How an Urbanizing Population is Affecting Change in China’s Real
Estate MarketA view through the lens of 30 years of project work
17th Annual Fisher Center Real Estate Conference
Anita RothSenior Economist, AECOM
[email protected]@anitaroth12
1 2 3 4Overview
Introduction Facts & Figures
Our Work Development Trends
1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4
Cepolina.com Infoseekchina.com
1 2 3 4
Wildchina.com Thefakechina.com
1 2 3 4Pearl River Delta (1979)
NASA Earth Observatory
1 2 3 4
NASA Earth Observatory
Pearl River Delta (2003)
1 2 3 4Total Population (2011/12)
1.4 billion ~313 millionChina (2011) US (2012)
China’s population is
4.3 times the size of the U.S.’s
1 2 3 4
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20100.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
Perc
ent G
row
th (%
)
Population Growth Rate
0.52%
0.84%
1.47%
1.13%
Population Growth RateChina
U.S.
1 2 3 4China’s Population (2011)
1.4 billionChina (2011)
1 2 3 4Urban Population
>50% urban (690 million)
26%
Compared with…
In 1990
1 2 3 4Urban Population
in urban areas >1 million 18%
(240 million)
45%(140 million)
Compared with…
In the U.S.
1 2 3 4GDP Growth Rate
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
2010
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0Pe
rcen
t Gro
wth
(%)
GDP Growth Rate
10.4%
3.0%3.8%
1.9%
8.2%Expected in 2012
China
U.S.
1 2 3 4GDP (nominal)
$7.3 trillion (US$)China (2011)
China’s nominal GDP is
48% that of the U.S.’s
$15.1 trillion (US$)US (2011)
1 2 3 4Real Estate Market as % of GDP
12%(US$710 billion)
Real Estate contribution to GDP
1 2 3 4AECOM – Who we areAECOM 1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4
Architecture Building EngineeringWater
Design + Planning Environment
Transportation
Energy
Program + Construction Mgmt. Government Services
AECOM – Who we are
1 2 3 4Working in China
>30 years of working on projects in China
1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4Working in China
>30 years of working on projects in China
15 years with offices in China
1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4Working in China
>30 years of working on projects in China
15 years with offices in China
11 offices in China
1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4Working in China
>30 years of working on projects in China
15 years with offices in China
11 offices in China
~ 4,000 staff in China
1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4AECOM’s Work in China
1 2 3 4Main Drivers of Development
Economic
PoliticalRegulatory
Development
1 2 3 4
major trends in AECOM’s project work in China*6
*Disclaimer: None of these trends are really TRUE!
1 2 3 4
Increase in tourism-oriented
development
Increase in demand for economic
services
Increase in client sophistication
Increased public sector involvement
Increase in urban infill projects
Increase in mixed use
development
Notable Trends
1 2 3 4Increase in Urban Infill Projects
Suzhou Region, Jiangsu Province
1
1 2 3 4Increase in Public Sector Involvement
2
1 2 3 4Increase in Mixed Use
3
1 2 3 4Increase in Client Sophistication
4
1 2 3 4Increase in Demand for Economic Services
游客市场分析接待过夜游客人数
俄罗斯35%
新加坡11%
韩国7%
马来西亚6%
日本6%
美国5%
德国4%
其他 25%
过夜外国人游客20
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
海外游客 国内游客
市场观察 借镜旅游饭店接待过夜游客的人数当中有重复计算的问题 AECOM公司估计 2010年游客总人数约为 860万国内游客占总体市场 97％，当中约 50％是随团前往 铜鼓岭主题公园应以国内团为主要目标市场亚洲游客占外国人市场一大部分 ,他们也是主题公园的重要组成部分
铜鼓岭主题公园可集中推广到亚洲市场
5
1 2 3 4Increase in Tourism-oriented Development
6
1 2 3 4
Increase in tourism-oriented
development
Increase in demand for economic
services
Increase in client sophistication
Increased public sector involvement
Increase in urban infill projects
Increase in mixed use
development
Notable Trends
1 2 3 4Is there a Real Estate Bubble?
1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4GDP per Capita (PPP)
$8,382(US$)China (2011)
China’s Per capita GDP (PPP) is
17%that of the U.S.’s
$48,386 (US$)US (2011)
