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!!!
Oliver!Kaplan,!Ph.D.!The!Korbel!School!of!Interna9onal!Studies!
!!!
!h>p://mysite.du.edu/~okaplan2!!
!1!
How$Communi*es$Use$Nonviolent$Strategies$$to$Avoid$Civil$War$Violence$
Interna9onal!Center!for!Nonviolent!Conflict!!
Webinar!January!30,!2013!
The!Puzzle!!
• Do#non%violent#strategies#provide#protec2on#against#heavily#armed#violent#actors?#
• “Culture!of!Peace”:!What!is!it?!How!does!it!work?!
• The!goal!of!nonUviolent!strategies!during!conflicts!– Autonomy:!local!decisionUmaking!and!selfUrule!
– Stay!out!of!conflicts!– Isolate!“extremists”!
• Civilian!strategies!are!difficult!to!document!and!analyze—they!are!the!“dogs!that!don’t!bark”!
The!Challenge!of!Civilian!Strategies!
• Humanitarian!interven9ons!are!rare!and!weak!
• Individuals!face!danger!confron9ng!belligerents!• Civilians!face!a!free!rider!problem:!
– All!want!protec9on,!but!taking!ac9on!is!dangerous!• The!public!good!of!community!protec9on!is!
underUprovided!
• Even!if!all!residents!have!pacifist!preferences!they!may!be!afraid!to!act!and!need!reassurance!
Outline!
I. Introduc9on!to!nonUviolence!during!conflict!
II. Theories!of!violence!III. Inventory!of!community!protec9on!strategies!
IV. Comparing!strategies!
V. Logics!of!armed!actor!responses!
VI. Conclusion!
I.!Introduc9on!to!NonUviolence!!
During!Conflict!
!• The!breadth!of!nonUviolent!movements!
• The!role!of!community!coopera9on!and!
organiza9on!
Compara9ve!Examples!of!!
Civilian!Autonomy!in!Civil!War!!
6!
Source:!!Author’s!coding!
Cases!of!collec9ve!ac9ons!for!protec9on!in!civil!conflicts!
Colombia!
Philippines!
Afghanistan!
Russia!
Mexico!
Vietnam!
Congo!
Mozambique!
!
The!Power!of!Organiza9on!
• Lone!individuals!are!vulnerable!• Community!organiza9on!helps!civilians!cooperate:!
– Formal!peace!organiza9ons!
• “Peace!Zones”,!“Peace!Communi9es”,!“Humanitarian!
Spaces”,!etc.!
– Informal!organiza9ons!leveraged!for!protec9on!
• Village!councils,!economic!coopera9ves,!religious!
ins9tu9ons,!etc.!
Organiza*on$!$Strategies$!$$Violence$!
PreUexis9ng!Organiza9ons!
How!Coopera9on!and!Organiza9on!!
Helps!Civilians!
1. DecisionUmaking!capacity!
2. Informa9on!management!
3. Collec9ve!memory!and!learning!
4. Implement!collec9ve!strategies!and!advocacy!
5. Resilience!to!threats!!
9!
Which!Organiza9ons!Ma>er?!
• Some!organiza9ons!provide!civilians!with!be>er!prospects!to!deal!with!violence!than!others!
• Certain!organiza9onal!characteris9cs!enhance!capacity,!limit!spoilers,!and!help!avoid!retalia9on!
!Helpful!organiza9onal!characteris9cs:!!
!DecisionUmaking!
!Legi9mate!
!Broad!in!coverage!
!Apoli9cal!(?)!
10!
II.!Why!Are!Civilians!Killed?!
• Genocide!and!“draining!the!sea”!(Valen9no)!• Rebel!indiscipline!and!abuse!(Weinstein)!
• Collateral!damage!
• Selec9ve!targe9ng!(Kalyvas)!– Coerce!support!through!fear,!by!zones!of!control!– Mechanism!of!denuncia9ons!of!enemy!collaborators!
to!armed!groups!
11!
!!!Civilian!organiza9onal!mechanisms!primarily!!
!!!solve!problems!of!selec9ve!violence!
!
III.!Inventory!of!NonUviolent!Strategies!
1. Dispute!resolu9on!(local!harmony)!
2. Propagate!norms!of!nonUpar9cipa9on!
3. Informa9on!and!policing!of!collaborators!
4. Protest!and!reputa9on!effects!5. Early!warning!systems!
12!
“Weapons!of!the!Weak”!for!conflict!semngs!
Types!of!Protec9on!Strategies!
• Subtle!“weapons!of!the!weak”!– Managing!communi9es!
– Indirect!influence/!armed!actors!unaware!
• Overt!protest!– Direct!interac9ons!with!armed!actors!(dialogue)!
– Direct!ac9ons!against!armed!actors!(protest)!
• Alterna9ves!to!nonUviolent!autonomy!strategies!
– Do!nothing/!displace!– Arming!
1.!Dispute!resolu9on!(local!harmony)!
• Armed!groups!prey!on!disputes!and!divisions!to!
exert!their!authority!
• Harmonious!rela9ons!among!residents!mean!
fewer!disputes!breakUout!
• Civilians!can!ac9vely!resolve!disputes!among!
residents!and!block!armed!group!inroads!
• Example:!Local!Coordina9ng!Commi>ees!in!Syria!
2.!Norms!of!nonUpar9cipa9on!
and!nonUviolence!
• Promote!ideologies!of!pacifism,!nonUviolence,!
nonUpar9cipa9on!in!the!conflict!
• Peaceful!resolu9on!of!disputes!• Manage!and!incen9vize!behavior!of!residents!
to!avoid!armed!groups!
• Alterna9ve!ac9vi9es!to!joining!armed!groups!
• Limit!recruitment!to!and!manpower!for!armed!
groups!
Banning!weapons!!
in!the!Philippines!
3.!Dialogue!and!the!“inves9ga9ons”!mechanism!!
1. Violence!is!costly!to!both!armed!groups!and!communi9es!
2. Civilian!organiza9ons!can!use!advantages!in!local!informa9on!to!iden9fy!enemy!collaborators!for!armed!groups!
3. Armed!groups!value!this!informa9on!because!policing!defec9on!is!difficult!
4. This!limits!violence!in!two!ways:!
!i.!!Keeps!armed!groups!from!mistakenly!killing!nonUdefectors!
!!!!!!!ii.!!Increases!costs!to!civilians!for!aiding!armed!groups!
18!
Example:!The!Peasant!Workers!Associa9on!of!the!Carare!!(ATCC!in!Colombia;!Kaplan,!Oliver.!Journal#of#Peace#Research,!May!2013)!!
Mul9Usport!courts:!Mee9ng!Places!in!Colombia!
4.!Protest!and!Reputa9on!Effects!
• Impose!costs!on!armed!actors!and!draw!outside!a>en9on!to!deter!violence!– Declara9ons!of!neutrality!!– Dialogue,!moral!appeals,!rhetorical!traps!!
– “Go!public”!to!denounce!aggression!and!abuses!and!shame!armed!actors!
– Threat!of!protest!– Mass!nonUviolent!manpower!and!unarmed!guards!
• Accompaniment!from!NGOs!and!external!actors!
!
!!Even!sta9ng!neutral!inten9ons!of!communi9es!can!be!viewed!as!hos9le!(e.g.,!peace!communi9es)!
Marching!Against!Violence!
Protest!and!Reputa9on!Effects!
Examples:!!
• Nasa!indigenous!group!of!Colombia!
• Villages!in!Afghanistan!
5.!Early!Warning!Systems!
• Informa9on!networks!to!provide!early!warning!of!combat!to!avoid!violence!
– Convince!armed!actors!to!fight!outside!the!boundaries!of!civilian!se>lements!
– Temporary!displacement!or!shelter!residents!un9l!figh9ng!has!subsided!
• May!be!set!up!within!the!community!or!through!dialogues!with!combatants!
• Examples:!Congo,!Syria,!Colombia!
IV.!Comparing!Strategies!
• Determinants!of!strategic!choice!
– Conten9ousness!of!strategies!• Organiza9onal!requirements!
• Costs!imposed!on!armed!actors!
• Risks!of!armed!actor!retalia9on!
– Ideas!and!cultural!predisposi9ons!for!par9cular!approaches!
Conten9ousness!of!NonUviolent!Strategies!
•!Organiza9on!requirements!!
increasing!in!conten9ousness!
!
•!Costs!on!armed!groups!!
increasing!in!conten9ousness!
!
•!Risk!of!retalia9on!!
increasing!in!conten9ousness!
!
! Does!greater!conten9ousness!!yield!greater!protec9on?!
Displace!
Ally!!
Dispute!resolu9on!(local!harmony)!
Early!warning!systems!
Norms!of!nonUpar9cipa9on!
Inves9ga9ons!mechanism!!Bar!arms!and!armed!groups!!Protest!and!reputa9on!effects!
Armed!resistance!
!
Conten*ousness$of$Civilian$Strategy$Low$$
High$
V.!Logics!of!Armed!Actor!Responses!
• Fewer!inroads!to!communi9es!and!fewer!resources!
• Moral!considera9ons!– Ending!an!en9re!village!and!a>acking!organiza9ons!mean!greater!“moral”!costs!
• Rhetorical!traps!and!inconsistencies!with!rebel!ideologies!• Reputa9on!with!observers!(harder!to!achieve!objec9ves)!
– Local!(broader!popula9on!and!other!villages)!– Interna9onal!backers!– Military!may!be!drawn!to!region!
• “Not!worth!the!marginal!gains”!to!a>ack!organized!villages!
• Fissures!within!armed!groups!about!uses!of!violence!
Hybrid!Armed!Groups!
Opportunis9c!!
abusers!
Controlled!zone!
Contested!zone!
Contesta9on!
Hybrid!groups!are!both!mo9vated!to!use!violence!
and!may!be!suscep9ble!to!civilian!strategies!
Ideological!!
‘angels’!
Resource!bases!
VI.!Conclusion!
• Civilians!exercise!agency!even!in!hos9le!semngs!
• Community!organiza9on!and!coopera9on!facilitates!diverse!non%violent#protec9on!strategies!
• Strategies!have!the!highest!odds!of!success!when!adapted!to!communi9es,!coopera9on!levels,!conflict!condi9ons,!and!types!of!threats!
– Inves9ga9ons!(selec9ve!violence)!vs.!protest!(abuse)!• NonUviolent!strategies!may!entail!risks!
• Analyze!condi9ons!for!success,!armed!actor!mo9va9ons,!and!likely!responses!
Thank!You!