Trade and Poverty in Rural Africa
The role of nutrition, population dynamics, and farm productivity
William A. MastersPurdue University
www.agecon.purdue.edu/staff/masters
Woodrow Wilson Center -- April 15, 2005
• physical capital– livestock– soils!
• human capital– nutrition– children
• social capital– networks (as opposed to markets)– conflict (as opposed to
cooperation)
How do African farmers respond to shocks?
Investment rates depend on bothprices and productivityFertilizer Use (N+P+K), 1961-2002
1
10
100
1000
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
kg
pe
r h
a o
f a
rab
le l
an
d
. RestWorldE&SEAsiaSouthAsiaSSAfrica
Consumption levels have fallen
to be among the world’s lowestData and projections on childhood underweight,
1995-2015
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 MDG
Africa Asia Lat. Am. &Caribbean
DevelopingCountries
World
Trends, projections and MDGs for prevalence of underweight children under 5, 1995-2015
Perc
en
t o
f c
hild
ren
Source: UN Standing Committee on Nutrition (2004), Fifth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. New York: UN SCN.
Note: Data show estimated percentage of children aged 0-5 who areunderweight, defined as <2 s.d. below median NCHS weight for age.
Attribution of disease burden to major risk factors(estimates for high-mortality developing countries, 2000)
Attribution of di sease burden to major risk factors in high mortality developing countries
Risk factor % DALYs Disease or injury % DALYs Underweight 14.9 HIV/AIDS 9.0 Unsafe sex 10.2 Lower respiratory infections 8.2 Unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene 5.5 Diarrhoeal diseases 6.3 Indoor smoke from solid fuels 3.7 Childhood cluster diseases 5.5 Zinc deficiency 3.2 Low birth weight 5.0 Iron deficiency 3.1 Malaria 4.9 Vitamin A deficiency 3.0 Unipolar depressive disorde rs 3.1 Blood pressure 2.5 Ischaemic heart disease 3.0 Tobacco 2.0 Tuberculosis 2.9 Cholesterol 1.9 Road traffic injury 2.0
Notes: Arrows are roughly proportional to attribution rates. Risk factors and diseases associated with under - nutrition are in italics. The selected risk factors cause diseases in addition to those relationships illustrated, and additional risk factors are also important in the aetiology of the diseases illustrated. Data shown are totals for the 69 countries defined by the WHO as having both high child mortality and high adult mortality, which includes all 46 countries of Sub - Saharan Africa. Source: WHO (2002), World Health Report 2002, Annex Table 14 (p. 232). Available online at www.who.int.
Undernutrition is the developing
world’s leading cause of ill-health
Source: FAO (2004), The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2004. Rome, FAO.
Stunting by residence and wealth
The rural poor are particularly undernourished
Average Governance Ratings by Region, 1996-2002
-2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
OECD
Eastern Europe
Lat.Am.&Carib.
East Asia
M.E.&N.Africa
Fmr.Sov.Union
South Asia
S.-Sah. Africa
Average of Six Indicators (-2.5 to +2.5)
1996199820002002
Note: Data show n are average of survey data and other indicators reflecting six underlying aspects of national governance: Voice and Accountability; Political Stability and Absence of Violence; Government Effectiveness; Regulatory Quality; Rule of Law ; and Control of Corruption.Source: D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay, and M. Mastruzzi (2003), "Governance Matters III: Governance Indicators for 1996–2002," World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3106. Data available online at w w w .w orldbank.org/w bi/governance.
Poverty is closely linked to institutions and social capital
Food-crop output has been a key difference between Africa
and AsiaFood output per capita by region, 1961-2003
75
100
125
150
175
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
FA
O i
nd
ex v
alu
e, 1
961=
100
.
E&SEAsiaSouthAsiaRestWorldSSAfrica
Nonfood farm output/capita by region, 1961-03
75
100
125
150
175
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
FA
O i
nd
ex v
alu
e, 1
961=
100
.
E&SEAsiaSouthAsiaRestWorldSSAfrica
Rural Population Growth by Region, 1950s-2020s
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
1950
-60
1960
-70
1970
-80
1980
-90
1990
-200
0
2000
-201
0
2010
-202
0
2020
-203
0
Ru
ral
po
p.
gro
wth
rat
e
. (
per
cen
t p
er y
ear)
SSAfricaE&SEAsiaSouthAsiaRestWorld
More and more Africans have no choice but to be
farmers
…and Africa’s fertility transition
is unusually slowChild Dependency by Region, 1950-2015
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010No
. of
ch
ildre
n (
0-1
4)
pe
r a
du
lt (
15
-64
)
.
AfricaAsiaRest of the World
Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision . Available online at <http://esa.un.org/unpp>.
Average cereal yields by region, 1961-2004
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Ave
rag
e ce
real
yie
lds
(mt/
ha)
RestWorldE&SEAsiaSouthAsiaSSAfrica
To raise food-crop productivity,
Africa has a lot of catch-up to do
The pace of farm productivity growth
is driven by new-variety adoptionAdoption of new varieties (pct. of cropped area)
80%
62%
42%
13%
52%
39%
23%
8%
26%
1%4%
12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1970 1980 1990 1998
Asia
Lat.Am.
SSAfrica
Public Research Expenditure per Unit of Land, 1971-91(1985 PPP dollars per hectare of agricultural land)
0
1
2
3
4
Sub-Saharan Africa All Developing Countries All Developed Countries
…and new varieties come from public R&D investment
R&D levels vary across countries but have not grown over time
Agricultural R&D Intensity in Africa, 1971-2001
0
1
10
100
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Pu
blic
R&
D (
19
93
US
$/p
er
ha
of
ara
ble
lan
d)
MauritiusCape VerdeBotsw anaSw azilandNamibiaSouth AfricaSenegalMalaw iZimbabw eMaliRw andaKenyaCote d'IvoireMauritaniaGuineaGhanaBurundiLesothoZambiaTogoBurkina FasoMadagascarNigerTanzaniaUgandaNigeriaEthiopiaSudan
R&D has varied but high payoffs
Source: Alston, J.M., M.C. Marra, P.G. Pardey, and TJ Wyatt. 2000. "Research returns redux: A meta-analysis of the returns to agricultural R&D." Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 44(2): 185-215.
Estimated return to agricultural research and extension (%/year)
…and sustaining sufficient public investment has been
difficult!
USAID Funding for Research and Extension Activities in Africa
0
20
40
60
80
100
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
US Fiscal Year
Cu
rren
t U
S D
olla
r (M
illio
ns) Extension
Research
Total AKIS
•The value of successful food-crop techniques spreads widely among low-income people
– Private firms can’t recover costs– Donors have difficulty contracting for
appropriate R&D or dissemination efforts•…but welfare gains can be measured, so
donors could pay innovators after adoption– payments can be proportional to gains– innovators can choose what data to submit– secretariat can spot-check and certify
accuracy
New funding mechanismsmay be helpful
•.
Conclusions
•To facilitate trade for the poorest people, local food-crop productivity must rise
– To improve nutrition, health and schooling– To free resources for other things
•African farmers face unusual obstacles– Including much less of the public R&D
needed to generate appropriate new varieties
•Donors can and do fund R&D programs directly, but contracting is difficult
– A proposd way to facilitate investment is at: www.earth.columbia.edu/cgsd/prizes