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www.iihs.org The Relative Safety of Large and Small Passenger Vehicles NHTSA Mass-Size Safety Symposium Washington, DC ● May 14, 2013 Joe Nolan
www.iihs.org
The Relative Safety of Large and Small Passenger Vehicles
NHTSA Mass-Size Safety Symposium Washington, DC ● May 14, 2013 Joe Nolan
www.iihs.org
Historical trends
www.iihs.org
0
20
40
60
80
1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 2010
11.0 per billion
Motor vehicle crash deaths per billion miles traveled 1950-2011
www.iihs.org
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1,501- 2,001- 2,501- 3,001- 3,501- 4,001- 4,501- 5,001- 5,501- 6,001- 6,501-
1983
1988
1998
2008
2012
Historical changes in vehicle mass Cumulative percent of passenger vehicles by weight (lbs.)
www.iihs.org
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1983
1988
1998
2008
2012
Historical changes in vehicle size Cumulative percent of passenger vehicles by shadow (sq ft)
www.iihs.org
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500
cars and minivanspickupsSUVscar trendpickup trendSUV trend
curb weight (lbs)
Driver fatality risk by vehicle weight 20 years ago Deaths per million registration years, 1987-90 passenger vehicles during 1988-91
www.iihs.org
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500
cars and minivanspickupsSUVscar trendpickup trendSUV trend
curb weight (lbs)
Driver fatality risk by vehicle weight 10 years ago Deaths per million registration years, 1997-00 passenger vehicles during 1998-01
www.iihs.org
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500
cars and minivanspickupsSUVscar trendpickup trendSUV trend
curb weight (lbs)
Driver fatality risk by vehicle weight today Deaths per million registration years, 2007-10 passenger vehicles during 2008-11
www.iihs.org
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
cars and minivanspickupsSUVscar trendpickup trendSUV trend
vehicle shadow (sq ft)
Driver fatality risk by vehicle size today Deaths per million registration years, 2007-10 passenger vehicles during 2008-11
www.iihs.org
Changes in driver fatality risk of cars by weight Deaths per million registration years
0
50
100
150
200
2,250 2,500 2,750 3,000 3,250 3,500 3,750 4,000 4,250 4,500 4,750
1987-90 model cars during 1988-91
1997-00 model cars during 1998-01
2007-10 model cars during 2008-11
curb weight (lbs)
Small cars now as safe as big cars
20 years ago
www.iihs.org
0
50
100
150
200
70 80 90 100 110 120
1987-90 model cars during 1988-91
1997-00 model cars during 1998-01
2007-10 model cars during 2008-11
Changes in driver fatality risk of cars by size Deaths per million registration years
vehicle shadow (sq ft)
Small cars now as safe as large cars 20 years ago
www.iihs.org
Historical conclusions
• Passenger vehicles of all types and sizes provide their occupants with greater protection today than just a decade ago and much greater protection than two decades ago
• Occupants of the smallest and/or lightest vehicles still have higher death rates as occupants of the largest and/or heaviest vehicles – Some evidence the gap in death rates is narrowing
www.iihs.org
Countermeasures for improved occupant protection in a mixed-size fleet
www.iihs.org
Improved crashworthiness
www.iihs.org
Ratings in IIHS moderate overlap crash test By size, 2003 vs. 2013
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2003 2013 2003 2013 2003 2013
Small Car Midsize Car Large Car
PoorMarginalAcceptableGood
www.iihs.org
Ratings in IIHS side impact By size, 2005 vs. 2013
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005 2013 2005 2013 2005 2013
Small Car Midsize Car Large Car
PoorMarginalAcceptableGood
www.iihs.org
Improved compatibility
www.iihs.org
Enhancing vehicle compatibility (EVC) WG Voluntary design guides to improve light truck compatibility
• Goal to improve car occupant safety in crashes with a light truck (SUV and pickups)
Agreement established:
• Height-matching of light truck structure with car front structure
• Expedited fitment of side airbags with head protection in cars
• Fully adopted by MY 2010 vehicles
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Partner protection Car crash partner deaths per million registrations 1-4 year-old vehicles, 2000-01
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
<2,500 2,500- 3,000- 3,500- 4,000- 4,500- 5,000+
carSUVpickup
www.iihs.org www.iihs.org
Partner protection Car crash partner deaths per million registrations 1-4 year-old vehicles, 2008-09
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
<2,500 2,500- 3,000- 3,500- 4,000- 4,500- 5,000+
carSUVpickup
www.iihs.org www.iihs.org
Partner protection in front-to-front crashes Car crash partner deaths per million registrations 1-4 year-old vehicles, 2000-01
0
10
20
30
40
50
<2,500 2,500- 3,000- 3,500- 4,000- 4,500- 5,000+
carSUVpickup
www.iihs.org www.iihs.org
Partner protection in front-to-front crashes Car crash partner deaths per million registrations 1-4 year-old vehicles, 2008-09
0
10
20
30
40
50
<2,500 2,500- 3,000- 3,500- 4,000- 4,500- 5,000+
carSUVpickup
www.iihs.org www.iihs.org
Partner protection in front-to-side crashes Car crash partner deaths per million registrations 1-4 year-old vehicles, 2000-01
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
<2,500 2,500- 3,000- 3,500- 4,000- 4,500- 5,000+
carSUVpickup
www.iihs.org www.iihs.org
Partner protection in front-to-side crashes Car crash partner deaths per million registrations 1-4 year-old vehicles, 2008-09
0
10
20
30
40
50
<2,500 2,500- 3,000- 3,500- 4,000- 4,500- 5,000+
carSUVpickup
www.iihs.org www.iihs.org
Partner protection in front-to-front crashes Car crash partner deaths per million registrations 1-4 year-old SUVs and pickups
0
20
40
60
80
<2,500 2,500- 3,000- 3,500- 4,000- 4,500- 5,000+
SUVs in 1990-91
SUVs in 2000-01
SUVs in 2008-09
pickups in 1990-91
pickups in 2000-01
pickups in 2008-09
www.iihs.org www.iihs.org
Partner protection in front-to-side crashes Car crash partner deaths per million registrations 1-4 year-old SUVs and pickups
0
20
40
60
80
<2,500 2,500- 3,000- 3,500- 4,000- 4,500- 5,000+
SUVs in 1990-91
SUVs in 2000-01
SUVs in 2008-09
pickups in 1990-91
pickups in 2000-01
pickups in 2008-09
www.iihs.org
Insurance claims by size
www.hldi.org
0
40
80
120
160
Relative collision claim frequencies By body style and size class, 2000-02 models
2dr cars 4dr cars large/ cargo vans
SUVs pickups luxury cars
sports cars
station wagons, minivans
special cars
specialty trucks
mini small midsize large very large
100 = all-passenger-vehicle result of 8.7
www.iihs.org
Relative collision claim frequencies By class and size, 2010-12 models
0
40
80
120
160
100 = all-passenger-vehicle result of 6.9
micro mini small midsize large very large
2dr cars 4dr cars luxury SUVs
SUVs pickups luxury cars
sports cars
station wagons, minivans
www.iihs.org www.iihs.org
Why the change in collision trends by size?
• ESC – Is it possible that smaller wheelbase vehicles experience more benefit?
• Improvements in small vehicle handling?
• Changing demographics – Commuters downsizing vehicles?
• Economic factors – Less discretionary travel?
– Censoring claims to avoid insurance penalty?
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Summary of countermeasures that help equalize occupant safety in a mixed-size fleet • Crashworthiness improvements, especially for smallest vehicles
– Strong front, side, roof structures
– Head-protecting side airbags with rollover deployment
• Better light truck compatibility with cars
– Lowering light truck structure to car levels
• Electronic stability control
• Continued improvement in belt use rates
www.iihs.org www.iihs.org
Thoughts for the future
• Disparate size & weight vehicles will always exist in the fleet
• Smaller and lighter vehicles will always have some disadvantage
BUT,
• Advanced structural engineering and technology innovations have improved the fleet compatibility and occupant protection across all vehicle sizes
• Advanced crash avoidance and mitigation will help, especially if fitted to the most vulnerable vehicles
– Counter to industry trend of fitting expensive technologies to larger (and more expensive) vehicles first
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