Higher education in times of uncertainty and

turbulence: leadership, innovation,

transformation

SYLVIA SCHWAAG SERGER, NOVEMER 4, 2020

Internationalization

and international

collaboration

Technology

Innovation

Growth

China

Technological

sovereignty, strategicautonomy,

decoupling, dual circulation

Reciprocity,

pushback, technologywars

Naîveté, national

security, espionage

Techno-

authoritarianismCyber warsSurveillance state

A new world?

COVID19

Source: University of Florida

Source: Columbia University

Source: The Toronto Star

• Inequality

• Polarization

• Nationalism

• Geopolitical tensionsSource: New York Times

Source: CNN

Source: qz

International higher education in turmoil

https://siepr.stanford.edu/research/publications/recession-graduates-effects-unlucky

Changing and uncertain

context

Runaway world

• Knowledge generation and learning happening

increasingly outside universities

• Increasingly urgent societal challenges and ’wicked

problems’

• Complexity and uncertainty

• Rise of new actors in research, higher education and

innovation

• Democracy, science and international collaboration are

being questioned and threatened

• Covid has accentuated many of our problems and

frictions (not caused them)!!

Before Covid

• Increasingly urgent societal challenges (eg climate change) => Need for transformative / systemic change => increasingdirectionality in innovation policy (incl missions)

• Disruptive technologies and related uncertainties

• Science and technology increasingly linked to and interacting withother policy areas (geopolitics, trade, security, democracy, ethics, privacy and human rights…) => increasing complexity

• Increasing international friction, decoupling, concerns re. technological sovereignty…

• Increasing inequalities/polarization within democracies

=> Covid further underlined and reinforced these trends (did not cause them)

Covid and its

consequences

Covid and its consequences

• Tragedy and severe disruptions to daily life, economy,

society

• Risk of long-term economic crisis (unemployment, public

finances) and social upheaval

• The first of a succession of crises? Ushering in an era of

uncertainty and instability?

• BUT: many problems existed before!

Possible positive consequences

• Digitalization of higher

education

• More support for science

(for now?)

• Hightened sense of urgency

promotes necessary and

transformative change

• Crisis to propel certain

sectors / policy areas

forward? (eg public sector,

academia, healthcare,

digitalization, sustainability)

• Increasing focus on and support for science and education

(temporary or long-term?)

• Increases in public spending, recovery & stimulus measures

• Concern over future funding and students (with much more

severe effects in Anglo-Saxon countries)

• Does not encourage risk-taking or ambition?

• Individual vs. organizational level

What response to the next crisis?

Increasing funding for healthcare, research and higher

education: risk of further postponing necessary reforms?

Importance of leadership

Short term effects of Covid: academia

Medium-term effects

• Covid, crisis and complexity

– reveals challenges for science communication and policy

advice (lack of translational, multidisciplinary abilities)

– Further accentuates tensions stemming from different

timeframes for academia and surrounding society

– Calls for more agile decision-making

• Funding:

– R&D and education budgets?

– International students and tuition income?

• Support for, focus / expectations on science

• Continuous crisis?

• Leadership and institutional agility

Increase in student places in 2020 (%)

Denmark 6.8

Finland 6.8

Norway 6.6

Sweden 4.0

Sweden:

• significant increase in

public research funding

• Increase in international

studentsBUT

• Signs that government is

no longer looking primarily

to universities to provide

the education societyneeds!

US (and to some extent UK, Australia,

Canada):

• Freshmen enrolment down 16% (undergrad

-4%), International students: down 11%

(undergraduate) • Huge revenue losses

• Loss of faith in higher education institutions

Are these challenges endemic to the US

or warning signs of things to come?!

How will we utilize our advantageousposition?

FoU-utgifter i universitets- og høgskolesektoren etter utgiftstype

FoU-utgifter i Norge etter sektor

Source: Forskningsradet

Indikatorrapporten 2020

Source: https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/d440e77474de4ee4b4a046995db2b5d0/forskningsbarometeret -2018-figur-03.pdf

https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/d440e77474de4ee4b4a046995db2b5d0/forskningsbarometeret-2018-figur-03.pdf

European (Nordic?) universities: time to

shine?

• Stable (increasing?) funding (national and European)

• Strong public support and interest in science

• Less bad at increasing inequality (than US?)

BUT:

• ”we are doing the same as everyone else so we must be

doing the right thing”

• ”we are not so far behind the leaders… but we are not as

good at planning for the future”

• Example Högskoleprovet

• Have not shown agility, leadership, ambition to assume a

leading role in shaping our society?

How are universities responding?

• Slowly, and defensively (defending academia against society)?

– Lifelong learning

– Digitalization

– Diversity

– Multi- and interdisciplinarity

– Strategic renewal of education

– Societal interaction

• Advances in digitalization and pace of change in response to Covid –

change driven by necessity, urgency, crisis

• Protect-prepare-transform?

“The 21st century is going to be increasing in speed in terms of acceleration of

change, globalisation, and disruption of all types – social, economical,

technological, biological… And you tell me whether the average college [where]

faculty sit around in rooms and [wear] dark robes [is] going to be the best way to

educate in a full-scale democracy going forward”. (Michael Crow, President ASU)

How are universities preparing society for

complexity, crisis, uncertainty and transformation?

• Education?

• Research?

• Policy advice?

• Collaboration?

What will happen?

• The strong universities will emerge even stronger (in terms

of funding, branding and educational offering), others will

struggle and perhaps even disappear (part. in the UK and

the US)

• Initial increase in funding for research and education not

certain/likely to continue as governments have to fight

continuous crises

Long-term consequences?

• Threat to the global enterprise of science and an

international science system based on openness,

reciprocity, excellence?

• ”Global crises are generally followed by sudden,

sharp reconfigurations of global power associated

with technological mastery” (Naughton 2020)

• Universities’ ability to respond will affect their

legitimacy, identity and autonomy in a turbulent world

Crisis, complexity and uncertainty:

challenge and opportunity?!

• Many problems (in society and in academia) are not new… Whatis new is uncertainty combined with complexity and crisis

• Uncertainty is not the same as inability to know or prepare: Importance of linking S&T policy and foresight

• A significant opportunity?

– Increasing interest in science

– Stronger mandate to take informed risks and to exerciseleadership

– Sense of urgency promotes agility (without necessarilyundermining accountability)

– Broad consensus to build back better, drive overdue changeand transformation

• A historic opportunity to shape the future we want?

Is there anything we can predict?

Urgency, growing challenges and conflicts, and continual crises(climate change, disasters, economic crises) but also unique windowof opportunity

Increasing focus (incl resources) and demands on highereducation, possibly followed by…

…reduced budgets for research and innovation?

Transformation driven more within respective policy areas, ratherthan through research and innovation policy (eg healthcare, environment & climate, social policy)?

New and greater demands on science and higher education to support and advise policy in the face of complexity, urgency and crisis!

More important than ever that we try to take charge of ourfuture now!

Conclusions

• As crises and turbulence deepen we can expect increasing

pressures on universities to contribute more visibly and

quickly to tackling societal challenges and transformation

• Risk of reduced international cooperation and mobility, and

growing geopolitical friction and nationalism

• Potential for European (Nordic) universities to strengthen

their role in internationalization, policy advice, curating

knowledge for society and development, preparing

students (and society) for complexity

• Significant immediate and long-term consequences

universities and their interaction with society

• From ’parking people’ to ’shaping society’?

Nordic (European?) universities

• Function solidly (well?) in times of stability, popular support

and continuous budget increases

• Find it hard to prioritize (particularly ’down-prioritize’),

position or differentiate themselves (particularly

internationally);

• Are not known for being ’agile organizations’;

Little internal or external pressure or mandate for change

What happens in times of crisis and uncertainty (both for

the sector and the country)? Are universities up to the

task?

Agility Accountability

Finding a good union between these two has become

even more important in these times of uncertainty,

complexity and turbulence

• Navigating and helping societies navigate in times of

uncertainty and crisis

• Securing universities’ long-term identity, legitimacy

and autonomy

Agility Accountability

Ways to the 21st century university

• Increasing cooperation (education and research) and

differentiation

• Digitalization for excellence, accessibility, personalized

education and competitiveness

• Strategic renewal of education: preparing students for

complexity, leadership and transformation

• Seriously embracing online lifelong learning

• Generating and curating knowledge for society

• Moving in and out of university throughout one’s life and

career (students and staff): from the 5-year program to the

50-year curriculum

“The way we are functioning now as a society is not

sustainable. There is too much potential for addressing

that issue in higher education for us not to do that. As

we are evolving I think we are going to have to take

ownership of our role in repairing our society” (Michael Sorrell, President Paul Quinn College, October 14, 2020 Milken Institute)

Thank you!SYLVIA.SCHWAAG_SERGER@REKTOR.LU.SE

mailto:Sylvia.schwaag_serger@rektor.lu.se