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1 GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday October 13, 2020 High-Frequency Dashboard: Tracking the Post-Lockdown Recovery (October 13, 2020) Shaun Osborne Chief FX Strategist 461.945.4538 [email protected] Follow us on Twitter @SCOTIABANKFX -80 -40 0 40 80 120 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacy Parks Transit stations Workplaces Residential Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. Canada Google Community Mobility % change from baseline, 7-dma (Last: Oct 09) -80 -40 0 40 80 120 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacy Parks Transit stations Workplaces Residential Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. US Google Community Mobility % change from baseline, 7-dma (Last: Oct 09) Google Community Mobility Daily Google data tracking movement trends points to continued, albeit slowing, gains in economic activity but the re-imposition of some lockdown measures in certain regions endangers the path of the recovery. While the end of strict quarantine periods led to an initial, strong, rebound in activity the coming quarters will see growth returning to a smoother trajectory, with economic output unlikely to reach its pre-coronavirus level before late-2021 given the economic impact and job losses resulting from the shutdowns and their spillovers. Activity in the UK seems to be declining amid a recent quick increase in COVID-19 contagions and also following the end of the governments restaurant subsidy scheme in late- Aug. Canadian retail and recreation, and transit stations activity also seems to have crested. -80 -40 0 40 80 120 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacy Parks Transit stations Workplaces Residential Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. UK Google Community Mobility % change from baseline, 7-dma (Last: Oct 09) -80 -40 0 40 80 120 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacy Parks Transit stations Workplaces Residential Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. Germany Google Community Mobility % change from baseline, 7-dma (Last: Oct 09) -80 -40 0 40 80 120 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacy Parks Transit stations Workplaces Residential Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. Japan Google Community Mobility % change from baseline, 7-dma (Last: Oct 09) -80 -40 0 40 80 120 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacy Parks Transit stations Workplaces Residential Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. Mexico Google Community Mobility % change from baseline, 7-dma (Last: Oct 09) Juan Manuel Herrera FX Strategist 416.866.6781 [email protected] -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 US Germany UK Japan Mexico Canada Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. Google Community Mobility: Workplaces % change from baseline, 7-dma (Last: Oct 09) -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 US Germany UK Japan Mexico Canada Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. Google Community Mobility: Retail % change from baseline, 7-dma (Last: Oct 09) -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 US Germany UK Japan Mexico Canada Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. Google Community Mobility: Transit Stns. % change from baseline, 7-dma (Last: Oct 09)
Transcript
Page 1: High Canada Google Community Mobility UK Google …...Google Search Trends • Google Trends data shows a marked decline in search interest for unemployment benefits in Canada—including

1

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday October 13, 2020

High-Frequency Dashboard: Tracking the Post-Lockdown Recovery (October 13, 2020)

Shaun Osborne

Chief FX Strategist

461.945.4538

[email protected]

Follow us on Twitter @SCOTIABANKFX

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada Google Community Mobility % change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Oct 09)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Oct 09)

Google Community Mobility

• Daily Google data tracking movement trends points to continued, albeit slowing, gains in economic activity but the re-imposition of some lockdown

measures in certain regions endangers the path of the recovery. While the end of strict quarantine periods led to an initial, strong, rebound in

activity the coming quarters will see growth returning to a smoother trajectory, with economic output unlikely to reach its pre-coronavirus level

before late-2021 given the economic impact and job losses resulting from the shutdowns and their spillovers. Activity in the UK seems to be

declining amid a recent quick increase in COVID-19 contagions and also following the end of the government’s restaurant subsidy scheme in late-

Aug. Canadian retail and recreation, and transit stations activity also seems to have crested.

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

UK Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Oct 09)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Germany Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Oct 09)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Japan Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Oct 09)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Mexico Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Oct 09)

Juan Manuel Herrera

FX Strategist

416.866.6781

[email protected]

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

US GermanyUK JapanMexico Canada

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Google Community Mobility: Workplaces

% change from baseline, 7-dma(Last: Oct 09) -100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

US GermanyUK JapanMexico Canada

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Google Community Mobility: Retail

% change from baseline, 7-dma(Last: Oct 09)

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

US GermanyUK JapanMexico Canada

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Google Community Mobility: Transit Stns.

% change from baseline, 7-dma(Last: Oct 09)

Page 2: High Canada Google Community Mobility UK Google …...Google Search Trends • Google Trends data shows a marked decline in search interest for unemployment benefits in Canada—including

2

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday October 13, 2020

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada and US:Topic "Unemployment Benefits"

respective peak = 100(Last: Oct 10)

Canada 7-day ma

US7-day ma

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada and US:Search Term "New Car"

respective peak = 100(Last: Oct 10)

Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada and US:Search Term "Realtor"

respective peak = 100(Last: Oct 10)

Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

Google Search Trends

• Google Trends data shows a marked decline in search interest for unemployment benefits in Canada—including searches for the federal

government’s other income support programmes, CERB and CESB; the recent uptick may follow from newly-announced employment insurance

programmes. In the US, searches for unemployment benefits have fallen to their lowest point since March after jumping in early August; which

may have reflected the end of supplementary unemployment benefits in late-July and a new round of layoffs as some businesses closed with the

rebound in cases in certain states. ‘Realtor’ search interest remains elevated amid ultra-low borrowing rates in Canada and the US but has eased

as the summer buying season passes. Searches for ‘covid test’ have surged in several countries while the recent jump in searches in the US is

likely related to the President’s positive diagnosis.

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada and US:Topic "Bankruptcy"

respective peak = 100(Last: Oct 10)

Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

UK FraIta MexUS Cda

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Search Term "Covid Test"

respective peak = 100, 7-day ma (Last: Oct 10)

New York Fed Economic Index

• The NY Fed’s economic index which

aggregates ten daily and weekly indices

points to a year-on-year decline in GDP of

around –4.5% in early Oct equivalent to a

4.2% q/q increase for Q4 (very early data)

following an estimated 22.3% expansion in

Q3 after Q2’s 32.9% q/q contraction.

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Source: FRBNY, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US FRBNY WeeklyEconomic Indexy/y % GDP grow th equivalent(Last: Oct 10)

US Gasoline Demand

• Weekly US gasoline demand currently sits at

around 5% below last year’s levels as a

higher share of workers work from home and

mobility is reduced amid contagion concerns.

Indeed New Job Postings

• Online daily job postings on Indeed remain

practically unchanged relative to 2019 in the

US and also in Canada—although there

appears to be some seasonal variation that

has led to a divergence from last year’s

trend.

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20 10/20

US (2019)

US (2020)

CA (2019)

CA (2020)

Source: Indeed, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Indeed New Job Postings

Feb 1 = 100, 7-dma (Last: Oct 2)

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 11/20

Source: DOE, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Gasoline Demandmn bpd(Last: Oct 2)

2020 (Latest = 96%of 2019)

2019

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada and US:Topic "Restaurant"

respective peak = 100(Last: Oct 10)

Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

Page 3: High Canada Google Community Mobility UK Google …...Google Search Trends • Google Trends data shows a marked decline in search interest for unemployment benefits in Canada—including

3

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday October 13, 2020

Scotiabank Canadian Merchant Data

• Scotiabank debit and credit card payments data compiled by our Economics, Customer Insights, and

Data & Analytics teams show that retail transactions across core merchant categories have rebounded

solidly in Canada from their April depths when compared to the same period last year. Total credit and

debit transactions now stand around their year-ago levels after falling by close to 30% y/y in April but

after showing a 5-10% increase in prior weeks; clothing, automotive, and health expenses are now

rising (or sit unchanged) year-on-year while restaurant expenses are also recently increasing/flat.

While the lockdown measures, travel bans, and fear of contagion have sharply hit the travel industry—

with transaction volumes down about 50% y/y as of a week ago—other sectors have seen an increase

in sales as people spend more time at home (e.g. computer software sales). For more details see

here. For questions contact Nikita Perevalov ([email protected]).

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Travel RestaurantsHardware AutomotiveClothing EntertainmentHealth Tota l

14-day ma of daily dollar volume oftransactions, y/y % (Last: Sep 25)

Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Customer Insights, Data & Analytics.

Scotiabank Canadian Transactions Data:Sales by Merchant Category

-50

0

50

100

150

200

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Telecom Computer network

Computer software Grocer ies

Digital goods Tota l

14-day ma of daily dollar volume oftransactions, y/y % (Last: Sep 25)

Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Customer Insights, Data & Analytics.

Scotiabank Canadian Transactions Data:Sales by Merchant Category

Scotia FX Risk Appetite Index

• Our daily risk appetite index—a factor of

financial risk variables such as CDS spreads

and market volatility—is trading just between

its 40– and 100-day moving averages.

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Mfg FinanceProf/Biz svcs Educ/HealthLeisure/Hosp Total

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Burning Glass,

Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Job Postings by Industry

% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Oct 2)

Affinity Solutions US Card Spending Data

• Affinity Solutions debit and credit card payments data show that retail sales in the US remain

slightly below their baseline in early-2020—but on a slight upward trajectory—with grocery

purchases remaining elevated as individuals spend more time at home while spending on

recreation and transportation remains quite depressed at ~ 50% lower than baseline, while

accommodation and food spending is about 25% lower. Spending on general merch. & apparel

has rebounded to only ~5% below baseline. The data show tentative signs that the stalling from

June through most of August has ended with the latest jump in expenses led by bottom-income-

quartile areas.

Burning Glass US Jobs Postings

• Weekly Burning Glass data show that US job

postings were down ~10% y/y, compared to

their pandemic trough of –41% in late-April.

Openings in the leisure and hospitality sector

appear to have been severely impacted by

the re-imposition of lockdown measures in

certain states with steep increases in COVID

-19 cases.

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

10/19 01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Scotiabank FX Strategy Risk Appetite Index

index, 2008-present avg. = 0(Last: Oct 13)

100DMA

Risk appetite index

200DMA

40DMA

-50

-25

0

25

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

TopMiddleBottom QuartileAll

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Aff inity Solutions,

Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Credit/Debit Card Spending by ZIP Code Median Income Quartile% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Sep 27)

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

HealthAcc/FoodGroceriesTrans/WHArts/Ent/RecGeneral/ApparelAll

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Aff inity Solutions,

Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Credit/Debit Card Spending by Sector

% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Sep 27)

Page 4: High Canada Google Community Mobility UK Google …...Google Search Trends • Google Trends data shows a marked decline in search interest for unemployment benefits in Canada—including

4

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday October 13, 2020

30

40

50

60

70

80

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: RTE, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

France Energy Demand

000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Oct 12)

latest: 102% of avg

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

Thousands

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: EIA, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Midwest Energy Demand

000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Oct 12)

latest: 90% of avg

22

27

32

37

42

47

52

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 11/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: TEPCO, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Japan Energy Demand

000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Oct 12)

latest = 94% of avg

10

12

14

16

18

20

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: SMARD, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Germany Energy Demand

000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Oct 12)

latest = 104% of avg.

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: IESO, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Ontario Energy Demand

000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Oct 12)

latest: 95% of avg

25

30

35

40

45

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

2018

2019

2020

2018-19 avg

Source: Cenace, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Mexico Energy Demand

000 mw h, daily max

(Last: Oct 11)

latest: 96% of avg

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

2018

2019

2020

2018-19 avg

Source: ONS, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Brazil Energy Demand

000 mw h, daily max (Last: Oct 8)

latest: 108% of avg

0

20

40

60

80

100

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20

China Germany UKJapan Mexico New ZealandUS Canada

Source: Hale, Webster, Petherick, Phillips, and Kira (2020). Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government , Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Incorporates public information on 17 indicators of government responses.

Oxford Lockdown Stringency Index

100 = strictest response Lockdown Stringency Index

• Oxford University's lockdown stringency index—a useful

guideline to track containment measures around the

globe—shows the impact of the imposition and removal of

containment measures imposed in New Zealand amid a

surge in cases in the Auckland area after the country

reached 102 days without community transmission.

Germany’s restrictions remain relatively loose compared to

its peers—despite a recent uptick in contagions—which will

likely result in an outperformance of the country's economy

within the euro-bloc. As countries (possibly) enter a second

virus wave it will be interesting to note whether restrictions

are significantly ramped up.

Energy Demand

• Hourly energy demand data shows that most economies are back to seasonal demand trends

with below-average temperatures possibly leading to a decrease in energy consumption amid

lower air conditioning usage (in Ontario and the US Midwest).

• In the case of Mexico however, energy demand remains consistently below its 2018-19 avg.

which may reflect a continued idling of economic activity, unlike ‘more normal’ demand levels

in Brazil, which is expected to lead the major Latin American economies in economic

performance this year.

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5

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday October 13, 2020

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

US m. vehicles & eq.US ex mveCanada m. vehicles & eq.Canada ex mve

Source: CN, AAR, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada and US Rail Merchandise Shipments

y/y % change in carloads(Last: Oct 3)

Rail Shipments

• Weekly rail shipments data shows that

shipments ex. motor vehicles and equipment

in Canada and the US roughly unchanged

when compared to last year but it is still too

early to tell whether the recent jump in the

data is sustained.

US Steel Production

• Weekly US steel production data suggests

that activity in the manufacturing and

construction sectors has not yet significantly

improved for steel mills to notably ramp up

production, which stands at about 82% of

year-ago output compared to 60% in early

May.

Shanghai Steel Inventories

• Chinese industrial output appears to have

recovered quickly as steel inventory levels in

the country are depleted from record-highs

as reflected by weekly Shanghai storage

data for both traders and steel mills. Steel

mill inventories are around year-ago levels.

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Source: Antaike, Mysteel, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Shanghai Steel Inventories

mn tonnes(Last: Oct 9)

2020traders

(LHS)

2019traders

(LHS)

mn tonnes(Last: Oct 9)

2020steel mills

(RHS)

2019steel mills

(RHS)1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Source: AISI, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Steel Production

mn short tonnes(Last: Oct 9)

2020(Latest = 82% of 2019)

2019

Germany Truck Mileage Index

• Daily truck mileage data for Germany—a

close indicator of industrial production—

shows a sharp rebound in economic activity

in Europe’s largest economy. As of Oct 5,

miles traveled by trucks in Germany were

about 5% above their year-ago level. This

series and other data again point to the

German economy recovering at a fast pace

as lockdown measures are lifted.

Retail Traffic

• ShopperTrak and Prodco retail foot traffic

data show that retail activity has stabilised in

France and Germany after a quick rebound

through May and June—though the latter is

seeing a decline of late. Retail traffic in the

US and the UK has also recently reversed

course, while it has accelerated in Hong

Kong.

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

UK France

Germany Hong Kong

US

Source: Shopper Trak, Prodco Analytics,Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Retail Foot Traffic

y/y % change(Last: w eek of Sep 28)

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20 10/20

Source: Destatis, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Germany Truck Mileage Index

y/y % change(Last: Oct 5)

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

10/19 01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

Source: Bundesbank, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Bundesbank Weekly Activity Index

3m/3m % implied change in real GDP(Last: Oct 11)

Latest: +3.3% 3m/3m

Bundesbank Activity Index

• The Bundesbank’s high-frequency economic

activity index estimates that the German

economy is expanding by 3.3% on a 3m/3m

basis, as of Oct 5, up from –6.2% roughly

three months ago, reflecting the increase in

activity in the country’s industrial and

services sectors. The most recent data,

however, shows a plateauing of growth as

we kick off the third quarter. Note that

Germany’s economy contracted by –9.7% in

Q2, compared to the Bundesbank WEI

estimate of -4.4% at end-June.

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6

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday October 13, 2020

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 11/20

Source: Flight Radar, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Flight Radar TrackedCommercial Flights Globally

000s per day(Last: Oct 12)

2020 7-dma(Latest = 58% of 2019)

2019 7-dma

TSA Checkpoint Throughput

• Daily US TSA shows that traffic through US

airports remains heavily subdued at about a

third when compared to 2019. The recent

rise in cases in the country may explain the

plateauing of US travel since early-June. As

domestic and international restrictions are

lifted we should see a more important pick-

up in travel activity.

Flight Radar Commercial Flights

• Daily flights data from Flight Radar points to

an unsurprising massive decline in air travel

(about 40-45% lower compared to early-

2020) owing to travel bans and other strict

restrictions on domestic and international

travel. As some countries eradicate (or

sharply limit the spread of the virus) some

travel will resume between ‘COVID-free’

nations.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20Source: TSA, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

TSA Checkpoint Travelers

000s passengers(Last: Oct 12)

2020 7-dma(Latest = 35% of 2019)

2019 7-dma

OpenTable Restaurant Visits

• Daily OpenTable restaurant foot traffic data

points to a solid rebound in restaurant visits

in Australia while other major economies see

reduced gains, notable the UK with the end

of the government’s “eat out to help out” 50%

discount scheme on Aug 31; the UK has also

recently imposed a 10pm curfew on the

hospitality sector. Certain regions of Quebec

and Ontario recently banned indoor dining as

well. Restaurant visits in Mexico and the US

are showing an upward trend.

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

DrivingWalkingTransitBaseline

Source: Apple, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada Apple Mobility Trends

routing requests, 7-dma(Last: Oct 10)

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Driving

Walking

Transit

Baseline

Source: Apple, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Apple Mobility Trends

routing requests, 7-dma(Last: Oct 10)

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Driving

Walking

Transit

Baseline

Source: Apple, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Germany Apple Mobility Trends

routing requests, 7-dma(Last: Oct 10)

Apple Mobility Trends

• Daily Apple data tracking Apple Maps routing requests shows that driving and walking mobility in Canada, the US, and Germany now exceeds

their respective baseline levels of mid-January. However, only in Germany has there been a significant increase in transit usage that points to a

faster return to economic normality than in North America as lockdown measures are lifted; see Oxford U’s lockdown stringency index that shows

Germany’s restrictions are now significantly more relaxed than in most of its peers. The recent decline in Canadian, US, and slightly less so in

German, mobility may have reflected a concern over increasing cases and/or a lull in mobility around the school year re-start.

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20

GermanyMexicoAustraliaUKCanadaUS

Source: Opentable, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

OpenTable Restaurant Visitsy/y% change (Last: Oct 11),7-day ma

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7

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday October 13, 2020

Dallas Fed State Mobility and Engagement Index, 7-day ma (Last: Oct 3)

Source: Dallas Fed, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is Jan 9, Jan-Feb avg. = 0 (difference from baseline).

WA (-42)

OR (-40)

CA (-50)

ID (-21)

NV (-38)

UT (-26)

AZ (-38)

MT (-22)

WY (-11)

CO (-33)

NM (-34)

ND (-30)

SD (-20)

NE (-25)

KS (-30)

OK (-23)

TX (-42)

MN (-46)

IA (-29)

MO (-28)

AR (-24)

LA (-35)

WI (-40)

IL (-47)

KY (-32)

TN (-27)

MS (-30)

MI (-31)

IN (-23)

OH (-28)

WV (-22)

NC (-34)

AL (-38)

PA (-36)

VA (-44)

SC (-29)

GA (-33)

NY (-44)

NJ (-53)

MD (-55)

DC (-59)

FL (-43)

VT (-37)

MA (-50)

CT (-46)

DE (-45)

ME (-25)

NH (-38)

RI (-42)

HI (-66)

AK (-21)

ALL (-38)

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8

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday October 13, 2020

New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases by US State and Canadian Province, 7-day ma (Last: Oct 12)

Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is March 3.

WA

OR

CA

HI

ID

NV

UT

AZ

MT

CO

NM

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX

MN

IA

MO

AR

LA

KY

TN

MS

OH PA

VA

SC

GA

MD

NJ

NY MA

VT

CT

DE

NH

ME

RIWY

WV

NC

AL

DC

MI

IN

IL

WI

FL

BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS

NLPE

AK

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9

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday October 13, 2020

Card Spending, Opportunity Insights Affinity Solutions, 7-day ma (Last: Sep 27)

Source: Opportunity Insights, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is Jan 24, Jan = 0 (% difference from baseline).

WA (-3.1)

OR (-4.0)

CA (-9.8)

ID (9.4)

NV (-7.7)

UT (-11.4)

AZ (-3.1)

MT (6.6)

WY (-0.2)

CO (-11.6)

NM (-2.8)

ND (-1.2)

SD (-4.7)

NE (-3.0)

KS (-0.8)

OK (3.5)

TX (-2.8)

MN (-3.5)

IA (-8.5)

MO (5.1)

AR (-2.1)

LA (5.1)

WI (-5.7)

IL (-5.5)

KY (5.4)

TN (0.8)

MS (7.2)

MI (14.8)

IN (6.0)

OH (3.0)

WV (12.6)

NC (-3.6)

AL (4.2)

PA (6.3)

VA (0.2)

SC (2.3)

GA (-2.9)

NY (-1.7)

NJ (-2.3)

MD (2.3)

DC (-27.9)

FL (-2.5)

VT (2.7)

MA (5.0)

CT (-6.7)

DE (-2.5)

ME (0.3)

NH (5.6)

RI (10.6)

HI (-11.3)

AK (-6.0)

ALL (-3.0)

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GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday October 13, 2020

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communication and has not been prepared by a member of the research department of Scotiabank, it is solely for the use of sophisticated institutional investors, and this

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