Photo Band: Photos go here if usedSScale photos to 1.75” height and place in this area.DELETE this placeholder.
How Demographic Shifts Will Affect San AntonioRCLCO Todd LaRue, Principal , [email protected] 9, 2012
ABOUT OUR FIRM
RCLCOServices Downtown/Corridor
a land use and real estate
Revitalization Affordable/Workforce
Housing Public/Private Partnership
St t i
economics firm providing market Structuring
Transit-Oriented Development
Economic & Fiscal Impact A l i
intelligence, strategy, and
implementation solutions
Analysis Smart Code Review Regional Visioning Consumer Research implementation solutions Campus Strategy Planning
and Development
AFCD1
OVERVIEW
Market Demand Factors
Changing Consumer Preferences
Demand for Transit Oriented DevelopmentDemand for Transit-Oriented Development
AFCD2
Changes in Market Demand
AFCD3
KEY DRIVERS OF DEMAND
• Economy – Jobs
D hi h• Demographic changes
• Housing market changes
• Housing finance changes
• Preference changesg
AFCD4
SHAPE OF THE RECOVERYM d t j b th i 2013Moderate job growth in 2013
Housing starts increase in 2013Lending standards improve 2013Boomers slowly returning the market 2012 2014Boomers slowly returning the market 2012 – 2014GenY impacts rental demand 2010 – 2015; for-sale 2015+
PEAK
NORMAL
2006
2001
TROUGHRECOVERY
2009 201020122011
2013
AFCD5
HOUSEHOLD TYPES ARE CHANGING
Household Type 1970 2000 2030With Children 45% 33% 27%Without Children 55% 67% 73%Single/Other 14% 31% 34%
AFCD6
SHARE OF HOUSEHOLD GROWTH2010 - 2020
Household Type AllWith Children 10%With Children 10%Without Children 90%Si l P 36%Single Person 36%
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah
AFCD7
DECLINING HOMEOWNERSHIP
Returning to historical norms? How much further homeownership declines depends on whether socioeconomics, underwriting conditions and attitudes about investing in homeownership return to their pre‐2000 levels. Ownership
AFCD8
rates could fall another 1% to 2%.
SOURCES: RCLCO, Claritas
GEN Y AND BABY BOOMERS:LARGEST MKT SEGMENTS NATIONALLY, SAN ANTONIO
Generation Born 2011 Age
2011 Pop
2011 % of
S.A. MSA2011
2011 % of S.A. Age Pop. Nation 2011
Pop. MSA
Eisenhowers Before 1946 65+ 41M 13% 220K 11%1946
Baby Boomers 1946 –1964 46 – 65 80M 26% 470K 23%
Gen X 1965 –1980 30 – 46 62M 20% 417K 21%
G Y (Mill i l ) 1981 – 11 30 85M 27% 603K 30%Gen Y (Millenials) 1981 1999 11 – 30 85M 27% 603K 30%
Gen Z (?) 2000 and After 0 – 11 42M 14% 322K 16%
AFCD9
AfterSOURCES: RCLCO; Claritas; National Center for Health Statistics
LIFE STAGE INFLUENCES NEW HOUSING DEMAND
Y Student Rental Rent As C l /
Young F il
Mature F il Buy 2nd
Empty Nester Buy
R tiYear Student Housing
RentalHousing Couple /
1st HomeFamily Own
Family Own
Buy 2nd Home
Nester Downsize
Own
RetireHome
2010 Gen Y Gen Y Gen X Gen X Baby B Baby B Baby B Eisen2010 Gen Y Gen Y Gen Y Gen X Baby B Baby B Baby B Baby B
2015 Gen Y Gen Y Gen Y Gen XGen Y
Baby BGen X
Baby BGen X Baby B Eisen
Baby B
2020 Gen YGen Z Gen Y Gen Y Gen Y Gen X Baby B
Gen XBaby BGen X Baby B
2025 Gen Z Gen YGen Z
Gen YGen Z Gen Y Gen X
Gen YGen XGen Y
Gen XBaby B Baby B
AFCD10
SOURCES: RCLCO
NOT JUST SIZE OF GENERATION THAT MATTERS:YOUNGER GENERATIONS MOVE MORE OFTEN
Percent of People that Moved 2010 ‐ 2011
21%
27%
p
21% 20%
10%
6%
Gen Z Gen Y Gen X Baby Boom Eisenhower
AFCD11
SOURCE: 2011 ACS
PREFERRED COMMUNITY TYPEIF YOU COULD CHOOSE WHERE TO LIVE, IN WHICH TYPE OF THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS WOULD YOU MOST LIKE TO LIVE?
11%
8%
City ‐ residential area
City ‐ downtown area
12%
28%
Suburb ‐ housing only
Suburb ‐mix of …
22%
18%
12%
Rural area
Small town
Suburb housing only
22%
0% 20% 40%
Rural area
Source: National Association of Realtors 2011.
AFCD12
WHERE DO DIFFERENT GENERATIONS WANT TO LIVE?
46% 47% 47%34% 25%
39% 38% 38%47%
42%
14% 15% 14% 18%31%
60 50 59 40 49 30 39 18 2960+ (Eisenhower)
50‐59 (BB)
40‐49 (BB & Gen X)
30‐39 (Gen X)
18‐29 (Gen Y)
City Suburban Small Town/RuralS 2011 N ti l C it P f S N ti l A i ti f R lt M h 2011
AFCD13
Source: 2011 National Community Preference Survey, National Association of Realtors, March 2011
HOUSING PRODUCT PREFERENCE BY GENERATION
8% 8%8% 8%5%
4%
15%8% 3% 8% 8%
6%
8% 8% 15%
78% 83% 84% 84%74%
60+ 50 59 40 49 30 39 18 2960+ (Eisenhower)
50‐59 (BB)
40‐49 (BB & Gen X)
30‐39 (Gen X)
18‐29 (Gen Y)
SFD SFA/TH Apt/Condo
AFCD14
/ p /Source: 2011 National Community Preference Survey, National Association of Realtors, March 2011
HOME SIZES GETTING SMALLER?
2,400
Median SF of Floor Area in New Single-Family Houses
2,000
2,200
1,600
1,800
1 200
1,400
1,000
1,200
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
AFCD1515
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
PRODUCT PREFERENCE BY LOCATION• Gen Y more open to MF products in all
locations than other generations• City
• More renters• MF, attached & small lot detached• 30% attached (towns, condo’s)
• Suburban• Dominated by SFD, small and large lot• 15% attached (towns, condo’s)
• Rural/Small Town• Single family on larger lots; some small lot
clustered single family with shared open space
AFCD16
• 8% attached (towns, condo’s)SOURCE: RCLCO
GEN Y WILL PAY FOR WALKABLE, MIXED-USECHALLENGE IS PROVIDING PRODUCT THEY CAN AFFORD
• Driven by convenience, connectivity, and a healthy work-life balance to maintain relationships
• 1/3 will pay more to walk to shops, work, and entertainment
• 2/3 say that living in a walkable community is important
• More than 1/2 of Gen Y would trade lot size for proximity to shopping or to workfor proximity to shopping or to work
• Even among families with children, one-third or more are willing to trade lot size and “ideal” homes for walkable, diverse communities
AFCD17
SOURCE: RCLCO Consumer Research
THE “SMART GROWTH GENERATION”GENERATION Y MAKING WALKABLE HOUSING CHOICES
3836SFD-Sm Lot
Product Type Preference Gen X vs. Gen Y%
For single family20
12
36
32
10
SFD Sm Lot
SFD-Lg Lot
TH
For single-family products, preference for smaller lot homes and high density SFA in concert with local
10
7
5
5
5
LR Condo
Apt
co ce ocavariations will influence design.
Alley-loaded parking b f t5
4
2
4
4
2
HR Condo
Patio/Cottage
Condo/RetailGen Y
becomes a safety issue – must be mitigated with a reimagining of the alleyway
1
1
2
1
1
L/W Unit
Plex
Gen Xalleyway
AFCD18
SOURCE: RCLCO Consumer Research
Changing Consumer Preferences for Smart Growth
AFCD19
TWO TYPES OF REAL ESTATESHIFT FROM SUBURB TO WALKABILITY, NATURE PRESERVE
68 % of respondents indicate that they currently live in a traditional suburban neighborhood, but only 50% indicate that they are most likely to choose type of 19 1%20%
25%
likely to choose type of neighborhood in their next home purchase
12.6%
19.1%
15%
20%
Instead, response data suggests increased preference for:
“Traditional Downtown”4.4%
7.6% 8.3%6.0%
5%
10%
• Traditional Downtown”• “Traditional Neighborhood
Development”• “Nature Preserve” 0%
5%
Traditional Traditional Nature
23% of 55+ respondents favoring small-lot single family detached
Downtown NeighborhoodDevelopment
(TND)
Preserve
Current Neighborhood Preferred Neighborhood
AFCD20
Current Neighborhood Preferred NeighborhoodSource: National Association of REALTORS, 2011, RCLCO
TWO TYPES OF REAL ESTATESHIFT FROM SUBURB TO WALKABILITY, NATURE PRESERVE
23% of respondents 55-59 years of age most likely to purchase small lot single85%
Preference for Single-Family Detached Home
most likely to purchase small-lot single family detached (14% of those 60+ and 13% of those 50-54 do, as well)
82%
75%
80%
85%
Family and pre-family buyers distributed between increased preference for townhome or condo products and custom homes
68%
65%
70%
75%
custom homes
Highest demand for real estate at two ends of the density spectrum55%
60%
50%Current Home
Future Desired Home
AFCD21
Home Source: National Association of REALTORS, 2011, RCLCO
Transit Oriented Development
AFCD22
WHAT DOES THE REALTORS SURVEY SAY?EXPLORING PREFERENCES FOR TRANSIT18. In deciding where to live, indicate how important it would be to you to have each of the following within an easy walk: very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not at all important RANDOMIZE a‐j AND PUT CODES ACROSS THE TOP
(Q18a) a. Schools(Q18b) b Grocery store(Q18b) b. Grocery store(Q18c) c. Pharmacy or drug store(Q18d) d. Doctors’ offices(Q18e) e. Cultural resources like libraries or theaters(Q )(Q18f) f. Recreational facilities like swimming, golf, or tennis(Q18g) g. A hospital(Q18h) h. (SPLIT SAMPLE COMBINED) Public transportation by (bus/rail)(Q18h_a) h. (SPLIT SAMPLE A) Public transportation by bus(Q18h_b) h. (SPLIT SAMPLE B) Public transportation by rail(Q18i) i. Restaurants(Q 8j) j Ch h h l f hi
AFCD23
(Q18j) j. Church, synagogue, or other place of worship Source: National Association of REALTORS, 2011, RCLCO
WHAT DOES THE SURVEY SAY?ONE QUARTER OF THE MARKET WANTS FIXED RAIL TRANSIT
23%
76%
Households with preference for Fixed Rail TransitHouseholds without preference for Fixed Rail Transit
AFCD24
Source: National Association of REALTORS, 2011, RCLCO
WHAT DOES THE SURVEY SAY?ONE QUARTER OF THE MARKET WANTS FIXED RAIL
22.5%2+ with Children
Preference by Household Type19.7%70+
Preference by Age Group
28.7%
21.8%
Single No Children
2+ No Children
25.9%
22.9%
21.9%
18-34
35-54
55-69
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Transit Preference Total Respondents
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Transit Preference Total Respondents
Preference byIncome Level
21.1%
21.4%
Mid
High
Preference by Income Level
25.7%
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Low
Note: Listed numbers are for S.A. MSASource: National Association of REALTORS,
AFCD25
Transit Preference Total RespondentsSource: National Association of REALTORS, 2011, RCLCO
WHAT DOES THE SURVEY SAY?PREFERENCES IN METRO AREAS WITHOUT RAIL TRANSIT
70%
Transit Preference Among Respondents in Metropolitan Areas with No Existing Rail Transit
50%
60%
30%
40%
0%
10%
20%
0%Low Mid High Low Mid High Low Mid High Low Mid High
18-34 35-54 55-69 70+
Single No Children 2+ No Children 2+ with Children
AFCD26
Source: National Association of REALTORS, 2011, RCLCO
WHAT DOES THE SURVEY SAY?PREFERENCES IN METRO AREAS WITH RAIL TRANSIT
70%
Transit Preference Among Respondents in Metropolitan Areas with Existing Rail Transit
50%
60%
30%
40%
0%
10%
20%
0%Low Mid High Low Mid High Low Mid High Low Mid High
18-34 35-54 55-69 70+
Single No Children 2+ No Children 2+ with Children
AFCD27
Source: National Association of REALTORS, 2011, RCLCO
Photo Band: Photos go here if usedSScale photos to 1.75” height and place in this area.DELETE this placeholder.
Demographic Shifts for San AntonioRCLCO Todd LaRue, Principal , [email protected] 9, 2012
