HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS: CALIFORNIA

Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

January 2012

National Trends

Composition of distressed sales by geography

22%

12% 12% 18%

15% 15% 10% 12%

7% 7%

22%

17% 15%

20%

17% 16% 22%

10%

8% 11%

17%

28% 28%

14%

16% 18% 10%

15%

15% 5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Short Sale

Move-In Ready REO

Damaged REO

Proportion of Distressed Property Transactions – December 2011

Perc

ent o

f To

tal T

rans

actio

ns

Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions December 2011

Neighborhood stabilization: concerns over investor purchases of distressed properties

20%

30% 32%

53%

23%

49% 39%

33% 57%

21% 29%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Damaged REO

Move-In Ready REO

Short Sale Non-Distressed

Investor

First-Time Homebuyer

Current Homeowner

Perc

ent

of P

rope

rty T

ype

Who Is Buying Properties?─December 2011

Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions December 2011

Financing for home purchases

28%

11%

74% 20% 53%

3%

19%

12%

6%

5%

7%

28%

18% 16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Current Homeowners First-Time Homebuyers Investors

All Other Financing

VA

Fannie/Freddie

FHA

Cash

Perc

ent

of B

uyer

-Sid

e Tr

ansa

ctio

ns

Financing for Homebuyers─December 2011

Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions December 2011

California Trends

California’s unemployment rate declining but still well above national average

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Recession

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

United States

California

California house prices appear to be stabilizing

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

FHFA

Hou

se P

rice

Inde

x 20

00=

100

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly)

California

United States

Northern California house prices steady

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

FHFA

Hou

se P

rice

Inde

x 20

00=

100

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

FHFA House Price Index: Northern California (2000 = 100)

Oakland

Sacramento

San Francisco

Housing markets in the Central Valley saw greatest declines, but also starting to stabilize

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

FHFA

Hou

se P

rice

Inde

x 20

00=

100

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index: Central California (2000 = 100, quarterly)

Fresno

Merced

Stockton

Visalia

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

FHFA

Hou

se P

rice

Inde

x 20

00=

100

Southern California MSA house prices also seem to be stabilizing

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

FHFA House Price Index: Southern California (2000 = 100, quarterly)

San Diego

Inland Empire

Los Angeles

Ventura

Number of properties in foreclosure increased slightly at the end of 2011

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Num

ber o

f M

ortg

ages

Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past Due

State & Local Data Maps

California Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics

Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2011

California Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics

Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2011

Northern California Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics

Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2011

Northern California Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics

Areas At Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2011

Sacramento Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics

Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2011

Sacramento Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics

Areas At Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2011

Central California Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics

Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2011

Central California Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics

Areas At Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2011

Southern California Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics

Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2011

Southern California Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics

Areas At Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2011

Inland Empire Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics

Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2011

Inland Empire Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics

Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2011

San Diego Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics

Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2011

San Diego Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics

Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures November 2011

Conclusions

For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website

Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies

All publications, presentations available on our website

Conference materials also posted shortly after events

http://www.frbsf.org/community/