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Hotel InduSTRy Overview Hoosier Hospitality Conference
Lauren Faulkner
Business Development Executive
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Today’s Agenda: March 12, 2014
• Total U.S. Review
• Top Markets Review
• Indiana Performance Overview
• Pipeline
• Forecast
3
www.hotelnewsnow.com Click on “Data Presentations”
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Total U.S. Review
5
January 2014 (12 MMA): Strongest Demand Ever
% Change
• Room Supply* 1.8 bn 0.7%
• Room Demand* 1.1 bn 2.2%
• Occupancy 62.3% 1.4%
• A.D.R.* $110 3.7%
• RevPAR* $69 5.2%
• Room Revenue* $123 bn 6.0%
January 12 MMA 2014, Total US Results * All Time High
6
Quarterly RevPAR % Change: ADR Drives Growth
8.8 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9
5.1
6.5 6.4
4.9 5.5
5.1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2011 2012 2013
* Total US, RevPAR % Change, by Quarter, Q1 2011 – Q4 2013
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Demand & Supply Move Back Towards Long Run Averages
-8
-4
0
4
8
1990 2000 2010
Supply Demand
-6.9%
-0.9%
- 4.7%
Total U.S., Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 1/2014
8.0%
2.2%
8
ADR Growth Anemic This Time Around
-10
-5
0
5
1990 2000 2010
Demand % Change
ADR % Change -4.5%
7.5% 6.8%
-8.7%
3.7%
Total U.S., ADR & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 1/2014
9
OCC Will Probably Continue To Slow. Steady ADR Growth.
-10
-5
0
5
1990 2000 2010
OCC % Change
ADR % Change
-6.7%
7.5%
6.8%
-9.7%
6.2%
Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 1/2014
4.2%
10
Positive RevPAR Growth For The Foreseeable Future
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1990 2000 2010
-16.8%
-2.6%
-10.1%
9% 8.6%
Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 1/2014
65 Months 41 Mo. 112 Months
11
Chain Scale Review
12
Scales: Upscale Supply Growth Now Noticeable
0.7
2.1
4.0
-0.7
1.7
0.6 0.7
2.7
4.4
1.4
5.7
4.6
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Supply Demand
*Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, January 2014
13
Scales: ADR Growth Strong For Luxury & Economy Hotels
0.0
0.6 0.4
2.1
4.0 4.0
5.6
3.1 2.8
2.3 2.5
3.3
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Occupancy ADR
*OCC / ADR % Change, by Scale, January 2014
14
Scales: RevPAR Catches Up To Prior Record Highs
$213
$113
$84
$62
$44 $31
$216
$116
$87
$64
$43 $30
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
2007 2013
*RevPAR $, by Scale, 2007 & 2013
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Segmentation
16
3%
4%
5%
6%
Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13
Demand
ADR
*Transient Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2012 – 1/2014
Transient Growth Rates Healthy
17
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13
Demand
ADR
*Group Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2012 – 1/2014
Is “No Group Demand Growth” The New Normal?
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Transient Occupancy Share Increases
43% 57%
2005
Group
Transient
36%
64%
2013
Group
Transient
*Transient and Group Occupancy as Share of Total OCC, 2005 and 2013
19
Transient ADR Premium Not As Strong As In Last Upturn
$10
$15
$20
$25
1 year 2 years 3 years
Starting 2005
Starting 2011
*Transient ADR Premium over Group ADR, 12 MMA, 1/05-12/07 & 1/11-1/14
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Markets
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January 2014 RevPAR: Best / Worst Performing Markets
Market RevPAR %
Change Market RevPAR %
Change
Florida Keys 23.7 Omaha, NE -5.3
San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 19.3 Central New Jersey -5.4
Philadelphia, PA-NJ 17.9 North Dakota -5.8
Denver, CO 16.5 Mississippi -6.0
Myrtle Beach, SC 16 North Carolina East -8.1
Wyoming 15.9 Pennsylvania Area -8.6 West Palm Beach
Boca Raton, FL 15.8 California North Central -9
California Central Coast 15.7 Washington, DC-MD-VA -23
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 15.2 Long Island -29.4
San Jose-Santa Cruz, CA 15.1 New Jersey Shore -32.6
22
January 2014 ADR: Best / Worst Performing Markets
Market ADR % Change Market
ADR % Change
Florida Keys 13.0 Chicago, IL -1.7
San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 11.9 Chattanooga, TN-GA -1.8
San Jose-Santa Cruz, CA 11.3 Kansas City, MO-KS -1.8
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL 10.7 Jackson, MS -1.9
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 9.7 North Dakota -2.3
Oakland, CA 9.3 Baltimore, MD -3.3
Oahu Island, HI 8.6 New Jersey Shore -4.7
Maui Island, HI 8.6 Long Island -5.6
Bergen-Passaic, NJ 7.7 California North Central -5.9
Greenville-Spartanburg, SC 7.5 Washington, DC-MD-VA -17.6
23
State of Indiana
24
Hotels 965
Rooms 84,366
STR Sample 76%
Occupancy 58.3% 1.8%
ADR $88 0.7%
RevPAR $51.12 2.6%
Room Revenue $1.2mm 3.4%
State of Indiana
Key Performance Indicators 12 Months Ending January 2014, Indiana Results
25
3.4
-1.3
-4.5
2.1
-2.5
2.9
-6.4
-9.0
-5.0
1.1
5.9 4.7
-1.2
3.5
1.1
4.9 3.7
3
6.8
0.9
4.3 3.4 5
8.5
0
1.8 1.8 0.6
2.4
Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
State of Indiana- Key Performance Indicators % Change Full Year 2008 – 2013
Moderate Growth Among All KPIs
26
-16
-8
0
8
16
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Supply % Chg Demand % Chg OCC % Chg ADR % Chg
Recovery?
Indiana: Supply, Demand, OCC, & ADR % Change Twelve Month Moving Average 2006 through January 2014
27
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Indiana: Actual ADR ($) Twelve Month Moving January 2001 thru January 2014
ADR Has Surpassed 2008 Peaks
$87
Sept. 08 $82.00
28
1.6
-1.5
4 3.9
0.1
2.6
Indiana North Indiana South Indianapolis
Occupancy ADR RevPAR
1.9
1.9
-1.4
Indiana Markets - Occ / ADR / RevPAR % Change Twelve Month Moving Average January 2014
Growth in Most Indiana Markets
29
55.2 54.9
61.8
$81.85 $81.00
$90.32
$45.19 $44.46
$55.83
Indiana North Indiana South Indianapolis
Occupancy ADR RevPAR
Indiana Markets - Occ / ADR / RevPAR Twelve Month Moving Average January 2014
Strongest Performance in Indianapolis
30
63.8
61.8
55.2
55.0
53.8
49.7
Gary MSA
Indianapolis, IN Market
Indiana North Market
Evansville-Henderson MSA
Indiana South Market
Fort Wayne MSA
-3.5%
Indiana Markets & Sub-Markets: Occupancy & % Change Twelve Month Moving Average January 2014
4%
1.6%
-0.2%
-1.9%
0.7%
Gary Highest OCC % but Indianapolis Strongest OCC Growth
31
$90.32
$81.85
$80.21
$78.59
$77.84
$72.67
Indianapolis, IN Market
Indiana North Market
Gary MSA
Evansville-Henderson MSA
Indiana South Market
Fort Wayne MSA
Indiana Markets & Sub-Markets: Actual ADR & % Change Twelve Month Moving Average Ending January 2014
-1.4%
2.3%
1.5%
4%
4.4%
1.9%
Strongest Rate Growth in Indiana South & Evansville
32
Indiana Pipeline
33
Indiana Customer Segmentation
34
Indiana: Monthly Transient Room Demand (sold) January 2007 Through December 2013
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 2011 2012 2013
Dec. 2013.
672,954
rooms sold
Tho
usa
nd
s Transient Rooms Sold in August 2013 Out Pacing Prior Years
35
Indiana: Monthly Transient ADR January 2007 Through December 2013
$70
$80
$90
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 2011 2012 2013
Dec.2012 $77.60
Transient ADR Surpasses 2007 Peaks (Mostly)
36
Indiana: Monthly Group Room Demand (sold) January 2007 Through December 2013
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 2011 2012 2013
Dec. 2012
285,396 Tho
usa
nd
s April 2013 Group Rooms Sold Out Paced Prior Years
37
Oklahoma: Monthly Group ADR January 2007 Through December 2013
$65
$75
$85
$95
$105
$115
$125
$135
$145
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 2011 2012 2013
Dec. 2013 $82.76
$136.80
Super Bowl XLVI Had Large Effect on Group ADRs
38
Indiana North
39
40
Indiana North Key Statistics Twelve Month Moving Average January 2014
% Change
• Hotels 410
• Room Supply 30,462
• Sample 72%
• Occupancy 54.5% 1.7%
• ADR $78.96 2.4%
• RevPAR $43.03 4.1%
• Room Revenue $477m 4.2%
41
55% 54%
46% 48%
50% 52%
60% 58%
53% 56% 56%
59%
35
45
55
65
75
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Weekday Weekend
60%
52%
Indiana North Weekday / Weekend Occupancy % Year End 2006 – 2013
Occupancy almost back to 2007 peaks.. Both Weekday & Weekend!
42
$76
$75
$72 $71 $73 $75 $76
$85 $82 $80
$79 $81 $83
$85
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Weekday Weekend
Indiana North- Weekday / Weekend ADR Year End 2006 – 2013
ADR Spread $6-$9
43
Indiana North
44
Indiana South
45
46
Indiana South Key Statistics Twelve Month Moving Average January 2014
% Change
• Hotels 246
• Room Supply 18,810
• Sample 71%
• Occupancy 53.8% -1.9%
• ADR $77.84 1.5%
• RevPAR $41.86 -0.4%
• Room Revenue $287m 0.4%
47
Indiana South Pipeline
48
Indianapolis, IN
49
50
Indianapolis Key Statistics Twelve Month Moving Average January 2014
% Change
• Hotels 274
• Room Supply 31,233
• Sample 86%
• Occupancy 61.8% 4.0%
• ADR $90.32 -1.4%
• RevPAR $55.83 2.6%
• Room Revenue $639m 2%
51
60%
57%
50% 52%
55% 57%
58.1
66%
63% 60%
61% 63%
68%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Weekday Weekend
58%
70%
Indianapolis Weekday / Weekend Occupancy % Year End 2006 – 2013
Weekend Occupancy Continues to Surpass Prior Peaks
52
$90
89
$82 $82 $84
$90 $90 $93
$89
$82 $81
$84
$93 $91
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Weekday Weekend
Indianapolis Weekday / Weekend ADR Year End 2006 – 2013
Very Little Difference in ADR WD vs. WE
53
4.1%
0.6%
3.6%
13.2
2.2
-2.3% -1.7%
-4.6%
-6.2
2.8 1.7%
-1.1% -1.1
6.2 5.1
IndianapolisSmalltowns
North Loop Southeast Airport/Speedway CBD
Occupancy ADR RevPAR
Indianapolis Tracts - Occ / ADR / RevPAR % Change Twelve Month Moving Average January 2014
Indianapolis Airport/Speedway Largest RevPAR Growth
54
Indianapolis Market Breakdown - Occ / ADR / RevPAR Twelve Month Moving Average January 2014
55.7 61.3 58.4 59.1
70.4 $70.83
$82.12
$60.69
$69.33
$140.24
$39.45
$50.35
$35.42 $40.95
$98.68
Indy Smalltowns North Loop Southeast Airport/Speedway CBD
Occupancy ADR RevPAR
55
Indianapolis Pipeline
Project Name Room Count Open Date
Holiday Inn
122 February 2015
Suburban Extended Stay 119
December 2014
Courtyard by Marriott 92
May 2014
Hampton Inn 100
March 2014
Sleep Inn 91
May 2014
56
Pipeline
57
US Pipeline: Construction Accelerates
Phase 2014 2013 % Change
In Construction 96 72 34%
Final Planning 137 96 42%
Planning 123 137 -10%
Active Pipeline 357 307 16%
*Total US Pipeline, by Phase, ‘000s Rooms, January 2014 and 2013
58
Under Construction Rooms Mostly In Middle Segments
4.6
8.0
35.7
28.9
5.1
1.2
13.3
Luxury UpperUpscale
Upscale UpperMidscale
Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
*US Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, January 2014
67%
59
Construction In Top 26 Markets: 12 With 2%+ Of Supply
*US Pipeline, Top 26 Markets, U/C Rooms as % of Existing Supply, January 2014
Market Rooms UC % Of Existing Las Vegas, NV 169,480 0.0%
Oahu Island, HI 29,337 0.0%
Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA 38,537 168 0.4%
Minneapolis-St Paul, MN-WI 38,450 190 0.5%
San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 51,167 312 0.6%
Phoenix, AZ 62,061 438 0.7%
Detroit, MI 41,980 384 0.9%
Atlanta, GA 93,713 899 1.0%
Tampa-St Petersburg, FL 44,297 471 1.1%
San Diego, CA 59,162 734 1.2%
St Louis, MO-IL 38,007 538 1.4%
Chicago, IL 109,180 1,671 1.5%
Dallas, TX 78,384 1,299 1.7%
Philadelphia, PA-NJ 45,524 778 1.7%
Orlando, FL 118,462 2,358 2.0%
Boston, MA 51,086 1,043 2.0%
New Orleans, LA 37,470 866 2.3%
Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA 54,186 1,287 2.4%
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 97,702 2,323 2.4%
Washington, DC-MD-VA 105,663 2,965 2.8%
Nashville, TN 37,620 1,127 3.0%
Houston, TX 75,109 2,361 3.1%
Miami-Hialeah, FL 48,817 1,706 3.5%
Seattle, WA 40,734 1,914 4.7%
Denver, CO 41,496 2,193 5.3%
New York, NY 109,852 12,201 11.1%
60
2014 / 2015 Forecast
61
Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2014F by Chain Scale
2014 Year End Outlook
Chain Scale Occupancy
(% chg) ADR
(% chg) RevPAR (%chg)
Luxury 1.6% 4.8% 6.5%
Upper Upscale 0.1% 4.4% 4.5%
Upscale 2.2% 4.2% 6.6%
Upper Midscale 0.5% 3.2% 3.7%
Midscale 0.9% 3.1% 4.1%
Economy 1.7% 3.3% 5.1%
Independent 0.6% 4.5% 5.1%
Total United States 1.1% 4.2% 5.3%
*as of January 24th, 2014
62
Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2015F by Chain Scale
2015 Year End Outlook
Chain Scale Occupancy
(% chg) ADR
(% chg) RevPAR (%chg)
Luxury 0.8% 4.8% 6.0%
Upper Upscale 0.2% 4.4% 4.6%
Upscale 0.5% 4.2% 5.1%
Upper Midscale -0.4% 3.2% 2.1%
Midscale 0.2% 3.1% 3.5%
Economy 2.6% 3.3% 6.2%
Independent -0.1% 4.5% 4.3%
Total United States 0.5% 4.2% 4.7%
*as of January 24th, 2014
63