High Energy, Low Pollution.

Why we must bring forward the Actinide Age

I'm from Brisbane, Australia and I'm currently visiting India as part of a

yoga course. The reason I'm emailing you, to be honest, is

because I'm scared. Scared of what lies ahead for the future of our

planet. I knew when visiting India that I would suffer some form of culture shock but in no way was I

prepared for the air pollution. There is no escaping it forming a cloud

over the entire country and out to sea.

It is virtually a waste land.

Callum, 18 March 2013

Why?

As of 2009, majority of Indians still use traditional fuels such as dried cow dung, agricultural wastes, and firewood as cooking fuel. (Atamand et al 2009)

Energ

y k

g o

il equiv

ale

nt c

apita

-1 Popula

tion, m

illions o

f people

Low in

come

Lower

-middle inco

me

Uppe

r middle inco

me

High

inco

me

0

2000

4000

6000

0

1000

2000

3000

Energy consumption per capita

Population

Source: United Nations Population Division; World Bank (World Development Indictors)

Tota

l energ

y consu

mptio

n k

g o

il equiv

ale

nt

Chad

Guinea

-Bis

sau

Puerto

Ric

o

Sudan

Nicar

agua

Alban

ia

Indones

ia

Botswan

a

Mex

ico

Croat

ia

Bulgar

ia

Irela

nd

Korea,

Rep

.

Norway

United A

rab E

mira

tes

0

2.01012

4.01012

6.01012

Current population x current percapita energy consumption: EC

Source: United Nations Population Division; WorldBank (World Development Indicators); UnitedNations Statistics Division

Tota

l energ

y consu

mptio

n k

g o

il equiv

ale

nt

Chad

Guinea

-Bis

sau

Puerto

Ric

o

Sudan

Nicar

agua

Alban

ia

Indones

ia

Botswan

a

Mex

ico

Croat

ia

Bulgar

ia

Irela

nd

Korea,

Rep

.

Norway

United A

rab E

mira

tes

0

2.01012

4.01012

6.01012

Current population x high incomeper capita energy consumption: EJ

Source: United Nations Population Division; WorldBank (World Development Indicators); UnitedNations Statistics Division

Tota

l energ

y consu

mptio

n k

g o

il equiv

ale

nt

Chad

Guinea

-Bis

sau

Puerto

Ric

o

Sudan

Nicar

agua

Alban

ia

Indones

ia

Botswan

a

Mex

ico

Croat

ia

Bulgar

ia

Irela

nd

Korea,

Rep

.

Norway

United A

rab E

mira

tes

0

2.01012

4.01012

6.01012

2050 population x high income percapita energy consumption: EJ

Source: United Nations Population Division; WorldBank (World Development Indicators); UnitedNations Statistics Division

Energ

y k

g o

il equiv

ale

nt c

apita

-1

EC EJ EUJ0

1.01013

2.01013

3.01013

4.01013

5.01013

>2 x EC

>3 x EC

Source: United Nations Population Division; World Bank (World Development Indictors)

82 % Fossil

10 %Biofuelsand otherwaste

5 % Nuclear

2 % Hydro1 % Other

Source: IEA WorldEnergy Statistics 2013

Coal

Oil

Gas

Today’s horror…In 2012 • Household air pollution: 4.3 million deaths (cooking smoke)• Ambient air pollution: 3.7 million deaths

The world’s “single highest health risk”(World Health Organisation 2014)

… and tomorrow’s hazard

Source: IPCC WGIII AR5 2014

“Global temperature increases of ~4°C or more above late-20th-century levels, combined with increasing food demand, would pose large risks to food security globally and regionally” (high confidence).

Source: IPCC WGII AR5 2014

HIGH ENERGY

LOW POLLUTION

DECARBONISED

Energ

y d

ensity

as

heat v

alu

e G

J t-1

Fire wood Coal Oil Liquid gas0

10

20

30

40

50

Source: World Energy Council 2013 (conversion factors)

“Ash from the burnt biomass is assumed to be returned to the agricultural land to avoid long-term nutrient depletion of the soils on which the crops are grown”. (Turner, Elliston et al. 2013)

“We examined …planting of 5% of cleared farmland (~ 2.4 Mha) by 2030, and extension of the area to 10% (~ 4.8 Mha) by 2050”.(Crawford, Jovanovic et al. 2012, CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship)

En

erg

y kg

oil

equ

ival

ent

cap

ita

-1 Po

pu

la tion

, billio

ns o

f peo

ple

Least

dev

eloped

countri

es

Low inco

me

Lower-m

iddle

inco

me

Upper m

iddle

inco

me

High in

com

e0

2000

4000

6000

0

1000

2000

3000

Energypercapita

Population

“Basic”, “Modern” or…?

“There could be considerable interim benefits from starting non-electrified households on a low-capacity supply for certain hours of the day as a step towards a longer-term solution.” (The Secretary General's Advisory Group on Energy and Climate Change 2010)

In the ten years to 2000, there were 240 million new household connections to electricity. This will continue to 2030.(The Secretary General's Advisory Group on Energy and Climate Change 2010)

High Energy

Low Pollution

Decarbonised

Desalination

Transport Electrification

Agricultural intensification

Synthetic Fuels

Materials recovery

Reforestation

Energ

y d

ensity

as

heat v

alu

e G

J t-1

Fire wood Coal Oil Liquid gas0

10

20

30

40

50

Energ

y d

ensity

as

heat v

alu

e G

J t-1

Fire wood Coal Oil Liquid gas Uranium (LWR)1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

Source: World Energy Council 2013 (conversion factors)