Hood County – Lake Granbury StudyEconomic Impact Study Overview

• Study Objective– Establish the baseline economic impact of Lake Granbury-related activity

using as well as consider long-term implications of low lake levels

• Study Area– Water Adjacent Property: properties immediately adjacent to Lake Granbury– Water View Property: border lake adjacent properties and within 250 ft of water– Lake-Related Activity: the combination of water adjacent and water view

• Key Questions– How important is Lake Granbury-related activity to Hood County?– Do any economic indicators show the impact of lower lake levels?

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Hood County – Lake Granbury StudySocial Impacts of Water Shortages

Socioeconomic Impacts of Projected Water Shortages for the Brazos G Regional Water Planning Area (Region G) 2011

“As the name implies, the effects of water shortages can be social or economic. Distinctions between the two are both semantic and analytical in nature – more so analytic in the sense that social impacts are harder to quantify. Nevertheless, social effects associated with drought and water shortages are closely tied to economic impacts. For example, they might include…

– demographic effects such as changes in population– mental and physical stress– loss of aesthetic and property values– reduced recreational opportunities”

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Hood County – Lake Granbury StudyFive Lake-Related Economic Indicators

• Real Estate Activity & Property Values– evaluates the distribution of households and price premium paid for lake-

related properties

• Employment & Labor Force– considers the distribution of jobs throughout the county by industry sector

• Lake-Related Taxable Hotel Revenue – is the best indicator of water-related tourism

• Lake-Related Sales Tax Revenue – serve as a proxy for how water-related tourism ripples through the economy

• Lake-Related Mixed Beverage Tax Revenue – supplements other visitor datasets

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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study1. Real Estate Activity & Property

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Hood County – Lake Granbury StudyCities & Census Designated Areas

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Hood County – Lake Granbury StudyHood County Property Values (2013)

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Area Accounts Acres % of Total Taxable Value % of Total

Water Adjacent 4,316 16,426 6.2% $1,149,155,940 28.5%

Water View 2,883 1,559 0.6% $298,057,411 7.4%

Lake-Related 6,036 17,985 6.8% $1,447,213,351 35.9%

Rest of Hood County 37,433 248,311 93.2% $2,581,871,485 64.1%

• In 2013, lake-related properties were approximately 6.8 percent of total

land area but 35.9 percent of the tax base

• Lake-related single-family homes are 28.5 percent of net taxable value

• Between 2012 and 2013, the taxable value of lake-related properties

declined 2.7 percent versus Rest of Hood decline of 1.6 percent

Hood County – Lake Granbury StudyAverage Taxable Value per Single-Family Home

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Area 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Water Adjacent $240,486 $244,242 $243,454 $246,931 $238,111

Water View $136,529 $136,076 $135,416 $134,408 $129,843

Lake-Related $211,671 $214,370 $213,563 $215,775 $207,932

Rest of Hood County $103,014 $103,759 $102,562 $101,583 $101,209

Area 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Water Adjacent $714.46 $725.62 $723.28 $733.61 $707.41

Water View $405.62 $404.27 $402.31 $399.31 $385.75

Lake-Related $628.86 $636.87 $634.48 $641.05 $617.75

Rest of Hood County $306.05 $308.26 $304.70 $301.79 $300.68

Estimated Hood County Property Tax Revenue

Hood County – Lake Granbury StudyAverage Taxable Value (2013) of Residential Properties Built between 2000 and 2012

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New Lake-Related Homes 2.5 x more $ than Rest of Hood

Hood County – Lake Granbury StudyMLS Residential Sales from January 1 - July 18

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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study2. Employment & Labor Force

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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study3. Taxable Hotel Receipts

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YearWater

AdjacentWater

ViewLake-

RelatedHood

CountyLake-Related as % of Total

2008 $1,856,832 $654,112 $2,510,944 $8,650,796 29.0%

2009 $2,712,107 $437,132 $3,149,239 $7,013,733 44.9%

2010 $3,052,213 $409,649 $3,461,862 $7,042,405 49.2%

2011 $3,290,168 $342,009 $3,632,177 $8,239,926 44.1%

2012 $3,069,122 $338,568 $3,407,690 $7,702,918 44.2%

Change 11-12 -6.7% -1.0% -6.2% -6.5% N/A

• Hotel occupancy revenue generated by Hood County businesses more

than doubled since 2000, from $3.6 million in 2000 to $7.7 million in 2012

• Lake-related lodging facilities generate approximately 44.2 percent of

taxable hotel receipts in Hood County

Hood County – Lake Granbury StudyTotal Tourism Spending By Year (Hood County)

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Category 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Spending ($M) $67.5 $57.3 $55.0 $60.4 $61.8

Earnings ($M) $15.6 $14.6 $13.4 $14.3 $14.4

Employment 596 541 496 535 515

Local Tax Revenue ($M) $1.2 $1.0 $0.9 $1.0 $1.0

State Tax Revenue ($M) $4.0 $3.6 $3.4 $3.6 $3.7

Hotel Occupancy 51.0% 35.4% 34.3% 43.6% 43.2%

Est. Room Rate $95.52 $86.88 $77.68 $74.57 $72.39

Local Tax Receipts Tax receipts collected by counties and municipalities, as levied on applicable travel-related purchases, including lodging, food and beverage service, retail goods and auto rental. Property taxes are not included.

State Tax Receipts The state hotel/motel tax, sales tax, motor fuel tax and business franchise tax receipts attributable to travel expenditures.

Hood County – Lake Granbury StudyTotal Tourism Spending By Year (City of Granbury)

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Category 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Spending ($M) $54.7 $44.0 $39.6 $44.2 $42.9

Earnings ($M) $12.9 $11.5 $10.0 $10.8 $10.4

Employment 497 428 371 407 374

Local Tax Revenue ($M) $1.1 $0.9 $0.7 $0.8 $0.8

State Tax Revenue ($M) $3.2 $2.7 $2.4 $2.6 $2.5

Hotel Occupancy 50.6% 36.2% 34.2% 43.2% 42.7%

Est. Room Rate $96.14 $87.48 $79.97 $77.52 $76.40

Local Tax Receipts Tax receipts collected by counties and municipalities, as levied on applicable travel-related purchases, including lodging, food and beverage service, retail goods and auto rental. Property taxes are not included.

State Tax Receipts The state hotel/motel tax, sales tax, motor fuel tax and business franchise tax receipts attributable to travel expenditures.

Hood County – Lake Granbury Study4. Lake-Related Sales Tax Revenue

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Hood County – Lake Granbury StudySales Tax Revenue by Subarea

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Hood County – Lake Granbury StudyHood County Sales Tax Revenue (@ 0.5%)

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YearLake-

Related DowntownNorth of

377South of

377Hood

County

Lake-Related as % of Total

2008 $628,323 $210,285 $313,565 $2,219,647 $4,594,667 13.7%

2009 $615,550 $213,645 $300,522 $2,091,166 $3,236,229 19.0%

2010 $627,599 $222,944 $284,411 $2,065,621 $2,989,420 21.0%

2011 $621,681 $228,883 $283,522 $2,095,517 $3,120,458 19.9%

2012 $608,096 $238,381 $326,836 $2,415,277 $3,877,007 15.7%

CAGR 08-12 -0.7% 2.5% 0.8% 1.7% -3.3% N/A

• Nearly 19.0 percent of all Hood County sales tax payers are lake-related

and generated $0.6 million in Hood County sales tax revenue in 2013

• Lake-related area was the only subarea to decline between 2011 and 2012

Hood County – Lake Granbury Study5. Mixed Beverage Taxable Sales

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YearWater

AdjacentWater

ViewLake-

RelatedHood

CountyLake-Related as % of Total

2008 $729,156 $2,040,633 $2,769,789 $6,193,814 44.7%

2009 $507,356 $1,784,751 $2,292,107 $5,505,025 41.6%

2010 $520,928 $1,782,703 $2,303,631 $5,373,156 42.9%

2011 $800,887 $1,725,519 $2,526,406 $5,954,200 42.4%

2012 $740,228 $1,853,800 $2,594,028 $6,054,608 42.8%

Change 11-12 -7.6% 7.4% 2.7% 1.7% N/A

• Approximately 30.8 percent of all mixed beverage permit holders are within

250 feet of Lake Granbury

• Lake-related MB permit holders capture 42.8 percent of spending

Hood County – Lake Granbury StudyTexas State Data Center Population Forecast

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Hood County – Lake Granbury StudyUndeveloped Land Surrounding Lake Granbury

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• Hood County’s population growth in driven by in-migration

(people moving to Hood County from outside of the region)

• The natural increase in population is effectively flat so it is

imperative that the region continue to attract new residents

• Approximately 27.9 percent of all single-family homes in Hood

County are lake-related

• Since 2000, nearly 24.1 percent of single-family homes built were

lake-related.

Hood County – Lake Granbury StudyUndeveloped Land Surrounding Lake Granbury

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• Low lake levels would likely impact no more than 25 percent of

future residential growth

• The natural increase in population is effectively flat so it is

imperative that the region continue to attract new residents

• Approximately 6,100 acres of undeveloped land around Lake

Granbury

• Lake-related undeveloped property (land that is within 250 feet of

the lake) accounts for roughly 1,500 acres

Hood County – Lake Granbury StudyUndeveloped Land Surrounding Lake Granbury

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Hood County – Lake Granbury StudyUndeveloped Land Surrounding Lake Granbury

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• Lake-related property values could increase between $269.8

million and $652.4 million over the next 30 years

• This would translate into additional Hood County property tax

revenue between $0.8 million and $1.9 million per year

Scenario

New Households

Acres Developed

Taxable Value($2013)

Hood County Property Tax

0.5 Scenario 1,402 751 $269,775,216 $801,478

1.0 Scenario 3,391 1,817 $652,420,219 $1,938,282

Hood County – Lake Granbury StudyReport Findings

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• Proximity to water has a clear impact on key elements of the local

economy:– tourism-related activity– property values– tax revenue

• Prolonged low lake levels undermines both:– lake is a key visitor attractor – fewer visitors means less jobs, income, and

local sales, lodging, and mixed beverage revenue– housing values also decline if the water amenity is damaged – could have an

impact on relocation, second homes, etc.

• Translation of above is a negative impact on the local economy,

as well as lower tax revenue for all local jurisdictions