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    August 2010 2010, Greater Houston Partnership

    A publication of the Greater Houston Partnership Volume 19, Number 8 August 2010

    Drilling Moratorium Impact Since the Obama Administration issued its banon deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, there have been numerous studies onthe moratoriums impact upon the energy industry and the economy. Joseph R.Mason, an economist at Louisiana State University, estimates that the Gulf states(Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas) will lose 8,169 jobs, $2.1 billion ineconomic output, and $487 million in wages. Texas share of that loss: 2,492 jobs,

    $622 million in gross domestic product, and $153 million in wages. If the mora-torium lasts more than six months, the losses would at least double or triple, Masonnotes.

    In June, Morgan Stanley released a study suggesting three different scenarios forwhen deepwater drilling would resume:

    o Bull Case: The presidential commission studying the blowout completes its re-view and makes recommendations in six months. Congress enacts new rulesand regulations in the following two months. Drilling resumes soon afterward.Morgan Stanley gives this scenario a 5 percent likelihood of happening.

    o Bear Case: The commission takes 12 months to review safety procedures andmake recommendations. Congress bogs down in debate. Two years elapse be-fore new regulations are issued. Another 12 months elapse before rigs return tothe Gulf. Morgan Stanley gives this scenario a 35 percent likelihood.

    o Base Case: The commission completes its work in six months. Congress takessix to 12 months to pass legislation. Although some rigs have moved out of theGulf, activity resumes soon after legislation passes. Morgan Stanley gives thisscenario a 60 percent likelihood.

    The study also suggests the moratorium will have the greatest impact upon the sub-

    sea equipment makers and offshore drillers. Smaller service companies and land-focused drillers will not be affected.

    An IHS Global Insight study, commissioned by Houston-based Cobalt Energy, es-timates that offshore activity supports 382,250 direct, indirect and induced jobs,adds $69.8 billion to the U.S. economy, and generates $30.1 billion in wages andsalaries. The independent energy firms are responsible for approximately half ofthat employment, wages and impact to the U.S. economy. If Congress enacts rules

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    August 2010 2010, Greater Houston Partnership

    so arduous that independents can no longer work offshore, their contributions tothe economy would be at risk.

    Most studies have dealt with the moratoriums impact at the state, national and in-dustry level. If a detailed study has been completed on Houston, the GHP researchdepartment has yet to find it. (If you have one, please share it with us.) Most im-pact figures that are cited are anecdotal or from news reports. Last week, BakerHughes announced the drilling ban would force it to move 300 Gulf workers over-seas. In a recent meeting with the real estate firm CB Richard Ellis, several brokersnoted tenants asking for short-term renewals on their leases. They were reluctant tocommit to long-term contracts until the impact of the moratorium is more apparent.

    One study that went almost unnoticed was the Energy Information Admin-istrations International Energy Outlook 2010. EIA noted that worldwide energyconsumption, on a BTU basis, is projected to grow by 49 percent from 07 to 35.Worldwide demand for liquid fuels and other petroleum products will grow 29

    percent, from 86.1 million barrels per day in 07 to 110.6 million in 35. World-wide demand for natural gas is projected to grow 44 percent, from 108 trillioncubic feet in 07 to 156 trillion cubic feet in 35. The United States faces toughcompetition for oil and gas supplies on the world market. The Gulf of Mexico ac-counts for 30 percent of the crude and 13 percent of the natural gas produced in theUnited States. If U.S. policy shuts down exploration and production in the Gulf,that would have dire consequences for U.S. energy supply and energy security.

    Employment Continues to Recover The Texas Workforce Commissionreports that the Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown Metropolitan Statistical Area creat-ed 600 net new jobs in the month of June, marking the fifth consecutive month of

    job gains. Though the net increase is small a look at the details suggests a som-ewhat different picture.

    o Sector Gains and Losses: The private sector created 13,100 jobs in June withsolid gains in several sectorsleisure and hospitality (3,100 jobs); professionaland business services (2,600 jobs); trade, transportation, and utilities (2,600

    jobs); manufacturing (1,700 jobs) and oil and gas (1,200 jobs). These gainswere offset by losses of 12,500 government jobs. Federal employment fell (-4,200 jobs) as Census workers finish their contracts and educational em-ployment dropped (-9,200 jobs) because of teachers and support staff on 10-

    month contracts.

    The offset illustrates the challenge of working with seasonally unadjusted em-ployment data. As teachers leave school for the summer holidays their entry in-to the job market, albeit temporary, pulls down the job numbers while hotelsand restaurants hiring for the vacation season lift the numbers. In the fall, thetwo will swap places. Leisure and hospitality employment will decline whileemployment in education will rise.

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    o Employment Trends: Employment in health care and social assistance con-tinued to grow throughout the recession, thanks to Houstons growing andaging population. Over the past 12 months, the sector added 9,000 jobs. Miningemployment has also held up well. In Houston, energy employment is moreclosely tied to worldwide activity than to anything else. The energy sector has

    added 1,200 jobs over the past 12 months.Changes over the past 12 months or from a specific point in time offer a betterinsight into employment trends.

    For the 12 months ending June 10, the Houston region lost 17,400 jobs, or aloss of 0.7 percent. As recently as December, the 12 month loss was 92,500

    jobs, or 3.5 percent.

    Private sector employment peaked at 2,268,500 jobs in August 08 andtrended downward for 17 months, bottoming out at 2,106,100 jobs in

    January 10. Since January, the private sector has regained 42,700 of the162,000 private sector jobs lost in the recession or about 26 percent of thetotal. Again, these are seasonally unadjusted numbers.

    The recovery, though slow, continues across the nation. Eight of the nations large-st metro areas now show over-the-year job growth. Houston is among 13 largemetros that have over-the-year losses of less than 1 percent. Jobs losses for alllarge metros, those with 1.5 million or more in population, are now less than 3percent.

    Unemployment Rate Houstons June unemployment rate stood at 8.8 percent.

    The unemployment rate for Austin was 7.4 percent, for Dallas-Fort Worth, 8.5percent, and for San Antonio 7.1 percent. McAllen had the highest unemploymentrate in the state at 12.2 percent and Midland had the lowest at 5.9 percent. The un-employment rate for Texas stood at 8.5 percent and for the United States at 9.6percent. (All rates are not seasonally adjusted.)

    Office Market Remains Weak, Industrial Market Improving The officemarket remains weak while the industrial market shows signs of improvement,according to Lynn Cirillo with CB Richard Ellis. The number of office leasessigned in the first half of the year is up but net absorption is down as tenantsdownsize their space and take advantage of incentives such as free rent, abatedparking, and flexible contract terms offered by landlords to keep tenants in theirspaces. Though several submarkets reported positive net absorption this year, nota-bly the Energy Corridor and FM 1960/Highway 249 area, the market overall re-ported a negative net absorption of 645,000 square feet, which represents about 0.3percent of the 190.2 million square feet of available space in Houston. Occupancyhas declined for six consecutive quarters and the trend is anticipated to continueuntil the economy strengthens, Cirillo notes.

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    The industrial market absorbed 2.7 million square feet of space during the first sixmonths of 10, moving the vacancy rate from 7.1 percent in the first quarter to 7.0percent at the end of the second. As in the office market, tenants are receivingconcessions such as free rent or increased tenant improvement dollars as landlordsnegotiate early renewals to insure cash flow and continued occupancy. The in-

    dustrial market should continue to tighten as only 417,000 square feet of space isunder construction, the U.S. economy continues to recover, and activity in the Portof Houston grows.

    New Vehicle Sales Up Total monthly sales volume of new cars, trucks andSUVs in the Houston region increased from 13,474 vehicles in June 09 to 16,642vehicles in June 10, according to TexAuto Facts Reportpublished by InfoNation,Inc. of Sugar Land. This represents a 23.5 percent increase over the same monthlast year. Nationally, sales increased 14 percent for June 10 compared with June09.

    Average sales price for the Houston region in June 10 was $31,334, an 8.3 percentincrease from the pre-recession price base of June 07 when the average vehiclesales price was $28,932.

    Houston region truck/SUV sales continue to be significantly higher than the natio-nal trend. In 09, truck/SUV market share was at 54.8 percent in the Houston re-gion while national truck/SUV sales were 46.6 percent in the first-half of 10.

    Houston Airport System Posts Gains The Houston Airport System postedyear-to-year gains in passenger volume and air freight in June 10.

    Passenger volume rose 1.6 percent over June 09, as 4.5 million passengers passedthrough Houstons commercial airports. Domestic volume had a 1.0 percentincrease, while international volume rose 5.1 percent. International passenger vol-ume has had year-to-year gains since September 09. This June saw internationalpassengers account for 17.1 percent of total passengersone of only 10 monthssince 1980 where the international share has accounted for 17 percent or more oftotal passengers.

    Landings and takeoffs fell 5.2 percent shy of the June 09 total. Air freight volume,however, posted a 17.3 percent increase for the month.

    Postings and Foreclosures Drop Harris County foreclosures totaled 1,252 inJuly 10, down 2.0 percent from July 09, while July 10 postings totaled 4,092,down 8.4 percent from last July, reports Foreclosure Information & ListingService.

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    A posting for foreclosure occurs when a property in default is scheduled for sale ata monthly foreclosure auction. A foreclosure occurs when the lienholder assumesownership of a property in default.

    Since April 10, the postings 12-month running total has been trending downward.The 12-month running total for foreclosures appears to have stabilized over thesame time period.

    While there will continue to be some volatility in posting activity, totals shouldcontinue to stabilize contingent upon the admittedly anemic recovery from therecession, notes the service.

    Other good news is that the ratio of foreclosures to postings remains low, indi-cating that a large share of problem loans continues to be resolved before actualforeclosure. Over the past five years, the ratio has been as high as 49 percent, butsince January the 12-month ratio has hovered around 27 percent.

    Foreign Trade Continues to Rise The Houston-Galveston Customs Districthandled foreign trade valued at $18.3 billion in May, up 42 percent from $12.8billion in May 09, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Exports totaled $7.9billion, up 26 percent from $6.3 billion in May 09. Imports totaled $10.4 billion,up 57 percent from $6.6 billion in May 09. Foreign trade has been trendingupward since bottoming out in February 09.

    For the first five months of 10, trade totaled $88.9 billion, up 34 percent from$62.7 billion last year. Exports were $36.9 billion, up 29 percent from $28.7 billionlast year. Imports were $46.9 billion, up 38 percent from $34.0 billion last year.

    Fuel oils, chemicals, plastics, industrial machinery, boats, cereals and vehiclescomprise the bulk of the goods passing through the Houston-Galveston CustomsDistrict. The recent surge in exports and imports reflects the improving U.S. andglobal economies. However, economists have expressed concern over importsrising faster than exports, indicating that foreign trade could pull down the nationsgrowth in the second quarter.

    Oil Prices Remain Strong The Friday closing spot market price for WestTexas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) averaged 77.49 a barrel for the first half of 10,compared to $57.11 for the first half of 09. In its July Short-Term Energy Out-

    look, the Energy Information Administration projects the WTI spot price, whichended June near $76 per barrel, will average $79 per barrel over the second half of10 and $83 per barrel in 11.

    The Friday closing spot market price of Henry Hub natural gas averaged $4.80 perMMBtu for the first half of 10, compared to $4.08 for the first half of 09. In its

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    July Short-Term Energy Outlook, the agency forecasts the Henry Hub spot price toaverage $4.70 per MMBtu in 10 and $5.17 in 11.

    ____________________________________

    The Greater Houston Partnership is the primary advocate of Houstons business communityand is dedicated to building regional economic prosperity.

    Visit the Greater Houston Partnership on the World Wide Web at www.houston.org.Contact us by phone at 713-844-3600.

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    August 2010 2010, Greater Houston Partnership

    Houston Economic Indicators

    A Service of the Greater Houston Partnership

    Most Year % Most Year %

    Month Recent Earlier Change Recent Earlier Change

    ENERGY

    U.S. Active Rotary Rigs June '10 1,531 896 70.9 1,428 * 1,139 * 25.4

    Spot Crude Oil Price ($/bbl, West Texas Intermediate) June '10 75.24 69.83 7.7 77.91 * 51.77 * 50.5

    Spot Natural Gas ($/MMBtu, Henry Hub) June '10 4.82 3.72 29.6 4.15 * 3.72 * 11.6

    UTILITIES AND PRODUCTION

    Houston Purchasing Managers Index June '10 55.6 43.5 27.8 57.6 * 42.1 * 36.8Nonresidential Electric Current Sales (Mwh, CNP Service Area) June '10 4,334,779 4,379,772 -1.0 23,880,000 23,417,237 2.0

    CONSTRUCTION

    Total Building Contracts ($, Houston MSA) June '10 807,469,000 940,171,000 -14.1 4,450,558,000 4,405,880,000 1.0

    Nonresidential June '10 372,985,000 457,672,000 -18.5 1,705,643,000 2,056,155,000 -17.0

    Residential June '10 434,484,000 482,499,000 -10.0 2,744,915,000 2,349,725,000 16.8

    Building Permits ($, City of Houston) June '10 316,146,383 405,603,929 -22.1 1,650,911,210 2,049,582,396 -19.5

    Nonresidential June '10 214,397,061 327,650,118 -34.6 1,076,618,238 1,600,239,816 -32.7

    New Nonresidential June '10 57,082,115 173,806,368 -67.2 348,975,126 573,656,214 -39.2

    Nonresidential Additions/Alterations/Conversions June '10 157,314,946 153,843,750 2.3 727,643,112 1,026,583,602 -29.1

    Residential June '10 101,749,322 77,953,811 30.5 574,292,972 449,342,580 27.8

    New Residential June '10 83,323,104 54,089,231 54.0 440,108,475 329,925,250 33.4

    Residential Additions/Alterations/Conversions June '10 18,426,218 23,864,580 -22.8 134,184,497 119,417,330 12.4

    Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Activity

    Closings June '10 6,593 6,332 4.1 32,102 29,110 10.3

    Median Sales Price - SF Detached June '10 159,700 164,500 -2.9 152,288 * 147,192 * 3.5

    Active Listings June '10 53,934 45,989 17.3 49,148 * 45,206 * 8.7

    EMPLOYMENT (Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA)

    Nonfarm Payroll Employment June '10 2,526,600 2,542,900 -0.6 2,506,100 * 2,557,200 * -2.0

    Goods Producing (Natural Resources/Mining/Const/Mfg) June '10 476,900 495,400 -3.7 473,300 * 510,200 * -7.2

    Service Providing June '10 2,049,700 2,047,500 0.1 2,032,800 * 2,047,000 * -0.7

    Unemployment Rate (%) - Not Seasonally Adjusted

    Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA June '10 8.8 8.0 8.6 * 6.9 *

    Texas June '10 8.5 8.6 8.3 * 7.5 *

    U.S. June '10 9.6 9.7 9.9 * 9.0 *

    Unemployment Insurance Claims (Gulf Coast WDA)

    Initial Claims June '10 23,729 28,120 -15.6 22,449 * 26,982 * -16.8

    Continuing Claims June '10 108,819 150,163 -27.5 109,619 * 126,462 * -13.3

    TRANSPORTATION

    Port of Houston Authority Shipments (Short Tons) June '10 3,448,962 2,886,101 19.5 19,123,164 18,249,204 4.8

    Air Passengers (Houston Airport System) June '10 4,538,752 4,465,449 1.6 24,143,096 23,662,358 2.0

    Domestic Passengers June '10 3,764,338 3,728,819 1.0 19,999,674 19,847,475 0.8

    International Passengers June '10 774,414 736,630 5.1 4,143,422 3,814,883 8.6Landings and Takeoffs June'10 72,892 76,899 -5.2 421,988 438,474 -3.8

    Air Freight (000 lb) June '10 74,601 63,616 17.3 430,738 365,947 17.7

    Enplaned June '10 38,702 33,844 14.4 226,112 196,422 15.1

    Deplaned June '10 35,899 29,772 20.6 204,626 169,525 20.7

    CONSUMERS

    New Car and Truck Sales (Units, Houston MSA) June '10 20,994 16,598 26.5 122,011 103,515 17.9

    Cars June '10 9,345 7,672 21.8 55,813 46,129 21.0

    Trucks, SUVs and Commercials June '10 11,649 8,926 30.5 66,198 57,386 15.4

    Total Retail Sales ($000,000, Houston MSA, NAICS Basis) 3Q09 18,738 20,136 -6.9 53,679 59,150 -9.3

    Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers ('82-'84=100)

    Houston-Galveston-Brazoria CMSA June '10 194.734 192.325 1.3 192.468 * 190.017 * 1.3

    United States June '10 217.965 215.693 1.1 216.735 * 214.658 * 1.0

    Hotel Performance (Harris County)

    Occupancy (%) Dec '09 45.5 57.5 60.2 * 70.1 *

    Average Room Rate ($) Dec '09 108.44 118.29 -8.3 116.79 * 126.58 * -7.7

    Revenue Per Available Room ($) Dec '09 49.38 68.06 -27.4 70.30 * 88.79 * -20.8

    POSTINGS AND FORECLOSURES

    Postings (Harris County) July '10 4,092 4,466 -8.4 26,974 22,325 20.8

    Foreclosures (Harris County) July '10 1,252 1,278 -2.0 7,839 6,310 24.2

    YEAR-TO-DATE

    TOTAL OR AVERAGE*MONTHLY DATA

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    Sources

    Rig Count Baker Hughes IncorporatedSpot WTI, Spot Natural Gas U.S. Energy Information AgencyHouston Purchasing Managers National Association ofIndex Purchasing Management

    Houston, Inc.Electricity CenterPoint EnergyBuilding Construction Contracts McGraw-Hill ConstructionCity of Houston Building Permits Building Permit Department, City

    of HoustonMLS Data Houston Association of RealtorsEmployment, Unemployment Texas Workforce Commission

    Port Shipments Port of Houston AuthorityAviation Aviation Department, City of

    HoustonCar and Truck Sales TexAuto Facts Report,InfoNation,

    Inc., Sugar Land TXRetail Sales Texas Comptrollers OfficeConsumer Price Index U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsHotels PKF Consulting/Hospitality Asset

    Advisors InternationalPostings, Foreclosures Foreclosure Information & Listing

    Service

    STAY UP TO DATE!

    If you would like to receive this electronic publication on the first working day of each month, please e-mail your request for Economy at a Glanceto [email protected]. Include your name, title and phonenumber and your companys name and address. Archivedcopies are available to Partnership Membersin the Members Only section at www.houston.org. For information about joining the Greater HoustonPartnership and gaining access to this powerful resource, call Member Services at 713-844-3683.

    The foregoing table is updated whenever any data change typically, 11 or so times per month. Iyou would like to receive those updates by e-mail, usually accompanied by commentary, please e-maiyour request for Key Economic Indicatorsto [email protected] the same identifying information

    You may request Glanceand Indicatorsin the same e-mail.

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    HOUSTON MSA NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (000)Change from % Change from

    Jun ' 10 May ' 10 Jun '09 May '10 Jun '09 May '10 Jun

    Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs 2,526.6 2,526.0 2,544.0 0.6 -17.4 0.0

    Total Private 2,148.7 2,135.6 2,180.0 13.1 -31.3 0.6

    Goods Producing 476.9 473.9 495.4 3.0 -18.5 0.6

    Service Providing 2,049.7 2,052.1 2,048.6 -2.4 1.1 -0.1

    Private Service Providing 1,671.8 1,661.7 1,684.6 10.1 -12.8 0.6

    Mining and Logging 89.1 87.9 86.7 1.2 2.4 1.4

    Oil & Gas Extraction 50.9 50.1 48.5 0.8 2.4 1.6

    Support Activities for Mining 37.2 36.8 37.2 0.4 0.0 1.1

    Construction 167.4 167.3 183.7 0.1 -16.3 0.1

    Manufacturing 220.4 218.7 225.0 1.7 -4.6 0.8

    Durable Goods Manufacturing 140.8 139.2 144.0 1.6 -3.2 1.1Nondurable Goods Manufacturing 79.6 79.5 81.0 0.1 -1.4 0.1

    Wholesale Trade 127.3 127.0 131.7 0.3 -4.4 0.2

    Retail Trade 261.4 259.7 262.2 1.7 -0.8 0.7

    Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities 119.0 118.4 123.1 0.6 -4.1 0.5

    Utilities 16.6 16.5 16.7 0.1 -0.1 0.6

    Air Transportation 24.0 23.8 24.7 0.2 -0.7 0.8

    Truck Transportation 18.6 18.4 19.1 0.2 -0.5 1.1

    Pipeline Transportation 8.9 8.9 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.0

    Balance, incl Warehousing, Water & Rail Transport 50.9 50.8 53.9 0.1 -3.0 0.2

    Information 32.9 32.8 34.9 0.1 -2.0 0.3

    Telecommunications 17.7 17.6 18.1 0.1 -0.4 0.6

    Finance & Insurance 86.1 86.1 88.5 0.0 -2.4 0.0

    Real Estate & Rental and Leasing 51.3 50.9 51.5 0.4 -0.2 0.8

    Professional & Business Services 351.9 349.3 359.0 2.6 -7.1 0.7

    Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 169.5 168.0 174.9 1.5 -5.4 0.9Legal Services 23.2 22.9 23.4 0.3 -0.2 1.3

    Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping 15.7 15.5 16.9 0.2 -1.2 1.3

    Architectural, Engineering & Related Services 60.2 59.4 61.2 0.8 -1.0 1.3Computer Systems Design & Related Services 23.7 23.8 24.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4

    Admin & Support/Waste Mgt & Remediation 162.3 161.1 164.6 1.2 -2.3 0.7Administrative & Support Services 154.6 153.4 156.3 1.2 -1.7 0.8

    Employment Services 51.3 50.6 54.0 0.7 -2.7 1.4

    Educational Services 42.4 43.1 41.3 -0.7 1.1 -1.6

    Health Care & Social Assistance 263.9 263.0 254.9 0.9 9.0 0.3

    Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 31.3 29.8 31.5 1.5 -0.2 5.0

    Accommodation & Food Services 210.8 209.2 212.3 1.6 -1.5 0.8

    Other Services 93.5 92.4 93.7 1.1 -0.2 1.2

    Government 377.9 390.4 364.0 -12.5 13.9 -3.2

    Federal Government 35.9 40.1 28.9 -4.2 7.0 -10.5State Government 69.3 71.2 67.1 -1.9 2.2 -2.7State Government Educational Services 36.1 38.1 33.6 -2.0 2.5 -5.2

    Local Government 272.7 279.1 268.0 -6.4 4.7 -2.3Local Government Educational Services 184.6 191.8 182.1 -7.2 2.5 -3.8

    SOURCE: Texas Workforce Commission

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    INTERNATIONAL

    (000,000,12MONTHS

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    DOMESTIC

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    HOUSTON AIRPORT SYSTEM PASSENGER VOLUMES1985 - 2011

    DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL Source: Houston Airports System

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    12-MONTHCHANGE(000)

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    HOUSTON MSA EMPLOYMENT2001-2011

    12-MONTH CHANGE JOBS Source: Texas Workforce Commission

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    1.60

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    (000)

    GOODS-PRODUCING AND SERVICE-PROVIDING EMPLOYMENTHOUSTON MSA 2001-2011

    GOODS-PRODUCING JOBS SERVICE-PROVIDING JOBS

    Source: Texas Workforce Commission

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    PERCENTOF

    LABOR

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    UNEMPLOYMENT RATEHOUSTON & U.S. 2001-2011

    HOUSTON U.S. Source: Texas Workforce Commission

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    HENRYHUBNATURALGAS($/MMBTU)

    WESTTEXASINTERMEDIATE($/BBL)

    SPOT MARKET ENERGY PRICES2001 - 2011

    WTI MONTHLY WTI 12-MO AVG GAS MONTHLY GAS 12-MO AVG Source:U.S. Energy Information Administration

    -3%

    -2%

    -1%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

    INFLATION: 12-MONTH CHANGE2001-2011

    HOUSTON CPI-U U.S. CPI-U Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


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