The 2012 Horizon Report :

a University System of New

Hampshire discussionApril 20, 2012

The limits of emergent

Futuresmethods

Extrapolation Environment

al scan Futures

market Scenarios Delphi

Caveat: wild cards and Black Swans

Extraordinary political or economic event

Technology breakthrough (ex: AI)

iPhone Apps Store downloads1.April 2009 1.0 billion2.July 2009 1.5 billion3.Sept 2009 2.0 billion4.Dec 2009 …?

-works with data sources-can lead to more data-gathering, metrics

Facebooks’ ascent

Tweak to contexts

What are some metrics you use for

extrapolation?

Environmental scanning

Multiple sources

Should belongitudinal

Scan 2.0: crowdsourcing Social

networks Iterated

resource feeds

Scanner contributes content

Dynamic social media venue

Is there a higher education bubble?

Digital humanities on the rise

Adjunctification continues

Alternative online learning

Textbooks going ebook+

Scholarly publication and/versus open access

Higher education budgets

Computer hardware ecology

Has the World Wide Web hit its limit?

January-Feb 2012 scan sample

Augmented reality mainstreamed

Social organization through social media

Some tuition freezes, cuts

Intergenerational tensions: public + private

International liberal education

Maker culture on campus

High-speed trading

Global economic stresses

Rise of natural gas

March 2012 scan sample

Next 20 years? Screening Interacting Sharing Flowing Accessing Generating

-Kevin Kelly

Pattern recognition:Deductions from scanning

Pick one story from the past month which seems to

suggest a developing trend.

Futures markets Propositions in time Shares to be traded

Will 25 or more institutions be

participating in Flickr’s Creative Commons

project by March 26, 2009?

Futures markets Quant. +

Qual. Affordances of

play

Continuous Distributed

feedback

Which alternative to PowerPoint will become

most widely used on campuses?

Scenarios Stories about futures Event and response Creativity

Roles and times Emergent practices

and patterns

Scenarios

Build upon other methods: Select drivers –

environmental scan Identify trends – Delphi

reports Test trends - extrapolation Test propositions –

prediction markets

Delphi

Assemble experts

Probe for opinions

Rank and distill ideas

Reiterate

Example: the Horizon Report “[A] comprehensive review and analysis of

research, articles, papers, blogs, and interviews

[We] discussed existing applications and brainstormed new ones.

A key criterion was the potential relevance of the topics to teaching, learning, research, and creative expression.

Iteration, ranking, reiteration, reranking”

Key Trends People expect to be able to work, learn, and study whenever and wherever they want to.

The technologies we use are increasinglycloud-based, and our notions of IT supportare decentralized.

The world of work is increasingly collaborative,driving changes in the way student projects arestructured.

The abundance of resources and relationships made easily accessible via the Internet is increasingly challenging us to revisit our roles aseducators.

Education paradigms are shifting to includeonline learning, hybrid learning and collaborative models.

There is a new emphasis in the classroom on more challenge-based and active learning.

Significant Challenges

Economic pressures and new models of education are bringing unprecedented competition to the traditional models of higher education.

Appropriate metrics of evaluation lag the emergence of new scholarly forms of authoring, publishing, and researching.

Digital media literacy continues its rise inimportance as a key skill in every discipline and profession.

Institutional barriers present formidablechallenges to moving forward in a constructiveway with emerging technologies.

New modes of scholarship are presenting significant challenges for libraries and university collections, how scholarship is documented, and the business models to support these activities.

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