Horizon 2035: Developing a long-term strategic vision for the health, social care and public health...

www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk

Horizon 2035: Developing a long-term strategic vision for the health, social care and public health workforce in England

Matt Edwards, Tom Lyscom, John Fellows, Dr Graham Willis, Dr Siôn Cave Centre for Workforce Intelligence, [email protected]

www.cfwi.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk


Rethinking health and care workforce planning

Let’s begin with four embarrassing admissions.


Admissions

Focusing on just numbers doesn't work.Our system doesn't know what skills and competences are needed in future.Our system doesn't know who is best to provide them.What they cost or if we can afford them.


A new challenge: Horizon 2035

What skills and competences do we have?

What might we need in future?


Our approach to strategic planning

Understand the system

Explore the future

Simulate the possibilities

Make robust responses

Focal question

Transparent and participatory


Consider the whole system

Health

Public health

Social care

Headcount of over 11m

5%

Other health and support

11%

Paid adult care and support

27%

Volunteer adult care and support

50%

Unpaid adult care and support

7%

Dentists, Doctors, Midwives, Nurses, Pharmacists


Skills and competences

Competences

Skills

FacilitationLeadershipWellbeing

Knowledge Personal

Types of skill

Level of skillLow to High

Workforce activity

Workforce attributes


What drives the demand for skills?

Demand for skills

Long-termconditions

Infectiousdiseases

Births

Public health /

prevention


What drives the supply of skills?

Supply of skills

Skill mix

Education &training

Workforcesupply

Capacityto learn


Scenarios – Horizon 2035

Published March 2015http://www.horizonscanning.org.uk/our-research/horizon-2035/scenarios/


A new framework

Po

pu

lati

on

Learning disabilities

Oral health

Singular demand for service

Maternal and perinatal

Infectious disease

Mental Health LTCs

Physical LTCs

Skill level: 1 2 3 4 5 6

Increasing concentration and experience

Prevent

Enable

Assess

Plan

Treat

Rehabilitate

Relieve

Link

Unpaid adult social care workforce

Nurses

Dentists

Medical generalists

Medical specialists

Volunteer care and support workforce

Other workforce groups x10

Horizon 2035 workforce groups


Framework + system = insights

NumbersSkillsCosts

Supply Demand

People and skills?

Workforce groups?

Training?

Education?

Money?

Future challenges?

Skills gap and

overlaps?

Ideal skill mix?


Model structure

SUPPLY COMPONENT

DEMAND COMPONENT

Demand sector

Wellness sector

Population sector

Skill allocation sector

Workforce capability sector

Workforce size sector


Future demand for skillsSk

ill h

ou

rs/Y

ear

(B

illio

ns)

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Time (Year)

Probability: 80% 100%Central estimate:

www.horizonscanning.org.uk

Components of change: business as usual

Pop

ula

tio

n

Wel

lnes

s

Serv

ice

Pro

du

ctiv

ity 2013

2035

(median projections)

By scenario


Big questions

Will the cost of meeting future health and care needs be affordable?Will this be value for money?What is the best mix of people, numbers and skills?


Horizon 2035: Developing a long-term strategic vision for the health, social care and public health workforce in England

Matt Edwards, Tom Lyscom, John Fellows, Dr Graham Willis, Dr Siôn Cave Centre for Workforce Intelligence, [email protected]

www.cfwi.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk

Date post:	09-Aug-2015
Category:	Healthcare
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Horizon 2035: Developing a long-term strategic vision for the health, social care and public health...

Healthcare