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Holiday ecommerce revealed Brands generating over $10M/year in revenue share their plans, strategies, and insights
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Page 1: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Holiday ecommerce revealedBrands generating over $10M/year in revenue share their plans, strategies, and insights

Page 2: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

ContentsHoliday ecommerce at scale 3

Black Friday Cyber Monday planning 4

Top holiday ecommerce concerns 5

New customer acquisition channels 9

Existing customer acquisition channels 13

Holiday offers, deals, and discounts 17

Sales channels for direct purchases 22

Inventory planning and management 27

Navigating Amazon 29

Seasonal sales by quarter 31

Analytics tools to monitor and optimize 32

Holiday sales projections 33

About the study 34Co

nten

ts

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Page 3: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Holiday ecommerce at scaleWhen it comes to holiday ecommerce, advice and general best practices are everywhere.

The right advice from the right people on how they're planning to dominate the biggest online shopping season of the year is rare.

What if you could look inside the ecommerce holiday plans, strategies, and benchmarks of businesses generating over $10 million in annual revenue?

We collected proprietary data from more than 50 high-growth businesses on 11 of the most critical questions about the busiest ecommerce season of the year.

These are industry leaders revealing what's working, what isn't, and how they're planning to win the holidays… so you can, too.Even better, a number of those CEOs, founders, and ecommerce leaders agreed to share their word-for-word advice on two of the toughest high-volume challenges online retailers face: (1) preparing inventory and (2) navigating Amazon.

Let's start with the big picture…

Hol

iday

eco

mm

erce

at s

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Page 4: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Black Friday Cyber Monday planningWhen do you typically begin planning your Black Friday Cyber Monday marketing campaigns and strategies?

While it's true that the holidays seem to come faster every year, if you've put off your 2018 planning… you're far from alone. September is the number one month when planning begins, followed by October.

Only 6% of large merchants are early birds — i.e., they begin planning in Q1. Surprisingly, over 25% start inside of Q4.

Quarterly breakdown

Q3 43.1%

Q4 25.5%

Q2 21.6%

Q1 6%

Top five months to begin holiday planning

1. September 25.5%

2. October 19.6%

3. June 15.7%

4. July 9.8%

5. August 7.8%

Jan 2%

Feb 2%

Mar 2%

Apr 2%

May 3.9%

June 15.7%

July 9.8%

Aug 7.8%

Sept 25.5%

Oct 19.6%

Nov 5.9%

Dec 0%

No BFCM marketing 3.9%

Blac

k Fr

iday

Cyb

er M

onda

y pl

anni

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Page 5: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Top holiday ecommerce concernsIn this next section, you'll find answers to…

• What holiday fears keep high-volume online businesses up at night?

• How can their number one concern also be the “most effective” new customer acquisition channel?

• Why does the answer come from a three-pronged approach to holiday marketing?

Top

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Page 6: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

How concerned are you about the following for Q4's holiday?

35.3

%

21.6

%

21.6

%

21.6

%

19.6

%

15.7

%

11.8

%

11.8

%

9.8%

37.3

%

27.5

%

52.9

% 58.8

%

45.1

%

25.5

%

39.2

% 45.1

%

29.4

%

37.3

%

27.5

%

51%

25.5

%

19.6

%

35.3

%

58.8

%

49%

43.1

%

60.8

%

60.8

%

Rising ad

spend

Customer s

ervice needs

Invento

ry

Returns

Competition fr

om other m

erchants

Post-holid

ay re

tention

Competition fr

om mark

etplac

esFra

ud0

20

40

60

80

100 Top five concerns for holiday ecommerce1

1. Rising ad spend 80.4%

2. Customer service needs 74.5%

3. Inventory 72.5%

4. Shipping and fulfillment 64.7%

5. Returns 56.9%

Despite paid ads being the top-ranked “very effective” channel for new customer acquisition later on, merchants identified

“rising ad spend” as their number one concern for the holidays.

It's a telling disparity that places a premium on optimizing both off-site advertising and on-site strategies. Unfortunately, there's one more piece of bad news we need to get out of the way.

1 Concerned is used here as the sum of “Very concerned” and “Concerned” from the survey

Not Concerned

Concerned

Very Concerned

Top

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Page 7: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

While total revenue, conversion rates, and ad spend all skyrocket over the holidays… average order value does not:

$84.00 Q4 AOV US ecommerce average

$122.50 Q4 AOV worldwide average

$1.68 Average CPC on Facebook for Black Friday

1.45% Increase in Q4 AOV vs the US mean

0.24% Increase in Q4 AOV vs the worldwide mean

140% Increase over ecommerce's $0.70 norm

Data via Statista, Comscore, Emarketer, and Common Thread Collective

Most likely, this is due to (1) increased competition, and (2) deal hunters taking advantage of one-off sales and deep discounts.

Ways to boost AOV over the holidays1. New customer acquisition through paid advertising that begins building

audiences before costs soar (i.e., a delayed-attribution model and heavy emphasis on retargeting)

2. Existing customer re-acquisition through segmented email marketing before and during the big days that majors on past-purchases and real-time personalization

3. Holiday offers and deal structures like product bundling, tiered discounts, and shipping based on spending thresholds

We'll explore a number of ways to win the holidays along each one of those lines below.

Top

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Page 8: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

For now, what about the second-biggest concern, customer service needs?

When we asked Romain Lapeyre, CEO at Gorgias — one of two Shopify Plus Partners specializing in customer service — for recommendations on how to handle the looming influx, he offered this advice:

"Our data shows that support volume requests increase by 65% during the holiday season. Make sure to staff accordingly.

“In addition, prepare canned responses for the top three questions:

• How fast do you ship?

• How to return my order?

• How do I apply a promo code?

“Include coupon codes in agents' signatures, add a live chat to your checkout page, and set up chat popups to initiate conversations. This will dramatically help with sales.”

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Page 9: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

New customer acquisition channelsWith rising ad spend being the leading concern, next we'll answer…

• How can you get the most of out the money you put into holiday ads?

• Why is increasing AOV the key to unlocking return on ad spend (ROAS)?

• What did one company do last Black Friday to earn 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV, and 193% increase in conversions?

New

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Page 10: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

What cold-traffic (e.g., new customer) acquisition channels do you plan to use and how would you rate their effectiveness?

72.5

%

58.8

%

56.9

%

41.2

%

35.3

%

31.4

%

27.5

%

25.5

%

13.7

%

13.7

%

13.7

%

11.8

%

9.8%

7.8%

5.9%

23.5

%

31.4

% 39.2

%

51%

58.8

%

31.4

%

64.7

%

37.3

% 52.9

%

21.6

%

35.3

% 43.1

%

52.9

%

31.4

%

41.2

%

35.3

%

17.6

%

13.7

%

13.7

%

47.1

%

17.6

%

11.8

%

9.8%

23.5

%

13.7

%

9.8%

7.8%

5.9%

37.3

%

7.8%

37.3

%

33.3

%

64.7

%

51%

45.1

%

37.3

%

60.8

%

52.9

%

60.8

%

78.4

%

82.4

%

82.4

%

51%

80.4

%

86.3

%

88.2

%

76.5

%

86.3

%Rad

io

Twitter p

aid

Televis

ion

Print m

edia

Amazon org

anic

Pinterest org

anic

Podcasts

(paid)

Content disc

overy

(e.g., Tab

oola, O

utbrai

n, etc.)

Amazon paid

Pinterest paid

YouTub

e paid

Twitter o

rgan

ic

YouTu

be organ

ic

Direct m

ail

Facebook o

rgan

ic

Email plac

ement adve

rtisin

g

Search org

anic (S

EO)

Instagram

organ

ic

Search paid

Instagram

paid

Facebook p

aid0

20

40

60

80

100

Will not use

Somewhat effective

Very effective

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Page 11: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Top five “very effective” new customer channels

1. Facebook paid 72.5%

2. Instagram paid 58.8%

3. Search paid 56.9%

4. Instagram organic 41.2%

5. Search organic (SEO) 35.3%

If you want new customers over the holidays, you're going to have to pay for them. No surprises there. What is surprising, however, is that Instagram outranked organic search (SEO) as the number one most effective non-paid channel.

Given that rising ad spend was the number one concern among participants, how can you be sure you're getting the most out of the money you put in?

First, buy your traffic early to build audiences on social. This can be done through engagement ads during the weeks leading up to Black Friday, in order to create product-aware audiences — i.e., custom audiences — for your holiday campaigns to later target. It can also be done by running click-through ads to build retargeting audiences.

Second, focus the lion's share of your BFCM budget on high-intent keywords. With AdWords — and its equivalents

— narrow your ads to phrases like “buy [blank product],” “best deal on [blank product],” and detailed product queries: branded terms — for you and your competitors — as well as product-specific searches (e.g., women's red canvas flats).

Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the sale), and 193% increase in conversion rate by combining advertised product bundles with a custom Black Friday landing page.

Holiday ecommerce revealed

Page 12: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Top five “will not use” new customer channels

1. Television 88.2%

2. Radio 86.3%

3. Print media 86.3%

4. Content discovery (e.g., Taboola, Outbrain, etc.) 82.4%

5. Podcasts (paid) 82.4%

Among the leading channels enterprise merchants don't plan to use, “old” media tops the list. This is likely due to two interlocking factors: prohibitive cost and the difficulty of attribution. Still, 2% of respondents said that TV and radio are

“very effective” for them, indicating that — while unlikely for all — it is a fit for some businesses.

Each of the “will not use” channels present both a challenge and an opportunity.

For online businesses, these are hands down the least crowded channels available. Tread carefully, and — if you're interested in content discovery as a method for acquisition — take a look at “Native Advertising for Ecommerce: From Content Discovery to Scaling Sales.”

Amazon and new holiday customers

Perhaps the most intriguing finding is that Amazon — which the 2018 Mary Meeker Report found controls 49% of all product discovery online — was only ranked “very effective” in paid form by 3.9% and in organic form by 2% of respondents.

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Page 13: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Existing customer acquisition channelsNew customers are seductive, but retention is how you build for the long term. With that in mind, we answer…

• Why does a single channel dominate the top two “most effective” spots?

• How can two of the least-used channels help you skyrocket abandoned cart recovery?

• What does one merchant — who 10Xed his Black Friday revenue in 2017 — say about segmentation?

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Page 14: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

What existing (return) customer acquisition channels do you plan to use and how would you rate their effectiveness?

Top five “very effective” existing customer channels

1. Segmented email offers 80.4%

2. General email offers 74.5%

3. Facebook retargeting for general site visitors 64.7%

4. Facebook retargeting for pages or products 62.7%

5. Instagram retargeting 51.0%

Behold, the almighty power of email. Segmented email offers beat out the nearest non-email competitor by 15.7%.

These responses are corroborated by revenue data, as well. Last year, across Shopify, email was the number one source of conversions during Black Friday Cyber Monday.

80.4

%

74.5

%

64.7

%

62.7

%

51%

29.4

%

15.7

%

7.8%

7.8%

17.6

%

21.6

%

29.5

%

33.3

%

41.2

%

43.1

%

25.5

%

21.6

%

19.6

%

9.8%

41.2

%

5.9%

7.8%

27.5

%

58.8

%

70.6

%

72.5

%

84.3

%

52.9

%

Facebook M

essenger

Amazon re

marketin

gSMS

Direct m

ail

Loya

lty or r

ewards p

rogram

Google Ads remark

eting

Instagram

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Facebook r

etarg

eting fo

r pag

es or p

roducts

Facebook r

etargetin

g for g

eneral si

te visit

ors0

20

40

60

80

100

Will not use

Somewhat effective

Very effective

Exis

ting

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Page 15: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Shopify's BFCM conversion rates by sourceOn the segmentation-specific front, Chase Fisher — founder and CEO of Blenders Eyewear (who 10Xed his Black Friday revenue in 2017) — said this in a recent AMA webinar:

To help you master this most effective channel, jump over to 10 Segments To Make More Money With Your Black Friday Cyber Monday Emails or Email List Segmentation Strategies For High-Volume Ecommerce Stores.

As you grow, and your audience grows, they shouldn't be getting the same messages as everybody else. You should segment certain messages to your VIP customers that are spending more each year. You should be segmenting messages differently to men and women.

4.3%

Email

3.0%

Search

2.9%

Direct

1.8%

Social

Chase Fisher CEO of Blenders Eyewear

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Page 16: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

ShopMessage has been a game changer for Pura Vida. The abandoned cart flow through Messenger totally outperforms email and gives us a deeper relationship with our shoppers. I already recommend ShopMessage to every Shopify store owner I talk to.

Top five “will not use” existing customer channels

1. Amazon remarketing 84.3%

2. SMS 72.5%

3. Direct mail 70.6%

4. Loyalty or rewards program 58.8%

5. Facebook Messenger 52.9%

We've touched on Amazon already and will have more to say later on. In this “will not use” list, the striking thing is that channels two-through-five are highly-intimate and direct forms of customer engagement and retention.

Keep “direct” marketing relevant and personal

SMS and Facebook Messenger can be powerhouses for existing customer engagement over the holidays. Just be sure you treat these mediums as designed.

DMing isn't the latest or greatest version of email marketing. Instead, use them both sparingly to (1) contact customers for whom you have strong behavioral profiles and can offer logical cross-sell opportunities, and (2) to recover abandoned carts over Black Friday Cyber Monday.

For SMS, look into Retention Rocket, and for Facebook Messenger, ShopMessage.

Griffin Thall Co-Founder of Pura Vida Bracelets

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Page 17: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Holiday offers, deals, and discountsOff-site channels can fuel traffic, but the action happens onsite. Next, we'll dig into…

• Why is the “most effective” discount also the most dangerous?

• How can the least-used offer help your business stand out this season?

• What type of discount did “extensive testing on our Black Friday deal structure” yield for one company with a 2017 run rate of $50 million? H

olid

ay o

ffers

, dea

ls, a

nd d

isco

unts

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Page 18: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

What holiday offers do you plan to use and how would you rate their effectiveness?

74.5

%

58.8

%

52.9

%

43.1

%

41.2

%

37.3

%

37.3

%

31.4

%

23.5

%

23.5

%

23.5

%

21.6

%

17.6

%

7.8%

19.6

%

21.6

%

19.6

%

19.6

%

21.6

%

33.3

%

25.5

%

15.7

%

27.5

%

27.5

%

23.5

%

19.6

%

9.8%

7.8%

17.6

%

21.6

%

25.5

%

37.3

%

39.2

%

41.2

%

29.4

%

43.1

%

60.8

%

49%

49%

54.9

%

62.7

%

84.3

%

88.2

%

No discounts

Gift w

rapping

Product b

undles

Discount t

iers by o

rder v

alue (s

pend X, sav

e Y)

Free gift

s with

purchase

BOGO

Expedite

d shipping or s

ame day

New or exc

lusive product r

eleases

Holiday

collectio

n discounts

Free sh

ipping by ord

er valu

e

Free sh

ipping on all o

rders

Coupon codes

Site-w

ide discounts

No discounts

Gift w

rapping

Product b

undles

Discount t

iers by o

rder v

alue (s

pend X, sav

e Y)

Free gift

s with

purchase

BOGO

Expedite

d shipping or s

ame day

New or exc

lusive product r

eleases

Holiday

collectio

n discounts

Free sh

ipping by ord

er valu

e

Free sh

ipping on all o

rders

Coupon codes

Site-w

ide discounts

0

20

40

60

80

100

Will not use

Somewhat effective

Very effective

Hol

iday

offe

rs, d

eals

, and

dis

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Page 19: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Top five “very effective” holiday ecommerce offers

1. Site-wide discounts 74.5%

2. Specific product discounts 58.8%

3. Coupon codes 52.9%

4. Free shipping on all orders 43.1%

5. Free shipping by order value 41.2%

Go big or go home. That's the driving take-away from site-wide discounts dominating the “very effective” holiday offers, deals, and discounts list. Even for companies that don't normally discount, Black Friday Cyber Monday offers an opportunity to do so without hurting your brand's reputation.

Unfortunately, site-wide discounts — while enticing to customers — can wreak havoc on profit margins.

Likewise, free shipping has become the norm in online shopping, and yet, it too can undercut profitability. For a detailed walkthrough on how to ensure you incentivize larger orders and protect margins, take a look at How to Calculate Free Shipping Thresholds.

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iday

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Page 20: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Top five “will not use” holiday ecommerce offers

1. Gift wrapping 84.3%

2. Product bundles 62.7%

3. BOGO 60.8%

4. Discount tiers by order value (spend X, save Y)

54.9%

5. Free gifts with purchase 49%

Excluding “no discounts” — which 11.7% of respondents called “very effective” or

“somewhat effective” — gift wrapping leads the list of holiday offers merchants do not plan to use. Depending on your vertical, this makes gift wrapping a possible point of differentiation.

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iday

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Page 21: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

AOV to win the war on ROAS

Two-through-five are heartbreaking to see in the “will not use” category. Each of these methods led to big return-on-ad-spend (ROAS) wins for multiple Shopify Plus businesses last holiday season by driving up average order value (AOV). AOV is all the more pressing given that rising ad spend was the number one concern businesses listed.

“We did some extensive testing on our Black Friday deal structure in order to optimize AOV and CVR to ensure we ended up on target,” says Rich Fulop, CEO of Brooklinen, which just last year secured $10 million in Series A funding with a $50 million run rate. “This meant testing dollar-based deals vs %-based deals at different levels in order to find the winning combination to maximize ROI.”

That testing yielded a free gift with purchase offer in conjunction with three spending thresholds for $-off discounts, which they used Shopify Scripts to implement:

• Spend $250, get $50 off

• Spend $500, get $100 off

• Spend $800, get $200 off

In a similar vein, 100% Pure created collections of deeply discounted products and then promoted and rotated them during the holiday season. The catch was, customers could only purchase items from those special collections when they passed a $45 spending threshold, unlocked at the cart-level using Shopify Scripts.

Hol

iday

offe

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, and

dis

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Page 22: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Sales channels for direct purchasesDeveloping a multi-channel strategy for the holidays is crucial, but…

• Why are the “most effective” channels also some of the least used?

• How are enterprise merchants planning to leverage native social selling?

• What marketplaces do high-growth business not plan to use this holiday season?

Sale

s ch

anne

ls fo

r dire

ct p

urch

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Page 23: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

What sales channels (i.e., for direct purchases) do you plan to use and how would you rate their effectiveness?

94.1

%

27.5

%

21.6

%

19.6

%

19.6

%

15.7

%

15.7

%

2 2

15.7

%

19.6

%

19.6

%

51%

29.4

%

5.9%

21.6

%

7.8%

41.2

%

21.6

%

5.9%

15.7

%

56.9

%

58.8

%

60.8

%

29.4

%

54.9

%

78.4

%

72.5

%

88.2

%

54.9

%

74.5

%

92.2

%

82.4

%

100%

Telemark

eting

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nline m

arkep

laces

Walmart

Buyable Pins

Facebook s

hop (nati

ve)

Ebay

Pop-up shop or IR

L eve

nt

Mobile ap

p

Wholesale (t

hrough re

tailers

or dist

ributo

rs)

Shopping on Insta

gram (p

roduct t

agging)

Amazon

Owned retai

l locati

on

Multiple ecommerce

sites

Ecommerce site

Telemark

eting

Other o

nline m

arkep

laces

Walmart

Buyable Pins

Facebook s

hop (nati

ve)

Ebay

Pop-up shop or IR

L eve

nt

Mobile ap

p

Wholesale (t

hrough re

tailers

or dist

ributo

rs)

Shopping on Insta

gram (p

roduct t

agging)

Amazon

Owned retai

l locati

on

Multiple ecommerce

sites

Ecommerce site

0

20

40

60

80

100 Top five “very effective” holiday sales channels2

1. Multiple ecommerce sites 27.5%

2. Owned retail location 21.6%

3. Shopping on Instagram (product tagging)

19.6%

4. Amazon 19.6%

5. Wholesale (through retailers or distributors)

15.7%

Will not use

Somewhat effective

Very effective

2 Excludes ecommerce site at 94.1%

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Page 24: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Comparing the percentages of “very effective” in this category against all the other questions reveals a startling pattern. Every other number-one ranked “very effective” leader was rated that way by a large majority of respondents.

Category (question) Number one “very effective” Percent

New customer acquisition Facebook paid 72.5%

Existing customer retention Segmented email offers 80.4%

Holiday ecommerce offers Site-wide discounts 74.5%

Sales channels for purchases Multiple ecommerce sites 27.5%

Within sales channels for direct purchases, multiple ecommerce stores top the “very effective” list with a mere 27.5%, while the majority of respondents reported they “will not use” multiple stores (58.8%). That same inverted relationship also applies to owned retail location, Amazon, and wholesale.

In other words, there appears to be a sharp divide between businesses that use these channels and find them “very effective” versus those that “will not” — or do not — use them at all. That divide, even among online businesses operating at or above $10 million in annual revenue, likely indicates how simultaneously difficult and lucrative future-focused approaches to commerce (namely, multi-channel, omni-channel, and online-to-offline commerce) truly are.

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Page 25: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Top five “somewhat effective” holiday sales channels

1. Shopping on Instagram (product tagging) 51%

2. Facebook shop (native) 41.2%

3. Wholesale (through retailers or distributors) 29.4%

4. Pop-up shop or IRL event 21.6%

5. Buyable Pins 21.6%

As a channel category, social selling dominated the “somewhat effective” rating. Of the three major networks, Instagram appears to show the greatest promise for merchants with 51% reporting it as “somewhat effective” and an additional 19.6% calling it “very effective.”

Facebook shops and Buyable Pins, on the other hand, look to be the champions of mediocre results with neither sales channel being used by a majority of merchants, and a mere 3.9% ranking both as “very effective.”

What makes these findings even more telling is that social advertising led the way in terms of acquisition.

All this indicates a wide disparity between social media's ability to drive sales through advertising and its ability to drive sales “natively.”

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Page 26: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Top five “will not use” holiday sales channels3

1. Walmart 92.2%

2. Ebay 88.2%

3. Other online marketplaces 82.4%

4. Mobile app 78.4%

5. Buyable Pins 74.5%

Lastly, no marketplaces — not even Amazon — will be used by a majority of large merchants this holiday season. This in no way rules out marketplaces, but it should give pause to any multi-channel strategy that sees marketplaces as nonnegotiable.

78.4

%

88.2

%

74.5

%

92.2

%

82.4

%

Other o

nline m

arkep

laces

Walmart

Buyable Pins

Ebay

Mobile ap

p0

20

40

60

80

3 Excludes telemarketing, with 100% reporting “will not use”

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Page 27: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Inventory planning and managementWhat advanced inventory procurement methods are you using to prepare for the holidays (e.g., formulas based on historical performance, projected marketing spend, pre-selling or initial offer testing, industry projections, etc.)?

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Page 28: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Brian Lim, CEO of iHeartRaves, INTOTHEAM, and EmazingLights

“Across our multiple brands and storefronts, we use an open-to-buy system that tracks sell-through rate, aged inventory, vendor sell-through, category sell-through, etc.”

Alicia Doremus, Ecommerce Manager at Import Image Racing

“Inventory formulas are based on historical performance, projected marketing spend, industry projections.”

Chase Fisher, CEO of Blenders Eyewear

“The top three factors are historical performance, year-over-year growth, and marketing spend. Based on last year's growth, we're stocking up. We're going to be ballsy on our inventory. We're going into it confident.”

Ric Kostick, CEO of 100% PURE

“We look at last year performance and adjust it up based on our sales growth goals for this year.”

Mark Goetze, CEO of Motion RC

“Advanced forecasting computations include inputs such as historical sales data, sales velocity, product age, stock outs, and product-specific trends.”

Jeremy Shute, Owner of NanaMacs

“Procurement planning is based on last year's industry trends, our own inventory trends, quantities, and marketing budgets.”

Daniel Snow Founder of The Snow Agency

“In order to prepare for the holidays, it is vital to have the marketing and logistics team on the same page. While we normally start projecting our holiday season in September — due to manufacturing turnaround times for our various products — projecting the marketing spend is crucial.

“We look at our historical increases in marketing spend relative to the previous months in order to predict future marketing spend. Due to the rapid fluctuations year-over-year in the rising costs on the Facebook ad platform, the lift in spend is the only relevant statistic in our eyes.

“Specifically, we compare the average of the previous years lift in ad spend from July-September against the holiday months (November-January) in order to accurately predict inventory needs correlated to predicted marketing spend.

“It is very important to also include January, and sometimes even February into your inventory calculations due to unforecasted delays in overseas manufacturing, customs, Chinese New Year, and any other circumstances during holiday months.”

Mitch Su, General Manager of Yaya Creations (eFavormart)

“We have a long history already, and the holiday season is actually our slowest time of the year. With the entire year behind us, it's very easy to forecast the holiday demand needs using historical and current year performance.”

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Page 29: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Navigating AmazonWhat is your brand's approach to navigating Amazon during the Q4 holidays?

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Page 30: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Daniel Snow, Founder of The Snow Agency

“Similar to on-site inventory, having allocated inventory for Amazon is crucial for a successful holiday season. We follow the same on-site strategy allocation as we do for Amazon inventory levels.

“Due to increased marketing spend and online customer behavior, Amazon sales volume increases on a correlated scale. Customers will naturally visit your website, then proceed to buy your product from your Amazon listing. As marketing spend spikes, the relative sales of your Amazon listing will spike as well.”

Alicia Doremus, Ecommerce Manager at Import Image Racing

“We list high-inventory items at MAP [minimum advertised price]. We cannot really compete on Amazon as our industry blocks multiple brands from being sold through the marketplace.”

Mark Goetze, CEO of Motion RC

“Our approach is to focus on growing our business rather than helping Amazon reach two trillion in market capitalization. We do not sell on the Amazon marketplace for three primary reasons: (1) fees are extraordinarily high, (2) their return policy is incompatible with our product segment, and (3) Amazon often undercuts sellers with their own lower price Amazon-branded products.”

Ric Kostick, CEO of 100% PURE

“Partnering with Amazon is crucial so that we have control over our brand on the channel. Likewise, so is watching margins closely because it's much lower margins than your own website. This means, still advertise but don't go crazy.”

Brian Lim, CEO of iHeartRaves, INTOTHEAM, and EmazingLights

“Make sure we send more than enough inventory well in advance to be available during Q4. We've been burned in the past with long receiving times of over four weeks. We also make sure to stay on top of our seller score and are constantly upgrading our score weekly."

Chase Fisher, CEO of Blenders Eyewear

“We don't sell on Amazon. We only sell on our own site so we focus on us not them!”

Jeremy Shute, Owner of NanaMacs

“We ‘navigate' Amazon by engaging our customers with more than just a static website. Customer experience beats Amazon in certain retail sectors.”

Mitch Su, General Manager of Yaya Creations (eFavormart)

“Both us and droppers are selling on Amazon. I see it as just another revenue generator. If we depend on Amazon for our life, that's a very dangerous life we would be living.”

Ringo Wong, Growth Hacker at Kamikoto

“We will use the Amazon Curator program to drive sales to our website.”

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Page 31: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Seasonal sales by quarterWhat quarter do you experience the largest seasonal spike in sales?

Q1 3.8%

Q2 11.8%

Q3 2.0%

Q4 80.4%

No change 2.0%

Seas

onal

sal

es b

y qu

arte

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Page 32: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Analytics tools to monitor and optimizeWhat analytics tools do you use to monitor and optimize holiday performance? Check all that apply.

II

96.1

%

92.2

%

54.9

%

19.6

%

15.7

%

15.7

%

11.8

%

7.8%

7.8%

5.9%

5.9%

2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

0

20

40

60

80

100

Google Analytic

s

Shopify an

alytic

s

Email se

rvice provid

er (ESP)

Launchpad

live das

hboard

Enterpris

e reso

urce planning (E

RP)

Hotjar

Visual

Website O

ptimize

r

Optimize

ly

Segment

Glew.io

Crazye

gg

Hubspot

MixPan

el

Fulls

tory

Heap

Custom BI

Quickbooks

Advanced Reporti

ngNone

Inhouse BI

Our own data

backe

nd

Google Optim

ize

Anal

ytic

s to

ols

to m

onito

r and

opt

imiz

e

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Page 33: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

Holiday sales projectionsWhat do you expect your Q4 holiday sales to increase by in 2018 (compared to the rest of the year)?

17.6%

<25%

7.8%

25%-50%

29.4%

50%-75%

27.5%

75%-100%

15.7%

>100%

2%

No Change

Hol

iday

sal

es p

roje

ctio

ns

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Page 34: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

About the studyThe “Holiday Ecommerce +$10M Merchant Survey” — as its original title read — was conducted between Aug. 20 and Sept. 20, 2018. Fifty-one unique respondents completed the survey.

Eligible Shopify Plus merchants were sent direct invitations based upon (1) total online store(s) revenue (GMV) at or above $10 million USD over the last 12 months (July 2017 to July 2018), or (2) total online store(s) revenue (GMV) at or above $8 million USD over the last 12 months (July 2017 to July 2018) plus supplemental revenue — i.e., brick-and-mortar and/or multi-channel sales — at or above $2 million.

To protect anonymity, the survey contained the following introductory message:

“Your name and company information will not appear in the final version of the report. By submitting answers, you agree to let Shopify Plus anonymize, aggregate, and publish the data collected herein.”

All questions in this report are presented as they originally appeared to respondents. Quoted contributions within the “inventory planning and management” and “navigating Amazon” segments were collected immediately after the initial multiple choice questions, and only there were respondents required to submit their name, title, company, and URL.

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Page 35: Holiday ecommerce revealed - Shopify · Third, optimize your holiday offering from the ad to the product to the checkout. Axe Bat earned 11.49 ROAS, 18% increase in AOV (despite the

About Shopify PlusShopify Plus is the commerce platform for high-volume merchants, coupling speed and agility with a scalable foundation to grow bigger, faster.

Sell more across social, mobile, wholesale, and marketplace channels. Customize with full code control over your frontend and checkout experience. Plus, get exclusive access to ecommerce automation tools to save time and scale easily.

Request pricing

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