High level seminar on the implementation of the

System of National Accounts 2008 in the GCC countries

Muscat, Oman, 27 May 2010

United Nations Statistics Division

The financial crisis – The need for high frequency indicators

Introduction

Consultations on the Financial and Economic Crisis

The G20 Summit of April, 2009

International seminars organised by United Nations Statistics Division and Eurostat

Consultations on the crisis

A series on meetings at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009

2008 SNA the overarching framework for economic statistics, able to incorporates measurement issues arising from the financial crises

There was not a lack of information Policy makers need the early detection of turning

points of financial and economic trends Remedy data gaps that the crisis has revealed Improve the availability, periodicity and timeliness of

high frequency statistics in accessible and analytically useful formats

International coordinated response The G20 Summit of April, 2009 called for:

the UN, working with other global institutions, to establish an effective mechanism to monitor the impact of the crisis on the poorest and most vulnerable

the IMF and FSB to explore information gaps and provide appropriate proposals for strengthening data collection.

Inter Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics

◦ IMF (Chair), BIS, ECB, Eurostat, OECD, UN, IMF (Chair), BIS, ECB, Eurostat, OECD, UN, WB established the IAG to coordinate work WB established the IAG to coordinate work to explore data gaps and strengthen data to explore data gaps and strengthen data collectioncollection

◦The IAG Group addresses key issues related to information gaps on risks

in the financial sector, data on international financial networks vulnerabilities of domestic economies to

shocks and the development of the website on Principle

Global Indicators (PGI)

International seminars on High Frequency Indicators

UNSD and Eurostat in February 2009 initiated a series of three international seminars.

The purpose of the seminars is to formulate an international statistical response to the economic and financial crisis for improved monitoring of the rapid and systemic changes in the global real economy and the financial markets and the impacts on vulnerable countries and population groups.

It is expected that the series of seminars will recommend an agreed data template for high frequency statistics, related metadata and related communication and dissemination methods and techniques

International seminars on High Frequency Indicators

The first meeting took place in Ottawa, May 2009, which discussed the development of a data template of high frequency indicators;

Ottawa seminar identified a data template with 12 categories

National accounts, production and turnover indicators, prices, labour market indicators, sectoral indicators for the external, financial, government, non-financial and household sector, financial and real estate market indicators, and economic sentiment indicators

Global assessment to determine the availability, timeliness and dissemination of high frequency indicators

Global assessment of Ottawa template

Overview of response

GroupingNumber of responses

Number in group

Percentage of 2008 GDP

Percentage of 2008

population Response rate

World 101 211 87.8 80.2 47.9

High income 24 29 89.5 90.2 82.8

Middle income 53 103 89.4 91.4 51.5

Other 24 79 55.2 21.5 30.4

Only 3 of the 6 countries responded to the assessment in Oct 2010. The other promised to give it to me after the seminar.

The compilation of high frequency indicators is generally weak in the GCC region.

Response by GCC Countries

International seminars on High Frequency Indicators

The second meeting took place in Scheveningen, December 2009, which discussed a global assessment of the Ottawa data template and the development of methodology and guidance on high frequency indicators.

Scheveningen seminarFive themes:

◦ the role of sentiment indicators in tracking economic trends;

◦ the role of composite indicators in tracking business cycles;

◦ flash estimates of gross domestic product; ◦ the analytical framework for assessing rapid

economic changes; and ◦ communication and dissemination of indicators

Outcome: ◦ To facilitate the work on the outcome of the

seminar five work groups were formed

Work groups The Working Group on Economic Sentiment

Indicators will conduct a global survey on sentiment indicators and analyse existing practices. Moreover, UNSD will establish a knowledge platform on economic sentiment indicators.

The Working Group on Composite Indicators will undertake the review of existing guidelines on the collection, compilation and application of composite indicators. ◦ Colloquium – Sept 2010. ◦ CIRET – Oct 2010

Work groups

The Working Group on Flash GDP will advance the work on terminology, conceptualisation and purpose of flash GDP estimates.

The Working Group on the Data Template and Analytical Indicators will finalise the data template, meta data and related analytical indicators.

The Working Group on Communication and Dissemination will create a knowledge base and review the availability of existing visualisation tools and methodological guidance.

Third International Seminar on High Frequency Statistics Second week of November 2010 Purpose

◦ Discuss the work of the working groups◦ To prepare a report to the UNSC on

an agreed statistical framework of HFI international comparability of HFI, the related analytical framework for monitoring

early warning and business cycle indicators the communication and dissemination of HFI

Conclusion

The financial crisis revealed the need for HFI for the early detection of changes in economic trends

The availability of structural and annual data tell us about the past

The need is for information about the present This will facilitate more timely policy responses Data collection practises need to be adapted to

facilitate the dissemination of HFI HFI are also relevant for expanding the scope and

detail of the national accounts

Useful links

Reports of the previous meetings:Ottawahttp://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/workshops/2009/ottawa/ac188-2.asp

Scheveningenhttp://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/workshops/2009/netherlands/ac202-2.asp

SNA News and Notes Issue 29http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/sna/nn29-en.pdf

Thank You