiatorsCompetitor threatsInnovation pace

BudgetingManual overridesSpend strategiesPacing visualizations

ModifiersReport segments for traffic / conversionsGeo, device, time, audience manuallyFully automated dimensional modeling

AttributionIntra-channelCross-channelCross-device

ObjectivesPositionEfficiencyMultiple weights

AssignmentCross-engineCross-accountExecution granularity

LearningClusteringEngagement / Micro-conversionsPrediction accuracy

Method What types of bid strategies are available?Method What is the most commonly-used bid management feature in your platform, and why?Method Can you set automated bidding rules for different segments of keywords?Method Does the system leverage any type of portfolio optimizations?Method For the automated bid changes, is there capability to receive forecasted results from changes prior to implementing?Method Would you share methodology around automated bidding services?Advantage What would you consider your competitive advantage to be over your competitive set?Advantage What are your plans to maintain your competitive advantage and stay at the forefront of innovation?Advantage How often do you innovate and refine your algorithms?Budgeting What budget options exist in the system? (Monthly/Daily Caps)Budgeting What budget pacing tools exist? (can I pull a pacing report, set a monthly campaign cap, and let the system adjust budgets?Budgeting Are there any budget pacing alerts capabilities in the UI?Modifiers Can you assign time/days of week to apply bid multipliers through the system?Modifiers How can device, geo, time, and audience modifiers be automated?Modifiers Does the system have ability to implement any type of day-parting or geo optimization? (ex. increase bids by X% during specific hours)Attribution Please describe how attribution is done across channels (ex. tiered system (if so, is this customized), custom weighting, etc .).Attribution What insight can the platform give into a client's customers path to conversion?Attribution Please describe any attribution settings within search (ex. last click/first click, even distribution across all in path, custom distribution, etc.).

AttributionDo you offer custom attribution models (first click, "prefer last," dynamic, etc.)? If yes, describe how you help each team to begin to find the best fit.

ManualWhat tools are in place to more efficiently change bids in bulk (ex. campaign or group setting to up all keyword level bids within group by X%.)

ManualCan you change bids, by keyword, across accounts via one bulk sheet? If not, please detail the process needed for cross account optimizations.

Manual How do manual bidding & automated bidding co-exist?Assignment Can you assign automated bidding for predefined segments/groupings cross account? Assignment Do you have cross engine bidding strategy? One massive portfolio or engine first?Assignment At what granularity is bid optimization executed? (at the group level, keyword level or both)?Objectives What options exist for bidding to position (ability to target a specific position and let the system adjust bids accordingly)Objectives What options exist for conversion efficiency thresholds? (CPA/ROI goal targeting by a custom formula or set of metrics)Objectives Can you specify specific actions or weighting to count toward the goal? Can I state my goals to match how my business really works?Learning Does the system provide seasonality bid recommendations based on previous promotion trends and year over year historic performance?

1 | LAWS - Bidding Dynamics

2 | PATTERNS - Deadend Quadrants

3 | APPLICATION - Optimization Methods

4 | BALANCE - Dimensional Modeling

5 | ADVANTAGE Secret Tools

Bid Modifiers

Programmatic Display

Traditional SEM

Enhanced Campaigns

Audience

Keyword

Match Type[exact]+broad

Bidding

Geo

Device

Time Category

Frequency

Difficult Decisions

50

First PPC Platforms

Enhanced Campaigns

AdWords

Facebook Ads

Real-Time Bidding

ShoppingCampaigns

Co

mp

lexi

ty

DIMENSIONALPORTFOLIORULES

Growing Complexity

KW1 KW2

Desktop

Mobile

SaturdayFridayThursdayWednesdayTuesdayMondaySunday

SaturdayFridayThursdayWednesdayTuesdayMondaySunday

Desktop

Mobile

SaturdayFridayThursdayWednesdayTuesdayMondaySunday

SaturdayFridayThursdayWednesdayTuesdayMondaySunday

KW1 KW2 KW1 KW2

PORTFOLIO

Device

Geo

54

1 | LAWS - Bidding Dynamics

2 | PATTERNS - Deadend Quadrants

3 | APPLICATION - Optimization Methods

4 | BALANCE - Dimensional Modeling

5 | ADVANTAGE Secret Tools

FREE STUFF!

Bid Rule Playbook: tiny.cc/rule

Bid Rule Library: tiny.cc/templaterule

3x3 Template: tiny.cc/3x3template

3x3 Macro: tiny.cc/3x3macro

I hear and I forget.

I see and I remember.

I do and I understand.

Time

Targeting

Analysis

Testing

BiddingCoverage

Structure

Life

IDEAL COMMON

Why

57

What

58

How

59

Key Takeaways

60

Performance Segments

Matched Metrics

3x3 Pattern

Micro-Conversions

AttributionPerspectives

WeightedObjectives

Conversion Paths

Excel Template Filters Saved ViewsSorts

Multi-Purpose Rules If Zero, Sort the Next Best Metric

Look Beyond Last for Influencers

Refine Portfolio Objectives

Multi-MetricSimulations

Certified Knowledge Audit Series on Bidding

tiny.cc/wijnand

QUESTIONS?