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Environment

IPCC officials admit mistake over melting Himalayan

glaciers

The Himalayas. The row centres on the IPCCs 2007 report, which said 'glaciers in the

Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world.' Photograph: GettyRead by 43 people

Remove from timelineWednesday 20 January 2010

Senior members of the UN's climate science body admit a claim that Himalayan

glaciers could melt away by 2035 was unfounded

The UN's climate science body has admitted that a claim made in its 2007 report - that

Himalayan glaciers could melt away by 2035 - was unfounded.

The admission today followed aNew Scientist article last weekthat revealed the source of theclaim made in the 2007 report by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) was

not peer-reviewed scientific literaturebut a media interview with a scientist conducted in 1999.Several senior scientists have now said the claim was unrealistic and that the large Himalayan

glaciers could not melt in a few decades.

In astatement (pdf), the IPCC said the paragraph "refers to poorly substantiated estimates of rate

of recession and date for the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers. In drafting the paragraph in

question, the clear and well-established standards of evidence, required by the IPCC procedures,were not applied properly."

It added: "The IPCC regrets the poor application of well-established IPCC procedures in thisinstance." But the statement calls for no action beyond stating a need for absolute adherence to

IPCC quality control processes. "We reaffirm our strong commitment to ensuring this level of

performance," the statement said.

The IPCC says the broader conclusion of the report is unaffected: that glaciers have melted

significantly, that this will accelerate and affect the supply of water from major mountain ranges"where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives".
http://www.facebook.com/settings?tab=applications&app_id=180444840287http://www.facebook.com/settings?tab=applications&app_id=180444840287http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18363-debate-heats-up-over-ipcc-melting-glaciers-claim.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-newshttp://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18363-debate-heats-up-over-ipcc-melting-glaciers-claim.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-newshttp://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18363-debate-heats-up-over-ipcc-melting-glaciers-claim.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-newshttp://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/himalaya-statement-20january2010.pdfhttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/himalaya-statement-20january2010.pdfhttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/himalaya-statement-20january2010.pdfhttp://apps.facebook.com/theguardian/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/himalaya-statement-20january2010.pdfhttp://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18363-debate-heats-up-over-ipcc-melting-glaciers-claim.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-newshttp://www.facebook.com/settings?tab=applications&app_id=180444840287


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Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, vice-chair of the IPCC, added that the mistake did nothing to

undermine the large body of evidence that showed the climate was warming and that humanactivity was largely to blame. Hetold BBC News: "I don't see how one mistake in a 3,000-page

report can damage the credibility of the overall report. "

The Indian environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, said earlier in the week: "The [glaciers] areindeed receding and the rate is cause for great concern [but the claim is] not based on an iota

of scientific evidence."

TheIndian government criticised the IPCC's glaciers claim in Novemberat the launch of itsown

discussion paper, written by geologist Vijay Kumar Raina, which admitted that while someglaciers in the Himalayas were retreating, it was "nothing out of the ordinary. Nothing to suggest

as some have said that they will disappear."

At the time, the chairman of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, dismissed the report as not peer-

reviewed and said: "With the greatest of respect this guy retired years ago and I find it totally

baffling that he comes out and throws out everything that has been established years ago."

Georg Kaser, an expert in tropical glaciology at the University of Innsbruck in Austria and a lead

author for the IPCC, said he had warned that the 2035 prediction was clearly wrong in 2006,months before the report was published. "This [date] is not just a little bit wrong, but far out of

any order of magnitude," he said.

"All the responsible people are aware of this weakness in the fourth assessment. All are aware of

the mistakes made," he said. "If it had not been the focus of so much public opinion, we would

have said 'we will do better next time'. It is clear now that working group II has to be

restructured."

The reports of the IPCC collate the work of thousands of scientists and are assessed through aprocess of peer-review and then approved by the 192 governments who are members of the UN

Framework Convention on Climate Change. Its work is seen as the most comprehensive account

of global warming.

The chair of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, has made no personal comment on the glacier claim:

But yesterday, at an energy conference in Abu Dhabi, heresponded to British newspaper articlescriticising his chairmanshipof the IPCC. "They can't attack the science so they attack the

chairman. But they won't sink me. I am theunsinkable Molly Brown. In fact, I will float much

higher," he told the Guardian.

The row centres on the IPCC's"fourth assessment" report in 2007, which said "glaciers in the

Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate

continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very highif the Earth keeps warming at the current rate." The claim appears in the full report, but not in the

more widely read "Summary for policymakers".
http://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/index.php?page=vanyp%23HomePagehttp://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/index.php?page=vanyp%23HomePagehttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8468358.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8468358.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8468358.stmhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/india-pachauri-climate-glaciershttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/india-pachauri-climate-glaciershttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/india-pachauri-climate-glaciershttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Brownhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Brownhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Brownhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Brownhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/india-pachauri-climate-glaciershttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8468358.stmhttp://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/index.php?page=vanyp%23HomePage


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The claim was attributed to a report by the campaign group WWF, but in the New Scientist

article, Guardian writer Fred Pearce noted that WWF had cited a 1999 interview in the magazinewith Indian glaciologist Syed Hasnain as the source of the claim. Hasnain told the magazine last

week that "it is not proper for IPCC to include references from popular magazines or

newspapers".

Additional reporting: Ian Wylie

options

Nature Geoscience | Letter

Slight mass gain of Karakoram glaciers in

the early twenty-first century

Julie Gardelle, Etienne Berthier

Nature Geoscience(2012)

Assessments of the state of health of Hindu-KushKarakoramHimalaya glaciers and theircontribution to regional hydrology and global sea-level rise suffer from a severe lack of

observations1. The globally averaged mass balance of glaciers and ice caps is negative1, 2, 3. An

anomalous gain of mass has been suggested for the Karakoram glaciers2,4,5,6

, but was not

confirmed by recent estimates of mass balance. Furthermore, numerous glacier surges in theregion that lead to changes in glacier length and velocity7,8,9,10,11complicate the interpretation

of the available observations. Here, we calculate the regional mass balance of glaciers in the

central Karakoram between 1999 and 2008, based on the difference between two digitalelevation models. We find a highly heterogeneous spatial pattern of changes in glacier elevation,which shows that ice thinning and ablation at high rates can occur on debris-covered glacier

tongues. The regional mass balance is just positive at +0.110.22myr1 water equivalent and inagreement with the observed reduction of river runoff that originates in this area12. Our

measurements confirm an anomalous mass balance in the Karakoram region and indicate that the

contribution of Karakoram glaciers to sea-level rise was 0.01mmyr1 for the period from 1999to 2008, 0.05mmyr1 lower than suggested before13.
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#accesshttp://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#accesshttp://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#auth-1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#auth-1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#auth-2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#auth-2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref3http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref3http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref3http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref4http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref4http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref4http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref5http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref5http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref5http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref6http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref6http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref6http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref7http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref7http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref8http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref8http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref8http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref9http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref9http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref9http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref10http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref10http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref10http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref11http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref11http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref11http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref12http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref12http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref12http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref13http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref13http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref13http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref12http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref11http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref10http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref9http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref8http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref7http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref6http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref5http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref4http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref3http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#ref1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#auth-2http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#auth-1http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1450.html#access


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nvironment

IPCC officials admit mistake over melting Himalayan

glaciers

The Himalayas. The row centres on the IPCCs 2007 report, which said 'glaciers in theHimalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world.' Photograph: Getty

Read by 43 people

Remove from timelineWednesday 20 January 2010

Senior members of the UN's climate science body admit a claim that Himalayan

glaciers could melt away by 2035 was unfounded

The UN's climate science body has admitted that a claim made in its 2007 report - thatHimalayan glaciers could melt away by 2035 - was unfounded.

The admission today followed aNew Scientist article last weekthat revealed the source of the

claim made in the 2007 report by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) wasnot peer-reviewed scientific literaturebut a media interview with a scientist conducted in 1999.

Several senior scientists have now said the claim was unrealistic and that the large Himalayan

glaciers could not melt in a few decades.

In astatement (pdf), the IPCC said the paragraph "refers to poorly substantiated estimates of rate

of recession and date for the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers. In drafting the paragraph in

question, the clear and well-established standards of evidence, required by the IPCC procedures,were not applied properly."

It added: "The IPCC regrets the poor application of well-established IPCC procedures in thisinstance." But the statement calls for no action beyond stating a need for absolute adherence to

IPCC quality control processes. "We reaffirm our strong commitment to ensuring this level of

performance," the statement said.

The IPCC says the broader conclusion of the report is unaffected: that glaciers have melted

significantly, that this will accelerate and affect the supply of water from major mountain ranges

"where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives".

Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, vice-chair of the IPCC, added that the mistake did nothing toundermine the large body of evidence that showed the climate was warming and that human

activity was largely to blame. Hetold BBC News: "I don't see how one mistake in a 3,000-page

report can damage the credibility of the overall report. "
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18363-debate-heats-up-over-ipcc-melting-glaciers-claim.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-newshttp://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18363-debate-heats-up-over-ipcc-melting-glaciers-claim.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-newshttp://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18363-debate-heats-up-over-ipcc-melting-glaciers-claim.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-newshttp://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/himalaya-statement-20january2010.pdfhttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/himalaya-statement-20january2010.pdfhttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/himalaya-statement-20january2010.pdfhttp://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/index.php?page=vanyp%23HomePagehttp://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/index.php?page=vanyp%23HomePagehttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8468358.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8468358.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8468358.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8468358.stmhttp://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/index.php?page=vanyp%23HomePagehttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/himalaya-statement-20january2010.pdfhttp://www.ipcc.ch/http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18363-debate-heats-up-over-ipcc-melting-glaciers-claim.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news


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The Indian environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, said earlier in the week: "The [glaciers] are

indeed receding and the rate is cause for great concern [but the claim is] not based on an iotaof scientific evidence."

TheIndian government criticised the IPCC's glaciers claim in Novemberat the launch of itsown

discussion paper, written by geologist Vijay Kumar Raina, which admitted that while someglaciers in the Himalayas were retreating, it was "nothing out of the ordinary. Nothing to suggest

as some have said that they will disappear."

At the time, the chairman of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, dismissed the report as not peer-

reviewed and said: "With the greatest of respect this guy retired years ago and I find it totallybaffling that he comes out and throws out everything that has been established years ago."

Georg Kaser, an expert in tropical glaciology at the University of Innsbruck in Austria and a leadauthor for the IPCC, said he had warned that the 2035 prediction was clearly wrong in 2006,

months before the report was published. "This [date] is not just a little bit wrong, but far out of

any order of magnitude," he said.

"All the responsible people are aware of this weakness in the fourth assessment. All are aware of

the mistakes made," he said. "If it had not been the focus of so much public opinion, we wouldhave said 'we will do better next time'. It is clear now that working group II has to be

restructured."

The reports of the IPCC collate the work of thousands of scientists and are assessed through a

process of peer-review and then approved by the 192 governments who are members of the UN

Framework Convention on Climate Change. Its work is seen as the most comprehensive account

of global warming.

The chair of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, has made no personal comment on the glacier claim:But yesterday, at an energy conference in Abu Dhabi, heresponded to British newspaper articles

criticising his chairmanshipof the IPCC. "They can't attack the science so they attack the

chairman. But they won't sink me. I am theunsinkable Molly Brown. In fact, I will float muchhigher," he told the Guardian.

The row centres on the IPCC's"fourth assessment" report in 2007, which said "glaciers in theHimalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate

continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high

if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate." The claim appears in the full report, but not in the

more widely read "Summary for policymakers".

The claim was attributed to a report by the campaign group WWF, but in the New Scientist

article, Guardian writer Fred Pearce noted that WWF had cited a 1999 interview in the magazinewith Indian glaciologist Syed Hasnain as the source of the claim. Hasnain told the magazine last

week that "it is not proper for IPCC to include references from popular magazines or

newspapers".
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/india-pachauri-climate-glaciershttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/india-pachauri-climate-glaciershttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/india-pachauri-climate-glaciershttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Brownhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Brownhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Brownhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Brownhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attackshttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdfhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/india-pachauri-climate-glaciers


7/15

Additional reporting: Ian Wylie

Karakoram glaciers have grown over last decade, new

research shows

A part of the Karakoram mountain range reflected in a glacial lake. Photograph: DavidBathgate/Corbis

Read by 353 people

Remove from timeline

Sunday 15 April 2012

3D altitude maps captured by satellites show glaciers in part of the greater

Himalaya range are bucking the global trend of continued ice loss

The glaciers flowing between the towering peaks of the Karakoram range on the Pakistan-China

border have grown in size in the last decade, according to new research.

The impact of climate change on the ice in the greaterHimalaya range has been controversial

because of an unfounded claim by the United Nations' climate science panel over the rate of

melting in the region. However themelting of vast volumes of iceinto the sea in most other partsof the world has been clearly demonstrated. In March, scientists showed thatfar less ice was

being lost across the Himalayasthan had been estimated from sparse ground surveys on theremote slopes.

The new study shows that glaciers in one important part of the mountain range are growing. "We

provide a detailed glacier-scale evaluation of mass changes in the central Karakoram," said JulieGardelle, at CNRS-Universit Grenoble, who led theresearch published in Nature Geoscienceon

Sunday. "In our warming world, there are regions of the Earth where, for a few years or decades,

the atmosphere is not warming or is even cooling. So it is not really a big surprise that there aresome regions where the temperature is not rising and the Karakoram may be one of those."

The scientists used 3D altitude maps obtained from satellites in 2000 and 2008 to track the

changes in the glaciers. Prof Graham Cogley, of Trent University in Canada, who was not part ofthe research team, called the approach a "ground-breaking" advance.

"On most of the glaciers in the Karakoram it is simply not possible to be there," he said. "Theroads end well short of the glaciers, and it can take days to trek to them. If you reach that point in

spite of reluctant soldiers and eager terrorists, it might be physically impossible to get on to the

glacier, which will be extremely crevassed and dangerous. Granting agencies do not fork out forhelicopter time for this kind of activity. Yet."
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Global warming is causing the loss of more than 500bn tonnes a year of ice from the world's ice

caps and glaciers, but it is not yet understood why the Karakoram bucks that trend. "It seemsthat, by a quirk of the atmospheric general circulation that is not understood, more snow is being

delivered to the mountain range at present, and less heat," said Cogley. He added that the valleys

of the Karakoram are unusually steep sided, meaning that unpredictable snow avalanches add

more ice to the glaciers than elsewhere. On 7 April, scores of Pakistani soldiers were killed by anavalanche on the nearby Siachen glacier.

The global study published in March used gravity measurements by satellites which directly

measures changes in the mass of ice, but has a resolution of about 350km, whereas Gardelle's

work focused on one region with a resolution of 100m. Continuing controversy about meltingrates means "new independent assessments are eagerly needed," said Gardelle, who will now

apply her method to other parts of the Himalayas.

Prof Jonathan Bamber, at the University of Bristol, said Gardelle's research was consistent withglobal gravity work. But he cautioned: "Nine years is a very short period to draw strong

conclusions about trends in glaciers. If you are looking for a climate effect - as opposed to aweather effect - you usually take a 30-year period as a minimum, on the assumption that thisaverages out the interannual variability."

Cogley emphasised that, despite the relatively ice small growth seen the Karakoram, globalglacier and ice cap melting is continuing and contributing to rising sea levels. "The world

exhibits enormous variety, but that doesn't mean we cannot make valuable generalisations about

how it is changing," he said.

8 April 2012 Last updated at 04:18 GMT

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Kashmir avalanche: Up to 135 feared dead

on Siachen
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9/15

Continue reading the main story

Related Stories

Kashmir profile Q&A: Kashmir dispute On the world's highest battlefield

The number of people feared dead in an avalanche in the disputed Kashmir region has risen to

135, the Pakistan army has said.

Spokesman Maj Gen Athar Abbas told the BBC 124 Pakistani soldiers and 11 civilians were

missing after 21m (70ft) of snow engulfed a military camp near the Siachen Glacier on Saturday.

He had earlier said that 100 soldiers and 11 civilians were missing.

Rescuers have yet to find any survivors.
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Maj Gen Abbas told the BBC's Orla Guerin, in the Pakistani capital Islamabad, that the

avalanche had covered an area of 1 sq km (0.39 sq m).

Sniffer dogs

The search was called off late on Saturday due to darkness and poor weather, but is set to resumeearly on Sunday.

Hundreds of troops, plus sniffer dogs and helicopters are involved in the rescue operation.

In a statement, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani expressed shock at the disaster, but

said it "in no way would undermine the high morale of soldiers and officers."

The camp, located 15,000ft (4,572 m) above sea level in Kashmir's Gayari district, near the

border with India, was engulfed by snow at around 06:00 local time (01:00 GMT).

Maj Gen Abbas earlier described the avalanche as "very massive".

He also warned it could take several days to complete the rescue operation, which was

unprecedented in scale for such a location, where temperatures can plunge to minus 70 Celsius.

'Prone to avalanches'

As of yet, there has been no communication with any of the missing soldiers, who were from the

Northern Light Infantry regiment, which is trained in mountain operations.

The region is prone to avalanches, the major general said, although they typically occur in

"forward bases" at higher altitude, where only 10 or 20 troops are located.

One officer who had been stationed at the base in 2003 said he could not "comprehend how an

avalanche can reach that place".

"It was supposed to be safe," he told the Associated Press.

A previous avalanche in the area killed 24 Pakistani troops in 2010 - believed to be the heaviestloss of life in such an incident until now.

Kashmir has been partitioned between India and Pakistan since 1947.

Failure to agree on the status of the territory by diplomatic means has twice brought India and

Pakistan to war.

The Siachen glacier is known as the world's highest battlefield, and soldiers have been deployedat elevations of up to 6,700m (22,000 feet).

However, more soldiers have died from the harsh weather conditions there than in combat.


11/15

On the world's highest battlefield

By Renu Agal

BBC Hindi Service, Siachen

India appears to have ruled out making concessions to Pakistan over the

disputed Siachen glacier ahead of talks on Kashmir this week. We look

at what life is like for troops stationed there.

On top of the world's highest battlefield, the soldier's biggest foe is the

weather.

Bone-chilling winds whip the landscape and avalanches sweep soldiers into

30-foot-deep crevasses.

The harsh sun burns their skin and, combined with the thin air and sub-zero

temperatures, can induce acute depression.

Cold statistics tell you that more lives have been lost to the weather than to

the enemy since 1984, when the Indian army first occupied the Siachen

glacier.

Some 7,000 Indian soldiers are stationed on the disputed glacier - at 5,500

metres above sea level - bordering Pakistani and Indian-administered portions of Kashmir.

Pakistan has some 150 manned posts and about 3,500 soldiers there.

Ironically, Siachen means a land of wild roses but all you see here are some thorny bushes weathering the elements

hoping to bloom in April.

It is not easy for a journalist to endure the harsh terrain and the weather of the glacier.

As I walked along a rocky pathway with a grey icy massif on one side and a half frozen stream on the other, the 50-

metre trek felt like a mile-long jog. I was catching my breath after every sentence I uttered.

In front was a shrine in the memory of 'OP Baba'. Legend on the Indian side is that Om Prakash protected a post in

these icy heights single-handedly from Pakistani fire. No one knows what happened to him, but soldiers here feel

that if they have 'OP Baba's' blessings they will survive any situation.

'I am never tired'

Just a few steps away on the icy mountains a training session for soldiers was underway. There were 450 soldiers

present.

Rifleman Gyaltsen has been training soldiers here for the past year.

The weather is the soldier's

worst enemy


12/15

"We tell them how to save someone from a crevasse, how to be aware of

crevasses and to cross them and what to do to save yourself from being

buried in an avalanche," he says.

I learnt from him that one way to save yourself from being buried in an

avalanche is to make swimming movements.

Most soldiers are posted on the higher ridges for just three months. So, the

Siachen battle school trains around 7,000 soldiers every year.

One of them, Anshuman Narain, is waiting for lunch after a long morning

session.

In the evening he has time to watch films and read his favourite books - "I

am never tired."

Other men, clad in white camouflage uniforms with their blood group written

on their coats, seem to share his energy.

Breathtaking

The journey to Siachen is as spectacular as the visit to the glacier.

We flew from Delhi in an army plane to the Thoise air base in Ladakh in Indian-administered Kashmir.

The journey offered us some breathtaking views of rugged mountains, jagged crevasses in the glaciers below, blade-

like mountain tops and tonnes of boulders which move slowly with the pace of the mammoth glacier.

The crew told us that the last village in Siachen area had just seven houses - beyond that there was only the army.

We saw the Nubra valley, the old Silk Route passing through the Karakoram ranges, and wondered how people

managed to survive, let alone trade in these parts.

We landed at Thoise and felt the cold mountain air - there is 30% less oxygen here than normal. We were given

heavy coats and woollen caps.

The soldiers here live in fibreglass huts with fibreglass toilets. There is an

officers' lounge and some labourers worked on planting saplings and helping

in maintaining the base.

A private carrier brings food and ration, kerosene and fuel for the troops.

From Thoise supplies are flown up by helicopters to around 16,000ft (4,876

metres) where over four-fifths of the Indian troops in Siachen are stationed.

There is a famous local saying, "The land is so barren and passes so high that

only the best of friends and fiercest of enemies come by.''

The dispute over Siachen, which began more than 20 years ago, is testimony

to this saying.

The view from the air is

breathtaking

Bitter fighting erupted atSiachen in 1989


13/15

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Environment

The Himalayas and nearby peaks have lost no ice in past 10

years, study shows

Hopar glacier inPakistan. Melting ice outside the two largest caps - Greenland and Antarctica - is much less than

previously estimated, the study has found. Photograph: Paula Bronstein/Getty Images

Read by 4,887 peopleRemove from timeline

Wednesday 8 February 2012

Meltwater from Asia's peaks is much less than previously estimated, but lead

scientist says the loss of ice caps and glaciers around the world remains a seriousconcern

Live Q&A: What does the Himalaya glacier study mean for climate change?

In pictures: the best images of the Earth from space
http://www.facebook.com/settings?tab=applications&app_id=180444840287http://www.facebook.com/settings?tab=applications&app_id=180444840287http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/09/glaciers-himalayas-climate-change-live-qanda?intcmp=122http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/09/glaciers-himalayas-climate-change-live-qanda?intcmp=122http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/gallery/2012/feb/08/satellite-eye-in-pictureshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/gallery/2012/feb/08/satellite-eye-in-pictureshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/gallery/2012/feb/08/satellite-eye-in-pictureshttp://apps.facebook.com/theguardian/http://apps.facebook.com/theguardian/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/gallery/2012/feb/08/satellite-eye-in-pictureshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/09/glaciers-himalayas-climate-change-live-qanda?intcmp=122http://www.facebook.com/settings?tab=applications&app_id=180444840287


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The world's greatest snow-capped peaks, which run in a chain from the Himalayas to Tian Shan

on the border of China and Kyrgyzstan, have lost no ice over the last decade, new researchshows.

The discovery has stunned scientists, who had believed that around 50bn tonnes of meltwater

were being shed each year and not being replaced by new snowfall.

The study is the first to survey all the world's icecaps and glaciers and was made possible by theuse of satellite data. Overall, the contribution of melting ice outside the two largest caps

GreenlandandAntarcticais much less than previously estimated, with the lack of ice loss in

the Himalayas and the other high peaks of Asia responsible for most of the discrepancy.

Bristol University glaciologist Prof Jonathan Bamber, who was not part of the research team,

said: "The very unexpected result was the negligible mass loss from high mountain Asia, whichis not significantly different from zero."

The melting of Himalayan glaciers caused controversy in 2009 when a report from the UN'sIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change mistakenly stated that they woulddisappear by

2035, instead of 2350. However, the scientist who led the new work is clear that while greater

uncertainty has been discovered in Asia's highest mountains, the melting of ice caps and glaciersaround the world remains a serious concern.

"Our results and those of everyone else show we are losing a huge amount of water into theoceans every year," said ProfJohn Wahrof the University of Colorado. "People should be just as

worried about the melting of the world's ice as they were before."

His team's study, published in thejournal Nature, concludes that between 443-629bn tonnes of

meltwater overall are added to the world's oceans each year. This is raising sea level by about1.5mm a year, the team reports, in addition to the 2mm a year caused byexpansion of thewarming ocean.

The scientists are careful to point out that lower-altitude glaciers in the Asian mountain rangessometimes dubbed the "third pole"aredefinitely melting. Satellite images andreportsconfirm

this. But over the study period from 2003-10 enough ice was added to the peaks to compensate.

The impact on predictions for futuresea level riseis yet to be fully studied but Bamber said:

"The projections for sea level rise by 2100 will not change by much, say 5cm or so, so we are

talking about a very small modification." Existing estimatesrange from 30cm to 1m.

Wahr warned that while crucial to a better understanding of ice melting, the eight years of data is

a relatively short time period and that variable monsoons mean year-to-year changes in ice massof hundreds of billions of tonnes. "It is awfully dangerous to take an eight-year record and

predict even the next eight years, let alone the next century," he said.

The reason for the radical reappraisal of ice melting in Asia is the different ways in which the

current and previous studies were conducted. Until now, estimates of meltwater loss for all the
http://blogs.reuters.com/environment/2011/01/21/greenland-ice-melt-sets-a-record-and-could-set-the-stage-for-sea-level-rise/http://blogs.reuters.com/environment/2011/01/21/greenland-ice-melt-sets-a-record-and-could-set-the-stage-for-sea-level-rise/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/22/east-antarctic-ice-sheet-nasahttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/22/east-antarctic-ice-sheet-nasahttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/22/east-antarctic-ice-sheet-nasahttp://www.bris.ac.uk/geography/research/bgc/http://www.bris.ac.uk/geography/research/bgc/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/20/ipcc-himalayan-glaciers-mistakehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/20/ipcc-himalayan-glaciers-mistakehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/20/ipcc-himalayan-glaciers-mistakehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/20/ipcc-himalayan-glaciers-mistakehttp://cires.colorado.edu/people/wahr/http://cires.colorado.edu/people/wahr/http://cires.colorado.edu/people/wahr/http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature10847.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature10847.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature10847.htmlhttp://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/estimate-steric-contribution-global-sea-level-rise-comparison-woce-one-time-survey-2006-2008http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/estimate-steric-contribution-global-sea-level-rise-comparison-woce-one-time-survey-2006-2008http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/estimate-steric-contribution-global-sea-level-rise-comparison-woce-one-time-survey-2006-2008http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/estimate-steric-contribution-global-sea-level-rise-comparison-woce-one-time-survey-2006-2008http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/04/byers-himalaya-changing-landscapeshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/04/byers-himalaya-changing-landscapeshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/04/byers-himalaya-changing-landscapeshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/series/changing-himalayashttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/series/changing-himalayashttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/series/changing-himalayashttp://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise.htmhttp://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise.htmhttp://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise.htmhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/11/sea-level-rises-climate-change-copenhagenhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/11/sea-level-rises-climate-change-copenhagenhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/11/sea-level-rises-climate-change-copenhagenhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/11/sea-level-rises-climate-change-copenhagenhttp://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise.htmhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/series/changing-himalayashttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/04/byers-himalaya-changing-landscapeshttp://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/estimate-steric-contribution-global-sea-level-rise-comparison-woce-one-time-survey-2006-2008http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/estimate-steric-contribution-global-sea-level-rise-comparison-woce-one-time-survey-2006-2008http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature10847.htmlhttp://cires.colorado.edu/people/wahr/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/20/ipcc-himalayan-glaciers-mistakehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/20/ipcc-himalayan-glaciers-mistakehttp://www.bris.ac.uk/geography/research/bgc/http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/22/east-antarctic-ice-sheet-nasahttp://blogs.reuters.com/environment/2011/01/21/greenland-ice-melt-sets-a-record-and-could-set-the-stage-for-sea-level-rise/


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world's 200,000 glaciers were based on extrapolations of data from a few hundred monitored on

the ground. Those glaciers at lower altitudes are much easier for scientists to get to and so weremore frequently included, but they were also more prone to melting.

The bias was particularly strong in Asia, said Wahr: "There extrapolation is really tough as only

a handful of lower-altitude glaciers are monitored and there are thousands there very high up."

The new study used apair of satellites, called Grace, which measure tiny changes in the Earth'sgravitational pull. When ice is lost, the gravitational pull weakens and is detected by the orbiting

spacecraft. "They fly at 500km, so they see everything," said Wahr, including the hard-to-reach,

high-altitude glaciers.

"I believe this data is the most reliable estimate of global glacier mass balance that has been

produced to date," said Bamber. He noted that 1.4 billion people depend on the rivers that flowfrom the Himalayas and Tibetan plateau: "That is a compelling reason to try to understand what

is happening there better."

He added: "The new data does not mean that concerns about climate change are overblown in

any way. It means there is a much larger uncertainty in high mountain Asia than we thought.

Taken globally all the observations of the Earth's icepermafrost, Arctic sea ice, snow coverand glaciersare going in the same direction."

Grace launched in 2002 and continues to monitor the planet, but it has passed its expectedmission span and its batteries are beginning to weaken. A replacement mission has been

approved by the US and German space agencies and could launch in 2016.

This article was amended on 9 February 2012. The original sub-heading read "Melting ice from

Asia's peaks is much less then previously estimated" as did the photo caption and text: "Meltingice outside the two largest caps - Greenland and Antarctica - is much less then previouslyestimated". These have all been corrected.
http://www.csr.utexas.edu/grace/http://www.csr.utexas.edu/grace/http://www.csr.utexas.edu/grace/http://www.csr.utexas.edu/grace/

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