Highlight the progress and improvements of the storm tide models (including inundation)

ObjectivesObjectives

Developments are proposed in effective operational numerical storm tide prediction facility for forecasting the total water level by including storm surge, breaking wave set-up and astronomical tides

Ocean WavesOcean Waves

MWLWave Setup SWL

ExtremeExtremeWindsWinds

CurrentsCurrents

Wave Runup

HAT

MSL datumExpectedHigh Tide

StormStormTideTide

Surge

after Harper (2001)

Progress in Storm Tide Modelling and ForecastingProgress in Storm Tide Modelling and Forecasting

There has been little new formally published material on the subject of the modelling and forecasting of storm tide since the IWTC-V in 2002. The reason for this is possibly that:

• the hydrodynamics of storm tide generation and propagation is relatively well established

• accuracy of predictions is largely limited by the meteorological inputs, and

• implementation of new regional models is limited by lack of resources and data

Vertically integrated hydrodynamic equations Vertically integrated hydrodynamic equations governing the motion in the seagoverning the motion in the sea

The numerical solution procedure is either finite The numerical solution procedure is either finite difference or finite elementdifference or finite element

The models are preferably nonlinear and are forced The models are preferably nonlinear and are forced by wind stress and by quadratic bottom frictionby wind stress and by quadratic bottom friction

The treatment of the coastal boundaries in the most The treatment of the coastal boundaries in the most of the models involves a procedure that leads to a of the models involves a procedure that leads to a realistic representation and incorporates a detailed realistic representation and incorporates a detailed bathymetric specification in the important coastal bathymetric specification in the important coastal regionsregions

Some of the recent Australian efforts are:Some of the recent Australian efforts are:

•Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) has Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) has recently adopted the SEAtide probabilistic model to recently adopted the SEAtide probabilistic model to upgrade its forecasting system for the Northern upgrade its forecasting system for the Northern Australian coastline.Australian coastline.

•Queensland TCWC has a similar rapid assessment Queensland TCWC has a similar rapid assessment parametric storm tide model covering the east coast.parametric storm tide model covering the east coast.

An example of the SEAtide model probabilistic storm tide output

To take into account the influence of tTo take into account the influence of tropical cyclone ropical cyclone track on the occurrence of storm surge, some track on the occurrence of storm surge, some

National Meteorological Services utilize ensemble or National Meteorological Services utilize ensemble or probabilistic methods in storm tide forecast probabilistic methods in storm tide forecast (Ensemble (Ensemble methods in methods in storm tide modeling, eg, storm tide modeling, eg, JMA) JMA)

Annual mean position errors of 24-, 48- and 72-hour operational typhoon track forecasts (From JMA, 2005)

Maximum surge envelopes simulated with different typhoon tracks. (unit: cm) (a) Typhoon track used in the simulations. (b) The case in

which a typhoon takes the westernmost path. (c) The same as (b) but for the easternmost path

NOAA, U.S.A. starts the provision of “ The experimental Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge product” on their web page since the beginning of this hurricane season

Examples of “The experimental Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge products”(From NOAA web site, http:www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge) (a) 10 Percent exceedance height, (b) Probability of storm surge exceeding 5 feed above normal tide

Location specific high resolution models developed Location specific high resolution models developed at IIT are transferred to at IIT are transferred to Bangladesh, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand, for Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand, for operational storm surge forecastingoperational storm surge forecasting

Maungtaw cyclone (1994)

• Estimated Surge: 4.0 m

• Computed Surge: 4.7 m

Samar*

*

Catarman

Philippines Sea

South China Sea Sea

Olongapa *

Manila *

Naga *

*Lagaspi

2006 Xangsane Typhone

“Remote forcing contribution to storm-induced sea level rise during

Hurricane Dennis” Steven L. Morey, Stephen Baig, Mark A. Bourassa, Dmitry S. Dukhovskoy, and James J. O’Brien

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L19603

Workshops and Hands-on Forecast Training Laboratories Storm Surge and

Wave Forecasting

(WMO/JCOMM Initiatives)

The overall aim of the workshop was to enable these countries, through technological and scientific progress and mutual cooperation, to establish and/or to improve their systems of marine forecasting, in particular with regards to coastal storm surges connected with tropical cyclones

• JCOMM/TCP Workshop on South China Sea Storm Surge, Wave and Ocean Circulation Forecasting (Hanoi, Viet Nam 21 – 24 January 2002)

• The Second Workshop on South China Sea Storm Surges, Waves and Ocean Circulation Forecasting “A Hands- on Ocean Forecast Training Laboratory for the South China Sea Region” Kuantan, Malaysia, 15 – 19 September 2003

• Third Regional Workshop on Storm Surge and Wave Forecasting – A Hands-on Forecast Training Laboratory (Beijing, China, 25 to 29 July 2005)

• Fourth Regional Workshop on Storm Surge and Wave Forecasting - A Hands-on Forecast Training Laboratory (Manila, 11 to 15 September 2006)

Combined Modelling and Data Management Workshops

Organized by: IODE (UNESCO/IOC International Oceanographic Data & Information Exchange

Committee) and JCOMM

• UNESCO/IOC Project Office for IODE, Oostende, Belgium, September 1-11, 2005

• UNESCO/IOC Project Office for IODE, Oostende, Belgium, October 7-14, 2006

Storm surge forecasting and warning systems are not Storm surge forecasting and warning systems are not adequate in many nations. Particular attention is adequate in many nations. Particular attention is urgently needed to develop models for different coastal urgently needed to develop models for different coastal zoneszones

Storm surge predictions are readily affected by the Storm surge predictions are readily affected by the error in tropical cyclone predictions in terms both of error in tropical cyclone predictions in terms both of their tracks and of intensities. Taking into account this, their tracks and of intensities. Taking into account this, ensemble (-like) and probabilistic methods and outputs ensemble (-like) and probabilistic methods and outputs should be considered to use in operational storm should be considered to use in operational storm surge forecast surge forecast

As mesoscale NWP models with high resolution are As mesoscale NWP models with high resolution are having ability to solve tropical cyclone fields, the use of having ability to solve tropical cyclone fields, the use of the results of these NWP models in tropical storm surge the results of these NWP models in tropical storm surge modeling should be investigated modeling should be investigated The development of robust and reliable operational The development of robust and reliable operational technique for prediction of storm surge – based on technique for prediction of storm surge – based on sound hydrodynamics in numerical models. Particular sound hydrodynamics in numerical models. Particular attention needs to be given to the coastal regions attention needs to be given to the coastal regions taking into account the complex coastal orientation taking into account the complex coastal orientation and estuaries, and this includes their massive and estuaries, and this includes their massive freshwater dischargefreshwater discharge

Total water level is the combined effect of storm surge, Total water level is the combined effect of storm surge, wave set-up and high tide, and so accurate prediction wave set-up and high tide, and so accurate prediction of wind waves and tidal height together with their of wind waves and tidal height together with their nonlinear interaction with the storm surge in the model nonlinear interaction with the storm surge in the model is essentialis essential

It would also be appropriate to store all the pertinent It would also be appropriate to store all the pertinent data when a given storm affects an area, i.e., data when a given storm affects an area, i.e., inundation maps, high-water marks, etc. It is also inundation maps, high-water marks, etc. It is also important to mention that now GIS (Geographical important to mention that now GIS (Geographical Information System) work is a common tool for most Information System) work is a common tool for most researchers, the design and creation of a GIS that researchers, the design and creation of a GIS that contains precipitation, stream flow, and hurricane track contains precipitation, stream flow, and hurricane track data would be very valuable data would be very valuable

Capacity building and development of human Capacity building and development of human resources in all facets of the storm surge problem is resources in all facets of the storm surge problem is the most important area, which should be given the most important area, which should be given great attention to achieve self–sufficiency by the great attention to achieve self–sufficiency by the nations, which lack expertisenations, which lack expertise