Highlights from the 7th
International Carbon Dioxide Conference,
September 2005
Nir Krakauer
Outline
• About the conference• Some highlights
– I. Recent trends in carbon fluxes– II. New observation platforms– III. Prognoses under global warming
• Questions, comments, etc.
Conference in brief
• ~400 attendees• First ICDC held in the States• In “Boulder” The Omni Interlochen Resort
– Lots of catered food, golf courses– little nightlife
• Fancy, glitchy interactive website– Most presentations up at https://www.icdc7.com/
• NOAA makes little effort to alert the press• Lots and lots of talks to sit through!
• + Tim Whorf• Organized the original
ICDC• Posthumous
presentationsUSGRCP; UCSD
Dave Keeling (1928-2005) is remembered
Official themes
• 1) The fate of fossil fuel emissions• 2) Land use and the terrestrial carbon
cycle• 3) Carbon cycle response to
environmental change• 4) Effects of high CO2 on land and ocean
ecosystems• 5) Managing the carbon cycle
My poster
• “Carbon isotope evidence for the latitudinal distribution of air-sea gas exchange”
• Regional mean gas exchange rates can be estimated from ocean bomb carbon-14 data and checked against ocean carbon-13 and total C absorption
• See me, or watch out for my defense talk
Highlights:I. Recent trends in carbon fluxes
The ocean sink
• Estimates are converging based on– 1990s ocean carbon system measurements
(JGOFS) used to estimate the anthropogenic increase in ocean dissolved carbon concentrations (e.g. Nicholas Gruber, UCLA)
– Atmospheric oxygen measurements that differentiate between ocean and vegetation uptake (e.g. Roberta Hahn, Scripps)
• 2.0-2.4 Pg C / year for the 1990s• Future? Interannual variability?
DECADAL CHANGES IN OCEAN CARBON UPTAKEDECADAL CHANGES IN OCEAN CARBON UPTAKE
C.L. Sabine, R.A. Feely, G.C. Johnson, R. Wanninkhof, F.J. Millero, A.G. Dickson,
N. Gruber, R. Key and P. Covert
WOCE/JGOFS/OACES Global CO2 Survey
~72,000 sample locations collected in the 1990s
DIC ± 2 µmol kg-1
TA ± 4 µmol kg-1
Mapped Inventory = 106±17 Pg C
+ marginal seas = 6± 6 Pg C
+ Arctic Ocean = 6± 6 Pg C
Total Inventory = 118±19 Pg C
Sabine et al., 2004
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/oceans/glodap/Glodap_home.htm
Anthropogenic CO2 Column Inventory (mol/m2)
Is Ocean Carbon Uptake Changing with Time?If so, how do we monitor and understand these changes?
OSP
KNOT
HOTBATS ESTOC
One way is through long time-series measurements of carbon
NZTS
Another approach is CLIVAR/CO2 Repeat Hydrography Goal: To quantify decadal changes in the inventory and transport of heat, fresh water,
carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbon tracers and related parameters in the oceans.
Approach: Reoccupy a subset of the WOCE/JGOFS global survey cruises approximately every decade. The US has identified 19 cruises to be run over 10 years.
Achievements: The U.S. CLIVAR/CO2 Repeat Hydrography Program has completed 6 of 19 cruises and is on schedule. For further details see: http://ushydro.ucsd.edu/
A16NJune ‘03
A20Sept. ‘03
A22Oct. ‘03
P2June. ‘04
P16SJan. ‘05
A16SJan. ‘05
U.S. CLIVAR/CO2 Repeat Hydrography
CO2 Accumulation Rate on Isopycnal Surfaces along 30°NBased on P2 2004 - 1994 Comparison
Vertically Integrated Accumulation: 1.1±0.1 mol m-2 yr-1
Preliminary results suggest that North Atlantic accumulation rate over the last decade may have been about half of the North Pacific accumulation rate.
This appears to be a change from the historical operation of these basins.
Water columnWater columnAccumulationAccumulation~ 1.1 mol/m~ 1.1 mol/m22/yr/yr
Water columnWater columnAccumulationAccumulation~ .6 mol/m~ .6 mol/m22/yr/yr
SurfaceSurfaceAccumulationAccumulation
1.3 1.3 µµmol/kg/yrmol/kg/yr
SurfaceSurfaceAccumulationAccumulation
0.7 0.7 µµmol/kg/yrmol/kg/yr
NAO-
NAO+
PDO+
Net carbon fluxes from vegetation
• Based on the geographical pattern of station CO2 concentrations, the TransCom 3 and other inversions suggest that in the early/mid 1990s, plants in the northern midlatitudes took up 1-2 Pg C / year
• Is this still happening?• (The interannual variability of sinks in such
inversions may be more reliable than their absolute size)
A Decline in the Northern Hemisphere CO2 Sink
from 1992 - 2003John Miller1, Pieter Tans1, Jim White2, Ken Masarie1, Tom Conway1, Bruce
Vaughn2, Jim Randerson3, Neil Suits4
1. NOAA/CMDL, Boulder2. INSTAAR, University of Colorado, Boulder3. U. of California, Irvine4. Colorado State University, Fort Collins
Meridional CO2 Gradient
19981992
2003
Gradient increasing; big jump from 1998-2003
MBLContinentalHi-Altitude
Fits to MBL
Ocean
Land
Total
18 – 53 N
Mid-latitude non-fossil Carbon Fluxes
∆=1.5 Pg (1015g) C
• Changes in the terrestrial biosphere appear to drive the trend.•Biosphere trend is relatively insensitive to C3/C4 and other parameters.
p<0.01p<0.06
Conclusions
1. NH carbon sink shrunk from 1992 – 2003 by ~1.5 billion tons of C; probably driven by land.
2. Regardless of whether this persists, it demonstrates that surface uptake can change rapidly.
3. Analysis of climate anomalies hints at drought as a driver of variability in temperate NH.
Area carbon inventories
• An alternate way of quantifying carbon uptake of plants is to measure it at small scales– CO2 eddy covariance, etc., from towers,
and/or– Changes in the number and size of trees, etc.,
in sample plots• This is now being done for many forested
regions, esp. in N America and Europe
Seventh Carbon Dioxide Conference Seventh Carbon Dioxide Conference –– Boulder,Boulder, September 25September 25--30, 200530, 2005
The Amazon and the modern carbon cycle
Jean Ometto Jean Ometto (1)(1), Antonio Nobre, Antonio Nobre(2)(2) , , Humberto RochaHumberto Rocha(3)(3) , Paulo, Paulo ArtaxoArtaxo(4)(4), ,
Luiz MartinelliLuiz Martinelli(1)(1)
(1)(1)CENA/USP, CENA/USP, (2)(2)INPE/INPA, INPE/INPA, (3)(3)IAG/USP, IAG/USP, (4)(4)IF/USPIF/USP
Acknowledgments: The ICDC7 Scientific Committee and the ICDC7 supporting agencies.
-6-5-4-3-2-1012
Grace e
t al. (
95)
Malhi e
t al. (
98)
Philips e
t al (9
8)
Araujo et
al (0
2)
Araujo et
al (0
2)
Carswell
et al
(02)
Miller e
t al (0
2)
Salesk
a et a
l (04)
Salesk
a et a
l (04)
Baker
et al
(04)
Baker
et al
(04)
Baker
et al
(04)
NEE
(ton
C/h
a.yr
)
Estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) obtained by eddy covariance technique and by aboveground biomass estimates. Biomass inventory (Backer et al, 2004), eastern and central plots, western plots and floodplain plots, respectively
COCO22 boundary layer budget boundary layer budget
Inte
grat
eded
dyco
varia
nce
flux
(mol
m)
-2
Integrated boundary layer budget flux (mol C m )-2
SOURCE
SINK
-0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.40.3 0.2 0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
0.4
-0.4
A comparison of estimates of the Amazonian forest carbon budget as obtained by CBL budgeting and the eddy covariance methods for Manaus in July 2001. Square symbols represent night time periods and circles represent daytime the daytime period. (Jon Lloyd et al)
Night fluxes are higher in budget study
The role of tropical rivers in the global Carbon budget
Richey et al (2002)
15
0
5
10
20
25
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Floo
ded
Are
a (x
104
km2 )
T (>100m)
MC
S (<100 m) MF
10152025
%
1.77 x 106 km2
Inundation
Σ: 1.2 ± 0.3 Mg C ha-1 y-1 (basin ~ 0.5 Pg/y)
15
0
5
10
20
25
30
J F M A M J J A S O N D
CO
2Ev
asio
n (T
g C
mo-
1 )
MC
Integrating field pCO2 measurements and flooded areas
13 x Fluvial TOC export = 0.036 Pg C /y
Richey et al (2002)
Methane emissions from wetlands
Final estimates suggest that the Amazon Basin wetlands may produce as much as 20% of the natural global source of methane. (Melack et al., 2004)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
annu
al m
etha
ne e
mis
sion
, Tg
C y
-1
MainstemEmissions
Interannual Variability
Lowland Amazon Basin (<500 m asl)(5.19 million km2)
Methane Emission 22 Tg C y-1
Central Amazon Basin(1.77 million km2)
Methane Emission 6.8 + 1.3 Tg C y-1
Low
Mid
High
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
77/88
*88
/8989
/9090
/9191
/9292
/9494
/9595
/9696
/9797
/9898
/9999
/0000
/0101
/0202
/0303
/04
Def
ores
tatio
n (k
m2 /y
)
* decadal annual mean INPE, 2005
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Fire Spots in Amazônia1999 - 2004 (NOAA-12)
Amazonia Deforestation1977- 2004 ( km² /y )
Deforestation and fire spots in Amazonia
Deforestation in Amazon BasinDeforestation in Amazon Basin
Source: Daniel Nepstad / IPAM
Some aspects related to land use change
• Agricultural “Frontier”: in several regions development is associated with expansion
• Socio-Economic drivers:– Pressure from large scale agricultural crops ~ soy
bean, sugar cane and others– Pastures, logging– Road construction
• Pressure from increase of population
Davidson and Artaxo, 2004
Estimates of net exchange of CO2, CH4 and N2O from the Amazon Basin to the atmosphere
In terms of GWP, the combined impacts of sources and sinks in Amazonia is close to zero
Highlights:II. New observation platforms
Measuring CO2 concentrations• Until recently, regular air measurements only made at a
few surface stations, and ocean measurements only on occasional research cruises
• However, the surface boundary layer isn’t representative of most of the atmosphere– Comparisons with transport models therefore problematic
• Similarly, little could be said about space and time variability within the ocean
• The number and extent of measurements is increasing fast
• The challenge now is to publish and understand large volumes of data, and to properly interpolate at the remaining gaps
Satellite spectrometry for CO2: current
• SCIAMACHY: retrievals so far are compromised by influence of aerosol scattering (Sander Houweling; cf. Hartmut Boesch )
• AIRS: retrievals of upper tropospheric pCO2 look promising, especially over the tropics; preliminary validation against Japanese measurements from airliners (Richard Engelen)
Satellite spectrometry for CO2: future
• Special-purpose satellites due to launch in 2008: GOSAT (Japan) and OCO (USA)
• Work on calibration and retrieval algorithms is ongoing
• Ground-based spectrometers can accurately retrieve column CO2 -validation against aircraft profiles (Rebecca Washenfelder)
TCCON Measurements and Model Predictions
Vanessa Sherlock and Brian Connor – Lauder CO2 columnsSeth Olsen – MATCH model results
385
380
375
370
365
CO
2 VM
R (p
pmv)
5/04 7/04 9/04 11/04 1/05 3/05 5/05 7/05 9/05Date
Park Falls, Wisconsin Lauder, New Zealand Darwin, Australia
LINE = Olsen and Randerson model
Highlights:III. Prognoses under global warming
Thanks!
Hazards of Temperature-increase on Food Availability in Changing
Environments:
Global Warming Could Cause Failureof Seed Yields of Major Crops
L. H. Allen, K. J. Boote, P. V. V. Prasad,A. M. Snyder, J. M. G. Thomas, and J. C.
VuUSDA-Agricultural Research Service and
Agronomy Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL USA
SCOPE--1
• Show experimental evidence for progression of seed yield failures with increasing temperature
• Plants were grown in deep soil in outdoor, sunlit controlled-environment chambers
• Controlled factors: Temperature, Humidity (Dewpoint), CO2 Concentration, Soil Water
• Plants were exposed to the same solar radiation during each individual study
SCOPE--2
• Crops Studied---rice, soybean, dry bean, peanut, grain sorghum
• Project simply the implications of global warming on decreases of food availability based on decreases of seed yields
• Modeling---underway. Beyond the scope of this presentation
THE FIRST STUDIES WERE ON THE EFFECTS
OF ELEVATED TEMPERATURE
AND [CO2] ON RICE
RICE STUDIES in FLOODED SOIL
Rice cultivar, IR-30, tropical indica type
Two CO2 levels, 330 and 660 ppm
Five studies with temperature treatments ranging from 25/18 to 40/33 oC (day/night); mean daily temperatures from 22 to 37 oC
IR-30 Rice Response to Temperature
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
20 25 30 35 40 45Mean Temperature, C
Bio
mas
s or
Yie
ld, M
g/ha
Biomass-330Biomass-660Yield-330Yield-660
General Rule of Thumb
Rice seed yield decreased about 10% for each 1°C increase above the OPTIMUM temperature for seed production.
In other words, yields dropped to zero at 10°C above the optimum temperature.
YIELD
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
20 23 26 29 32 35 38
TEMPERATURE (oC)
YIEL
D (g
m-2
)
IR72/350IR72/700M103/350 M103/700
Rice cultivarIR72 - tropical indicaM103 - temperate japonica
Soybean Response to Temperature
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20 25 30 35 40 45 50Mean Temperature, C
Mas
s, g
/pla
nt
BiomassSeed Yield
Importance of Temperature Effects on Reproductive
ProcessesElevated temperature affects reproductive processes more than vegetative biomass.
There is no beneficial interaction of high CO2 on the detrimental temperature effect.
Yields decreased to zero for cultivars studied at about:
32 °C for dry bean
35-36 °C for rice and grain sorghum
40 °C for soybean and peanut
Temperature sensitivity might vary for other cultivars.
Potential Impacts of Global Warming on Food Availability (Food
Production)• Example of rice, cultivar IR30
– A 5 °C rise in temperature might decrease yield to only 40% of current yield for Florida conditions.
Research and Information Needs
• Search for high temperature tolerant cultivars.
• Determine physiological and genetic mechanisms of temperature sensitivity and breed crop plants for less sensitivity.
• Ameliorate high temperature impacts with alternate crops, planting dates, etc.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 More
AGLB (ton/ha)
Freq
uenc
y
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Cum
ulat
ive
perc
enta
ge
Houghton et al. (2001):44 sites - 269±86 ton/ha
•Baker et al. (2003)59 sitest0 = 282±57 ton/hat7 = 294±55 ton/ha
•Overall AGB average: 283±66 ton/ha
Total biomassHoughton et al. (2001):AGB + 30% (roots and dead AGB): 370 ton/ha
Above ground biomass
World-wide Measurements of Atmospheric CO2 and Other Trace Species Using Commercial Airlines
T. Machida1, H. Matsueda2, Y. Nakagawa3, M. Tomosawa4, K. Ishikawa5, T. Inagaki5, T. Nakazawa6, T. Ogawa5 and T. Suenaga7
1NIES, 2MRI, 3JAL, 4JAMCO, 5JAXA, 6Tohoku U., 7JAL F.
Ongoing Project (MRI, JAL, JAL F)1993-now, Twice/monthCO2, CH4, CO
30N-25N
25N-20N
20N-15N
15N-10N
10N-5N
5N-EQ
EQ-5S
5S-10S10S-15S
15S-20S
20S-25S
25S-30S
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
5ppm
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
30N-25N
25N-20N
20N-15N
15N-10N
10N-5N
5N-EQ
EQ-5S
5S-10S
10S-15S
15S-20S20S-25S
25S-30S
Carbon monoxide (CO)100ppb
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
CO2
COGrowth Rate
Detail: Poster FF-177 (Matsueda et al.)
New Project from 2003
Atmospheric Measurement by Airliners for Trace Species: AMATRAS
New Functions…in-situ CO2 measurementAircraft information from ARINC
New Equipments for Commercial Airliners1. Continuous CO2 Measurement Equipment
(CME)2. Improved Automatic Air Sampling Equipment
(ASE)
New ASE
Flask: 12 TitaniumSampling: Twice/Month
Australia-JapanAnalysis: Next Day (in 2days)
old ASE new ASEControl Trigger:
Measurement:
Timer ARINCFixed PositionVertical Sampling
CO2, CH4, CO CO2, CH4, CON2O, SF6, H2CO2 isotope
FAA Official Test
Radio Frequency Emission Test
Altitude Test
Got an Approval from FAA in April 2005
High Temp TestPower Input TestRadio Frequency Emission TestStatic Load TestAltitude TestWaterproofness TestProof and Burst Pressure TestVibration TestRadio Frequency Susceptibility TestVoltage Spike TestStatic Load Test
FWD
Installation on 747-400
CME
ASEPump
air conditioning duct
Schedule
Apr. 2005: FAA Official Test
Oct. 2005: Installation for 747-400End-Oct.: Issue STC by FAA & JCAB
1st Test Flight by 747
Nov. 2005: 2nd 747Feb. 2006: 1st 777Apr. 2006: 2nd and 3rd 777
2006-2010: Budget Applied (MOE Japan)
Initial Results from theTotal Carbon Column Observing Network
R.A. Washenfelder1, V. Sherlock2, B.J. Connor2, G.C. Toon3, and P.O. Wennberg1
1 California Institute of Technology (Pasadena, CA)2 National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Lauder, New Zealand)3 NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (Pasadena, CA)
Comparison of FTS Column and Integrated Aircraft CO2
380
375
370
365
360
FTS
Col
umn
/ Dry
Pre
ssur
e (p
pmv)
380375370365360
Aircraft Integrated Column / Dry Pressure (ppmv)
CO2 6220 cm-1 band = 1.0076 x Aircraft Column
CO2 6339-1 band = 0.995 x Aircraft Column One to one line
Comparison of FTS Column and Integrated Aircraft CO2
380
375
370
365
360
FTS
Col
umn
/ Dry
Pre
ssur
e (p
pmv)
380375370365360
Aircraft Integrated Column / Dry Pressure (ppmv)
CO2 6220 cm-1 scaled by 1.0076
CO2 6339 cm-1 scaled by 0.995