32
How Covid-19 has shaped future home buying trends in Northern Ireland Summer 2020
How Covid-19 has shapedfuture home buying trends
in Northern IrelandSummer 2020
PropertyPal: Covid-19 Survey - Summer 2020 | 2
INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 3
KEY FINDINGS ......................................................................................................................... 4
FIRST TIME BUYERS ............................................................................................................. 10
FirstTimeBuyersProfiling ............................................................................ 11
MainReasonsForBuyingAHome .............................................................. 12
DepositLevels ...................................................................................................... 13
AffordabilityAndPriceRange ....................................................................... 14
Covid-19:PotentialImpactOnHousePrices ........................................... 15
PropertyStyles .................................................................................................... 16
LocationPopularity ........................................................................................... 17
PropertyLocationPreferences ..................................................................... 18
PropertyFeaturePreferences ....................................................................... 19
HOME MOVERS ..................................................................................................................... 20
HomeMoversProfiling ................................................................................... 21
MainReasonsForBuyingAHome .............................................................. 22
AffordabilityAndPriceRange ....................................................................... 23
Covid-19:PotentialImpactOnHousePrices ........................................... 24
PropertyStyles .................................................................................................... 25
LocationPopularity ........................................................................................... 26
PropertyLocationPreferences ..................................................................... 27
PropertyFeaturePreferences ....................................................................... 28
CONTACT DETAILS .............................................................................................................. 29
OTHER PUBLICATIONS ..................................................................................................... 31
Contents
PropertyPal: Covid-19 Survey - Summer 2020 | 3
PropertyPal has carried out a survey of First Time Buyers and Home Movers in Northern Ireland to better understand how the impact of Covid-19 may shape the future of the local housing market.
Covid-19hascausedwidespreaddisruptiontoalmosteveryindustry.Intermsofthelocalhousingmarket,whenlockdownbeganinMid-March2020,itcametoanabruptstandstill.
Sincethestartoflockdown,we,atPropertyPal,havebeencloselytrackingourdatatogaugethetrueimpactonthehousingmarket.Althoughtherewasaninitial,sharpdeclineindemandinAprilandearlyMay,interestsoongrewstrongerthanever,aswereportedrecord-highwebsitevisitorandenquirylevels,evenbeforethelocalhousingmarketreopenedon15thJune.
Fromthisdata,itwasevidenttousthatthereremainedanengagementwiththepropertymarketandthatactivitywouldreboundwhenrestrictionswerelifted.However,wewantedtounderstandwhetheritwouldbebackto‘businessasusual’orlookingtowardsa‘newnormal.’
Bygettingdirectfeedbackfromouraudience,wecouldnotonlyassesslevelsofdemand,butalsogainabetterunderstandingofhowtheirthoughtsandprioritiestowardspurchasingpropertyhavechangedduringthepandemicandexperienceoflockdown.
From26thMayto2ndJune2020,wecarriedoutasurveyof1,502adults,ofwhich1,397werelocalFirstTimeBuyersandHomeMoversacrossvariousage
ranges,gender,householdincomeandemploymentstatus.Wehaveanalysedtheirresponsestoformaviewofwhatpeoplenowwantintermsofprice,location,housefeaturesandwheretheyseehousepricesgoinginthenextyear.
Thefollowingchaptersoutlinethesefindings,ofwhichsomeareprofound.For example, one in five people who intended to purchase a property in 2020 pre Covid-19 no longer intend to do so. However, in contrast, one in four of those who did not intend to buy a property in 2020 pre Covid-19, now intend to buy-meaningthereislittlechangeinthevolumeofprospectivebuyers.
Byaskingdirectlyaboutpropertypreferences,wenowknowthatconnectivityandinternetspeedshavebecomesignificantlymoreimportant,alongsidegardensandoutdoorspace.Newprioritiesshowit’smoreimportantforpeopletobeclosertotheirfamilyandhaveagoodsenseofcommunity.Incontrast,itisrelativelylessimportantthanlivingclosetospecificschoolsorbeingclosetopublictransport.
WehopethesefindingsprovidegreaterinsightintothethoughtsandfeelingsoflocalFirstTimeBuyersandHomeMovers.Wehavenodoubtthatitwillshapethedecisionsofmanyestateagents,developersandpropertyprofessionalswhenitcomestounderstandingandengagingwiththenewneedsoftheircustomers.
Introduction
First Time Buyers: PropertyPal Covid-19 - Survey Summer 2020 | 4
Key Findings
PropertyPal: Covid-19 Survey - Summer 2020 | 5
Intentions To Purchase: Pre & Post Covid-19
The net position is minimal change in the overall volume of prospective buyers.
We asked First Time Buyers and Home Movers whether they intendedto purchase a house before Covid-19 and whether they plan to later
this year once it is safe to view properties.
Of those who did not plan to buy before Covid-19;
now do plan on buying later this year.
Almost 1 in 4
Of those who planned to buy before Covid-19:
no longer plan on buying later this year.
Almost 1 in 5
Q
PropertyPal: Covid-19 Survey - Summer 2020 | 6
Personalfulfillment Security
Cheaperthanrenting Asset
Household decisions Personal fulfillment
32% 11%41%
30% 20%15% 14%14% 14%
75%intendtobuyaDetachedHome
intendtobuyaDetachedHome
intendtobuyaSemi-detachedHome
intendtobuyaSemi-detachedHome
1. 1.
2. 2.
3. 3.
Top 3 main reasons First Time Buyersand Home Movers want to buy a house.
Home Mover Property Styles
First Time BuyerProperty Styles
Belfast BelfastLisburn&Castlereagh
Ards&NorthDown
Antrim&Newtownabbey
Lisburn&Castlereagh
First Time Buyers HomeMovers
Top 3 Property Location Preferences
VS
PropertyPal: Covid-19 Survey - Summer 2020 | 7
Closetofamily
Privacy
Moreruralorcountryside
Homeoffice
Internet connectivity
Garden or outdoor space1.
2.
3.
Closetofamily
Homeoffice
Senseofcommunity
Privacy
Internet connectivity
Garden or outdoor space
1.
1.
2.
2.
3.
3.
8% 10%22% 14%Mass market appeal Mass market appeal
Budgets Budgets
arelookingatmoreaffordablehouses
arelookingatmoreaffordablehouses
arelookingatmoreexpensivehouses
arelookingatmoreexpensivehouses
Property Prices And The Covid-19 Impact On Budgets
Top 3 ‘more important’ preferencesfor property location.
Home MoverProperty Features
First Time BuyerProperty Features
£120k-£160k £200k-£250k
1.
2.
3.
First Time Buyers HomeMoversVS
PropertyPal: Covid-19 Survey - Summer 2020 | 8
Location Popularity
First Time Buyers are more interested in buying in urban areas whereas Home Movers are more interested in suburban areas
Ards & North DownFirst Time Buyers
10%Home Movers
14%
Antrim & NewtownabbeyFirst Time Buyers
14%Home Movers
14%
BelfastFirst Time Buyers
30%Home Movers
20%
Mid & East AntrimFirst Time Buyers
5%Home Movers
7%
Derry City & StrabaneFirst Time Buyers
3%Home Movers
3%
Causeway Coast & GlensFirst Time Buyers
6%Home Movers
6%
Fermanagh & OmaghFirst Time Buyers
3%Home Movers
2%
Mid UlsterFirst Time Buyers
4%Home Movers
4%
Armagh, Banbridge & CraigavonFirst Time Buyers
6%Home Movers
8%Newry, Mourne & Down
First Time Buyers
6%Home Movers
7%
Lisburn & CastlereaghFirst Time Buyers
15%Home Movers
14%
Derry City& Strabane
Causeway Coast& Glens
Fermanagh& Omagh
Mid Ulster
Mid & EastAntrim
Antrim &Newtownabbey
Belfast
Lisburn &Castlereagh
Armagh City,Banbridge & Craigavon
Newry, Mourne& Down
Ards &North Down
We asked First Time Buyers andHome Movers to tell us in which area they intend to purchase a property.
Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
Q
PropertyPal: Covid-19 Survey - Summer 2020 | 9
Covid-19: Potential Impact On House Prices
We asked First Time Buyers and Home Movers how they think house prices will change
in the next 12 months.
54%
14%
3%
ofthebuyerssurveyedthinkthatpropertypriceswilldecreaseby1-10%overthenext12months
ofthebuyerssurveyedthinkthattherewillbenochangeinpropertypricesoverthenext12months
ofthebuyerssurveyedthinkthatpropertypriceswillincreaseby1-10%overthenext12months
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Fall > 20%
Fall by 16 - 20%
Fall by 11 - 15%
Fall by 6 - 10%
Fall by 1 - 5%
No change
Rise by 1 - 5%
Rise by 6 - 10%
Rise by 11 - 15%
Rise by 16 - 20%
Rise > 20%
Q
%respondentsanswering
First Time Buyers: PropertyPal Covid-19 - Survey Summer 2020 | 10
First Time Buyers
First Time Buyers: PropertyPal Covid-19 - Survey Summer 2020 | 11
First Time Buyers Profiling
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
£250
,000+
£150
,000 - £
199,9
99
£100
,000 - £
149,9
99
£80,0
00- £
99,99
9
£60,0
00- £
79,99
9
£50,0
00- £
59,99
9
£40,0
00- £
49,99
9
£30,0
00- £
39,99
9
£20,0
00- £
29,99
9
£10,0
00- £
19,99
9
Under
£10,0
00HouseholdincomestatusofFirstTimeBuyerssurveyed
AgeprofileofFirstTimeBuyerssurveyed
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-6429% 57% 11% 3% 1%
69%
7%
6%
Full-time employment
On temporary furlough
Unemployed
Employment StatusKey Highlights
First Time Buyers: PropertyPal Covid-19 - Survey Summer 2020 | 12
Main Reasons For Buying A Home
60%
60%
54%
42%
33%
16%
11%
9%
5%
Cheaper than renting
Security
Asset
Wealthpreservation
Thesenseofstatus
Investmenttorentoutforprofit
Pressurefromparentsorfriends
Want control over household decisions(decorating, pets)
Personal fulfillment
We asked First Time Buyers what their main reasons were for
wanting to purchase a property.
Q
Respondents were given the option to choose multiple answers for this section of the survey.
First Time Buyers: PropertyPal Covid-19 - Survey Summer 2020 | 13
Have Deposits Been Impacted By Covid-19?Deposit Levels
43%
0%
£200
,000+
£175
,000 - £
199,9
99
£150
,000 - £
174,9
99
£125
,000 - £
149,9
99
£100
,000 - £
124,9
99
£95,0
00- £
99,99
9
£90,0
00- £
94,99
9
£85,0
00- £
89,99
9
£80,0
00- £
84,99
9
£75,0
00- £
79,99
9
£70,0
00- £
74,99
9
£65,0
00- £
69,99
9
£60,0
00- £
64,99
9
£55,0
00- £
59,99
9
£50,0
00- £
54,99
9
£45,0
00- £
49,99
9
£40,0
00- £
44,99
9
£35,0
00- £
39,99
9
£30,0
00- £
34,99
9
£25,0
00- £
29,99
9
£20,0
00- £
24,99
9
£15,0
00- £
19,99
9
£10,0
00- £
14,99
9
£5,00
0 - £9,9
99
Less
than
£4,99
9£0
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
53%
15%
15%
1%
16%
No impact - it’s the same
It has increased
It has decreased
I’macashbuyeranddonotneedadeposit
Idon’thaveadepositorcashsavings
ofFirstTimeBuyershaveadepositoflessthan£20,000
We asked First Time Buyers how much of a deposit they intend to have before buying a home.Q
First Time Buyers: PropertyPal Covid-19 - Survey Summer 2020 | 14
Affordability and Price Range
38%
29%
ofFirstTimeBuyersintendtobuyapropertyunder£140,000
ofFirstTimeBuyersintendtobuyapropertyover£180,000
0%
10%
£500
,000+
£400
,000 - £
499,9
99
£300
,000 - £
399,9
99
£250
,000 - £
299,9
99
£200
,000 - £
249,9
99
£180
,000 - £
199,9
99
£160
,000 - £
179,9
99
£140
,000 - £
159,9
99
£120
,000 - £
139,9
99
£100
,000 - £
119,9
99
Under
£100
,000
18%
16%
14%
12%
8%
6%
4%
2%
First Time Buyer BudgetsIn Light Of Covid-19
62%
22%
8%
8%
No change
are looking for more affordable properties
are looking at more expensive properties
areunsure
We asked First Time Buyers what their price range was for purchasing a home and the impact of Covid-19.Q
Does not sum to 100% due to 2% of prospective buyers answering ‘unsure’.
First Time Buyers: PropertyPal Covid-19 - Survey Summer 2020 | 15
QCovid-19: Potential Impact On House Prices
61%
10%
4%
ofFirstTimeBuyersthinkthatpropertypriceswilldecreaseby1-10%overthenext12months
ofFirstTimeBuyersthinkthattherewillbenochangeinpropertypricesoverthenext12months
ofFirstTimeBuyersthinkthatpropertypriceswillincreaseby1-10%overthenext12months
We asked First Time Buyers how they think house prices will change in the next 12 months.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Fall > 20%
Fall by 16 - 20%
Fall by 11 - 15%
Fall by 6 - 10%
Fall by 1 - 5%
No change
Rise by 1 - 5%
Rise by 6 - 10%
Rise by 11 - 15%
Rise by 16 - 20%
Rise > 20%
%respondentsanswering
First Time Buyers: PropertyPal Covid-19 - Survey Summer 2020 | 16
New Build vs ResalePreferenceProperty Styles
4% 15%4%intendtobuyan
Apartmentareunsureofwhatstyleofpropertytheywouldbuy
intendtobuyaTerracedHome
32% 5%41%intendtobuya
Semi-detachedHomeintendtobuya
BungalowintendtobuyaDetachedHome
Almost 3 in every 4 First Time Buyers intend to purchase a detached or semi-detached house 54%
18%
18%
11%
Either New Build or Resale
New Build
Resale
Unsure
We asked First Time Buyers which house type they intend to buy.Q
First Time Buyers: PropertyPal Covid-19 - Survey Summer 2020 | 17
Location Popularity
Ards & North Down
10%
Antrim & Newtownabbey
14%
Belfast
30%
Mid & East Antrim
5%
Derry City & Strabane
3%
Causeway Coast & Glens
6%
Fermanagh & Omagh
3%
Mid Ulster
4%Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon
6%Newry, Mourne & Down
6%
Lisburn & Castlereagh
15%
Derry City& Strabane
Causeway Coast& Glens
Fermanagh& Omagh
Mid Ulster
Mid & EastAntrim
Antrim &Newtownabbey
Belfast
Lisburn &Castlereagh
Armagh City,Banbridge & Craigavon
Newry, Mourne& Down
Ards &North Down
First Time Buyers are more interested in buying in urban areasWe asked First Time Buyers to
tell us in which area they intend to purchase a property.
Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
Q
First Time Buyers: PropertyPal Covid-19 - Survey Summer 2020 | 18
Property Location Preferences
39%
36%
27%
27%
21%
18%
15%
12%
10%
6%
Want to be close to family
Want a good sense of community
Proximitytolocalamenities
Wanttoliveinarurallocationorinthecountryside
Wanttobeclosetowork
Wanttobeclosetopublictransportlinks
Wanttobecloseto medicalfacilities
Wanttoliveinanurbanlocationorinatownorcity
Wanttobeclosetospecificschools
Want to be in an area of high internet speeds and mobile networks We asked First Time Buyers which features
of a property’s location have become‘more important’ in light of Covid-19.
Q
Respondents were given the option to choose multiple answers for this section of the survey.
First Time Buyers: PropertyPal Covid-19 - Survey Summer 2020 | 19
Property Feature Preferences
68%
40%
37%36%32%31%24%22%
13%
20%
13%
19%
12%
Home office
Privacy
Largekitchenorentertainingspace
Energyefficiency
Security
Driveway
Garage
Multiplereceptionrooms
Homegym
Morebedrooms
Utilityroom
Moderndecor
Garden or outdoor space
We asked First Time Buyers which property features have become
‘more important’ in light of Covid-19.
Q
Respondents were given the option to choose multiple answers for this section of the survey.
First Time Buyers: PropertyPal Covid-19 - Survey Summer 2020 | 20
Home Movers
Home Movers: PropertyPal Covid-19 Survey - Summer 2020 | 21
Home Movers ProfilingEmployment StatusKey Highlights
73%
5%
4%
Full-time employment
On temporary furlough
Unemployed
AgeprofileofHomeBuyerssurveyed
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+3% 44% 36% 14% 3% 1%
HouseholdincomestatusofHomeMoverssurveyed
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
£250
,000+
£150
,000 -£
199,9
99
£100
,000 -£
149,9
99
£80,0
00-£
99,99
9
£60,0
00-£
79,99
9
£50,0
00-£
59,99
9
£40,0
00-£
49,99
9
£30,0
00-£
39,99
9
£20,0
00-£
29,99
9
£10,0
00-£
19,99
9
Under
£10,0
00
Home Movers: PropertyPal Covid-19 Survey - Summer 2020 | 22
Main Reasons For Buying A Home
40%
26%
28%
21%
17%
17%
6%
5%
1%
Cheaperthanrenting
Personal fulfillment
Security
Asset
Wealthpreservation
Thesenseofstatus
Investmenttorentoutforprofit
Pressurefromparentsorfriends
Wantcontroloverhouseholddecisions(decorating,pets)
We asked Home Movers what their main reasons were for
wanting to purchase a property.
Q
Respondents were given the option to choose multiple answers for this section of the survey.
Home Movers: PropertyPal Covid-19 Survey - Summer 2020 | 23
17% ofHomeMoversintendtobuyapropertyover£300,000
We asked Home Movers what their price range was for purchasing a home and the impact of Covid-19.Q
Affordability and Price Range
ofHomeMoversintendtobuyapropertyunder£200,000
Home Movers BudgetsIn Light Of Covid-19
69%
14%
10%
6%
No change
are looking for more affordable properties
are looking at more expensive properties
areunsure
46%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
£500
,000+
£400
,000 - £
499,9
99
£300
,000 - £
399,9
99
£250
,000 - £
299,9
99
£200
,000 - £
249,9
99
£180
,000 - £
199,9
99
£160
,000 - £
179,9
99
£140
,000 - £
159,9
99
£120
,000 - £
139,9
99
£100
,000 - £
119,9
99
Under
£100
,000
Does not sum to 100% due to 2% of prospective buyers answering ‘unsure’.
Home Movers: PropertyPal Covid-19 Survey - Summer 2020 | 24
Covid-19: Potential Impact On House Prices
52%
16%
3%
ofHomeMoversthinkthatpropertypriceswilldecreaseby1-10%overthenext12months
ofHomeMoversthinkthattherewillbenochangeinpropertypricesoverthenext12months
ofHomeMoversthinkthatpropertypriceswillincreaseby1-10%overthenext12months
We asked Home Movershow they think house prices will change in the next 12 months.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Fall > 20%
Fall by 16 - 20%
Fall by 11 - 15%
Fall by 6 - 10%
Fall by 1 - 5%
No change
Rise by 1 - 5%
Rise by 6 - 10%
Rise by 11 - 15%
Rise by 16 - 20%
Rise > 20%
%respondentsanswering
Q
Home Movers: PropertyPal Covid-19 Survey - Summer 2020 | 25
Property Styles
6%1%areunsureofwhatstyleofpropertytheywouldbuy
intendtobuyaTerracedHome
11% 6%75%intendtobuya
Semi-detachedHomeintendtobuya
BungalowintendtobuyaDetachedHome
50%
27%
13%
9%
Either New Build or Resale
Resale
NewBuild
Unsure
2%intendtobuyan
Apartment
New Build vs ResalePreference
3 in every 4 Home Movers intend to purchase a detached house
We asked Home Movers whichhouse type they intend to buy.Q
Home Movers: PropertyPal Covid-19 Survey - Summer 2020 | 26
Location Popularity
More Home Movers are interested in buying in suburban areas
Ards & North Down
14%
Antrim & Newtownabbey
14%
Belfast
20%
Mid & East Antrim
7%
Derry City & Strabane
3%
Causeway Coast & Glens
6%
Fermanagh & Omagh
2%
Mid Ulster
4%Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon
8%Newry, Mourne & Down
7%
Lisburn & Castlereagh
14%
Derry City& Strabane
Causeway Coast& Glens
Fermanagh& Omagh
Mid Ulster
Mid & EastAntrim
Antrim &Newtownabbey
Belfast
Lisburn &Castlereagh
Armagh City,Banbridge & Craigavon
Newry, Mourne& Down
Ards &North Down
We asked Home Movers to tell us in which area they intend to
purchase a property.
Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
Q
Home Movers: PropertyPal Covid-19 Survey - Summer 2020 | 27
Property Location Preferences
34%
29%
28%
23%
19%
11%
10%
8%
8%
5%
Want to be close to family
Proximitytolocalamenities
Wantagoodsenseofcommunity
Wanttobeclosetowork
Wanttobeclosetopublictransportlinks
Wanttobeclosetomedicalfacilities
Wanttoliveinanurbanlocationorinatownorcity
Wanttobeclosetospecificschools
Want to be in an area of high internet speeds and mobile networks
Want to live in a rural locationor in the countryside
We asked Home Movers which features of a property’s location have become
‘more important’ in light of Covid-19.
Q
Respondents were given the option to choose multiple answers for this section of the survey.
Home Movers: PropertyPal Covid-19 Survey - Summer 2020 | 28
Property Feature Preferences
62%
41%
40%38%33%27%26%25%24%
15%
21%
11%
19%
Privacy
Home office
Largekitchenorentertainingspace
Energyefficiency
Garage
Security
Utilityroom
Driveway
Homegym
Morebedrooms
Moderndecor
Garden or outdoor space
Multiplereceptionrooms
We asked Home Movers which property features have become
‘more important’ in light of Covid-19.
Q
Respondents were given the option to choose multiple answers for this section of the survey.
First Time Buyers: PropertyPal Covid-19 - Survey Summer 2020 | 29
Contact Details
PropertyPal: Covid-19 Survey - Summer 2020 | 30
Jordan Buchanan: ChiefEconomist
JordanBuchananistheChiefEconomistatPropertyPal,actingasthespokespersonforthecompanyandatrustedsubjectmatterexpertonallUKandNorthernIrelandeconomicandhousingmatters.JordanisamemberoftheBoardofDirectorsinCo-Ownership,NorthernIreland’ssharedownershipprovider.
Anexperiencedeconomistandresearchprofessional,JordanhaspublishedextensiveanalyticalresearchonkeyissuesaffectingtheUKandNIeconomies.HisrecentworkincludesresearchonBrexitandothermacroeconomicrisks,thelabourmarketandthehousingsector.HeisskilledineconomicmodellingandalongsidecolleaguesintheUniversityofCambridge,hasdevelopedamacroeconomicforecastingmodeloftheUKeconomyandagravitytrademodeltoestimatetheeconomicimpactofBrexit.
JordanhasalsodevelopedeconomicforecastingmodelstounderstandfuturegrowthpatternsinNorthernIreland.JordanlecturedinEconomicsintheUlsterBusinessSchoolandisaregularcommentatoracrossarangeofmediaoutlets.
PropertyPal.comistheleadinglocalpropertyportal,listinghomesfrompropertyprofessionalsacrossNorthernIrelandandIreland.PropertyPalhasthelargestaudienceofhomemoversinNorthernIreland,withover100,000visitorstothewebsiteperday.
Contact Jordan
[email protected] @jbuchanan0707
PropertyPal.com
Follow us online
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@PropertyPal
PropertyPal
PropertyPal: Covid-19 Survey - Summer 2020 | 31
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