Hindustan Zinc, 1Q FY 2014

7/27/2019 Hindustan Zinc, 1Q FY 2014

1/11

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Quarterly highlights (Standalone)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 % chg (yoy) 4QFY13 % chg (qoq)Net sales 2,939 2,713 8.4 3,850 (23.7)EBITDA 1,503 1,429 5.2 2,116 (29.0)

EBITDA margin (%) 51.1 52.7 (153)bp 55.0 (382)bp

Adjusted PAT 1,661 1,581 5.0 2,183 (23.9)Source: Company, Angel Research

Hindustan Zinc (HZL)s 1QFY2014 results were in-line with our expectations. Wemaintain our Buy recommendation.Strong growth in zinc and silver volumes: HZLs net sales increased by 8.4% yoy to`2,939cr (in-line with our estimate of `2,916cr), mainly due to increased sales

volumes of zinc and silver. Refined zinc production volumes increased 10.0% yoy to

173kt and refined silver production volumes grew 31.0% yoy to 96kt due to higher

production from Sindesur Khurd mine and new Dariba lead and silver capacities.

EBITDA up 5.2% yoy: HZLs EBITDA margin contracted by 153bp yoy to 51.1%mainly on account of a 2.0% yoy increase in cost of production to

`46,765/tonne. The cost of production increased primarily due to lower

sulphuric acid credits and higher excavation costs, although these were

partially offset by a lower price of coal, lower specific coal consumption and

benefits accruing out of higher volumes.PAT rises by 5.0% yoy: The companys other income rose by 8.0% yoy to`620cr while depreciation increased by 6.3% yoy to `184cr. There was an

exceptional item of VRS of `1cr and consequently, the adjusted net profit

grew by 5.0% yoy to `1,661cr (above our estimate of `1,617cr).

Outlook and valuation: With a cash-rich balance sheet and strong productiongrowth of zinc, lead and silver over FY2013-15, we maintain our positive stance

on HZL. While we expect earnings to decline slightly during FY2014, we expect

them to be higher in FY2015 on the back of improvement in both, realizations as

well as volumes. HZL is currently trading at an inexpensive valuation of 2.8x and

1.8x FY2014E and FY2015E EV/EBITDA, respectively. Valuing the stock at 4.0xFY2015E EV/EBITDA, we recommend a Buy on HZL with a target price of `140.Key financials (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet sales 11,255 12,526 12,389 13,093% chg 12.1 11.3 (1.1) 5.7

Net profit 5,569 6,917 6,437 7,179% chg 13.2 24.2 (6.9) 11.5

EPS (`) 13.1 16.3 15.2 17.0EBITDA margin (%) 52.6 50.4 48.5 51.7

P/E (x) 8.0 6.4 6.8 6.1

P/BV (x) 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0

RoE (%) 22.4 23.3 18.5 17.9

RoCE (%) 21.2 19.0 15.2 15.0

EV/Sales (x) 2.3 1.8 1.4 0.9

EV/EBITDA (x) 4.4 3.6 2.8 1.8

Source: Company, Angel Research

BUYCMP `104

Target Price `140

Investment Period 12 months

Stock Info

Sector

Net Debt (`cr) (22,365)

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 64.9

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 1.9

FII / NRIs / OCBs 1.6Indian Public / Others 31.6

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 6.0 16.6 12.4

Hindustan Zinc (5.4) (12.4) 6.4

HZ@IN

2

20,150

6,029

HZNC.BO

44,028

1.0

147/96

110,572

Base Metals

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (`cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

Bhavesh ChauhanTel: 022- 39357800 Ext: 6821

[email protected]

Vinay RachhTel: 022- 39357800 Ext: 6841

[email protected]

Hindustan ZincPerformance Highlights

1QFY2014 Result Update | Base Metals

July 19, 2013


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Hindustan Zinc | 1QFY2014 Result Update

July 19, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:1QFY1014 Performance (Standalone)

(` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 yoy % 4QFY13 qoq % FY2013 FY2012 yoy %Net sales 2,939 2,713 8.4 3,850 (23.7) 12,526 11,255 11.3Mining and manufacturing expenses 898 863 4.1 1,168 (23.1) 3,450 3,230 6.8% of Net sales 30.6 31.8 30.3 27.5 28.7

Mining royalty 253 204 23.8 244 3.7 920 838 9.8

% of Net sales 8.6 7.5 6.3 7.3 7.4

Staff cost 178 149 19.4 177 0.7 650 535 21.6

% of Net sales 6.1 5.5 4.6 5.2 4.8

Admin, selling and others 152 103 47.5 204 (25.7) 518 421 23.1

% of Net sales 5.2 3.8 5.3 4.1 3.7

Total expenditure 1,481 1,319 12.3 1,793 (17.4) 5,538 5,024 10.2% of Net sales 50.4 48.6 46.6 44.2 44.6

Other operating income 45 35 27.7 58.4 (23.3) 174 150 16.0

EBIDTA 1,503 1,429 5.2 2,116 (29.0) 6,482 6,069 6.8% of Net sales 51.1 52.7 55.0 51.7 53.9

Interest 11 13 (15.1) 11 1.0 29 14 108.6

Depreciation 184 173 6.3 122 51.2 647 611 6.0

Other income 620 574 8.0 412 50.6 2,032 1,543 31.7

Exceptional items 1 0 18 18 43

Profit before tax 1,928 1,817 6.1 2,378 (18.9) 7,820 6,945 12.6% of Net sales 65.6 67.0 61.7 62.4 61.7

Provision for tax 267 235 13.5 212 26.1 921 1,419 (35.1)

% of PBT 13.9 13.0 8.9 11.8 20.4

Profit after tax 1,660 1,581 5.0 2,166 (23.3) 6,899 5,526 24.9% of Net sales 56.5 58.3 56.3 55.1 49.1

Adjusted net profit 1,661 1,581 5.0 2,183 (23.9) 6,917 5,569 24.2


Exhibit 2:Actual vs Estimates

(` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)Net Sales 2,939 2,916 0.8

EBITDA 1,503 1,563 (3.8)

EBITDA margin (%) 51.1 53.6 (247)bp

Adjusted PAT 1,661 1,617 2.7


Strong growth in zinc and silver volumes

For 1QFY2014, HZLs net sales increased by8.4% yoy to `2,939cr (in-line with

our estimate of `2,916cr), mainly due to increased sales volumes of zinc and

silver. Refined zinc production volumes increased 10.0% yoy to 173kt and

refined silver production volumes grew 31.0% yoy to 96kt due to higher

production from Sindesur Khurd mine and new Dariba lead and silver

capacities.


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July 19, 2013 3

Exhibit 3:Net sales rose by 8.4% yoy


EBITDA increases 5.2% yoy

The EBITDA margin contracted by 153bp yoy to 51.1% mainly on account of a

2.0% yoy increase in the cost of production to `46,765/tonne. Cost of production

increased primarily due to lower sulphuric acid credits and higher excavation costs,

although these were partially offset by a lower price of coal, lower specific coal

consumption and benefits accruing out of higher volumes. Mining royalty as a

percentage to sales increased to 8.6% compared to 7.5% in 1QFY2013 while

other operating income also increased by 27.7% yoy to `45cr. Hence, the EBITDA

increased by 5.2% yoy to `1,503cr.

PAT rises by 5.0% yoy

The other income rose by 8.0% yoy to `620cr while depreciation increased by

6.3% yoy to `184cr. The tax rate was at 13.9% in 1QFY2014 (13.0% in

1QFY2013). There was an exceptional item of VRS of `1cr and consequently, the

adjusted net profit grew by 5.0% yoy to `1,661cr (above our estimate of `1,617cr).

Exhibit 4:EBITDA and EBITDA margin trend


Exhibit 5:Net profit and net profit margin trend


2,8212,593

2,747

3,094

2,713 2,8223,140

3,850

2,939

(10)

10

30

50

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110

130

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1QFY12 3QFY12 1QFY13 3QFY13 1QFY14

(%)

(`cr)

Net sales yoy growth - RHS

1,592

1,465 1,402

1,659

1,4291,447

1,494

2,116

1,503

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60

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

2,100

2,400


(%)

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EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margins (RH S)

1,499 1,3691,280

1,4211,581

1,5441,613

2,183

1,661

0

10

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70

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900

1,200

1,500

1,8002,100

2,400


(%)

(`cr)

Net prof it (LHS) Ne t prof it margins ( RHS)


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July 19, 2013 4

Investment arguments

Mining in Kayad could be the next phase of growth

Since the expansion at Sindesur Khurd is complete, HZL has commenced work atits underground Kayad mine, which has 11mn tonne of high-grade reserves.

The company expects to increase its capacity from 1.0mn tonne to 5mn tonne over

the coming five years. Moreover, given the cash-rich balance sheet, HZL is actively

exploring greenfield projects through prospecting licenses and mining lease

projects across different states.

Current zinc prices near marginal cost of production

At current levels of ~US$1,900/tonne, zinc prices stand near marginal cost of

production for several zinc producers globally. Hence, we believe that the

probability of a further decline in zinc prices from the current levels remains muted.Further, over the next 3-5 years, several zinc mines are expected to be exhausted;

hence, production is likely to suffer. This should support zinc prices over the

medium term in our view.


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July 19, 2013 5

Outlook and Valuation

With a cash-rich balance sheet and strong production growth of zinc, lead and

silver over FY2013-15, we maintain our positive stance on HZL. While we expect

earnings to decline slightly during FY2014, we expect them to be higher in FY2015

on the back of improvement in both, realizations as well as volumes. HZL is

currently trading at an inexpensive valuation of 2.8x and 1.8x FY2014E and

FY2015E EV/EBITDA, respectively. Valuing the stock at 4.0x FY2015E EV/EBITDA,

we recommend Buy on HZL with a target price of `140.

Exhibit 6:Key assumptions

LME prices (US$/tonne) FY2014E FY2015EZinc 1,875 1,930

Lead 2,013 2,068

Silver (`/kg) 40,000 40,000

Sales volume (tonnes)Zinc metal 725,605 747,150

Lead metal 138,750 142,450

Integrated silver 337,000 347,000

Source: Angel Research

Exhibit 7:EPS Angel forecast vs consensus

Year (%) Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%)FY2014E 15.2 16.3 (6.5)FY2015E 17.0 16.9 0.5

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 8:EV/EBITDA band


0

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20,000

30,000

40,000

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70,000

Jan-09

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(`

cr)

2x 4x 6x 8x 10x


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July 19, 2013 6

Exhibit 9:P/E band


Exhibit 10:P/BV band


Exhibit 11:Recommendation summary

Company CMP Target Price Reco. Mcap Upside P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)(`) (`) (` cr) (%) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

Hindalco 104 - Neutral 20,270 - 7.9 7.1 0.5 0.5 6.5 5.8 7.2 7.5 5.4 5.5

Nalco 30 - Neutral 7,641 - 11.8 11.4 0.6 0.6 3.4 3.4 5.4 5.5 3.4 3.5

Sterlite 83 100 Buy 27,860 20 4.7 4.2 0.5 0.4 2.1 1.7 10.9 11.1 8.0 8.2

HZL 104 140 Buy 44,028 34 6.8 6.1 1.2 1.0 2.8 1.8 18.5 17.9 15.2 15.0Source: Company, Angel Research

Company background

Incorporated in 1966, HZL, a subsidiary of Sterlite Industries, is a vertically

integrated company with its mining and smelting operations located mainly in

Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh. HZLs current zinc reserves stand at 34.1mn tonne

with a production capacity of 1.1mn tonne of zinc p.a., indicating a mine life of 31

years. HZL currently operates two underground mines, namely Sindesar Khurd and

Rajpura Dariba, and one open cast mine - Rampura Agucha.

0

50

100

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250

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(`)

2.0x 6.0x 10.0x 14.0x

0

50100

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(`)

0.5x 2.0x 3.5x 5.0x


7/11


July 19, 2013 7

Profit & loss statement (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet sales 8,017 10,039 11,255 12,526 12,389 13,093Other operating income 122.0 0 150 174 186 205Total operating income 8,139 10,039 11,405 12,700 12,575 13,298% chg 43.3 23.3 13.6 11.4 (1.0) 5.8

Total expenditure 3,347 4,431 5,336 6,218 6,383 6,320

Net raw materials 1,961 14 312 681 0 314

Other Mfg. costs 613 803 838 920 867 887

Personnel 457 511 535 650 726 797

Other 316 3,104 3,651 3,968 4,791 4,321

EBITDA 4,792 5,608 6,069 6,482 6,192 6,978% chg 75.3 17.0 8.2 6.8 (4.5) 12.7

(% of Net sales) 58.3 55.9 52.6 50.4 48.5 51.7

Depreciation 334 475 611 647 719 790

EBIT 4,458 5,133 5,459 5,835 5,473 6,188% chg 82.0 15.1 6.3 6.9 (6.2) 13.1

(% of Net sales) 55.6 51.1 48.5 46.6 44.2 47.3

Interest & other charges 44 18 14 29 44 13

Other income 600 866 1,543 2,032 2,166 2,296

(% of PBT) 12.0 14.5 22.1 25.9 28.5 27.1

Share in profit of asso. - - - - - -

Recurring PBT 5,014 5,981 6,988 7,838 7,595 8,471% chg 49.3 19.3 16.8 12.2 (3.1) 11.5

Extraordinary inc/(exp.) - 21.2 43.1 17.5 - -

PBT (reported) 5,014 5,960 6,945 7,820 7,595 8,471Tax 973 1,059 1,419 921 1,158 1,292

(% of PBT) 19.4 17.8 20.4 11.8 15.2 15.2

PAT (reported) 4,041 4,900 5,526 6,899 6,437 7,179ADJ. PAT 4,041 4,922 5,569 6,917 6,437 7,179% chg 48.2 21.8 13.2 24.2 (6.9) 11.5

(% of Net Sales) 49.7 49.0 48.8 54.5 51.2 54.0

Basic EPS (`) 9.6 11.6 13.1 16.3 15.2 17.0Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 9.6 11.6 13.1 16.3 15.2 17.0% chg 48.2 21.3 12.8 24.9 (6.7) 11.5

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with

previous year numbers


8/11


July 19, 2013 8

Balance sheet (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 423 845 845 845 845 845Reserves& Surplus 17,701 21,688 26,036 31,431 36,335 41,982

Shareholders Funds 18,124 22,533 26,881 32,276 37,180 42,827Total Loans 60 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Deferred Tax Liability 711 945 1,109 1,280 1,280 1,280

Other long term liabilities 24 17 28 28 28

Total Liabilities 18,896 23,502 28,008 33,584 38,489 44,136APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 8,241 9,879 11,658 12,281 13,981 15,681

Less: Acc. Depreciation 2,077 2,624 3,145 3,797 4,516 5,306

Net Block 6,164 7,254 8,513 8,484 9,465 10,375Capital Work-in-Progress 1,113 595 445 1,082 1,032 982

Investments 10,949 9,335 12,695 14,540 14,540 14,540

Long term loans and adv. 617 876 1,898 1,898 1,898

Other Non-current assets 130 15 239 239 239

Current Assets 1,995 7,123 6,942 9,223 14,090 18,871Cash 928 5,633 5,255 6,942 12,539 17,336

Loans & Advances 457 286 233 393 393 393

Other 611 1,204 1,453 1,887 1,158 1,142

Current liabilities 1,326 1,551 1,477 1,881 2,775 2,769Net Current Assets 669 5,572 5,465 7,341 11,315 16,102Total Assets 18,896 23,502 28,008 33,584 38,489 44,136

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable withprevious year numbers


9/11


July 19, 2013 9

Cash flow statement( Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 5,014 5,960 6,945 7,820 7,595 8,471

Depreciation 335 475 611 647 719 790Change in working capital 173 (239) (61) (87) 1,624 9

Less: Other income (563) (835) (1,501) (1,926.9) - -

Direct taxes paid 785 1,116 1,502 1,606 1,158 1,292

Cash flow from operations 4,173 4,244 4,492 4,848 8,779 7,979(Inc.)/ Dec. in net fixed assets (2,247) (1,446) (1,668) (1,753) (1,650) (1,650)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in investments (3,922) 1,870 (2,455) (628.6) - -

(Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and adv. (96) 28 38 (96.0) - -

Other income 2,288 (4,082) 624 (852.6) - -

Cash flow from investing (3,977) (3,631) (3,461) (3,330) (1,650) (1,650)Inc./(Dec.) in loans 43 (60) - - - -

Dividend paid 198 296 1,228 1,228 1,532 1,532

Others 33 8 14 29 - -

Cash flow from financing (187) (363) (1,242) (1,257) (1,532) (1,532)Inc./(Dec.) in cash 8 250 (210) 261 5,597 4,797

Opening cash bal. 2,719 28 277 29 6,942 12,539Closing cash bal. 928 277 29 6,942 12,539 17,336

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with

previous year numbers


10/11


July 19, 2013 10

Key ratios (Standalone)

Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EValuation ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 10.9 9.0 8.0 6.4 6.8 6.1P/CEPS 10.0 8.1 7.1 5.8 6.1 5.5

P/BV 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0

Dividend yield (%) 5.8 0.7 2.3 3.0 3.0 3.0

EV/Sales 4.0 2.9 2.3 1.8 1.4 0.9

EV/EBITDA 6.9 5.2 4.4 3.6 2.8 1.8

EV/Total assets 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3

Per share data (`)EPS (Basic) 9.6 11.6 13.1 16.3 15.2 17.0

EPS (fully diluted) 9.6 11.6 13.1 16.3 15.2 17.0

Cash EPS 10.4 12.8 14.6 17.9 16.9 18.9

DPS 6.0 0.7 2.4 3.1 3.1 3.1

Book value 42.9 53.3 63.6 76.4 88.0 101.4

DuPont analysisEBIT margin 55.6 51.1 48.5 46.6 44.2 47.3

Tax retention ratio (%) 80.6 82.2 79.6 88.2 84.8 84.8

Asset turnover (x) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1

RoIC (Post-tax) 59.3 54.4 47.5 47.2 40.1 45.1

Cost of debt (post tax) - - - - - -

Leverage (x) - - - - - -

Operating RoE 59.3 54.4 47.5 47.2 40.1 45.1

Returns (%)RoCE (Pre-tax) 26.4 24.2 21.2 19.0 15.2 15.0

Angel RoIC (pre-tax) 88.5 74.3 62.3 56.7 51.3 57.3

RoE 24.9 24.1 22.4 23.3 18.5 17.9

Turnover ratios (x)Asset turnover (gross block) 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9

Inventory (days) 23 22 25 28 28 28

Receivables (days) 7 7 9 9 9 8

Payables (days) 46 39 36 36 36 36

WC cycle (days) (4) (6) 2 9 (12) (34)

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7)

Net debt to EBITDA (2.5) (2.7) (3.0) (3.3) (4.4) (4.6)

Interest coverage 101.5 280.8 391.3 200.5 125.1 472.6

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence some ratios may not be

comparable with previous year ratios


11/11


July 19, 2013 11

Disclosure of Interest Statement Hindustan Zinc

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMERThis document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investmentdecision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document shouldmake such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of thecompanies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determinethe merits and risks of such an investment.

Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in thisdocument are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions andtrading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company'sfundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliablesources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as thisdocument is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any wayresponsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.Angel Broking Pvt. Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannottestify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document.While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may beregulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment bankingor other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or

in the past.

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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates mayhave investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

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Hindustan Zinc, 1Q FY 2014

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