How Competitive is the Match? · Reproduction prohibited without the written permission of the...

Reproduction prohibited without the written permission of the NRMP.

Mona M. SignerPresident and CEONovember 13, 2016

How Competitive is the Match?


Main Residency MatchPGY-1 Positions Offered and Filled

6,015 More Positions Since 2007

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Offered Filled Filled US Seniors

+ 567 PGY-1 positions over 2015

All In Policy


Active Applicants162 More Seniors, 571 More Active Applicants

7,532 More Applicants Since 2007

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Others DOs IMGs US IMGs Prior US Grads US Seniors

All In Policy


2,856

158

1,5221,260

589

-63

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

US Senior US Grad USIMG DO IMG Other

PGY-1 Matches by Applicant TypeChange Since 2007


PGY-1 Match Rates by Applicant TypeOverall 2016 Match Rate: 75.6%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

US Seniors

Osteopathic Physicians

US IMGs

Prior US GradsIMGs

All In Policy


Average Length of U.S. Seniors’ ROLsMatched and Unmatched Applicants

5.62

7.11

8.9

11.97

02468

10121416

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Unmatched Matched


7175 76 77 79

85

89 89 8991 91 93 96 96 96 96 96 97 97 98 99

77

89

77 75 76

83

91 89

71

9194

9197

9097 94

88

98 96 95 98

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2014 2016

Match Rates By Preferred SpecialtyMost Seniors Match!

Source: Charting Outcomes in the Match


Unmatched Seniors, PGY-1 Positions in SOAP

More Unmatched Seniors than PGY-1 Positions = 4 Years

1,130

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

975PGY-1 Positions in SOAP

U.S. Seniors With ROLs Unmatched to PGY-1

Positions

1,331

1,005

SOAP


Preferences of Unmatched Seniors Available SOAP Positions

33556799999141516222428

4851

9371

7383

102116

169

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

OtherChild Neurology

Thoracic SurgeryTransitional Year

Radiation OncologyRadiology-Diagnostic

Vascular SurgerySurgery-Preliminary (PGY-1 Only)

PathologyInternal Medicine-Pediatrics

Internal Medicine (PGY-1 Only)Physical Medicine & Rehab

AnesthesiologyNeurology

Plastic SurgeryDermatology

OtolaryngologyPediatrics

Neurological SurgeryInternal Medicine (C & M)

Obstetrics-GynecologyFamily Medicine

PsychiatryEmergency Medicine

General SurgeryOrthopaedic Surgery

Available PositionsPreferred Specialty


SOAP PositionsAccepted by Applicant & Position Type

31 2 3 10 2

387

13 45 55 43

192

2038

6827

30

12

00

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

US Seniors US Grads USIMGs DOs IMGs

None Accepted PGY-1 Only PGY-2 Only Categorical PGY-1 & PGY-2

2,199

4,020 817 5,871995

989 applicants accepted 1,022 positions


U.S. Allopathic Seniors in SOAP2012 - 2016

1,816

605 600

337

2,076

595 602 591

2,050

609 623

506

2,142

653 645 606

2,199

665 666 615

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

SOAP Eligible Offers Accepted Unique Applicants With AnyOffers

No Position Post-SOAP*

SOAP 2012 SOAP 2013 SOAP 2014 SOAP 2015 SOAP 2016*Presentations before 2015 included only seniors with a certified ROL who did not have any position at the conclusion of SOAP, regardless of whether they participated in SOAP. This presentation includes all SOAP-participating seniors who did not have any position at the conclusion of SOAP.


Getting the Interview


Applications, Interviews, Ranks

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Vascular SurgeryChild Neurology

Thoracic SurgeryRadiation Oncology

Plastic SurgeryNeurological Surgery

Internal Medicine/PediatricsOtolaryngology

Physical Medicine and RehabilitationPathology-Anatomic and Clinical

Radiology-DiagnosticDermatology

Obstetrics and GynecologyNeurology

Orthopaedic SurgeryAnesthesiology

General SurgeryEmergency Medicine

Average for All SpecialtiesPsychiatryPediatrics

Family MedicineInternal Medicine Categorical

Applications Interview Invitations Applicants RankedSource: NRMP Program Director Survey


Average Percentage Applications Rejected

26%

32%

33%

25%

29%

37%

43%

32%

39%

49%

49%

44%

43%

48%

52%

50%

53%

51%

53%

54%

61%

60%

66%

26%

27%

29%

31%

33%

36%

39%

40%

41%

45%

46%

47%

48%

48%

49%

51%

52%

56%

58%

61%

61%

62%

68%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Radiation OncologyVascular Surgery

Plastic SurgeryOtolaryngology

DermatologyThoracic Surgery

Radiology-DiagnosticNeurological SurgeryEmergency Medicine

Physical Medicine and RehabilitationOrthopaedic Surgery

AnesthesiologyInternal Medicine/Pediatrics

NeurologyChild Neurology

Average for all specialtiesObstetrics and Gynecology

Pathology-Anatomic and ClinicalPediatricsPsychiatry

Internal Medicine CategoricalGeneral SurgeryFamily Medicine

2014 2016

Source: NRMP Program Director Survey


Percentage of Programs Citing Each Factor in Interview Selection

40%54%54%

56%58%58%59%

61%61%62%

64%66%66%

70%70%70%70%71%71%

78%79%

83%84%

88%93%

34%54%

61%48%

69%70%

56%57%

61%57%

56%63%63%

65%65%

61%

69%69%

78%70%

80%84%

86%94%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Applicant flagged with Match violation by NRMPVolunteer/extracurricular experiences

Awards/honors in clerkship in desired specialtyGraduate of highly-regarded U.S. medical school

Awards or special honors in clinical clerkshipsLack of gaps in medical education

Other life experiencePerceived interest in program

Alpha Omega Alpha (AOA) membershipPassing USMLE Step 2 CS/COMLEX Level 2 PE

Consistency of gradesAudition elective/rotation within your department

Leadership qualitiesPersonal prior knowledge of the applicant

Evidence of professionalism and ethicsGrades in clerkship in desired specialty

Any failed attempt in USMLE/COMLEXPerceived commitment to specialty

Class ranking/quartilePersonal Statement

Grades in required clerkshipsUSMLE Step 2 CK/COMLEX Level 2 CE score

Medical Student Performance EvaluationLetters of recommendation in the specialty

USMLE Step 1/COMLEX Level 1 score

2014 2016Source: NRMP Program Director Survey



Programs’ Use of the MSPEin Interview Selection

63%

70%

71%

73%

73%

78%

79%

80%

81%

83%

84%

84%

86%

88%

88%

90%

90%

91%

91%

92%

93%

93%

97%

62%

74%

70%

79%

81%

79%

91%

80%

76%

83%

87%

84%

87%

83%

85%

88%

90%

91%

83%

94%

74%

86%

95%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Plastic SurgeryOtolaryngology

Vascular SurgeryOrthopaedic SurgeryNeurological Surgery

General SurgeryEmergency Medicine

Family MedicineObstetrics and Gynecology

Thoracic SurgeryPediatrics

Average for all specialtiesAnesthesiology

Pathology-Anatomic and ClinicalNeurology

Physical Medicine and RehabilitationInternal Medicine Categorical

Radiology-DiagnosticDermatology

PsychiatryInternal Medicine/Pediatrics

Radiation OncologyChild Neurology

2014 2016Source: NRMP Program Director Survey


Scores Required?

31

68

1

32

67

10%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Yes, pass only Yes, targetscore

No

Consider applicants who fail 1st

attempt?

26

63

11

30

59

110%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Never Seldom Often2014 2016


Percentage of Programs Using USMLE Step 1 Scores for Interview Selection


2016 Median2014 Median2011 Median

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

2007 Median

Source: NRMP Data Warehouse and AAMC Data Warehouse.

Step 1 Scores Are RisingBy Preferred Specialty



31

50

19

34

49

17

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Yes, pass only Yes, targetscore

No

Percentage of Programs Using USMLE Step 2 CK Scores for Interview Selection

Scores Required? Consider applicants who fail 1st

attempt?

35

58

6

35

57

80%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Never Seldom Often

2014 2016 Source: NRMP Program Director Survey


2016 Median2014 Median2011 Median

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

2007 Median

Source: NRMP Data Warehouse and AAMC Data Warehouse.

Step 2 CK Scores Are RisingBy Preferred Specialty



57%

57%

58%

58%

59%

60%

64%

67%

67%

68%

72%

73%

78%

86%

90%

95%

95%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Grades in required clerkships

Personal statement

Audition rotation within department

Class rank

Leadership qualities

Personal prior knowledge of applicant

Perceived interest in program

Evidence of professionalism

Perceived commitment to specialty

MSPE

USMLE Step 2 CK/Comlex Level 2

Recommendation letters in specialty

USMLE Step 1/Comlex Level 1

Feedback from current residents

Interactions with housetaff during interview

Interpersonal skills

Interactions with faculty during interview

Factors in Ranking ApplicantsIt’s All About the Interview: 2016



18%19%20%21%21%22%

25%26%28%

32%34%36%38%40%41%41%

46%46%47%47%

50%53%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Other post-interview contactUSMLE Step 3/COMLEX Level 3 score

Away rotation in your specialtyFluency in patient-spoken language

Awards/honors in basic sciencesSecond interview/visit

Interest in academic careerVisa status

NRMP Match violationInvolvement in research

Gold Humanism Honor Society membershipAwards/honors in clinical clerships in desired…

Awards/honors in clinical clershipsVolunteer/extracurricular experiences

Lack of gaps in medical educationGraduate of highly-regarded U.S. allopathic…

Other life experiencesAlpha Omega Alpha

Consistency of gradesAny failed USMLE/COMLEX

Grades in clerkship in desired specialtyPassing USMLE Step 2 CS/Comlex Level 2

Factors in Ranking ApplicantsIt’s All About the Interview, cont’d



Average Ranks Per PositionFilled and Unfilled Programs

4.97

7.54

9.96

11.99

02468

10121416

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Unfilled Programs Filled Programs


9,600 more PGY-1 positions than active seniors in the Match

No change in U.S. seniors’ PGY-1 match rate No change in match rate by preferred specialty 1,130 seniors unmatched to PGY-1 positions 615 seniors with no position post-SOAP

2,400 DOs & 6,600 IMGs matched to PGY-1 positions No change in total number of unmatched applicants

in 2016 No change in percentage of applications rejected USMLE Step scores are rising ROLs are getting longer

How Competitive is the Match?


How do we help students target their applications?


Do you agree that*….

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Not enough PGY-1positions

Programs rely too muchon Step 1

MSPE should follow astandard format

Applicants need moreprogram-specific

information

Applicants need program-specific information about

matched applicants

Programs Schools

*Respondents who agree or strongly agree

Source: NRMP Residency Application Survey


Share Program-Specific Information?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Step 1 "cut score" Mean Step 1 score ofapplicants offered

interviews

Mean Step 1 score ofmatched applicants

Mean Step 2 score ofmatched applicants

Number of applicantsranked prior year

Programs willing to share information Schools would find information beneficial



Limit Number of ERAS Applications?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Yes, cap Yes, negative consequences for programs Yes, negative consequences for students

Programs Schools

*Respondents who agree or strongly agree



Anna Quindlen: Health Care in an Information Age Dr. Daniel Goleman: Emotionally Intelligent Healthcare in

Medical Education Dr. Kenneth Shine: Sustaining the Medical Education

Enterprise

Deadline for Breakout Session Proposals: November 30

Transition to Residency: Conversations Across the Medical Education Continuum

May 4-6, 2017www.nrmpconference.org


Broad Themes: Goodness of Fit: exploring the role of medical schools and

residency programs in addressing application overload Matching Process: using Match data to understand and inform

workforce planning Unmatched Applicants: examining outcomes and considering

alternatives to clinical medicine Innovations in Medical Education: evaluating the flexibility of the

Match in supporting competency-based curricula Single Accreditation System

Transition to Residency: Conversations Across the Medical Education Continuum

May 4-6, 2017


Like us on Facebook

Follow us on Twitter@TheNRMP

Follow us on LinkedIn

[email protected]

866-653-NRMP

http://www.facebook.com/TheNRMP

https://twitter.com/TheNRMP

Date post:	23-Aug-2020
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	0 times
Download:	0 times

How Competitive is the Match? · Reproduction prohibited without the written permission of the...

Documents