SFEN : Atoms for the future

The “Generation Adequacy Report”

■ A mission entrusted to RTE

■ A forecast analysis of supply-demand balance over a 5 years time-frame

■ An analysis of long-term issues (2030 horizon)

■ An issue of security of supply in physical terms

■ A contribution to the debate on energy transition

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MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST ANALYSIS (2014 -2017)

A structural slowdown in energy demand growth

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A steady growth of peak demand (more than 2 GW per year on average)...

… essentially driven by a sharp increase of temperature sensitivity of demand since 2000

Peak demand has increased 2 to 3 timesfaster than annual energy demand over the past decade

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The cold spell of February 2012 has resulted in a peak demand over 100 GW

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A continuous improvement of energy efficiency boosted by regulations

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Investors have anticipated the new thermal regulation in residential housing

Thermal regulation should lead to a lower growth of temperature-sensitive end-uses

A slowdown in the market shareof electric space heating

Trend in demand relating to electric heating(residential and tertiary)Trend in demand relating to electric heating(residential and tertiary)

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A depressed economic environment and lower GDP growth assumptions

9Source: Consensus Forecasts

Trends of demand should be driven by economic conditions and demand -side management

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Regional disparities in demand growth remain important

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A slowdown in the rate of development of new wind capacity but a stronger than anticipated growth of photovoltaic capacity

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A decrease in thermal installed capacity according to the statements of producers and of public authorities

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Different load management means are available according to electricity end -uses

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Security of supply will be tighter starting in 2016

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15(*) Capacity shortfall corresponds to the additional supply that is necessary to meet the adequacy criterion (loss of load expectation < 3 hours)

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PROSPECTIVE LONG-TERMSCENARIOS

Long -term prospective analysis

Scenarios are developed that:

■ are highly differentiated in order to cover the field of uncertainties

� Macroeconomics, energy policy, technological progress, etc.

■ are based on available data supplied by the market participants

■ meet the adequacy criterion

� Capacity shortfall is specified according to operating hours

■ will feed into network studies

� A need to anticipate the adaptation of the transmission network to trends in supply

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Four highly differentiated scenariosin order to cover the field of uncertainties

High DemandMedian

New mix Low Growth

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The underlying trend should continue

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Comparison of the different scenarios in the 2012 G enerationAdequacy Report – Supply mix through to 2030Comparison of the different scenarios in the 2012 G enerationAdequacy Report – Supply mix through to 2030

Coherent and differentiated visions of the supply mix through to 2030

20interconnections: 15 GW 21 GW 27 GW 27 GW 21 GW

Focus on “Median” and “New Mix”scenarios

Main assumptions Median New mix

Energy efficiency(2011-2030 estimate)

82 TWh 116 TWh

Nuclear capacity 56 GW 40 GW

Wind power capacity 30 GW 40 GW

Photovoltaic capacity 20 GW 30 GW

Mid-merit & peak load capacity(including demand response)

29 GW 30 GW

Interconnections 21 GW 28 GW

A specific analysis of the impact on the supply-demand balance of nuclear capacity of 40 GW in 2025 has be carried out (cf. chapter 6.3.5 of the Generation Adequacy Report)

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Generation fleet trendsnecessarily require an significantadaptation of the transmission network

■ Development of interconnections (27 GW in 2030 in “New Mix” scenario, compared to 14 GW today)

■ Strengthening of the French network, in connection with regional plans for energy (SRCAE, S3REnR)

■ Development of new network technologies as for instance the subsea interconnections necessary to connect marine facilities to the grid

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Important investments are planned between now and 2020 in ten -year development plan

■ between 800 and 1,000 km of new DC underground and subsea lines

■ strengthening of between 1,000 and 2,000 km of existing 400 kV-AC transmission lines

■ about 400 km of underground AC lines (400 kV and 225 kV)

■ between 15 and 20 new 400 kV substations

■ 8 GW of new interconnection lines

■ A strong timeline issue: permitting procedures for grid expansion projects often exceed ten years nowadays. Therefore, they must be streamlined and shortened to match the time required to bring new generation infrastructure on line in order to improve the implementation of energy policy decisions.

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GENERATION FLEET TRENDSNECESSARILY REQUIRE AN SIGNIFICANTADAPTATION OF THE TRANSMISSION NETWORK

Source : RTE- Schéma décennal

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Economics, Forecast & TransparencyDepartment