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Honduras:Vulnerability assessment vs. Vulnerability post-hoc analysis
Tom Downing and Gina ZiervogelStockholm Environment Institute
Outline
Hondurus: Hurricane MitchVulnerability assessmentsPre-disaster vulnerability assessments DIPECHO World Bank Oxfam
Post-disaster assessment
Hondurus
‘Vulnerable’ countryExposure to floods and seismic activityHow is its vulnerability measured? Risk mapping tools How do they compare to what
actually happens?
Risk mapping
Identifying vulnerable regions Regional National Local
Mapping Overlaying different indicators Combining indicators to reach an
index
DIPECHO with CRED and CIFEG
Project aim Regional approach to disaster
preparedness ‘determine risk levels in the region,
taking into account natural dangers and vulnerability criteria.’
DIPECHO methods
Reports CRED, CIFEG, DHA, IDNDR and other local and
European universities
Indicators for hazards Frequency and distribution of disasters Number of people affected Geological and climatological data Vulnerability indicators Economic loss
Maps to show results
DIPECHO Risk Map
OXFAM
Project aim To develop a tool not for disaster experts
but for local experts
Objectives To assess risks, vulnerability and local capacity at a
regional level and adapted for local-level application To develop the capacity of institutions to tackle
emergency situations
OXFAM methods
Analysis of threats: incidence and distribution Natural Human agency
Analysis of vulnerability Relationship between level of risk, local capacities
and living conditions of local communities
Analysis of local capacity documented in risk map
World Bank with UNEP and CIAT
Project aim To decide where mitigation and reconstruction
projects should focus
MethodsFour layers of maps of vulnerability indices and indicators Environmental Population Social Infrastructure
World Bank Risk MapLEGEND
Red = Top ten high
risk municipalities
Orange = 10-25
Yellow = 25-60
Risk Map of Honduras – Top 60 High Risk Municipalities
Hondurus: Hurricane Mitch
October 19986000 deadDamage primarily from landslides and flooding
Pre and post vulnerability comparison
Pre-Mitch: Oxfam/World Bank Most vulnerable on west coast
Post-Mitch: World Neighbors/Morris et al Most vulnerable on east coast and
southern watershed
Other indicatorsAccessibility – World Bank Important for reaching affected
Land use – World Neighbors Sustainable farms faired better
Capacity Community disaster preparedness
Gender Lower health and educational status Harder to recover
Lessons learned
Vulnerability is a complex concept
Capturing the dynamics of specific
vulnerabilities is not easy
Is vulnerability mapping a useful
tool?